Since the goal of every NBA team is (read: hopefully is) winning a championship, finding the pieces that can make that happen should be of paramount importance. While playing styles, coaching changes, and key rotational players will always move the needle at the margin, high level talent remains the necessary piece for winning. Here's a look at the individual awards of the last twenty NBA champions:
Looking at these awards, a few things jump out. Only one out of three MVP's have won it all in June. Defensive Player of the Year is even less reliable as an indicator. While every championship team has had at least one All-Star (the 1999 season didn't have All-Stars, but I'm sure Tim Duncan would have made it), the All-Star roster seems to be a wide net to cast for franchise players. Of the group, almost every NBA champion had at least one All-NBA 2nd team member the season they won*. So that's the best group to use. Looking at the last three years of All-NBA teams, I would group franchise players into three tiers.
TIER 1 (SURE-FIRE FRANCHISE PLAYERS): Blake Griffin, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Paul, Kevin Durant, Lebron James, Marc Gasol, Tony Parker
These seven guys have no significant injury issues going into next season, and are unlikely to face a steep age-related declines over the next few years.
TIER 2 (TBD BASED ON INJURY): Amare Stoudemire, Andrew Bynum, Derrick Rose, Dwight Howard, Dwyane Wade, Kevin Love, Kobe Bryant, Russell Westbrook
These eight players all faced some significant injury during the 2012-2013 season, and while a return to form is up for varying levels of debate, they've all made an All-NBA first or second team in the last three seasons.
TIER 3 (POSSIBLE): David Lee, Dirk Nowitzki, James Harden, Pau Gasol, Paul George, Rajon Rondo, Tim Duncan, Tyson Chandler
This group is more speculative than the others. They're either young guys with upside and a recent 3rd team berth to their credit (Lee, Harden, George, Rondo, Chandler) or veteran guys that might be able to re-capture their prior form for a year, a la Tim Duncan this year.
IS DWIGHT HOWARD A FRANCHISE PLAYER?
Based on the 15 players in the first two tiers, I'd argue that Howard represents the best prospect of the players currently available.
- First, his injury woes might be a lower hurdle to clear than the others on the Tier 2 list (e.g. Bynum, Rose). Despite missing something physically all year, he still led the league in rebounding and was a 3rd team All-NBA center.
- Second, before this season, Dwight Howard had been the 1st Team All-NBA center for FIVE consecutive years. The only players who can also claim that are Lebron James and Kobe Bryant.
- Third, Howard has a consistent record of being part of competitive playoff teams (prior to this year), even without another All-NBA talent at his side.
Dwight Howard is a few years away from his best production as a pro, based on injuries and other factors. He's famous for undermining coaches and holding organizations hostage with his demands and indecision. But he's also the best big man on the planet when healthy, and a $20mm+ annual contract seems fair when considering what he brings to the table, and what similarly paid peers could bring instead.
*The only NBA champion that didn't have an All-NBA 2nd Teamer was the 1995 Houston Rockets, a defending champion where Hakeem Olajuwon was a 3rd Team player behind David Robinson and Shaquille O'Neal. He outplayed both on the way to his second consecutive title.
