Assessing the Bobcats' Pieces: Bismack Biyombo (2012-2013)

As the Bobcats continue their rebuilding process, the key to achieving success will be building a roster of players capable of major contributions on a playoff team. As the 2012-2013 season approaches, it's important to take stock of the key players on the team today, and whether they do (or will) fit that bill.

Bismack Biyombo was a prospect Rich Cho had strong feelings about dating back to his Portland days. The trade-up in the 2011 draft to take him (Detroit was reportedly poised to select him at #8) only reinforced the enthusiasm for him as a player. His physical attributes are so rare, and his relative lack of development rarer still, that a comparable group of players doesn't really jump out. But, there are two recent NBA players that may offer the right context for his play last season: Serge Ibaka and Derrick Favors.

(A big pre-emptive shout-out to www.hoopdata.com, which appears to be some kind of basketball nerd Xanadu. The data cited below comes from their fantastic site.)

Rebounding and Defense

While the total rebound numbers look pretty good, it's better to look at rebound rate to assess the quality of that number. Biyombo's defensive rebound rate is comparable to Favors and Ibaka, but his offensive rebound rate is significantly lower than his peers, and makes his total rebound rate the worst of the three. This is a surprising result given Biyombo's overall motor and intensity, and hopefully improves immediately in his 2nd season.

As for blocks, they are not a singular assessment of a player's defensive ability, but they are a big part of what Biyombo brings to the table. It's encouraging to see that he blocked shots more frequently (and fouled less frequently) than the others. As the more subtle parts of his defensive game develop (rotations, pick-and-roll responsibilities, post defense), his potential as a game-changing defender will become more evident.

Scoring The Ball

As much as people like to compare Biyombo to Ibaka, the comparison breaks down here. The high at-the-rim field goal percentages are nice, but largely expected given the caliber of athletes in this group. However, Biyombo's deficiencies to Ibaka in field goal percentage from 3-9 feet (23%) and 10-15 feet (30%) highlight the work ahead in terms of developing consistent low post offense, touch shots in the paint, and perhaps a face-up jumper. Admittedly, the stat comparisons aren't perfect given the context: Bismack played on the worst team in NBA history, while Ibaka was the 4th or 5th option on a playoff team featuring two All-Stars and the league's leading scorer. Still, it's naive to think there isn't a long way to go here.

Derrick Favors' inclusion is probably important at this point. He played in some similarly dysfunctional contexts as a rookie, and has a great work ethic, loads of athletic ability, and the benefit of youth to explain his skill level. However, it's hard to see an immediate jump from Year 1 to Year 2:

Now, it's debatable whether the biggest jump for players happens in Year 2 or Year 3. There is some level of improvement expected, and it might make sense to monitor his play going forward, as a potential signpost for Biyombo's development.

Verdict

Bismack's rookie year provided some impressive glimpses into the player he could be one day, from a double-double against Dwight Howard to securing one of the seven Bobcats wins last year. His age and commitment to the game increase the likelihood that he'll harness his impressive physical gifts. But, as it stands today, his limited offensive ability doesn't allow a valid comparison to Serge Ibaka. And it's hard to find an example of a player whose offensive repertoire started at this level and blossomed into league-average or better. Unless something remarkable happens during this season, I suspect this debate will be re-kindled in about a year's time.

Assessing the Bobcats' Pieces: Kemba Walker (2012-2013)

As the Bobcats continue their rebuilding process, the key to achieving success will be building a roster of players capable of major contributions on a playoff team. As the 2012-2013 season approaches, it's important to take stock of the key players on the team today, and whether they do (or will) fit that bill.

Kemba Walker came to the Bobcats on draft night with a decent amount of fanfare. Coming off a Player of the Year caliber season, and a national championship at UConn, his transition to the NBA as a 21 year old rookie might have seemed easier than other draftees. However, as the worst season in NBA history progressed, questions inevitably surfaced as to whether or not Walker was a key reason for the futility. So, with that in mind, it seems reasonable to compare his rookie season to recent rookie point guards that were 6-1 in height, and see what that says about his future NBA prospects.

Facilitating the Offense

It goes without saying, the Bobcats were one of the worst offenses in NBA history by several metrics. However, it's difficult to point to Walker as the main cause. Kemba Walker's rookie assist per game numbers (4.4) are better than Mike Conley, Rajon Rondo, and Ty Lawson. Not only that, Walker's assist-to-turnover ratio (2.43) is better than those three as well. All three of those guys are at least above-average NBA starters, and even on the worst team in NBA history, Walker fared better than they did as rookies on that front.

Scoring the Ball

As a habit, I continue to look at points per shot (total points versus total FGA and FTA) to measure player efficiency scoring the ball. While Walker's raw points per game appear average, he was an inefficient scorer; only Rondo was worse. How did this happen? Walker was essentially middle of the pack shooting free throws and threes. On two point attempts, however, only Brandon Jennings was less efficient as a rookie.

There are several reasons why a 6-1 (listed) point guard would struggle as a rookie on two point attempts.

• NBA defenders are taller, longer, quicker, and smarter than their college counterparts. Thus, scoring one-on-one is more difficult all over the floor.
• NBA defenses are more sophisticated and focused than other levels. The schemes and rotations are often tailored to make an off-the-dribble creator move the ball or take a contested shot.
• Rookies are perceived to get fewer calls than more experienced players on shot attempts, particularly in the paint and near the rim.

As a rookie transitioning to the NBA, that's a significant amount of challenges to overcome. But, those limitations are the same for everyone in this group, and they all face the same height limitations relative to their peers of prototypical PG size. The question is... will it get better?

Looking at the other five rookies on the list who struggled on two point attempts, the answer seems to be yes. Four out of five (Jennings, Augustin, Rondo, Felton) got better on two point attempts from Year 1 to Year 3. Also, those four also shot a higher number of free throw attempts per game. (The fifth player, Jonny Flynn, had a significant decrease in minutes in Year 3, along with being traded).

Verdict

Kemba Walker's rookie year has not offered much insight into the kind of player he will be in two years. An optimist could look at Rondo's statistical leap as a blueprint (unlikely, since the Bobcats didn't add Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen in the offseason). A pessimist could say that Walker's output singlehandedly keeps the Bobcats from ever making the playoffs (also unlikely, since Brandon Jennings put up comparable efficiency and assist-turnover numbers while leading his team to the playoffs in 2009-2010).

When I look at the other guys on the list, I see three guys (Paul, Rondo, Lawson) whose games will be difficult to emulate. I also see four guys who started for playoff teams (Nelson, Conley, Jennings, Felton) that Walker could equal and possibly surpass. Like every young player, there are anecdotal things that Walker could improve (using the roll man better on pick-and-rolls, running offense earlier in the shot clock). But, as with everything involving the Bobcats, it's going to take a while before we know the answer. I, for one, am still a believer.

Preseason View of the 2013 Draft Class

(Preseason View of the 2012 Draft Class)

Now that Midnight Madness has officially started the college basketball season, it's as good a time as any to look at those prospects already high on the radar screens of the NBA. This is, by no means, an exact science... of the 9 consensus lottery picks on the two noted mock drafts last year, 6 were actually drafted in the lottery. But, this could still help identify teams to watch during the season (example: last year's list convinced me to watch more Washington games than planned).

 

TIER 1: LOTTERY PICKS (8 Consensus, 15 Total)

Last Year: 13 Players, 11 Declared, 11 Drafted, 10 1st Rounders, 7 Lottery Picks 

 

The top 4 appear to be pretty set in stone, and Kentucky has three prospects as consensus lottery, versus two last year (hard to believe the metoric rise of MKG in twelve months as far as draft boards were concerned). As always, the fall risks always appear to be the guys that came back. A year ago Perry Jones and Jared Sullinger were considered lottery locks as returning sophomores. The only two who could be on the same path are Cody Zeller and James McAdoo, with McAdoo the bigger fall risk of the two.

 

 





TIER 2: 1ST ROUND CONSIDERATION (10 Consensus, 28 Total)
Last year: 21 Players, 11 Declared, 11 Drafted, 6 1st Rounders, 3 Lottery

There's a lot more debate at the bottom of the 1st round than last year, but it's so dependent on who declares and who doesn't, it's hard to nail any of these down. The most intriguing guys to start the year should be Austin, the Baylor freshman, followed by the eerily-similar-to-Jeff-Green Otto Porter at Georgetown. Outside of that, there's the usual collection of untapped raw potential (Austin, Mbakwe, Leslie, Dieng, Smith), older players with perceived lower ceilings (McCollum, Plumlee, McDermott), and some best guesses.

The best part about this? Guys like Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Dion Waiters, Damian Lillard, and Meyers Leonard. Guys that weren't in either group last year, all lottery picks in June. As a whole, there's a lot we think we know, and even more that we don't know.