A Bobcats Plan For The 2013 Draft (and Beyond)

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(2012 Edition)

The Bobcats are entering Year 3 of their rebuild. That's right, year 3. Aside from telegraphing a name change, and setting the record for regular season futility, the roster now sports some younger players. A quick look at the current roster shows eight players under contract, and $41mm of salary committed for next year before this year's 1st round draft pick and a decision on Gerald Henderson's free agency (among others).

As far as building a championship contender, the team is not that close. The roster has starter/rotation level players (Walker, Sessions, Biyombo, Henderson) as well as a few potential rotation guys (Taylor, Kidd-Gilchrist, McRoberts). However, every NBA champion of the last 25 years had at least one All-NBA player (1st or 2nd team). Take a look at the 2013 All-NBA teams:

Point Guards: Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook, Tony Parker (no Derrick Rose, Rajon Rondo)
Shooting Guards: Kobe Bryant, James Harden, Dwyane Wade
Forwards: Lebron James, Kevin Durant, Carmelo Anthony, Blake Griffin, David Lee, Paul George (no Kevin Love)
Centers: Tim Duncan, Marc Gasol, Dwight Howard (no Andrew Bynum)

It's important to remember that, aside from this list, there's quite a few up-and-coming youngsters that will compete for these spots. So, while finding an All-NBA talent somewhere in this year's draft is not impossible, it will take some conviction. And while these predictions are as likely to be wrong as anyone's on the Internet, consider: based on this blog's draft recommendations the last two years (2011 and 2012), the Bobcats last five draft picks would have been Kawhi Leonard, Kemba Walker, Jeremy Tyler, Andre Drummond, and Quincy Miller. That roster might look a little better than the current one.

WHAT'S THE PLAN?

Acquiring young talent should remain at the top of the Bobcats' priority list, and there are a few intriguing pieces that could be had. Both Thomas Robinson and Derrick Williams have been made available for the right price, and either player still has potential upside at the power forward spot worth exploring. Outside of such deals for young guys with rookie deals, free agent acquisitions would probably lean towards over-paying, given the current playoff prospects of the team. With all that in mind, the Bobcats should...

TRADE THE #4 PICK TO MINNESOTA FOR DERRICK WILLIAMS AND PICKS #9 AND #26.

Minnesota is looking to get Victor Oladipo in this year's draft. However, it's important to note that while the Bobcats and Timberwolves could have the same opinion of him, his value his higher within Minnesota's team context. Playing alongside Rubio, Love, and probably Pekovic, Oladipo could be unleashed as a defensive stopper, transition monster, and part-time offensive creator. Charlotte would need him to bear more responsibility on offense, and that may not be his game. Assuming that this deal is really there to be had, the Bobcats could still go after an All-NBA talent at #9, while buying low on Williams. And, with the  #9 pick, the Bobcats should...

DRAFT MICHAEL CARTER-WILLIAMS. 

As far as potential All-NBA talents, I think he's the best prospect in the class. If the NBA Finals proved anything, it's that consistent play-making threats may be as scarce as consistent three point shooting. MCW can play both guard spots, provide NBA caliber passing from day one, substantially improve the offensive numbers of less skilled teammates in the half-court (Biyombo, MKG), and ignite a far more potent transition attack.

As for playing with Kemba Walker, it could be a very complementary match. MCW played off Brandon Triche at Syracuse, and the tandem alternated bringing the ball up, initiating the offense, and looking to score vs create. Walker is the kind of guard whose scoring instincts could mesh extremely well with Carter-Williams as a co-point guard.

Other Upside picks with All-NBA potential (in order, if available): Shabazz Muhammad, Steven Adams, Anthony Bennett

If those guys are unavailable, then there are still players that could be above-average starters and address an area of need for the Bobcats. Of that group, I'd lean towards Caldwell-Pope, who sports a complete offensive arsenal (including much-needed outside shooting), a good motor, and can contribute across the box score and on defense.

Fit Picks for the Bobcats: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cody Zeller, Ben McLemore, Alex Len

If the proposed trade went through, the #26 pick would also belong to the Bobcats. There a few ways to go in that scenario. Given the Bobcats situation, I would look more for team-oriented players, that have the ability to plug into a specific role quickly. Two seem like good bets, depending if the Bobcats go big or small with their lottery pick:

If they go big: SOLOMON HILL. The Kawhi Leonard comparisons feel lazy given Leonard's NBA Finals performance, but before his transcendant 2013 playoffs, Kawhi and Hill offered somewhat similar profiles. Hill brings 3 point shooting, great energy with regard to defense and rebounding, and a good understanding of fitting into a role within a team context. I like his potential as a glue guy small forward, and likely wouldn't take away from the offensive or defensive side of the floor. How often can that be said about a guy near the end of the 1st round?

If they go small: MIKE MUSCALA. He's a player with defined NBA attributes (NBA size and skills at the 4 or 5), who looks like a rotational player at minimum, and a very versatile big at best (stretch 4 shooting with the low post game to punish switches in the pick and roll, competent and developed in all other facets of the game). He would be a nice complement to Biyombo on both ends of the floor, particularly on offense.

Other picks (in order, if available): Ricky Ledo, Jackie Carmichael, C.J. Leslie, Lucas Noguiera

Assuming these moves were made, the Bobcats roster could look like:

Point Guard: Kemba Walker, Ramon Sessions
Shooting Guard: Michael Carter-Williams, Gerald Henderson, Jeff Taylor
Small Forward: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Solomon Hill
Bigs: Bismack Biyombo, Derrick Williams, Byron Mullens, Josh McRoberts, Brendan Haywood

That's a crunch time lineup with two play-makers, explosive athleticism at every position, poor floor spacing, and youthful inexperience. It's debatable whether anyone on this theoretical team would have All-NBA potential (I'd say MCW does), but it has significantly more potential than last year's roster. Someday the Bobcats have to turn potential into playoff wins, but that's not today... it's 2015.

Doc Rivers Is Smart to Jump Ship

Over the last few days, rumors have swirled that the Clippers are working to complete a trade that would bring over Kevin Garnett from the Celtics. As a consequence of that deal, the Celtics would be willing to let Doc Rivers out of his current contract, and let him leave to coach the Clippers. There are a few reasons why Doc is probably making a good move for himself:

REASON 1. RIVERS' PERCEPTION EXCEEDS HIS PRODUCTION.

Looking at the regular season winning percentage of last year's active NBA coaches, a few things can be observed. First, the most common thread linking coaches with .600 career winning percentages (52+ wins per season) appears to be the presence of a consensus All-NBA talent on the roster. Be it Popovich (Duncan / Parker), Thibodeau (Rose), Spoelstra (James / Wade), or Brooks (Durant / Westbrook), it's hard to win big consistently without big talent in its prime. Rivers (.554 win pct) is not immune to this phenomenon. With the current Celtics roster, it's arguable that Rivers won't have a single All-NBA player on his roster next year.

The obvious counter-argument is that, of all the highlighted coaches, only four have rings, and Rivers is one of them. Doesn't that count for something?

REASON 2. RIVERS' RECORD IS LARGELY MEDIOCRE WITHOUT THE BIG 3.

For GM's making a coaching hire, the most impressive coaches seem to be the ones that create success in a variety of situations. Coaches like George Karl and Rick Adelman have led teams to play .600 ball in a variety of circumstances. Rivers does not boast the same resume. Pick from the following hypothetical coaches to run a team:

• 876 regular season games, .506 winning pct, 5 playoff berths (with 2 teams), conference semis (2x)
• 614 regular season games, .454 winning pct, 4 playoff berths (1 team), conference semis (3x)
• 585 regular season games, .467 winning pct, 4 playoff berths (2 teams), 1st round exit (4x)

Both Scott Skiles and Lawrence Frank appear to have better results than Doc Rivers' pre-Big 3 resume, and both those coaches are viewed with far less reverence than Rivers as a potential hire. And for those that assume all title-winning coaches have a similar drop off, take a look at Rick Carlisle's record before arriving in Dallas:

• 492 regular season games, .571 winning pct, 5 playoff berths (2 teams), conference finals (2x) 

Based on his coaching record, Carlisle has demonstrated the ability to succeed in three different situations. Doc Rivers had never won a playoff series as a coach before the arrival of Garnett and Ray Allen in Boston.

REASON 3. NBA COACHES HAVE AN INCREASINGLY SHORT SHELF LIFE.

Making the playoffs as an NBA coach does nothing to insure job security from one year to the next. The Nuggets, Clippers, Hawks, Nets, and Grizzlies are all looking for new coaches after making the playoffs, and it can be argued that only two of those teams failed to meet expectations. This goes beyond "what have you done or me lately?," and into some previously unknown criteria for doing a job well enough to keep it.

Not only that, but several recent coaching hires (here and here and here) indicate that teams are certainly entertaining lower levels of experience when evaluating hires relative to the usual re-tread choices. It's more than likely that Rivers' luster as a coach would fade as the Celtics descend into a rebuild / re-load phase, and his appeal as a hire could be at its peak for the foreseeable future.

CONCLUSION

For the record, there's nothing wrong with Doc Rivers wanting to leave Boston for a better professional opportunity. Same for KG. Professional sports are unlike most other careers, in that opportunities for success can be rare and fleeting. However, if there are bones to pick, here they are. 

• Kevin Garnett planned to retire a Celtic four months ago. He was a little upset when Ray Allen decided to bail on the Celtics and chase a title somewhere else. The only way for KG to leave the Celtics in the next two seasons is if he chooses to, but he's apparently leaving the Celtics, and his teammates, to chase a title somewhere else.
• Doc Rivers wondered aloud why he would ever leave when he signed his five year contract two years ago. He's likely the highest paid coach in the NBA. He's won a title with this organization, and his front office has repeatedly demonstrated a willingness to work with him. Aside from the current roster, what justifies leaving Boston other than chasing the nearest potential championship?  

Both these guys are still under contract with the Celtics, and for whatever their reasons, they're leaving that organization for the prospect of getting a ring with a "better" organization. I'm probably missing something, but this whole thing seems like it's one ten minute interview away from something we've all seen, and collectively derided, before.

Heat-Pacers Summary

As the 2013 playoff series unfold, the old box score stats may not tell the whole story. These summaries will look at each series from the perspective of plus/minus. With an adjustment for minutes played, Oden's Knee will identify the players that stood out in each series, for good and bad reasons alike.

My Prediction Was: Heat in 5.

Best Plus Minus: Lebron James (+28 in 303 minutes). What is there to say? The most impressive thing about James in this series had to be the variety of defensive assignments. There aren't many players walking the planet that can credibly match up with Paul George and David West on consecutive possessions, but that's the kind of thing he's capable of doing. Against the Spurs, I'm guessing Parker will get to see this defensive versatility first-hand, a la Derrick Rose in the 2011 playoffs. 

Worst Plus Minus: D.J. Augustin (-62 in 98 minutes). The second unit of the Pacers had very little success against the Heat, and Augustin was not set up for success against the larger, long-armed, athletic point guard tandem of Miami (Chalmers and Cole). In his defense, the units without West, Hibbert, or George had very little chance of generating easy offense, while missing the core of the team's defensive identity inside.

Most Valuable Player: Lance Stephenson (Net +40 in 264 minutes). For two of the three playoff series this year, the Pacers' best player in my net plus/minus has been Lance Stephenson. It always sounded a little strange when All-Star caliber guys like Hibbert and George talked about how important it was to get Lance going, but they clearly know this team way better than everyone else. There's an almost Westbrook-like flair to his reckless pushes in transition, and his fearless instigation of virtually every opposing player within earshot. He's not the same talent as Westbrook, but he clearly serves the same role as the edge / X-factor for his team. Hopefully, OKC's struggles this spring have driven home the point that, for better or worse, some players are more than the sum of their raw box score numbers.

Least Valuable Player: Dwyane Wade (Net -21 in 264 minutes). Wade's likely physical struggles have been well documented, and apparently with good reason. It'll be interesting to see him matched up against Ginobli, a player with a similar perceptible decline in production relative to reputation. 

Jerome James Award: None.