Preaching Patience: Derrick Rose and the '12-'13 Bulls Title Chances

Derrick Rose's ACL injury shaped the 2012 playoffs more than most of us will probably remember in a few years. Without Rose, the Bulls lost to the 76ers in the 1st round. Those 76ers then faced the Celtics in the Eastern Conference semifinals. The Celtics won that series, which gave all of us a seven game Celtics-Heat series, highlighted by Lebron James' career-altering Game 6 in Boston.

Most people remember the Bulls giving a game performance in the 2011 Eastern Conference Finals against the Heat, and the rematch didn't happen in 2012 due to Rose's injury. As the 2013 regular season winds down, no clear challenger has emerged to rival the Heat in the East. With the Bulls scratching and clawing their way to a possible top four seed without the youngest MVP in league history (and their undisputed leader), what could they do in the postseason if Rose were to return? Could they conceivably win it all? For a few reasons, I think the answer is no.

REASON #1: A HEALTHY DERRICK ROSE MAY NOT BE 2011 DERRICK ROSE

Rose's role for the Bulls prior to the injury was as important as any single player to a team. He's averaged 37 minutes per game for his career, posting a high usage rate and shouldering much of the team's offensive burden. There are plenty of examples of young point guards missing significant time from knee injuries and taking time to round back into their prior form (e.g. Ricky Rubio, John Wall). It's likely Rose will experience some level of an acclimation period.

REASON #2: CHAMPIONSHIP TEAMS HAVE CONTINUITY FROM THEIR CORE

The success of the Bulls this season is a testament to the schemes, coaching, and structural organization in place. However, the 2012-2013 Bulls have not played a game with Rose, and that's not a small thing. Take a look at the top three playoff scorers from the last ten NBA champions.

Notice that the top three scorers of all those champions had pretty significant game experience during the regular season. In fact, the only top three scorer that played less than half his team's regular season games was Rasheed Wallace, and he was the Pistons' #3 scorer. Rose would likely be expected to return to #1 scoring duties almost immediately, which doesn't look like a recent recipe for success. Even Michael Jordan (1995 playoffs) couldn't jump back onto the Bulls and lead them to the title as the returning alpha dog.

REASON #3: TO WIN IT ALL, THE BULLS STILL HAVE TO BEAT THE HEAT

In case people really don't remember the Heat-Bulls series from two years ago, the Bulls had some trouble (particularly Rose) against the Heat defense. That's not meant as an insult, but it is what happened. Their offense struggled, and the 2013 roster doesn't boast a reputable floor-spacer like Korver. In fact, this actually highlights the major hurdle for the Bulls' title chances: even if Rose comes back instaneously as his 2011 self, and he gels perfectly with this Bulls team (including teammates he's never really played with before), would they really have more than the puncher's chance currently being given to the Knicks and Pacers?

As much as I'd love to see my favorite NBA player return to the court as soon as possible, it's hard to argue that adding him now meaningfully improves the Bulls' title chances this year. And none of this factors in any potential "rushing back" injury potential. I'd say the Bulls have a very viable choice in sitting Rose for the rest of this season, regardless of how the regular season turns out.