Thursday, July 17, 2014

Talking Yourself Into Lance Stephenson

As a Hornets fan that pinned a lot of hope on signing Gordon Hayward, the last week has seen the team go in a decidedly different direction. The knee-jerk reaction to signing Lance Stephenson involves questions about conduct and maturity, both on and off the court. But is there a way to talk yourself into the signing?

1. LANCE STEPHENSON IS A GOOD PLAY-MAKER.



NBA Rank Among Non-Point Guards: #10 (minimum 41 games played)

During the 2013-2014 regular season, Stephenson averaged 4.6 assists per game. Aside from the raw number being impressive, he generated a good amount of "assist opportunities" (passes that would have been assists had teammates made their shots), particularly for a non-point guard. In fact, only nine players did better last year (Lebron James, James Harden, Gordon Hayward, Monta Ellis, Joakim Noah, Kevin Durant, Nic Batum, Tyreke Evans, and Dwyane Wade). 

2. LANCE STEPHENSON DOES NOT NEED TO DOMINATE THE BALL.


NBA Rank Among Non Point Guards: #11 (minimum 41 games played)

Despite the fact that Indiana operated with Lance as a de facto point guard at times, it turns out that Lance did not dominate the ball while on the floor. His time of possession fits nicely with the role of a secondary playmaker, coming in lower than a host of creators from the wing (Lebron James, James Harden, Monta Ellis, Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Durant, Gordon Hayward, Tyreke Evans, Paul George, Dwyane Wade). This bodes potentially well for his ability to mesh with a (typically) ball dominant point guard in Kemba Walker.

3. LANCE STEPHENSON IS A VERY GOOD REBOUNDER.


NBA Rank Among Non Big Men: #4 (minimum 41 games played)

There's no denying Stephenson's raw rebounding numbers this season. While it's fair to point out that this is one area of rumored stat-hunting (aka stealing rebounds from teammates), the fact is that he did grab a lot of "uncontested" rebounds (no opponent in the area). But he actually grabbed a comparable amount (72.3% of total rebounds) to Lebron James (75.2%) and Kevin Durant (77.8%). It's certainly possible that he tended to fight Pacers for rebounds more than the other team, but his overall motor for rebounding, particularly at the guard/forward spot, cannot be denied.

4. LANCE STEPHENSON IS A COMPARABLE SHOOTER TO OTHER NOTABLE SHOOTING GUARDS.

There are several things to note for Lance as a scorer, particularly with respect to other notable 2's/3's in the league. First, He was a strong finisher in the restricted area, a result of both drives and offensive rebounding. While his mid-range efficiency leaves something to be desired, it's the corner 3 numbers that are the most encouraging from a Hornets perspective.

Stephenson shot better from the corners than Josh McRoberts (48% versus 30%) on twice as many attempts per game. He shot better than Anthony Tolliver (39%), Chris Douglas-Roberts (45%), and Gary Neal (38%). While he clearly had a preference in location (right corner), Big Al has a preferred side of the floor too. There's enough here to work with as far as spacing the floor off the ball.

5. LANCE STEPHENSON IS A LEGITIMATE TWO WAY PLAYER.

As much as I am a fan of Gordon Hayward, even I can't dispute that his ability to defend well was largely dependent on using his height as an oversized shooting guard. There is no such debate about Stephenson. He's a plus defender at both wing positions, and is capable of hounding opposing wing players with length, strength, quickness, and motor. And in crunch time, he does not have to be a part of any offense/defense substitutions.

CONCLUSION

Looking at what Stephenson brought to the court last year, it's hard not to appreciate his overall talent level. There just aren't a lot of young two guards in the league that possess his package of skills. The problem with Lance, particularly the last six months, is that all sentences about his outlook start with the word "if." There are examples of talented guys in the league who realized their potential (Zach Randolph, Amare Stoudemire, Allen Iverson) despite conduct/character concerns, and maybe Stephenson is one of those guys. As a Hornets fan, I hope he is. But I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a little worried.

(all stats from www.nba.com)