In college basketball, the regular season seems less indicative of postseason success than any other major sport. VCU goes from one of the final four in the tournament to... well... one of the Final Four in the tournament. UConn goes from 9th in the Big East to national champs. Is there anything that can be learned from things that happen during the regular season? Well, that's what UNC fans are probably wondering after this weekend. What does a 33 point loss say about a team's chances to win a national title?
If you think the Tar Heels can't win the national title, you've got some ammunition. Of the past 20 national champions, none of them ever lost a game by 30+ points the year they won it all. And one player having the game of his life isn't an excuse to quit, because games like can happen to ranked teams... just ask Ohio State. Tough game conditions can happen, and a team that quits doesn't have a great shot to win in March.
On the other hand, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic. 15 of the last 20 national champions lost at least one game by 10+ points, and the largest margin of defeat by a champion in that time? The 1993 Tar Heels, courtesy of a 26 point loss to Wake Forest. Also, UNC still boasts arguably the best talent and the best coach in the country, which is two thirds of the battle, at worst. And, the Seminoles clearly match up well with UNC, as evidenced by their 3-3 head-to-head record over the past few years.
Does one argument win out over the other? Not really, no. As much as everyone (myself included) would like to divine some indisputable meaning from this bizarre result, there just isn't any to be had. Lots of improbable things happen once, especially in sports. And while it's completely predictable that a UNC loss in March will spawn countless references to this game as the red herring, the fairly obvious truth is this: right now, nobody really knows.
