2013 Edition
2012 Edition
ASSUMED HE'S NOT COMING OUT: Joel Embiid
For the record, I'm assuming that he's not coming out this year. If he was coming out this year, he'd be the most likely All-NBA guy from this class. His physical skill set is remarkable for a guy his size, his acumen for development is impressive considering his low exposure to high level basketball, and I'd echo everything that the Internet says about his upside. Did I conveniently assume he's not coming out, going against everything we've learned about the majority of top 5 picks in college basketball, so that I could focus on some other guys in this post?
Probably.
TOUGHEST OMISSIONS:
Aaron Gordon
As good as Gordon is on defense, I don't see a very functional player in a spacing-critical NBA offense, aside from better-than-you-think passing. What is the probability of Gordon becoming a passable scorer at the small forward position without a jump shot? He was one of my favorite guys to watch going into the season, and while I'd still love to have him on my team, I'm just not sure a great defensive player without a jumper can dominate the NBA at the small forward position.
Noah Vonleh
Vonleh is a hard prospect not to like. His physical attributes seem outstanding for an NBA big, and he's already shown the beginnings of a useful jumper to keep defenses honest. The only knock I can come up with is that, despite his tangible attributes, he seems to play below the rim / struggle in close space more than I'd think he would. Seriously, that's all I could come up with. Very worried that he's going to make me look stupid in a few years.
IF ONLY I HAD THE GUTS: Zach LaVine
I admit, Steve Alford's rotations at UCLA are probably hiding several things about Zach LaVine. Does he want to be a point guard or shooting guard at the next level? Are his above-the-rim plays limited to the open court, or do they translate into good finishes in the halfcourt? In the limited time I've seen him, he's shown flashes of high level NBA athleticism, shooting, with enough ball-handling and passing. I see Klay Thompson with more spring, and a less accurate jumper.
And now, for the best prospects to eventually be All-NBA players...
3. Dante Exum
Relative to the other highly touted prospects, it feels like there's far less game footage to evaluate Exum. That seems typical for international prospects, but his potential is amazing. He has significant things to work on at the next level: is he a full time point guard or not (I think he's a play-making 2)? Can his jumper become reliable? Can he defend both guard spots (or either)? Despite these questions, it's pretty clear what he does bring. His athleticism and basketball IQ will likely translate to both guard spots on offense and defense, and he seems to have a clear #1 guy aura to him. To me, he's got almost as much physical potential as Andrew Wiggins, with less uncertainty about whether he wants to be "the guy." At the risk of sounding like a basketball xenophobe, if he had played college ball in the U.S., I wonder if he'd be my #1 prospect, as opposed to just behind the two guys ahead of him.
1B. Andrew Wiggins
So, given what I've said about Joel Embiid, I might be breaking one of my own rules, but I don't really have a choice. The Paul George comparisons are interesting, because while George's physical profile was pretty impressive as a 2010 draftee, I was hard-pressed to see a true NBA alpha dog lurking in there... and I was wrong. Watching Wiggins, he has the ability to do everything an NBA small forward can do at a high level (minus Lebron's passing, because no NBA small forward passes like Lebron). We'd all like to see him get to the rim consistently off the dribble. We'd all like to see him put his stamp on every minute he's in a game. But he clearly values playing high level defense, the ability to keep teammates' involved, and the necessity of taking the reins of a game when needed (read: the Florida game). All the pieces are there, as are the intangibles.
1A. Julius Randle
He has a T-Rex wingspan. He doesn't play above the rim. He doesn't always play with consistent effort. I just put those in there because I've read them from other people, because I'm skeptical of all those sentiments (except the wingspan, that can't be argued). What I see is a very polished offensive skill set, everywhere from the box to the high post. I see a rebounding monster, who attacks the ball off the glass. And while his wingspan doesn't necessarily allow him to block a ton of shots, he's got an impressive amount of footspeed and quickness for a 6"9, 250 pounder. It looks like the kind of quickness that would make him a good positional defender, able to handle switches in the pick-and-roll, which, combined with his general strength, should make him an above-average to good defender. I see a 20-10 machine, and the potential to be the #1 guy on a contender.
P.S. All the links provided are to the excellent video scouting reports put up by DraftExpress. For any NBA draft nerd, their site is basically impossible to ignore.
