Preaching Patience: Derrick Rose and the '12-'13 Bulls Title Chances

Derrick Rose's ACL injury shaped the 2012 playoffs more than most of us will probably remember in a few years. Without Rose, the Bulls lost to the 76ers in the 1st round. Those 76ers then faced the Celtics in the Eastern Conference semifinals. The Celtics won that series, which gave all of us a seven game Celtics-Heat series, highlighted by Lebron James' career-altering Game 6 in Boston.

Most people remember the Bulls giving a game performance in the 2011 Eastern Conference Finals against the Heat, and the rematch didn't happen in 2012 due to Rose's injury. As the 2013 regular season winds down, no clear challenger has emerged to rival the Heat in the East. With the Bulls scratching and clawing their way to a possible top four seed without the youngest MVP in league history (and their undisputed leader), what could they do in the postseason if Rose were to return? Could they conceivably win it all? For a few reasons, I think the answer is no.

REASON #1: A HEALTHY DERRICK ROSE MAY NOT BE 2011 DERRICK ROSE

Rose's role for the Bulls prior to the injury was as important as any single player to a team. He's averaged 37 minutes per game for his career, posting a high usage rate and shouldering much of the team's offensive burden. There are plenty of examples of young point guards missing significant time from knee injuries and taking time to round back into their prior form (e.g. Ricky Rubio, John Wall). It's likely Rose will experience some level of an acclimation period.

REASON #2: CHAMPIONSHIP TEAMS HAVE CONTINUITY FROM THEIR CORE

The success of the Bulls this season is a testament to the schemes, coaching, and structural organization in place. However, the 2012-2013 Bulls have not played a game with Rose, and that's not a small thing. Take a look at the top three playoff scorers from the last ten NBA champions.

Notice that the top three scorers of all those champions had pretty significant game experience during the regular season. In fact, the only top three scorer that played less than half his team's regular season games was Rasheed Wallace, and he was the Pistons' #3 scorer. Rose would likely be expected to return to #1 scoring duties almost immediately, which doesn't look like a recent recipe for success. Even Michael Jordan (1995 playoffs) couldn't jump back onto the Bulls and lead them to the title as the returning alpha dog.

REASON #3: TO WIN IT ALL, THE BULLS STILL HAVE TO BEAT THE HEAT

In case people really don't remember the Heat-Bulls series from two years ago, the Bulls had some trouble (particularly Rose) against the Heat defense. That's not meant as an insult, but it is what happened. Their offense struggled, and the 2013 roster doesn't boast a reputable floor-spacer like Korver. In fact, this actually highlights the major hurdle for the Bulls' title chances: even if Rose comes back instaneously as his 2011 self, and he gels perfectly with this Bulls team (including teammates he's never really played with before), would they really have more than the puncher's chance currently being given to the Knicks and Pacers?

As much as I'd love to see my favorite NBA player return to the court as soon as possible, it's hard to argue that adding him now meaningfully improves the Bulls' title chances this year. And none of this factors in any potential "rushing back" injury potential. I'd say the Bulls have a very viable choice in sitting Rose for the rest of this season, regardless of how the regular season turns out.

What the Bobcats Might Do With a Top 3 Pick (2013 Edition)

As the end of the college basketball regular season approaches, GM's and front offices are honing in on the best talent in the upcoming NBA draft (at least the ones that aren't complaining about the class endlessly). Which players offer the best chance at all-NBA level production?

Tough Omissions: Nerlens Noel, Anthony Bennett

I'd say that both stand a good chance of making me look stupid in a short amount of time. Noel has unbelievable defensive ability, and Anthony Bennett is captivating to watch in a game. Since I'm only allowing three players, I leave these guys one cut below due to long term uncertainty about offense and positional fit, respectively. Also, I'm a little relieved Steven Adams from Pitt likely isn't coming out: if he declares, I may re-shuffle this a little bit.

Here are my best guesses for All-NBA talent in the 2013 Draft.

3. Shabazz Muhammad
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He has not had the easiest road through his freshman season. A combination of injuries, eligibility issues, illness, and the current mess of the UCLA basketball program have been more than a fair share of hurdles to overcome. Meanwhile, he's demonstrated scoring prowess from all over the floor, palpable intensity on the court, and a willingness to take the big shot (maybe too willing).

I see a potentially very good NBA scorer: scores on a variety of shots (including decent efficiency from three and generating free throw attempts). There is a chance that he's developed earlier than most (a la O.J. Mayo, Tyreke Evans), and his playmaking ability is limited (read: A-TO), but I think there's still some upside for him in the NBA.

(Also, since he's 6-6, can someone explain why so many people refer to him as a "prototypical NBA small forward?" Here are the respective heights of Lebron, Durant, Carmelo, Rudy Gay, Paul George, and Luol Deng: 6-8, 6-9, 6-8, 6-8, 6-8, 6-9. That's basically the small forward position of today's NBA, and Muhammad is two inches shorter than all those guys. I think he's a two in the NBA.)

2. Michael Carter-Williams
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His initial hype this season was probably more stats-based (over 10 assists per game) than anything, and as those numbers have fallen in conference play, so has the attention. His season to date has been somewhat inconsistent game to game (partially driven by the Southerland issue, I think), and his flashier pass attempts lead to unnecessary turnovers at times. Having said that, he has more potential than I think he gets credit for.

He has NBA level quickness and athleticism, which allows him to generate steals, push pace, get to the line, and finish in highlight fashion (I know everyone saw that game, but there are other examples). His court vision (arguably the toughest skill to acquire) would be high end at the NBA level from day one, and that trait has meaningfully affected Syracuse's play this year. The form on his jump shot seems to indicate that shot selection has as much to do with poor percentages as anything. And, he clearly relishes being "the guy" in crunch time situations.

I believe that, like Joe Johnson, Evan Turner, and James Harden before him, he'd be miscast matched up against point guards full time: meaning, I'd play him at both guard spots at the next level. He'd have to add some weight at shooting guard (although Kevin Martin has been a pretty good offensive pro with a similar frame), but he could create mismatches at either spot. I think he's a pretty unique talent at the next level, and can't wait to see what he can do in the NBA.

1. Isaiah Austin
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He could weigh anywhere from 200-230 pounds right now. That, combined with his height (7-1) and wingspan (7-3), limits his ability to bang in the paint when opponents have lower centers of gravity and more girth. And whenever someone of his size shoots any shot that isn't a dunk attempt, it feels like a win for the defense. And he doesn't have the same explosive athleticism of an Anthony Davis.

Austin could meaningfully impact both ends of the NBA floor. His offensive skill-set (developing post-up game, shooting and reasonable ball-handling out to 18+ feet) are replicated by few NBA players that match his size. Defensively, he alters shots, moves his feet smartly, and rebounds well. And, as far as weight, there are numerous examples of players both outgrowing their thin frames and learning to produce regardless (Kevin Durant, Kevin Garnett, Tyson Chandler, Marcus Camby).

The most important factor to me: he clearly has a motor. He plays through fatigue, inconsistent offensive touches, and the bumps and bruises guys his size accumulate. He's a demonstrable leader of his team, and he seems to love playing basketball (the most common complaint against players of his size). And if he does get to 240-250 pounds, he'll be a force in the NBA.

Postscript

Do you see this draft differently, love or hate the guys I've highlighted or omitted, or just want to troll? This is the post that invites feedback. Put up the three guys you think will be the best pros out of the 2013 draft. If you end up even partially right, you can gloat about it forever. If not, no one's going to remember anyway.

NBA Luxury Tax Summary

I've had a few requests for additional analysis of specific teams following the post on the new luxury tax. Without delving into every NBA team, this should provide a quick way to look at the current payroll of any NBA team, and the potential taxes. First, here's a great summary of NBA team payrolls by Basketball Reference. What could the tax for team X look like? 

 

Here's how the new luxury tax rates are calculated:

 

 

The $70.3 million starting point is based on the level for the 2012-2013 season. The tax increases don't stop here, though... they increase by $0.50 for every additional $5 million of a team's payroll. So, for a regular taxpayer, payroll above $100.3 million would be taxes at $4.75, and so on.

 

Based on that math, here's a quick summary of the tax bills for teams at different payroll levels going forward:

 

 

 It should be noted that the payroll numbers don't include things that are very likely, but haven't officially occurred (e.g. Chris Paul re-signing with the Clippers, next year's 1st round salaries, rookie deal extensions, etc.). There are a lot of hypotheticals to consider, but this is at least a starting point.

The New Math: NBA Teams and the Luxury Tax

In the wake of last week's Rudy Gay trade, there's a lot of hand-wringing and angst over owners making money-over-winning type decisions. And it's not just the Rudy Gay trade; by my count, this has already happened once, if not twice, in the last year. Since when did potential championship contenders break up their cores too early, as opposed to too late? Isn't winning a title everything in professional sports?

One of the biggest drivers of these decisions would seem to be the new CBA, or more specifically, the new luxury tax. The new costs radically change the math for any team venturing above the luxury tax line. How does this affect NBA teams going forward? Here's a simple look at a few teams, under the following rules:

• Each team's payroll is added up from salary data from HoopsHype.
• Core players are identified for each team.
• Non-core player costs are assumed to be $3mm per year, and filled out until the roster has 12 players.
• The total payroll cost is calculated using the new luxury tax rules.

With those rules, here's the outlook for the NBA's current "super-teams," along with a few others.

MIAMI HEAT

• The core players are: Lebron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh.
• The next nine players on the roster make $29.7mm this season ($3.3mm per player).
• No adjustments for assumed free agent signings.

Micky Arison signed up an incredible trio in 2010. Two straight Finals appearances have certainly validated that decision. But the bill is coming due next year. Even with the amnesty of Mike Miller this summer ($32mm in tax savings), team payroll will cost too much in the 2014-2015 season. This is almost certainly a three year window with the current core, which will end in the summer of 2014.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS

• The core players are: Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Dwight Howard, and Steve Nash.
• The next eight players on the roster this season make $23.5mm ($2.9mm per player).
• The adjustments are re-signings for all four core players at their current salaries.

The current Lakers roster is the most unsustainable roster in the NBA, from a cost standpoint. The luxury tax penalties nearly equal the players salaries. The roster would essentially wipe out all the Lakers' economic advantages, while providing a healthy check to every owner eligible to receive luxury tax payments. Even the amnesty of Ron Artest this summer ($29mm in tax savings) would only make a small dent in the tax bill.

NEW YORK KNICKS



• The core players are: Carmelo Anthony, Tyson Chandler, Amare Stoudemire, and JR Smith.
• The next nine players on the roster this season make $24.6mm ($2.7mm per player).
• The adjustments are: re-signing Smith for $10mm per year (2013 and 2014), and re-signing Chandler and Anthony at their current salaries (2015).

The roster is built to win now, but it's unlikely to make it to next season intact. First, JR Smith has a player option for next year ($3mm) that he is certain to decline (he'll command a higher number as a free agent, with more guaranteed years), and the amnesty of Amare could save the Knicks $110mm over the next two seasons (that is not a typo, $110 million). Unless this team wins it all in four months, it's hard to believe they'll stay together in their current form. And it's almost guaranteed that Stoudemire is the one to go.

BROOKLYN NETS



• The core players are: Joe Johnson, Deron Williams, Brook Lopez, and Gerald Wallace.
• The next eight players on the roster this season make $22.0mm ($2.7mm per player).
• There are no adjustments (all core players signed through 2016).

The Nets are in a very tough spot. Their four "core" players are signed through 2016. They've already used their amnesty clause. And the tax bills are significant going forward. If their ceiling ends up being lower than perennial title contender over the next four seasons, the payroll decisions will be difficult to unwind, if not impossible.

CHICAGO BULLS



• The core players are: Derrick Rose, Carlos Boozer, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah, and Taj Gibson.
• The next seven players on the roster make $15.8mm this season ($1.8mm per player).
• The adjustments arethe re-signing of Luol Deng at his current salary in the summer of 2014.

Rose and Gibson are almost certainly staying put. Noah, Deng, and Gibson are arguably reasonable price tags for their production and contribution to the team's defensive identity. That leaves out Boozer. If Boozer is amnestied this summer, that could save the Bulls $79mm over two years in luxury tax payments. Given the timing of Derrick Rose's injury and recovery, the play of Boozer this season, and the general health of the Eastern Conference, the Bulls may be letting a key piece of a conference finalist (Boozer) go this summer.

CONCLUSIONS

It's pretty clear that the new luxury tax rules will have a meaningful effect on the way teams are constructed. First, they discourage excessive spending. Teams like the 2009 and 2010 Orlando Magic are less likely to happen: a team with a perceived title window that spends in excess of $90mm on team salaries. Under the old luxury taxes, that team would cost roughly $110 million. Starting next year, it would cost $134 million. With "repeater" penalties, it would cost $153 million. Most, if any, organizations would probably be unable to pay that amount year after year and make money.

Second, these rules may encourage teams to lower short term payroll. Based on the simple math above, five teams will pay $242 million in luxury taxes next season. The league has mandated at least 50% will go directly to non-taxpaying teams. That means that, next year, 25 teams get checks for roughly $4.8 million if they stay below the tax line. In 2015, that number is $6.1 million, before repeater taxes and revenue sharing are added in (note: none of my numbers include any repeater tax penalties).

Bottom line: the new math of the NBA is changing the way teams are built. Maybe the league's elite organizations become the only true players, maybe parity spreads. Maybe player contracts shrink as owners mull the tax costs, maybe theyballoon as owners' pockets are lined with luxury taxes and increased revenue sharing. The one thing that seems clear at this point: owning an NBA team may be more profitable than ever (at least to them, them, and them).