Heat-Bobcats Summary

(Note: Data compiled from box scores at http://www.basketball-reference.com)

Best Plus Minus: Lebron James (+38 in 158 minutes). Much like last year's 1st round Heat series, there isn't a lot to take from this plus-minus data. Every Heat unit seemed to best the Bobcats' units, so no one really stands out. The most interesting thing that Lebron did on the court was maybe look at MJ, although he's confirmed that he didn't.

Worst Plus Minus: Kemba Walker (-34 in 153 minutes). If it's possible for a player to gain national respect during a 4 game sweep, I think Kemba did it. It wasn't long ago that some people were trying to prove Kemba could even play in the league, and look at his play against the two time champs: efficient scoring, decent playmaking, and quite a few eye-opening plays. Hopefully Charlotte doesn't follow its prior pattern of drafting point guards in the lottery every few years...there's a keeper already on the roster.

Series MVP: Josh McRoberts (Net +34 in 153 minutes). It's a testament to the fit between player, scheme, and team that McRoberts is in this spot. His career previous to Charlotte only offered hints of the floor-spacing, part-time point forward he's been as a Bobcat. His market value will be difficult to gauge, but I could argue that his on court production won't be better than it was in Charlotte if he leaves.

Series LVP: Dwyane Wade (Net -41 in 133 minutes). Just like I said for Lebron, there's nothing to take from the plus-minus data for the Heat. The most important thing for Wade is that he looked healthy for the overwhelming majority of the four games, and that's the only thing that matters for him going forward.

Reverse Jerome James Award: Rod Higgins and Rich Cho. In June of 2012, when people were scratching their heads about the Mike Dunlap hire, I mused about the real questions to answer regarding the roster. Fast forward two years, and it's time to give credit where credit is due.

• hired Steve Clifford as head coach
• signed Al Jefferson for 3 years, $40.5mm (averaged 22-11 this season in 73 games)
• traded Hakim Warrick for Josh McRoberts (averaged 9 pts, 4 reb, 4 ast, 36% 3PT)
• traded Corey Maggette for Ben Gordon and Detroit's 1st round draft pick (coming this year or next)

While anyone can poke holes in the draft picks a team didn't make, the rest of the roster management has been undeniably good. Relative to the Bobcats' last trip to the playoffs, the future looks notably brighter. 

The NBA's Best Scorer: 2014 Edition

2011 Edition (Dirk Nowitzki)
2012 Edition (Kevin Durant)
2013 Edition (Lebron James)

Once again, it's time to identify the best scorers in the NBA, and crown one of them as the best of the best. A quick refresh of the criteria for eligibility:

• Must have played more than 41 games with a team.
• Must have ranked among the league leaders in attempts (free throws and shots) per game.

Without further ado, here's the 2014 crop (click for a better view).

(Note: in the NBA.com shotcharts below, green regions are above average, yellow regions are average, and red regions are below average.) 

1. STEPHEN CURRY 

Throughout the season, I've felt the gushing over Curry's late game exploits got a little over the top. And I was 100% wrong. Not only is he deadly from pretty much every spot behind the arc, he's not Reggie Miller running through screens. With only 2.5 catch and shoot threes per game, he's generating the other 5+ himself (as opposed to his Splash Brother, 2nd in the league in catch and shoot 3's attempted). Combine that with efficient shot-making ability from all over the floor, and you get the best scorer in the NBA this season.

2. LEBRON JAMES

Having never really looked at a Lebron James shotchart before, it's interesting to note where he takes his shots. As opposed to Curry or Durant, there are spots on the floor that he hasn't scored efficiently from. And yet, he's an extremely efficient overall player. Half of his shots are taken near the charge circle, where he converts a ridiculous 75%. His limited work from the corner threes looks surgical. This is the handiwork of someone who's in full mental command of what's happening on the court, and methodically hunts the shots he wants, not what the defense dictates.

3. KEVIN DURANT

Durant's shot distribution is eerily even among the three basic areas of the court: 1/3 near the rim, 1/3 from beyond the arc, and 1/3 in between. It seems like the best way to guard KD over the past few years was to run him off a jumpshot, and make him drive. Well, now he's scoring on 59% of his drives, which means he might be as close to unguardable on a single possession as exists in the NBA. He's just too tall and smooth to stop him from getting a jumper off, and he is making people pay for years of crowding him with a smaller defender. 

OTHER NOTES

• Everyone has spent a lot of time talking about Durant's play without Westbrook, but Dwyane Wade only played 8 more games than Westbrook this year. And, if he can score the way he did in the regular season, Miami will be tough to beat 4 out of 7 times. Again.
• It's been a wild ride for Paul George, but for the overall season, he took on a larger scoring burden with no dropoff in efficiency. Maybe he actually is making a leap... I mean, he's 23.
• Kyrie Irving was truly one of the more efficient scorers in the league in the last two years. This year, he's closer to John Wall and Russell Westbrook than the top. Given what the other two bring to the table in terms of play-making and defense, not sure he's on par with them at the moment. However, Wall also got a max extension that people questioned last summer, and no one is questioning it now.
• Evan Turner's career year resurgence in Philly looks more like unapologetic gunning by the numbers. My question for Indiana remains the same in the playoffs: for a team that struggles to generate spacing and score, can Evan Turner solve the latter while not helping the former?

PLAYOFF PREDICTION

Since I've been so good at calling the champ the past three years (2011 - Heat, 2012 - Lakers, 2013 - Heat), why wouldn't I try again? Since I'm already on record as skeptical of the Heat regardless of what they did this season, I'm going with the Thunder. The only team I think could give them serious trouble is the Clippers.

2014 Early Entry Analysis: Deadline Decisions

With the NCAA tournament over, college basketball players and other NBA draft hopefuls have little time to make a life-altering decision. Despite several sources of "information", it's difficult to find any reliable data. With that in mind, I've tried to look at this from the perspective of the best, publicly available information: the mock drafts of DraftExpress and NBADraft.net as of today.

The past three years (2011-2013 NBA Drafts), I've written this post using the mock drafts available at the time (post-tournament, pre-deadline), not at the beginning of the season or the week before the draft. This way, it's a true(r) representation of the imperfect information that's out there. What have the past three years shown about how useful my typical tiers are?

1. PROJECTED LOTTERY PICKS ARE VERY LIKELY TO BE DRAFTED IN THE 1ST ROUND.

In the last three years of NBA drafts, 33-40 players have chosen to enter the draft that were projected as a lottery pick by one or two of the mock drafts. All of those players ended up being drafted in the 1st round, and at least 80% of them ended up lottery picks. They may not have signed for as much money as they hoped, but they were signing guaranteed rookie contracts.

2. PROJECTED 1ST ROUND PICKS OUTSIDE THE LOTTERY ARE MEANINGFULLY LESS LIKELY TO BE DRAFTED IN THE 1ST ROUND.

For the players that went into the draft as projected 1st round picks outside the lottery, the chances of falling out of the 1st round are much higher. While this idea is easily accepted without digging into data, consider the magnitude: for every three players that thought they were a mid-teens to late 1st round pick based on a mock draft, one of them fell to the 2nd round. That is a very real risk to consider.

3. BEING IN BOTH MOCK DRAFTS MATTERS, ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE THE LOTTERY.

Again, this seems like an intuitive point, but the magnitude is significant. Being a lottery pick on both mock drafts means seven out of eight guys will go in the lottery, versus four out of five going with only one site. Outside the lottery, being in both mock 1st rounds meant that a player significantly reduced the chance of falling out of the 1st round altogether.

Now, the sample size (three years) isn't nearly big enough to point to anything as a definitive trend, but at a minimum, it should indicate that the concept of this post is at least pointed in the right direction. Unless you're the type of person that says mock drafts have no value whatsoever, in which case, there's nothing I can say to change your mind. Now, without further ado, on to the (new and improved) tiers...

TIER 1. LOTTERY PICKS (LIKELY 1ST ROUNDERS) 

Despite all the hand-wringing over the top prospects, the consensus lottery picks (shaded in blue) are pretty familiar names to most people that look at potential draftees throughout the college basketball season. The non-consensus guys are the typical mix of international prospects that may or may not come out, and prospects with diverging opinions. Based on the last three years, these guys have a good shot of going in the lottery, and a very good shot of going in the 1st round if they enter the draft. It's also of note that despite the roller-coaster season Marcus Smart had as sophomore relative to his breakout freshman year, his standing as a mid-to-high lottery pick does not appear to be affected at this point.  

TIER 2. POSSIBLE 1ST ROUND PICKS.

For guys in this group, the potential for falling out of the 1st round is real. As a result, they are probably considering a few factors with regard to coming out this year: 1) the quality of their individual prospects next year; 2) the quality of their team prospects next year; 3) remaining work towards graduation; and 4) any personal situations that prioritize a professional career sooner rather than later. For some guys, the decision to come out is already made, but for others, this is a very difficult call. I would simply echo the following: seven guys on this list are projected as "consensus" 1st round draft picks. If recent history holds, then it's likely that one (or more) of those seven players falls out of the 1st round.  And, including both tiers, there are 35 projected 1st round picks, and only 30 actual 1st round picks. 

2013 Edition

2012 Edition

2011 Edition