College Basketball: What does the AP Poll Tell Us?

College basketball offers fans a less predictable postseason and champion than most other major sports. There are likely several reasons for this (single elimination tournament, 6 rounds of tournament play, wide variance in roster experience). However, for the people that follow the sport regularly, a natural question arises: does anyone know anything about who's going to win? And, does the regular season tell us anything?

In order to answer the questions, the AP poll is probably the best source of information. Since it offers rankings at the preseason, mid-season (before conference play), and end of season (pre-tournament), what does it say about our collective knowledge of college basketball over the last ten seasons?

PRESEASON SUCCESS: 73%
MIDSEASON SUCCESS: 71%
PRETOURNEY SUCCESS: 81%

Over the last ten years, the AP top 20 basically yielded six of the Elite Eight teams before a game was played. Through midseason (basically, right before conference play starts), that number did not improve; in fact, it was slightly worse. Bottom line: at this level, conventional wisdom seems neither good nor bad.

PRESEASON SUCCESS: 55%
MIDSEASON SUCCESS: 53%
PRETOURNEY SUCCESS: 68%

This looks like the most varied level of success for the poll. The preseason success was higher than the midseason success, and the pretourney number was the highest of them all. But it's so inconsistent: in two years (2011 and 2006), no preseason top 10 team made the Final Four. In the same years, only one top 10 team from the last poll made the Final Four. Apparently, the difference between winning three tourney games and winning four is real.

For picking the national champion, the AP poll has some interesting results. In the preseason poll, three out of the last ten champions were unranked: 2011 (UConn), 2006 (Florida), and 2003 (Syracuse). In fact, all three remained outside the top ten (#21, #11, #11, respectively) going into the tourney.

The most interesting part of this is the national champions from the top 5 in the poll. Given the variability seen in the Elite Eight and Final Four participants, it's comparatively impressive to see that six champions came out of the top 5 in preseason, and eight out of the midseason top 5.

Why is the pre-tourney number so low? It's hard to say for sure. The easiest answer is probably the idea that the polls reflect record more than ability as the season drags on, and teams that lose a game are very likely to fall (only five of ten national champions won their conference tournaments). But that does not reflect a diminished ability to win it all come March.

CONCLUSIONS

The AP poll is likely the best reflection of popular wisdom regarding college basketball, but it's far from perfect as a predictive tool.

• Whether it's November, January, or March, it's likely we'll get at least one Final Four team that "doesn't belong" based on the polls, and probably more. That is and hopefully always will be the best part of March Madness.
• As far as the Elite Eight and Final Four go, we collectively know nothing in week 8 that we didn't know before the season started. In fact, we might know a little less. It's almost enough to say that pre-January games don't matter at all, except...
• Despite the single-elimination, six-wins required gauntlet of the tournament, the top 5 teams in the AP poll matter, even in preseason, and maybe even more in midseason. In fact, the top 5 AP teams in week 8 have won more national titles in the last decade than the #1 seeds. There's no way that's a sure thing, but regardless, I'll probably take a look at the odds on Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Louisville, and Indiana to win it all come March, no matter what happens between now and then.

Bobcats Quarterly Update: Playing the Young Guys

 As everyone in the Bobcats organization has either implied or just said out loud, this year is less about wins and losses and more about development. 20 or so games in, there are some interesting things that you can already see.

THE BOBCATS ARE LETTING THE YOUNG GUYS PLAY

The six major young players are getting some serious run. Of the possible minutes each player could play, all but Henderson and Biyombo are playing more than 24 minutes in the games they're healthy enough to play. Henderson is still coming back from injury. Biyombo's playing time seems a little more problematic, but he's already trending higher (over 31 minutes per game) in December. If that doesn't seem significant, consider: 5% of possible minutes played is a little over two minutes a game. Over an 82 game season, that's 197 extra minutes, or FOUR full games of extra court time.

 

Other notes on playing the young guys:

• Per 82games.com, 14 of the Bobcats' top 20 lineups feature at least three of the young guys. 6 of those lineups feature at least four. Not only are they getting to play individually, they are playing together.
• Against the Clippers, the Bobcats started Walker, Taylor, MKG, Mullens, and Biyombo. Chris Paul, one of their opponents, had more than double the career starts and minutes played of the Bobcats' entire starting lineup. The lack of experience is real, and will continue to manifest in close games despite the early wins in tight games.
• As much as it may frustrate to watch the late game turnovers and inefficient offense, it doesn't say a lot about what these players will eventually be able to do. Kevin Durant shot 43% from the field (29% from three) as a rookie. Tony Parker started as a rookie, but as a 2nd year player routinely gave way to Speedy Claxton during crunch time in 2003. These guys aren't close to finished products yet. 

Bobcats Quarterly Update: Kemba Walker

As everyone in the Bobcats organization has either implied or just said out loud, this year is less about wins and losses and more about development. 20 or so games in, there are some interesting things that you can already see.

KEMBA WALKER IS A BETTER SCORER THAN LAST YEAR

As previously covered here, the rookie year of Kemba Walker raised more questions than it answered. The raw averages for Walker (18 ppg, 6 apg, 2 spg) look pretty good, but how is he doing it given the struggles we saw shooting last year? Here's a brief look (via Hoopdata):

• Kemba is taking nearly 5 free throws per game, an additional 1.6 on average. That's more than noted in-the-paint point guards like Tony Parker and Ty Lawson.
• At the rim attempts have gone up... a lot. As in, nearly doubled. While he's not as efficient as the best at his position (Parker, Lawson, and Kyrie Irving are all 60%+ on shots at the rim), it's his most efficient shot, and he's taking it more.
• While his attempts from 16-23 feet haven't increased, his efficiency has improved significantly. At 47%, he's close to or better than more polished mid-range shooters like Chris Paul, Steph Curry, Deron Williams, and Jose Calderon in this young season.

While 20 games is an extremely small sample size, the beginning of the season has certainly seen a Kemba Walker more than capable of scoring efficiently with higher usage. Combine that with an improved assist-turnover ratio, and the season has started to yield confirmation that he can more than handle the starting gig as an NBA point guard.