As the end of the college basketball regular season approaches, GM's and front offices are honing in on the best talent in the upcoming NBA draft (at least the ones that aren't complaining about the class endlessly). Which players offer the best chance at all-NBA level production?
Tough Omissions: Nerlens Noel, Anthony Bennett
I'd say that both stand a good chance of making me look stupid in a short amount of time. Noel has unbelievable defensive ability, and Anthony Bennett is captivating to watch in a game. Since I'm only allowing three players, I leave these guys one cut below due to long term uncertainty about offense and positional fit, respectively. Also, I'm a little relieved Steven Adams from Pitt likely isn't coming out: if he declares, I may re-shuffle this a little bit.
Here are my best guesses for All-NBA talent in the 2013 Draft.
3. Shabazz Muhammad
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He has not had the easiest road through his freshman season. A combination of injuries, eligibility issues, illness, and the current mess of the UCLA basketball program have been more than a fair share of hurdles to overcome. Meanwhile, he's demonstrated scoring prowess from all over the floor, palpable intensity on the court, and a willingness to take the big shot (maybe too willing).
I see a potentially very good NBA scorer: scores on a variety of shots (including decent efficiency from three and generating free throw attempts). There is a chance that he's developed earlier than most (a la O.J. Mayo, Tyreke Evans), and his playmaking ability is limited (read: A-TO), but I think there's still some upside for him in the NBA.
(Also, since he's 6-6, can someone explain why so many people refer to him as a "prototypical NBA small forward?" Here are the respective heights of Lebron, Durant, Carmelo, Rudy Gay, Paul George, and Luol Deng: 6-8, 6-9, 6-8, 6-8, 6-8, 6-9. That's basically the small forward position of today's NBA, and Muhammad is two inches shorter than all those guys. I think he's a two in the NBA.)
2. Michael Carter-Williams
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His initial hype this season was probably more stats-based (over 10 assists per game) than anything, and as those numbers have fallen in conference play, so has the attention. His season to date has been somewhat inconsistent game to game (partially driven by the Southerland issue, I think), and his flashier pass attempts lead to unnecessary turnovers at times. Having said that, he has more potential than I think he gets credit for.
He has NBA level quickness and athleticism, which allows him to generate steals, push pace, get to the line, and finish in highlight fashion (I know everyone saw that game, but there are other examples). His court vision (arguably the toughest skill to acquire) would be high end at the NBA level from day one, and that trait has meaningfully affected Syracuse's play this year. The form on his jump shot seems to indicate that shot selection has as much to do with poor percentages as anything. And, he clearly relishes being "the guy" in crunch time situations.
I believe that, like Joe Johnson, Evan Turner, and James Harden before him, he'd be miscast matched up against point guards full time: meaning, I'd play him at both guard spots at the next level. He'd have to add some weight at shooting guard (although Kevin Martin has been a pretty good offensive pro with a similar frame), but he could create mismatches at either spot. I think he's a pretty unique talent at the next level, and can't wait to see what he can do in the NBA.
1. Isaiah Austin
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He could weigh anywhere from 200-230 pounds right now. That, combined with his height (7-1) and wingspan (7-3), limits his ability to bang in the paint when opponents have lower centers of gravity and more girth. And whenever someone of his size shoots any shot that isn't a dunk attempt, it feels like a win for the defense. And he doesn't have the same explosive athleticism of an Anthony Davis.
Austin could meaningfully impact both ends of the NBA floor. His offensive skill-set (developing post-up game, shooting and reasonable ball-handling out to 18+ feet) are replicated by few NBA players that match his size. Defensively, he alters shots, moves his feet smartly, and rebounds well. And, as far as weight, there are numerous examples of players both outgrowing their thin frames and learning to produce regardless (Kevin Durant, Kevin Garnett, Tyson Chandler, Marcus Camby).
The most important factor to me: he clearly has a motor. He plays through fatigue, inconsistent offensive touches, and the bumps and bruises guys his size accumulate. He's a demonstrable leader of his team, and he seems to love playing basketball (the most common complaint against players of his size). And if he does get to 240-250 pounds, he'll be a force in the NBA.
Postscript
Do you see this draft differently, love or hate the guys I've highlighted or omitted, or just want to troll? This is the post that invites feedback. Put up the three guys you think will be the best pros out of the 2013 draft. If you end up even partially right, you can gloat about it forever. If not, no one's going to remember anyway.
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