Last Year's NBA Draft Strategy
The NBA draft is almost here. That means it's time to sum up all the college tape, combine measurements, and pre-draft workouts, and pick players. Given the Bobcats' current (and potential) picks, and since NBA GM's will face the repercussions of their picks for years, it's only fair to put up some picks against theirs.
#2 Pick (or #4 Pick)
IDEAL PICK: ANDRE DRUMMOND.
I would be happy with either Drummond or Robinson. Reasonable minds can certainly differ on the risk-reward of each guy, and what the Bobcats need to rebuild their team as of today. I lean slightly towards Drummond because of overall potential, and a more favorable view of his work ethic and demeanor than others. Having said that, I'd have no problems with Robinson, I think they both have legitimate chances at being All-NBA level performers. The only guy who probably shouldn't by Charlotte specifically is Barnes, not because of ability, but because of the obstacles inherent in another UNC player playing in Charlotte.
Other Acceptable Picks (in order of preference): Thomas Robinson, Harrison Barnes, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
#24 (assuming Cleveland trade goes through)
IDEAL PICK: QUINCY MILLER
My fondness for Miller has been documented previously, and think the tremendous upside warrants a selection. Jeff Taylor's athleticism, motor, and intangibles translate to a borderline starter at SF (strong defense at 2 or 3, 3 point shooting, transition finishing) with a floor of rotation player. I can see both being good picks, but I'd roll the dice with Quincy, and hope that year 2 of his ACL recovery reveals the lottery talent most believe is lurking in that body.
Other Acceptable Picks (in order of preference): Jeff Taylor, Evan Fournier, trading for a 1st rounder next year
#31
IDEAL PICK: TONY WROTEN.
First off, if any of the previous three guys are still available, take them here immediately. But, if they're not... not many 6-5, athletic freshmen point guards last this long in the draft. There are certainly reasons for that: bad shooting stroke, difficulty driving and finishing to the right, defensive lapses, etc. This is more of an upside pick (Barton a little less so), but a big point guard with his natural abilities would be a great asset if harnessed correctly. And, to be honest, I'd rather roll the dice with either Wroten or Barton than take a swing with the plethora of undersized college 2 guards that are certain to be available (John Jenkins, Doron Lamb, Kim English)
Other Acceptable Picks (in order of preference): Will Barton, Kyle O'Quinn
A final thought: looking at each of the three picks above, two common themes emerge: positional versatility and significant upside. The Bobcats shouldn't be going anywhere in the next 1-2 years, and the long term competitiveness of the franchise doesn't need to be undermined for prospects more ready to contribute tomorrow. All three of the 2nd place picks (Robinson, Taylor, Barton) are a trade-off of ceiling versus bust potential. Given the state of the Bobcats roster, and the talent available at these spots, these picks seem like reasonable risks to take.
Wednesday, June 27, 2012
Friday, June 22, 2012
Heat Thunder Summary
Best Player / Most Valuable Player: Dwyane Wade (Individual +35, Net +18). Lebron will deservedly get most of the credit for this series. But the numbers point to his sidekick as top dog in the Finals. His overall numbers (22 ppg, 6 rpg, 5 apg, 44% FG pct) are a slight uptick from the regular season. His ball-handling, particularly finding openings in the pick-and-roll, were a key to the series win. But there's a part of this that numbers can't capture: last year, Wade got the Jerome James award for, in part, holding James back in the Finals. One year later, it looks like he helped unleash him, and willingly took the sidekick role for the good of the team.
Worst Player / Least Valuable Player: Serge Ibaka (Individual -23, Net -12). Serge Ibaka is a great defensive talent. In my opinion, he's going to make another jump in offensive skill over the next 1-2 years. But, playoff series are about matchups. Ibaka's strengths (help-side shot blocking, occasional mid-range jumpers) were negated by the Heat (passing around the help defense, driving directly at the shot-blocker). His shortcomings (no low post offense, inconsistent rotations) were exploited at critical points in several games. As Thunder fans debate whether Ibaka or Harden deserve the last big contract OKC can afford to pay, I'll go with consensus and say Ibaka is the better long term fit. But this series was not his moment to shine.
Reverse Jerome James Award: Erik Spoelstra. When Lebron, Wade, and Bosh came together, the obvious assumption was that all that talent would easily steamroll the league. Based on that, Spoelstra was essentially handed a no-win situation in the eyes of public perception. Winning was a foregone conclusion, right? Well, 12 out of 20 ESPN experts picked the Thunder to win this series. The fact is, the three assumed weaknesses of the Heat (hero ball offense, weak roster outside the Big 3, poor clutch play) were each reversed in this series:
- 90 assists on 178 field goals (51%) versus OKC's 79 assists on 183 field goals (43%)
- Miami's other guys outscored OKC's other guys by 41 points in 5 games
- 3 point lead with 1:47 left in Game 2 (won); 1 point lead with 1:30 left in Game 3 (won); tie game with 3:15 left in Game 4 (won)
He's never going to get a ton of credit, but Coach Spo did what few thought could be done as recently as two weeks ago. He won a title with the 2012 Miami Heat.
Worst Player / Least Valuable Player: Serge Ibaka (Individual -23, Net -12). Serge Ibaka is a great defensive talent. In my opinion, he's going to make another jump in offensive skill over the next 1-2 years. But, playoff series are about matchups. Ibaka's strengths (help-side shot blocking, occasional mid-range jumpers) were negated by the Heat (passing around the help defense, driving directly at the shot-blocker). His shortcomings (no low post offense, inconsistent rotations) were exploited at critical points in several games. As Thunder fans debate whether Ibaka or Harden deserve the last big contract OKC can afford to pay, I'll go with consensus and say Ibaka is the better long term fit. But this series was not his moment to shine.
Reverse Jerome James Award: Erik Spoelstra. When Lebron, Wade, and Bosh came together, the obvious assumption was that all that talent would easily steamroll the league. Based on that, Spoelstra was essentially handed a no-win situation in the eyes of public perception. Winning was a foregone conclusion, right? Well, 12 out of 20 ESPN experts picked the Thunder to win this series. The fact is, the three assumed weaknesses of the Heat (hero ball offense, weak roster outside the Big 3, poor clutch play) were each reversed in this series:
- 90 assists on 178 field goals (51%) versus OKC's 79 assists on 183 field goals (43%)
- Miami's other guys outscored OKC's other guys by 41 points in 5 games
- 3 point lead with 1:47 left in Game 2 (won); 1 point lead with 1:30 left in Game 3 (won); tie game with 3:15 left in Game 4 (won)
He's never going to get a ton of credit, but Coach Spo did what few thought could be done as recently as two weeks ago. He won a title with the 2012 Miami Heat.
Tuesday, June 19, 2012
How Odd is the Mike Dunlap Hire?
The Charlotte Bobcats have hired Mike Dunlap as their head coach. The decision is surprising for multiple reasons:
Gut Reaction: "This is a crazy hire. He has no experience."
Reasonable Question: "How does Dunlap's experience compare to other recent NBA hires?"
The majority of NBA coaches hired are re-treads, guys who have already been head coaches somewhere. In fact, 19 of the 29 current head coaches in the league had prior experience as head coach of an NBA team. (Incidentally, most coaches get fired because they weren't doing well: Randy Wittman's prior head coaching experience included a 0.32 win pct in over 300 games before getting hired to coach the Wizards).
Nine other NBA head coaches had NBA assistant coach as their best relevant experience. Of those guys, experience ranges from 10+ years (Tom Thibodeau, Larry Drew, Spoelstra), 5-10 years (Monty Williams, Scott Brooks, Gregg Popovich, Tyrone Corbin), and less than five years (Kaleb Canales, Mike Dunlap). Bottom line: Dunlap's NBA experience is on the light end of the spectrum, but he's definitely not the least experienced. That honor has to go to either Canales or Mark Jackson (no previous coaching experience at the college or NBA level).
Gut Reaction: "If we weren't getting a veteran coach, we should hire the big-name young talent."
Reasonable Question: "Were the other coaches better candidates?"
The results here are surprising. Quin Snyder's resume (outside of college) included 3 years as a head coach in the D-League, and one year as an NBA assistant as his most recent job. That job experience is identical to the resume of Sam Vincent prior to his ill-fated hiring as the Bobcats' coach.
Brian Shaw has certainly paid his dues as an assistant, and the pedigree of the Phil Jackson coaching tree (Triangle offense included) is certainly tempting. But he's not the only Jackson assistant coach to look for a head coaching gig. Kurt Rambis was also an assistant under Phil for years, and was hired by Minnesota to bring the Triangle offense to the T-Wolves in 2009. After two years and 32 combined wins, he was fired. And failure is not confined to Jackson disciples. John Kuester was an assistant coach who had paid his dues in the league. After the Cavaliers' 2009 season, he was a hot commodity. But after 2 years coaching the Pistons (29 wins per year), he was fired. The hot young coaching prospect does not always pan out immediately, particularly with young teams short on talent.
Gut Reaction: "The Bobcats knocked themselves way off track with this hire."
Reasonable Question: "Does this hire fit within the Bobcats' rebuilding plan?"
No two rebuilding plans are exactly the same. Indiana re-tooled their roster with savvy trades and nice draft picks in the middle of the 1st round. The Clippers swapped part of their young core for a current superstar. The Thunder tore down and rebuilt around a ludicrously young core, patiently waiting for them to grow.
Regardless of which plan is the Bobcats, the overwhelming likelihood is that if the roster looks like it can win, the coach will turn over before the roster. It happened with Jim O'Brien in Indiana (fired), Mike Dunleavy with the Clippers (fired), Lebron's first head coach (Paul Silas - fired), Derrick Rose's (Vinny Del Negro - fired), Chris Paul's (Byron Scott - fired), Dwight Howard's (Brian Hill - fired), Carmelo Anthony's (Jeff Bzdelik - fired)... Incidentally, most of those coaches were fired within 3 years of their respective superstar's arrival, and prior head coaching experience didn't save their jobs.
At the end of the day, here are the facts: Mike Dunlap has been hired for 2 years, with an option for a 3rd. He is light on experience relative to other hired NBA coaches. Regardless of his resume, no one really knows how he's going to do as a head coach, for better or worse. And, in all honesty, who gets added to this roster is probably twice as important as who's coaching them at this point. Bobcats fans shouldn't be wondering if this is the coach that can win with the Bobcats. The real question to think about: 2 years from now, will any coach be able to win with the Bobcats' roster?
- he was not known to be among the initial candidates for the job (a list that included Patrick Ewing, Jerry Sloan, etc.)
- he was not known to be among the finalists for the job (Brian Shaw, Quin Snyder)
- the majority of NBA fans do not know who he is
Gut Reaction: "This is a crazy hire. He has no experience."
Reasonable Question: "How does Dunlap's experience compare to other recent NBA hires?"
The majority of NBA coaches hired are re-treads, guys who have already been head coaches somewhere. In fact, 19 of the 29 current head coaches in the league had prior experience as head coach of an NBA team. (Incidentally, most coaches get fired because they weren't doing well: Randy Wittman's prior head coaching experience included a 0.32 win pct in over 300 games before getting hired to coach the Wizards).
Nine other NBA head coaches had NBA assistant coach as their best relevant experience. Of those guys, experience ranges from 10+ years (Tom Thibodeau, Larry Drew, Spoelstra), 5-10 years (Monty Williams, Scott Brooks, Gregg Popovich, Tyrone Corbin), and less than five years (Kaleb Canales, Mike Dunlap). Bottom line: Dunlap's NBA experience is on the light end of the spectrum, but he's definitely not the least experienced. That honor has to go to either Canales or Mark Jackson (no previous coaching experience at the college or NBA level).
Gut Reaction: "If we weren't getting a veteran coach, we should hire the big-name young talent."
Reasonable Question: "Were the other coaches better candidates?"
The results here are surprising. Quin Snyder's resume (outside of college) included 3 years as a head coach in the D-League, and one year as an NBA assistant as his most recent job. That job experience is identical to the resume of Sam Vincent prior to his ill-fated hiring as the Bobcats' coach.
Brian Shaw has certainly paid his dues as an assistant, and the pedigree of the Phil Jackson coaching tree (Triangle offense included) is certainly tempting. But he's not the only Jackson assistant coach to look for a head coaching gig. Kurt Rambis was also an assistant under Phil for years, and was hired by Minnesota to bring the Triangle offense to the T-Wolves in 2009. After two years and 32 combined wins, he was fired. And failure is not confined to Jackson disciples. John Kuester was an assistant coach who had paid his dues in the league. After the Cavaliers' 2009 season, he was a hot commodity. But after 2 years coaching the Pistons (29 wins per year), he was fired. The hot young coaching prospect does not always pan out immediately, particularly with young teams short on talent.
Gut Reaction: "The Bobcats knocked themselves way off track with this hire."
Reasonable Question: "Does this hire fit within the Bobcats' rebuilding plan?"
No two rebuilding plans are exactly the same. Indiana re-tooled their roster with savvy trades and nice draft picks in the middle of the 1st round. The Clippers swapped part of their young core for a current superstar. The Thunder tore down and rebuilt around a ludicrously young core, patiently waiting for them to grow.
Regardless of which plan is the Bobcats, the overwhelming likelihood is that if the roster looks like it can win, the coach will turn over before the roster. It happened with Jim O'Brien in Indiana (fired), Mike Dunleavy with the Clippers (fired), Lebron's first head coach (Paul Silas - fired), Derrick Rose's (Vinny Del Negro - fired), Chris Paul's (Byron Scott - fired), Dwight Howard's (Brian Hill - fired), Carmelo Anthony's (Jeff Bzdelik - fired)... Incidentally, most of those coaches were fired within 3 years of their respective superstar's arrival, and prior head coaching experience didn't save their jobs.
At the end of the day, here are the facts: Mike Dunlap has been hired for 2 years, with an option for a 3rd. He is light on experience relative to other hired NBA coaches. Regardless of his resume, no one really knows how he's going to do as a head coach, for better or worse. And, in all honesty, who gets added to this roster is probably twice as important as who's coaching them at this point. Bobcats fans shouldn't be wondering if this is the coach that can win with the Bobcats. The real question to think about: 2 years from now, will any coach be able to win with the Bobcats' roster?
Sunday, June 10, 2012
Heat Celtics Summary
Best Player / Most Valuable Player: Dwyane Wade (Individual +60, Net +30). This was a surprising result, considering: 1) Lebron's consistently strong play throughout the series, and 2) the circumstantial evidence of Wade complaining about non-calls while the Celtics were scoring in transition. It's interesting that, after a year of blaming Lebron for all the Heat's ills, popular opinion seems to be giving Wade a larger share of the blame for each setback. With matchups against Westbrook or Harden looming, the Finals should be very interesting for D-Wade.
Worst Player: Paul Pierce (Individual -38). Four years ago, Pierce and James went shot-for-shot in Game 7 of a playoff series, a few weeks before Pierce opined on his standing as the best player in the world. Fast forward to today, and Pierce's numbers in the series were significantly worse than his prior work in these playoffs. 34% shooting (26% on 3's), more turnovers than assists, and generally lackluster defense on James or Wade.
Least Valuable Player: Mario Chalmers (Net -26). Matched up with Rondo, Chalmers was going to be a big factor in this series regardless of the outcome. Judging by Rondo's performance, it seems like Miami won despite a poor series from Super Mario. Unfortunately for him, his next matchup (Russell Westbrook) is arguably just as daunting.
Jerome James Award: Kevin Garnett / Rajon Rondo. Three years ago, Lebron James and the Cavaliers were defeated by the Orlando Magic in the Eastern Conference Finals. At the end of the series, James chose to leave the court before shaking hands with the other team, and blew off his obligatory postgame media session. Along with fines from the league, sportswriters had a lot to say about his very unsportsmanlike act:
"If boxers, after getting pummeled by an opponent, can get off the canvas and shake a man's hand, then so can a basketball player, no matter how famous. James, like so many others before him, is going to have to grow accustomed to crushing losses. Only the great Bill Russell, for the most part, avoided them. Wilt lost, Kareem lost, Magic and Bird lost, Jordan lost. But as far as I know, they maintained a level of sportsmanship that isn't optional." - Mike Wilbon
"So, this is new-era sportsmanship as defined by King James: Winners don’t shake hands with their opponents after they lose; competitors storm off when the result doesn’t go their way." - Bill Rhoden
I agree that, as superficial as it may be in the moment, the post-series handshake represents mutual respect by opponents, a key component of athletic competition. Lebron James rightly took a lot of criticism, because competitors should show respect in victory and defeat. So, where's the collective disgust and outrage over Kevin Garnett and Rajon Rondo doing the exact same thing Lebron did at the end of Game 7? The silence on this subject is confirmatory of a simple fact: perception of the Heat and Celtics players drive their respective media coverage more than reality. The Heat are villains, and the Celtics are heroes. Everything that confirms those perceptions is emphasized, and everything that contradicts them is disregarded or ignored. But, when I look at each team objectively, I see three All-NBA talents that chose to team up and win rather than go it alone and lose. The only major difference between them is one championship ring... for now. From that perspective, it's hard to see the relative treatment of the Celtics and Heat as anything but a double standard.
Worst Player: Paul Pierce (Individual -38). Four years ago, Pierce and James went shot-for-shot in Game 7 of a playoff series, a few weeks before Pierce opined on his standing as the best player in the world. Fast forward to today, and Pierce's numbers in the series were significantly worse than his prior work in these playoffs. 34% shooting (26% on 3's), more turnovers than assists, and generally lackluster defense on James or Wade.
Least Valuable Player: Mario Chalmers (Net -26). Matched up with Rondo, Chalmers was going to be a big factor in this series regardless of the outcome. Judging by Rondo's performance, it seems like Miami won despite a poor series from Super Mario. Unfortunately for him, his next matchup (Russell Westbrook) is arguably just as daunting.
Jerome James Award: Kevin Garnett / Rajon Rondo. Three years ago, Lebron James and the Cavaliers were defeated by the Orlando Magic in the Eastern Conference Finals. At the end of the series, James chose to leave the court before shaking hands with the other team, and blew off his obligatory postgame media session. Along with fines from the league, sportswriters had a lot to say about his very unsportsmanlike act:
"If boxers, after getting pummeled by an opponent, can get off the canvas and shake a man's hand, then so can a basketball player, no matter how famous. James, like so many others before him, is going to have to grow accustomed to crushing losses. Only the great Bill Russell, for the most part, avoided them. Wilt lost, Kareem lost, Magic and Bird lost, Jordan lost. But as far as I know, they maintained a level of sportsmanship that isn't optional." - Mike Wilbon
"So, this is new-era sportsmanship as defined by King James: Winners don’t shake hands with their opponents after they lose; competitors storm off when the result doesn’t go their way." - Bill Rhoden
I agree that, as superficial as it may be in the moment, the post-series handshake represents mutual respect by opponents, a key component of athletic competition. Lebron James rightly took a lot of criticism, because competitors should show respect in victory and defeat. So, where's the collective disgust and outrage over Kevin Garnett and Rajon Rondo doing the exact same thing Lebron did at the end of Game 7? The silence on this subject is confirmatory of a simple fact: perception of the Heat and Celtics players drive their respective media coverage more than reality. The Heat are villains, and the Celtics are heroes. Everything that confirms those perceptions is emphasized, and everything that contradicts them is disregarded or ignored. But, when I look at each team objectively, I see three All-NBA talents that chose to team up and win rather than go it alone and lose. The only major difference between them is one championship ring... for now. From that perspective, it's hard to see the relative treatment of the Celtics and Heat as anything but a double standard.
Saturday, June 9, 2012
Thunder Spurs Summary
Best Player: James Harden (Individual +38). His ascension up the ranks of the NBA's shooting guards continues. The comparisons to Manu Ginobli at the beginning of the series seemed entirely premature, given Manu's 3 championship rings and an non-U.S. Olympic gold medal. Well, Harden is 4 wins away from starting his own resume. If you try to list the NBA's best shooting guards at the beginning of the season, it probably looked like: Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade, Manu Ginobli, Eric Gordon, James Harden. Looking forward over the next decade, and crossing the first three names off the list, does that mean James Harden will soon be the 2nd best shooting guard in the league?
Worst Player: Kawhi Leonard (Individual -24). In the last series, I tried to temper enthusiasm for both Leonard and Green. Unfortunately, Leonard was one of the people tasked with trying to stop Kevin Durant in the 4th quarter. Regardless of this series, he's a reliable 3-pointer and one dribble pull-up away from being extremely valuable to any team in the league.
Most Valuable Player: Tim Duncan (Net +34). For the last three years, every postseason conversation about the Spurs seemed to include a consensus that Tim Duncan was losing effectiveness rapidly. Whether by matchups or miracles (probably a little of both), his production in the middle of the Spurs' small lineups was impressive. As always, the development of a solid sidekick in the middle will say a lot about the Spurs' seemingly endless championship hopes.
Least Valuable Player: Kendrick Perkins (Net -22). Either it was Tony Parker on the pick-and-roll, or single covering Tim Duncan in the post down the stretch of Games 5 and 6. Regardless, this was not the series for Perkins. And, really, with Boston and Miami looming, will he be taken off the court again in the Finals due to the matchups?
Reverse Jerome James Award: Russell Westbrook. Let's be honest, most people believe that Russell Westbrook is the Achilles heel of the Thunder. Get in his head, watch him shoot his team out of the game. Tony Parker even attempted some pre-series gamesmanship by calling Westbrook "the head of the snake." Turns out, Westbrook didn't have a stellar series shooting the ball (0.81 PPS) or making plays (7.3 assist versus 3.3 turnovers). He also had a better plus/minus than Durant in 4 out of 6 games. While the whole world gets exasperated with every missed shot, maybe everyone should take a cue from Durant: he seems to understand better than we do that Westbrook's impact has a lot more to do with his shooting percentage.
Worst Player: Kawhi Leonard (Individual -24). In the last series, I tried to temper enthusiasm for both Leonard and Green. Unfortunately, Leonard was one of the people tasked with trying to stop Kevin Durant in the 4th quarter. Regardless of this series, he's a reliable 3-pointer and one dribble pull-up away from being extremely valuable to any team in the league.
Most Valuable Player: Tim Duncan (Net +34). For the last three years, every postseason conversation about the Spurs seemed to include a consensus that Tim Duncan was losing effectiveness rapidly. Whether by matchups or miracles (probably a little of both), his production in the middle of the Spurs' small lineups was impressive. As always, the development of a solid sidekick in the middle will say a lot about the Spurs' seemingly endless championship hopes.
Least Valuable Player: Kendrick Perkins (Net -22). Either it was Tony Parker on the pick-and-roll, or single covering Tim Duncan in the post down the stretch of Games 5 and 6. Regardless, this was not the series for Perkins. And, really, with Boston and Miami looming, will he be taken off the court again in the Finals due to the matchups?
Reverse Jerome James Award: Russell Westbrook. Let's be honest, most people believe that Russell Westbrook is the Achilles heel of the Thunder. Get in his head, watch him shoot his team out of the game. Tony Parker even attempted some pre-series gamesmanship by calling Westbrook "the head of the snake." Turns out, Westbrook didn't have a stellar series shooting the ball (0.81 PPS) or making plays (7.3 assist versus 3.3 turnovers). He also had a better plus/minus than Durant in 4 out of 6 games. While the whole world gets exasperated with every missed shot, maybe everyone should take a cue from Durant: he seems to understand better than we do that Westbrook's impact has a lot more to do with his shooting percentage.
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