2012 Early Entry Analysis: Deadline Decisions

It's a little earlier than last year's post, but if the NCAA can move up its deadlines out of convenience, then who can't? Just like last year, this is not an attempt to definitively say any single prospect should or should not leave school. It is merely a subjective view of what 3 popular draft websites think of their likely positions in the 2012 draft.

NEED TO GO NOW (Consensus 1st Rounder)

The highlighted players are consensus lottery selections, while the rest are rated as 1st round picks by all 3 referenced draft websites. It's interesting to look at the draft statuses of Harrison Barnes, Jared Sullinger, Perry Jones, and Terrence Jones. All 4 players were consensus lottery picks last year, with potential draft slots from 3-14. They all went back to school for a chance to win it all, and they got to the Elite 8, Final 4, Elite 8, and a national championship, respectively. It's also safe to say that all of them will be drafted lower than they were last year (Terrence Jones was a consensus lottery pick last year). For those who say you can't put a price on the college experience, consider the following:

• In the 2011 draft, the last 8 lottery picks (6-14) signed contracts worth an average $6 million in the 1st 3 years, guaranteed. Picks 15-20 signed contracts worth an average of $4 million (difference of $2 million).
• Based on last year, the average 3 year contract value by draft pick slot was: $11 million (1-5), $7mm (6-10), $5 million (11-15), $4 million (16-20), $3.2 million (21-25), $2.7 million (26-30)

The decision to go back to school gave all 4 players another year of scholarship benefits and college competition, but easily cost each of them at least $500,000 depending on where they get drafted this year.

SHOULD CONSIDER LEAVING

Relative to last year, it feels like there's a little less variety in where players are getting drafted. In particular, none of these 5 players looks like they could sneak into the lottery at this point.

TAKING A RISK

Again, not a lot of controversy here.

REAL THINKING NEEDS TO BE DONE: Cody Zeller, James McAdoo

The first two are consensus top 5 picks in next year's draft. It's hard to say what that means in terms of this year's draft, but there's a definite interest in both of these guys at the next level. Whether their potential is worth a top 10 pick this year is hopefully what their coaches are trying to figure out for them right now. Because, as last year proved for several top flight prospects, places in the NBA draft are fleeting, even for the best prospects.