Spurs-Lakers Summary

As the 2013 playoff series unfold, the old box score stats may not tell the whole story. These summaries will look at each series from the perspective of plus/minus. With an adjustment for minutes played, Oden's Knee will identify the players that stood out in each series, for good and bad reasons alike.

Best Plus Minus: Tony Parker (+48 in 127 minutes). There's nothing to say here that I didn't already say about a week and a half ago.

Worst Plus Minus: Pau Gasol (-49 in 146 minutes). Part of what happened to Gasol this year was terrible fit in the D'Antoni scheme, and part of it could be the beginning of an age-related decline that eventually happens to all players that don't have access to a blood spinner. As with everything in this Laker season, we're going to have to wait until next year to find out, because this year told us very little. I say he's still capable of All-NBA production at the center spot, if some coach would just find it in his heart to play him there.

Most Valuable Player: Metta World Peace (Net +71 in 84 minutes). Several years ago, Peace was one of a few guys in the league who could score 20 and stop a 20 ppg scorer on a regular basis. A few years ago, Peace was a defensive Swiss army knife at the two, three, and four spot, even if he was more strength and guile than footspeed. Next year, he's 33 years old, coming off a torn meniscus and sporting inconsistent shooting proficiency from deep. I don't know what his next role is, but on the court, he's been one of my favorite players in the league for about a decade.

Least Valuable Player: Danny Green (Net -63 in 93 minutes). Given the level of outright dominance by the Spurs, I'll spare Green any type of brow-beating. He knows his role on the team, and nothing that happened in this series has changed that role going forward.

Jerome James Award: Injuries. To be honest, I didn't watch enough of this series to have an opinion. And, that's mostly because the Lakers were forced, by injury, to start Andrew Goudelock and Darius Morris in a playoff game. Spurs fans can certainly appreciate how cheated fans feel when a key player goes down before a playoff run even starts - between Parker, Ginobli, and Duncan, they've had their fair share in the last few years. We can all agree that when guys like Kobe Bryant, Russell Westbrook, David Lee, and Dwyane Wade miss playoff games (all All-Stars this year), none of us are better off.

Heat-Bucks Summary

As the 2013 playoff series unfold, the old box score stats may not tell the whole story. These summaries will look at each series from the perspective of plus/minus. With an adjustment for minutes played, Oden's Knee will identify the players that stood out in each series, for good and bad reasons alike.

Best Plus Minus: Lebron James (+57 in 148 minutes). There's not much to say here. He produced the same 27-8-7 that we've all completely taken for granted for the last eight years, and if it's possible, it seemed like he spent four games warming up for the real work ahead. Four down, twelve to go.

Worst Plus Minus: Monta Ellis (-47 in 152 minutes). As a Bobcats fan, there aren't a lot of franchises that can match Charlotte's direction-less malaise. But Milwaukee comes close. Young draftees hitting restricted free agency because the front office doesn't know what they're worth (Jennings). Good draft picks that may or may not fit together (Sanders / Henson). Big money contracts in veterans that aren't a part of the long term plan (case in point, Ellis). If the Warriors didn't think that Ellis and Curry meant consistent playoff success, why did the Bucks think that Ellis and Jennings (worse than Curry in most facets) would? The Bogut trade looks more and more like a punt on an injured, All-NBA talent at center. I feel your pain, Bucks fans.

Most Valuable Player: Ersan Ilyasova (Net +49 in 117 minutes). For fans across the NBA that don't follow the small market teams / play fantasy basketball, Ilyasova is probably a relative unknown. But if I told you there was a 25 year old, 6-10 small forward that's spent the past two seasons producing 13 points, 8 rebounds, 45% 3 point shooting and 75% free throw shooting, you'd probably say he's the ideal stretch forward for any contending team's rotation. And I'd say you're right.

Least Valuable Player: Chris Bosh (Net -40 in 122 minutes). Honestly, I don't put any stock in this result at all. Zero. Bosh is one of the key ingredients in the the Heat's small-ball championship recipe, and if his value didn't show up in a series where the Heat rested players DURING SAID SERIES, that's fine. No one's ever said this, so I will: Chris Bosh makes his money in June. (How ridiculous does that sound?)

Jerome James Award: Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. The reputation of several UCLA players from the Ben Howland era have something to do with defense, and Mbah a Moute tops that list in terms of his calling card. If you're one of the people that enjoys his defense, then go read this. From where I'm sitting, I started this post by noting that Lebron put up typical Lebron numbers, with typical Lebron efficiency, and his team swept the series. It's not like Mbah a Moute was supposed to swing the series, but did his defense impact the game in any consistent way? The numbers say no.

The NBA's Best Scorer: 2013 Edition

2011 Edition

2012 Edition

Once again, it's time to identify the best scorers in the NBA, and crown one of them as the best of the best. A quick refresh of the criteria for eligibility:

• Must have played more than 41 games with a team.
• Must have ranked among the league leaders in attempts (free throws and shots) per game.

Without further ado, here's the 2013 crop (click for a better view).

Looking at the top...

1. Lebron James. It echoes most intelligent NBA writers to say that Lebron has submitted a regular season for the ages. I would simply add this: as a scorer, his numbers are staggering. He scored more efficiently on two pointers than Blake Griffin and Dwight Howard. His three point efficiency bested Kevin Durant. As a pure scorer, this season's points-per-shot is better than any season submitted by dominant scorers like Wilt Chamberlain, Larry Bird, or Michael Jordan. All I can say is... wow.

2. Stephen Curry. I thought the omission of Lamarcus Aldridge from the 2011 All-Star game was egregious, but that's nothing compared to Stephen Curry this year. A year ago, I waxed poetic on how James Harden's amazing scoring efficiency (1.046) was only possible due to his secondary status as a scorer, and then Stephen Curry beats it as an undisputed #1 option. In case you ever think I actually know what I'm talking about, I once said that I'd rather draft Jeff Teague than Steph Curry. Jeff Teague. Never forget.

3. Kevin Durant. There's nothing to say that hasn't already been said about his greatness as a scorer. I'll offer this: in 2007, Lebron James made the NBA Finals basically ahead of schedule, and the NBA world loved him. After that, the tone of discussion regarding his postseason performance started to change, as reaching and winning the Finals became an expectation. Durant may be in for the same shift in sentiment this spring.

4. Tony Parker. Tim Duncan is the greatest power forward of all time. Manu Ginobli is a Hall-of-Famer who led the only non-U.S. gold medal team in the Olympics in over 20 years. But one member of the San Antonio Big Three nevers seems to get his due. Who won the Finals MVP in 2007, along with his third ring? Who led the Spurs in scoring and minutes per game the last three seasons, including last season's playoffs? Who never gets mentioned in the Rose-Paul-Williams-Rondo argument, despite two All-NBA berths and five All-Star berths? Hint: the Spurs haven't lost because of his poor play the last few postseasons, but without him, it's almost certain they can't win this year.

5. Dirk Nowitzki. After a seeming 2012 victory lap of a season, and early season injury woes, Dirk remains  a unique problem for NBA defenses, an advantage that's amplified with the right roster around him (e.g. 2011). His loyalty to Dallas, combined with mileage, may mean we won't get to enjoy him on that stage ever again, but he's still a tough cover.

Other things to note:

• A year after Kyrie Irving walked onto an NBA court and instantly became one of the best scorers in the league, Damian Lillard comes along and does the same thing. 
• Blake Griffin is a much more efficient scorer than last year, by shooting fewer free throws at a much higher clip. I guess Chris Paul is making Blake better... at the line?
• Jrue Holiday and Russell Westbrook are All-Stars this year and considered building block players. Some people still call Kemba Walker a ball-dominant chucker. Walker scored at a similar efficiency to both of them, and posted a better assist-turnover ratio despite inferior teammates. Never underestimate the amount of taint playing for the Bobcats can give a player's reputation.
• James Harden has had a great year in Houston, and is clearly waiting for his shot at being the NBA's best shooting guard in a few years. However, being the #1 guy brings with it a definite drop in efficiency, as can be seen relative to his recent OKC days.
• Year 3 has come and gone with the same level of inefficiency for UK alums John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins. They're both incredible physical talents, and on any given night they look like incredible players, but consistent performance is still on the come (Wall's injury is a definite caveat to this point, but Cousins' situation is tougher to explain).

A final word... there's nothing amazing about predicting the Heat as this year's eventual champion. But what else is there to do? Lebron is the best player in the league, and his team, in full health, is set up to maximize his every advantage. It's crazy to think we're about to see dominance like the postseason run of the 2001 Lakers (losing only one game in the entire playoffs), but I think it's in play.

2013 Early Entry Analysis: Deadline Decisions

2011 Edition

2012 Edition

With the NCAA tournament concluded, it's time to look at the NBA Draft's looming early entry decisions. For the kids involved, it's hardly an easy decision to make, and it's simply not an exact science.

The general logic is: if a player is viewed as a consensus lottery pick, it's better to go than stay. On the one hand, players can go back to school, work on their games, and improve their draft stock. Or, in a draft process judged on potential, they could fail to meet the usually ridiculous expectations set out for them, and lose some of the allure from their breakout year.

In 2011, four players chose to go back to school: Harrison Barnes, Jared Sullinger, Perry Jones, and Terrence Jones. I would argue that all four produced at similar levels in their extra season of college, but were picked apart for not expanding their games more. Three out of the four (excluding Barnes) paid a steep price in terms of draft potential.

In 2012, James McAdoo, Tony Mitchell, and Cody Zeller chose to go back to school, and despite not playing worse than they did as freshman, they didn't improve enough to satisfy some pretty lofty expectations, and have lost a little luster with regard to draft stock. It's not a fair world, but it is the world that these kids have to navigate. Here's a look at the perception of this year's prospects, based on mock drafts at Draftexpress and NBADraft.net, respectively.

NEED TO GO NOW (CONSENSUS 1ST ROUNDERS)

The shaded players are consensus lottery picks, and should definitely go. The others are consensus 1st rounders at this point.

At the beginning of the college basketball season, I mentioned that a few guys tend to appear out of nowhere. What an understatement. Guys like Marcus Smart and Victor Oladipo weren't even on the 1st round radar at the beginning of the season, and now both appear to be a high to mid lottery locks. As mentioned earlier, Tony Mitchell and James McAdoo have taken quite a hit, justified or not. And the Kentucky kids have fallen out of favor as well. Things can change quickly, so for players on this list, I'd think long and hard about the shot at a 1st round, guaranteed contract.

NEED TO THINK ABOUT IT (DEBATABLE 1ST ROUNDERS)

All these guys have had some time in the sun over the course of the season, being hailed as 1st round talents. I think that key determinants for these guys should include (in some order): development potential over the summer, likely team exposure (aka tournament success) relative to this past season, and progress towards a degree. The first one applies to the guys like Goodwin and Austin. The second applies to the Michigan trio and Shane Larkin. The third applies to juniors that may be headed for late 1st / early 2nd status anyway, but could finish their degree if they stay one more year.