SportVU Data: Identifying the League's Best... Drivers

With the release of SportVU camera tracking data to the general public via NBA.com, there's a whole new world of information available to try and figure out what's happening on an NBA court, and who's doing it well (or poorly). Really, an ideal application should be to identify the best players filling certain roles on a team, because good role players can swing a playoff series. While understanding all this data has to be in its infant stages, here's a quick look at a few things that seem useful right off the bat. The data is pulled from here, and some summary rules for how I cut the stats are included at the bottom of each post.

In today's NBA, the ability to create a good shot out of nothing has value. Similarly, players that effectively drive to the rim can warp a defense and, if done well, produce points for himself and his team in an efficient way. Here's a look, through the season to date, at some of the most prolific (and efficient) drivers to the hoop. They're identified by how many points a player produces per drive, for himself and for his team.

A few thoughts on the players listed above:

• While they may not be getting a lot of the All-Star fan vote at this point, hopefully coaches have noticed Ty Lawson and Jeff Teague. They're driving to the rim a lot, and producing points efficiently for their teams, primarily via shots for their teammates. Given the offensive burdens that both guys carry, that should merit consideration.
• Patrick Beverley brings other things to the table (notably, on-ball defense) better than Jeremy Lin. But, as a driver to the rim, Lin has been much more efficient (1.15 points per drive) than Beverley (0.99). Now, whether the Houston offense is designed for two guys to drive the ball, with Dwight Howard inside, remains to be seen. 
• I'm not sure whether Tyreke Evans and Jrue Holiday being on this list is a testament to their individual talents blossoming in New Orleans, or the power of Ryan Anderson's otherworldly outside shooting, or both. I haven't watched enough Pelicans basketball to guess, so I won't.
• Isaiah Thomas is probably someone I should be watching a lot more of. How he manages to produce just some of his offensive numbers, given everything that swirls around him in Sacramento, plus his height, plus his "Mr. Irrelevant" draft status, seems like a great feel-good story.

Eligibility Rules:

 - Top 100 drives per game

 - Must have produced at least 1.15 team points per drive (average for the group)

 - Ranked by drives per minute

SportVU Data: Identifying the League's Best... Rim Protectors

With the release of SportVU camera tracking data to the general public via NBA.com, there's a whole new world of information available to try and figure out what's happening on an NBA court, and who's doing it well (or poorly). Really, an ideal application should be to identify the best players filling certain roles on a team, because good role players can swing a playoff series. While understanding all this data has to be in its infant stages, here's a quick look at a few things that seem useful right off the bat. The data is pulled from here, and some summary rules for how I cut the stats are included at the bottom of each post.

In today's NBA, the two most efficient shots tend to be corner three's and attempts at the rim. In fact, over the last five years, NBA players shoot an average of around 60% on attempts at the rim. Based on that, players that can lower opponent's success at that shot can be game-changers. Here are standouts at defending the rim so far this season.

Chris Kaman, Lakers (opponents shooting 36.4% on 5.9 attempts in 16.9 minutes)
Robin Lopez, Blazers (opponents shooting 44.4% on 10.6 attempts in 30.8 minutes)
Roy Hibbert, Pacers (opponents shooting 40.5% on 9.6 attempts in 31.1 minutes)
Vitor Faverani, Celtics (opponents shooting 44.8% on 4.6 attempts in 15.1 minutes)
Andrew Bogut, Warriors (opponents shooting 45.9% on 8.3 attempts in 28 minutes)
Brook Lopez, Nets (opponents shooting 39.7% on 9.1 attempts in 30.7 minutes)
Omer Asik, Rockets (opponents shooting 43.2% on 5.2 attempts in 18.3 minutes)
Tim Duncan, Spurs (opponents shooting 43.4% on 7.6 attempts in 27.9 minutes)
Serge Ibaka, Thunder (opponents shooting 45.3% on 9.1 attempts in 33.8 minutes)
Ekpe Udoh, Bucks (opponents shooting 45.2% on 5.8 attempts in 22.4 minutes)

A few things that jump out at me about this list.

• How about the Lopez brothers, and I do mean both of them. Robin Lopez is part of a really fun-to-watch Blazers team, and his play allowing LaMarcus Aldridge to slide over to power forward is an under-rated reason why. Brook has always been chided for his lack of rebounding, but who knew he was this active (and effective) challenging shots at the rim?
• It seems like people are really harping on Omer Asik after whatever happened the last few weeks in Houston, as though it negatively affects his prospects as a player. Well, he's still bringing his bread and butter to the table this season, and these kinds of contributions matter a lot in the playoffs.
• He didn't make the list, but in case you're curious, Andre Drummond's overall blocks are down this year, but he's holding opponents to 45.7% at the rim on 7.8 attempts. I could've eliminated guys like Kaman and Faverani for low minutes totals, but then again, that's what everyone said about Drummond last year.

Rim Protector Eligibility Rules:
 - Top 100 players in opponent field goal attempts at the rim
 - Played more than 13 games
 - Played more than 15 minutes per game
 - Allow opponents to shoot 46% or less

SportVU Data: Identifying the League's Best... Catch and Shoot Players

With the release of SportVU camera tracking data to the general public via NBA.com, there's a whole new world of information available to try and figure out what's happening on an NBA court, and who's doing it well (or poorly). Really, an ideal application should be to identify the best players filling certain roles on a team, because good role players can swing a playoff series. While understanding all this data has to be in its infant stages, here's a quick look at a few things that seem useful right off the bat. The data is pulled from here, and some summary rules for how I cut the stats are included at the bottom of each post.

CATCH AND SHOOT: THREES

In a league with increasingly zone-based defensive principles, spacing is at a premium. As a result, so are players that stretch a defense with the threat of catching and shooting the ball from deep. Through the season to date, the following players stand out in executing this role.

Gerald Green, Suns (5.6 attempts per game in 27.8 minutes, 38.4%) 

Tim Hardaway Jr., Knicks (3.1 attempts per game in 16.1 minutes, 42.3%)

Ryan Anderson, Pelicans (6.6 attempts per game in 35.7 minutes, 51.5%)

Cartier Martin, Hawks (3.4 attempts per game in 19.5 minutes, 40.8%)

Martell Webster, Wizards (5.6 attempts per game in 32.7 minutes, 41.1%)
Channing Frye, Suns (4.3 attempts per game in 26.9 minutes, 41.2%)

Klay Thompson, Warriors (5.9 attempts per game in 37.7 minutes, 47.8%)

JR Smith, Knicks (4.8 attempts per game in 31.1 minutes, 41.3%)

Randy Foye, Nuggets (3.9 attempts per game in 25.6 minutes, 40.5%)

Trevor Ariza, Wizards (5.3 attempts per game in 36.1 minutes, 48.6%)

Looking at that list, a few things jump out. First, I'm surprised that the Knicks and Wizards haven't been better offensive teams to date, since both Wall and Anthony seem to have decent safety valve options on the wing. Second, Ryan Anderson and Klay Thompson are off the charts efficient, to the point where they must warp a defensive scheme whenever they're in a game (or should). Third, if anyone wonders why 38% was the cutoff for this list, it's because I wasn't going to omit Gerald Green, who's shooting more catch and shoot threes per minute than anyone in the league, and hitting a respectable amount of them.

CATCH AND SHOOT: TWOS

The two point catch and shoot specialists are purposely attempting the most inefficient shot in basketball, and attempting to do so at a high level. While it's easy to say that midrange jumpers should never be attempted, at the end of a shot clock, or against a good defense (or both), sometimes a player on the floor has to be able to hit this shot when it's conceded. Through the season to date, the following players stand out in executing this role.

Darrell Arthur, Nuggets (4.1 attempts per game in 18.1 minutes, 46.3%)

Jason Smith, Pelicans (6.2 attempts per game in 28 minutes, 48.4%)

Luis Scola, Pacers (3.3 attempts per game in 18.5 minutes, 54.6%)

LaMarcus Aldridge, Blazers (5.5 attempts per game in 37.1 minutes, 50.9%)

Al Horford, Hawks (4.5 attempts per game in 32.8 minutes, 51.1%)

Andrea Bargnani, Knicks (3.9 attempts per game in 31.2 minutes, 59.0%)

Dirk Nowitzki, Mavericks (4.0 attempts per game in 32.5 minutes, 55.0%)

Serge Ibaka, Thunder (4.1 attempts per game in 34.6 minutes, 46.3%)

David West, Pacers (3.5 attempts per game in 30.4 minutes, 57.1%)

Chris Bosh, Heat (3.1 attempts per game in 28.7 minutes, 45.2%)

A few thoughts here. First, it's interesting how many good teams (Heat, Pacers, Thunder, Blazers) seem to have someone who's very good at hitting these shots. Second, for all the heat he's taken for his entire career, at the very least Andrea Bargnani has been a lethal pick and pop guy this year, as long as he's inside the arc. Finally, is there anything Al Horford can't do? If the Hawks aren't trying to contend this year, and are planning on pulling the plug in February, he has to be the hottest commodity at the trade deadline for a contender (e.g. Clippers, Thunder).

3 Point Catch and Shoot Eligibility Rules:

 - Top 100 in total Catch and Shoot Attempts

 - At least 10 games played

 - Volume Shooters (ranked by attempts per minute)

 - 38+% on attempts

2 Point Catch and Shoot Eligibility Rules:

 - Top 100 in total Catch and Shoot Attempts

 - At least 10 games played

 - Volume Shooters (ranked by attempts per minute)

 - 45+%  on attempts

2 Quick Reasons to Wait and See With This Year's Bobcats

This year's Bobcats are off to a 6-6 start, which is certainly better than expected for a team that was rated one step up from "intentionally tanking" by most people who follow the NBA. While there are any number of potential reasons for this start (Steve Clifford running a better defense, a year of maturation for a young core, injury luck), the real question is... should fans get excited about the Bobcats' season, and maybe hope for a playoff berth? At this point, probably not.

1. THE 2013 BOBCATS DON'T LOOK LIKE A PLAYOFF TEAM BASED ON POINT DIFFERENTIAL.

Over the last 12 seasons, there's a pretty strong relationship between a team's point differential per game (net points per game) and the number of regular season games they win. Just to prove this makes sense, the dot hanging around by itself in the lower left corner is the 2011-2012 Bobcats. So where do the 2013-2014 Bobcats stack up? Well, based on a -3.8 differential through 12 games, they'd project to about 31 wins over an 82 game season. 

Of course, there's nothing that says the Bobcats would simply stay at their current level of play all season. Which is a very stilted transition to...

2. LAST YEAR'S BOBCATS ACTUALLY LOOKED BETTER THROUGH 12 GAMES.

Most people know that the Bobcats started 7-5 last year. Most people also remember how they finished. The thing that gets forgotten? People liked the Mike Dunlap hire, and thought the team's start validated that hire. Through twelve games, his system and player development was showing through. The scary part? Through 12 games last year, the Bobcats point differential was actually better than this year's. In fact, last year's team looked like a 35 win team through 12 games. What happened over the last 70 games of that season? Frankly, a lot of things happened, and few of them were good.

LET'S JUST WAIT AND SEE.

There are so many variables to play out over the next several months, the truth is we haven't learned anything definitive yet. At the beginning of the season, most people would have pegged the Bobcats win total somewhere around 25, and the team is basically tracking somewhere in that neighborhood. Let's see how Al Jefferson integrates into the offense and defense on a full time basis. Let's see if Henderson can break out of his mini-slump. Let's see if Walker can continue to play through any nagging injury imaginable. We've got plenty of time to make bold proclamations we can't take back.

Preseason View of the 2014 Draft Class

2012 Edition
2013 Edition

With the college basketball season already underway, it's a good time to identify what prospects NBA teams will be paying attention to as the season progresses. DraftExpress and NBADraft.net are my sources for the mock draft data, because they're as good as anyone doing it. Now, this is never an exact science, especially at this point in the year; only 12 of the 30 players in each site's 1st round mock a year ago ended up drafted in the 1st round (14 out of 30 in the 2012 draft). But it can at least provide some insight into what random college basketball game you'll use to fight insomnia in January. Without further ado...

TIER 1: LOTTERY PICKS

At this point in the season, there's not a lot of debate about the top of the draft. Aside from the significant divide on Aaron Gordon, four of the top five are set. In what feels like a broken record, Kentucky has a lot of players on this list. As does Kansas. While I think this makes several draftees harder to evaluate, that's the scouts' problem. Interesting note: based on the last two years, roughly half of these players won't be lottery picks this year. For every Cody Zeller, there's a Tony Mitchell; for every Anthony Davis, there's a Perry Jones. If I had to pick a fall risk, I'd look at Marcus Smart, if only because he's experiencing a Cody Zeller-like jump in expectations as a college sophomore, and without a perceived leap in production, I could see a freshman prospect like Harrison over-taking him.

TIER 2: 1ST ROUND CONSIDERATION

As is typical, the bottom of the first round is an ever-changing mix of guys who surprisingly went back to school (read: Poythress), role players that could step into larger roles (read: Harrell, McGary), and more polished underclassmen who are more likely pitching to fill a specific role at the next level (read: McDermott, Payne, Reddic).

As always, it'll be interesting the players who skyrocket from "not on the board" to "lottery pick" come June. In 2012, it was Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Dion Waiters, and Damian Lillard. In 2013, it was Anthony Bennett, Victor Oladipo, and Kelly Olynyk. Can't wait to see, and argue about, who those guys are this year.

History Doesn't Look Kindly on the Heat's Three-Peat Chances

As the NBA season is about to get underway, there are several interesting story-lines to follow that will shape the playoffs. What will Derrick Rose look like as he returns to action? When will Russell Westbrook come back, and how will he look? What can the Houston Rockets do with arguably the two best players at their respective positions? However, the primary story-line that everyone will likely turn to, particularly in late April, is the Miami Heat's quest for a third consecutive title. Can Lebron create a three-peat, when only three NBA franchises have accomplished this in the history of the league?

While there are countless variables that will factor into the answer come June, there is one under-reported facet to this story. In order to win three straight titles, the Miami Heat will have to make their fourth consecutive NBA Finals, and win it. Why does this matter? Well, since the legendary Russell Celtics, there have been nine teams to go to three straight NBA Finals in 46 years. How did those teams do in their respective quests for an NBA championship?

NOT APPLICABLE (1994 Chicago Bulls, 1999 Chicago Bulls)

Questioning the credentials of Michael Jordan as the undisputed greatest player of all time is a fun way to waste hours of your life, and likely get in a fistfight, but in this case, it's not warranted. Despite the three championships prior to both seasons, there's no rational way to say these teams mounted legitimate title contenders while losing his Airness... twice.

LOST IN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS (1990 Lakers, 2003 Lakers, 2011 Lakers)

For the 1990 Lakers, replacing Kareem Abdul-Jabbar may have proved too tall an order, although they did return to the Finals in 1991. In the case of the '03 and '11 Lakers, in both cases the core rotations were intact, but both fell to eventual champions in the Spurs and Mavericks, respectively.

LOST IN CONFERENCE FINALS (1971 Lakers, 1991 Pistons)

Someone significantly older than me can sit down and tell all of us what happened to the '71 Lakers. However, the story of MJ overcoming the Jordan rules, and finally defeating his nemesis Pistons on the way to becoming basketball royalty, is the stuff of legend to a somewhat younger generation. (If I'm a Pistons fan, 1991 doesn't bother me as much as the 1988 NBA Finals, particularly the end of this (go to the 1:40 mark): what Finals game gets decided with fans on the court in the last three seconds?)

LOST IN NBA FINALS (1987 Celtics)

It's hard to believe, but in the 80's, the Celtics and Lakers only played against each other in the NBA Finals three times. The Lakers would make it back to the Finals three more times after 1987 (winning once), but the Celtics never did. This also gave Los Angeles the head-to-head title for the decade (2-1).

WHAT IT MEANS

Take a look at the list above, and two things should jump out. One, out of the six teams that tried to make the Finals four consecutive times, it only happened once. Second, of the six teams that tried to win a championship, it has never happened. These teams were led by all-time greats in the sport, and didn't face the randomness of a one-and-done postseason tournament. Yet, none of the six teams could do it.

I'm not brave enough to predict that the Heat won't win it all this year. They have the best player on the planet, and an experienced roster. But they've also played three seven game series in the last two playoffs, and came early fan-exodus close to losing. Plus, last year proved that every team is one starter's injury away from being mediocre. If I were a betting man, and I could have Miami or the field, I think I'd grudgingly take the field.

Regardless, it should be fun to watch.

Defining an NBA Franchise Player

The hoopla surrounding Dwight Howard's free agent decision seemed pretty high for a guy who "led" his team to a first round sweep in the playoffs. Given the negative press he's gotten over the last few years, it's a reasonable question to ask: should it really matter to the rest of the NBA world what he decides to do? Should he even be considered a franchise player?

Since the goal of every NBA team is (read: hopefully is) winning a championship, finding the pieces that can make that happen should be of paramount importance. While playing styles, coaching changes, and key rotational players will always move the needle at the margin, high level talent remains the necessary piece for winning. Here's a look at the individual awards of the last twenty NBA champions:

Looking at these awards, a few things jump out. Only one out of three MVP's have won it all in June. Defensive Player of the Year is even less reliable as an indicator. While every championship team has had at least one All-Star (the 1999 season didn't have All-Stars, but I'm sure Tim Duncan would have made it), the All-Star roster seems to be a wide net to cast for franchise players. Of the group, almost every NBA champion had at least one All-NBA 2nd team member the season they won*. So that's the best group to use. Looking at the last three years of All-NBA teams, I would group franchise players into three tiers.

TIER 1 (SURE-FIRE FRANCHISE PLAYERS): Blake Griffin, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Paul, Kevin Durant, Lebron James, Marc Gasol, Tony Parker

These seven guys have no significant injury issues going into next season, and are unlikely to face a steep age-related declines over the next few years.

TIER 2 (TBD BASED ON INJURY): Amare Stoudemire, Andrew Bynum, Derrick Rose, Dwight Howard, Dwyane Wade, Kevin Love, Kobe Bryant, Russell Westbrook

These eight players all faced some significant injury during the 2012-2013 season, and while a return to form is up for varying levels of debate, they've all made an All-NBA first or second team in the last three seasons.

TIER 3 (POSSIBLE): David Lee, Dirk Nowitzki, James Harden, Pau Gasol, Paul George, Rajon Rondo, Tim Duncan, Tyson Chandler

This group is more speculative than the others. They're either young guys with upside and a recent 3rd team berth to their credit (Lee, Harden, George, Rondo, Chandler) or veteran guys that might be able to re-capture their prior form for a year, a la Tim Duncan this year.

IS DWIGHT HOWARD A FRANCHISE PLAYER?

Based on the 15 players in the first two tiers, I'd argue that Howard represents the best prospect of the players currently available.

• First, his injury woes might be a lower hurdle to clear than the others on the Tier 2 list (e.g. Bynum, Rose). Despite missing something physically all year, he still led the league in rebounding and was a 3rd team All-NBA center. 
• Second, before this season, Dwight Howard had been the 1st Team All-NBA center for FIVE consecutive years. The only players who can also claim that are Lebron James and Kobe Bryant.
• Third, Howard has a consistent record of being part of competitive playoff teams (prior to this year), even without another All-NBA talent at his side.

Dwight Howard is a few years away from his best production as a pro, based on injuries and other factors. He's famous for undermining coaches and holding organizations hostage with his demands and indecision. But he's also the best big man on the planet when healthy, and a $20mm+ annual contract seems fair when considering what he brings to the table, and what similarly paid peers could bring instead.

*The only NBA champion that didn't have an All-NBA 2nd Teamer was the 1995 Houston Rockets, a defending champion where Hakeem Olajuwon was a 3rd Team player behind David Robinson and Shaquille O'Neal. He outplayed both on the way to his second consecutive title.

A Bobcats Plan For The 2013 Draft (and Beyond)

(2011 Edition)
(2012 Edition)

The Bobcats are entering Year 3 of their rebuild. That's right, year 3. Aside from telegraphing a name change, and setting the record for regular season futility, the roster now sports some younger players. A quick look at the current roster shows eight players under contract, and $41mm of salary committed for next year before this year's 1st round draft pick and a decision on Gerald Henderson's free agency (among others).

As far as building a championship contender, the team is not that close. The roster has starter/rotation level players (Walker, Sessions, Biyombo, Henderson) as well as a few potential rotation guys (Taylor, Kidd-Gilchrist, McRoberts). However, every NBA champion of the last 25 years had at least one All-NBA player (1st or 2nd team). Take a look at the 2013 All-NBA teams:

Point Guards: Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook, Tony Parker (no Derrick Rose, Rajon Rondo)
Shooting Guards: Kobe Bryant, James Harden, Dwyane Wade
Forwards: Lebron James, Kevin Durant, Carmelo Anthony, Blake Griffin, David Lee, Paul George (no Kevin Love)
Centers: Tim Duncan, Marc Gasol, Dwight Howard (no Andrew Bynum)

It's important to remember that, aside from this list, there's quite a few up-and-coming youngsters that will compete for these spots. So, while finding an All-NBA talent somewhere in this year's draft is not impossible, it will take some conviction. And while these predictions are as likely to be wrong as anyone's on the Internet, consider: based on this blog's draft recommendations the last two years (2011 and 2012), the Bobcats last five draft picks would have been Kawhi Leonard, Kemba Walker, Jeremy Tyler, Andre Drummond, and Quincy Miller. That roster might look a little better than the current one.

WHAT'S THE PLAN?

Acquiring young talent should remain at the top of the Bobcats' priority list, and there are a few intriguing pieces that could be had. Both Thomas Robinson and Derrick Williams have been made available for the right price, and either player still has potential upside at the power forward spot worth exploring. Outside of such deals for young guys with rookie deals, free agent acquisitions would probably lean towards over-paying, given the current playoff prospects of the team. With all that in mind, the Bobcats should...

TRADE THE #4 PICK TO MINNESOTA FOR DERRICK WILLIAMS AND PICKS #9 AND #26.

Minnesota is looking to get Victor Oladipo in this year's draft. However, it's important to note that while the Bobcats and Timberwolves could have the same opinion of him, his value his higher within Minnesota's team context. Playing alongside Rubio, Love, and probably Pekovic, Oladipo could be unleashed as a defensive stopper, transition monster, and part-time offensive creator. Charlotte would need him to bear more responsibility on offense, and that may not be his game. Assuming that this deal is really there to be had, the Bobcats could still go after an All-NBA talent at #9, while buying low on Williams. And, with the  #9 pick, the Bobcats should...

DRAFT MICHAEL CARTER-WILLIAMS. 

As far as potential All-NBA talents, I think he's the best prospect in the class. If the NBA Finals proved anything, it's that consistent play-making threats may be as scarce as consistent three point shooting. MCW can play both guard spots, provide NBA caliber passing from day one, substantially improve the offensive numbers of less skilled teammates in the half-court (Biyombo, MKG), and ignite a far more potent transition attack.

As for playing with Kemba Walker, it could be a very complementary match. MCW played off Brandon Triche at Syracuse, and the tandem alternated bringing the ball up, initiating the offense, and looking to score vs create. Walker is the kind of guard whose scoring instincts could mesh extremely well with Carter-Williams as a co-point guard.

Other Upside picks with All-NBA potential (in order, if available): Shabazz Muhammad, Steven Adams, Anthony Bennett

If those guys are unavailable, then there are still players that could be above-average starters and address an area of need for the Bobcats. Of that group, I'd lean towards Caldwell-Pope, who sports a complete offensive arsenal (including much-needed outside shooting), a good motor, and can contribute across the box score and on defense.

Fit Picks for the Bobcats: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cody Zeller, Ben McLemore, Alex Len

If the proposed trade went through, the #26 pick would also belong to the Bobcats. There a few ways to go in that scenario. Given the Bobcats situation, I would look more for team-oriented players, that have the ability to plug into a specific role quickly. Two seem like good bets, depending if the Bobcats go big or small with their lottery pick:

If they go big: SOLOMON HILL. The Kawhi Leonard comparisons feel lazy given Leonard's NBA Finals performance, but before his transcendant 2013 playoffs, Kawhi and Hill offered somewhat similar profiles. Hill brings 3 point shooting, great energy with regard to defense and rebounding, and a good understanding of fitting into a role within a team context. I like his potential as a glue guy small forward, and likely wouldn't take away from the offensive or defensive side of the floor. How often can that be said about a guy near the end of the 1st round?

If they go small: MIKE MUSCALA. He's a player with defined NBA attributes (NBA size and skills at the 4 or 5), who looks like a rotational player at minimum, and a very versatile big at best (stretch 4 shooting with the low post game to punish switches in the pick and roll, competent and developed in all other facets of the game). He would be a nice complement to Biyombo on both ends of the floor, particularly on offense.

Other picks (in order, if available): Ricky Ledo, Jackie Carmichael, C.J. Leslie, Lucas Noguiera

Assuming these moves were made, the Bobcats roster could look like:

Point Guard: Kemba Walker, Ramon Sessions
Shooting Guard: Michael Carter-Williams, Gerald Henderson, Jeff Taylor
Small Forward: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Solomon Hill
Bigs: Bismack Biyombo, Derrick Williams, Byron Mullens, Josh McRoberts, Brendan Haywood

That's a crunch time lineup with two play-makers, explosive athleticism at every position, poor floor spacing, and youthful inexperience. It's debatable whether anyone on this theoretical team would have All-NBA potential (I'd say MCW does), but it has significantly more potential than last year's roster. Someday the Bobcats have to turn potential into playoff wins, but that's not today... it's 2015.

Doc Rivers Is Smart to Jump Ship

Over the last few days, rumors have swirled that the Clippers are working to complete a trade that would bring over Kevin Garnett from the Celtics. As a consequence of that deal, the Celtics would be willing to let Doc Rivers out of his current contract, and let him leave to coach the Clippers. There are a few reasons why Doc is probably making a good move for himself:

REASON 1. RIVERS' PERCEPTION EXCEEDS HIS PRODUCTION.

Looking at the regular season winning percentage of last year's active NBA coaches, a few things can be observed. First, the most common thread linking coaches with .600 career winning percentages (52+ wins per season) appears to be the presence of a consensus All-NBA talent on the roster. Be it Popovich (Duncan / Parker), Thibodeau (Rose), Spoelstra (James / Wade), or Brooks (Durant / Westbrook), it's hard to win big consistently without big talent in its prime. Rivers (.554 win pct) is not immune to this phenomenon. With the current Celtics roster, it's arguable that Rivers won't have a single All-NBA player on his roster next year.

The obvious counter-argument is that, of all the highlighted coaches, only four have rings, and Rivers is one of them. Doesn't that count for something?

REASON 2. RIVERS' RECORD IS LARGELY MEDIOCRE WITHOUT THE BIG 3.

For GM's making a coaching hire, the most impressive coaches seem to be the ones that create success in a variety of situations. Coaches like George Karl and Rick Adelman have led teams to play .600 ball in a variety of circumstances. Rivers does not boast the same resume. Pick from the following hypothetical coaches to run a team:

• 876 regular season games, .506 winning pct, 5 playoff berths (with 2 teams), conference semis (2x)
• 614 regular season games, .454 winning pct, 4 playoff berths (1 team), conference semis (3x)
• 585 regular season games, .467 winning pct, 4 playoff berths (2 teams), 1st round exit (4x)

Both Scott Skiles and Lawrence Frank appear to have better results than Doc Rivers' pre-Big 3 resume, and both those coaches are viewed with far less reverence than Rivers as a potential hire. And for those that assume all title-winning coaches have a similar drop off, take a look at Rick Carlisle's record before arriving in Dallas:

• 492 regular season games, .571 winning pct, 5 playoff berths (2 teams), conference finals (2x) 

Based on his coaching record, Carlisle has demonstrated the ability to succeed in three different situations. Doc Rivers had never won a playoff series as a coach before the arrival of Garnett and Ray Allen in Boston.

REASON 3. NBA COACHES HAVE AN INCREASINGLY SHORT SHELF LIFE.

Making the playoffs as an NBA coach does nothing to insure job security from one year to the next. The Nuggets, Clippers, Hawks, Nets, and Grizzlies are all looking for new coaches after making the playoffs, and it can be argued that only two of those teams failed to meet expectations. This goes beyond "what have you done or me lately?," and into some previously unknown criteria for doing a job well enough to keep it.

Not only that, but several recent coaching hires (here and here and here) indicate that teams are certainly entertaining lower levels of experience when evaluating hires relative to the usual re-tread choices. It's more than likely that Rivers' luster as a coach would fade as the Celtics descend into a rebuild / re-load phase, and his appeal as a hire could be at its peak for the foreseeable future.

CONCLUSION

For the record, there's nothing wrong with Doc Rivers wanting to leave Boston for a better professional opportunity. Same for KG. Professional sports are unlike most other careers, in that opportunities for success can be rare and fleeting. However, if there are bones to pick, here they are. 

• Kevin Garnett planned to retire a Celtic four months ago. He was a little upset when Ray Allen decided to bail on the Celtics and chase a title somewhere else. The only way for KG to leave the Celtics in the next two seasons is if he chooses to, but he's apparently leaving the Celtics, and his teammates, to chase a title somewhere else.
• Doc Rivers wondered aloud why he would ever leave when he signed his five year contract two years ago. He's likely the highest paid coach in the NBA. He's won a title with this organization, and his front office has repeatedly demonstrated a willingness to work with him. Aside from the current roster, what justifies leaving Boston other than chasing the nearest potential championship?  

Both these guys are still under contract with the Celtics, and for whatever their reasons, they're leaving that organization for the prospect of getting a ring with a "better" organization. I'm probably missing something, but this whole thing seems like it's one ten minute interview away from something we've all seen, and collectively derided, before.

Heat-Pacers Summary

As the 2013 playoff series unfold, the old box score stats may not tell the whole story. These summaries will look at each series from the perspective of plus/minus. With an adjustment for minutes played, Oden's Knee will identify the players that stood out in each series, for good and bad reasons alike.

My Prediction Was: Heat in 5.

Best Plus Minus: Lebron James (+28 in 303 minutes). What is there to say? The most impressive thing about James in this series had to be the variety of defensive assignments. There aren't many players walking the planet that can credibly match up with Paul George and David West on consecutive possessions, but that's the kind of thing he's capable of doing. Against the Spurs, I'm guessing Parker will get to see this defensive versatility first-hand, a la Derrick Rose in the 2011 playoffs. 

Worst Plus Minus: D.J. Augustin (-62 in 98 minutes). The second unit of the Pacers had very little success against the Heat, and Augustin was not set up for success against the larger, long-armed, athletic point guard tandem of Miami (Chalmers and Cole). In his defense, the units without West, Hibbert, or George had very little chance of generating easy offense, while missing the core of the team's defensive identity inside.

Most Valuable Player: Lance Stephenson (Net +40 in 264 minutes). For two of the three playoff series this year, the Pacers' best player in my net plus/minus has been Lance Stephenson. It always sounded a little strange when All-Star caliber guys like Hibbert and George talked about how important it was to get Lance going, but they clearly know this team way better than everyone else. There's an almost Westbrook-like flair to his reckless pushes in transition, and his fearless instigation of virtually every opposing player within earshot. He's not the same talent as Westbrook, but he clearly serves the same role as the edge / X-factor for his team. Hopefully, OKC's struggles this spring have driven home the point that, for better or worse, some players are more than the sum of their raw box score numbers.

Least Valuable Player: Dwyane Wade (Net -21 in 264 minutes). Wade's likely physical struggles have been well documented, and apparently with good reason. It'll be interesting to see him matched up against Ginobli, a player with a similar perceptible decline in production relative to reputation. 

Jerome James Award: None.

Spurs-Grizzlies Summary

As the 2013 playoff series unfold, the old box score stats may not tell the whole story. These summaries will look at each series from the perspective of plus/minus. With an adjustment for minutes played, Oden's Knee will identify the players that stood out in each series, for good and bad reasons alike.

My Prediction Was: Grizzlies in 6.

Best Overall Plus Minus: Tim Duncan (+46 in 137 minutes). I was more than a little concerned about how Duncan would fare in this series, given how it went last time. Look at these two lines:

Which one is the one where he was outmatched and too old against the 2011 Grizzlies, and which one is the one where he still had championship fuel in the tank? I know because I looked them up. I remain somewhat shocked by what transpired in this series, even days later. What I do know is, a few weeks ago, Duncan was benched during the closing minutes of Game 6 against the Warriors, and today, he's the linchpin of the Spurs' run for a fifth title.

Worst Overall Plus Minus: Zach Randolph (-54 in 154 minutes). Is Randolph's performance a reflection on the ability of the Spurs to exploit flaws in offensive schemes? Our collective overestimation of the Thunder's interior defenders relative to San Antonio's? An indictment of Memphis' spacing issues due to a lack of competent wing shooters? I'd lean toward option C, based on...

Most Valuable Player: Quincy Pondexter (Net +33 in 128 minutes). Consider: In the 119 minutes Tayshaun Prince was off the court, the Grizzlies were outscored by seven points. In the 74 minutes Pondexter was off the court, the Grizzlies were outscored by 33 points. This either means that outside shooting mattered in this series (Jerryd Bayless also posted an impressive net plus/minus), or the 2nd unit for Memphis played better than the starters in much more limited minutes. Looking at Pondexter's postseason shooting from deep relative to his prior seasons, it's hard to say if this was a sign of things to come for him, or a Trevor Ariza-like abberation. Given the Grizzlies' cap situation, I bet management rolls the dice that it's the latter. (For grumbling Memphis fans, know that O.J. Mayo and Rudy Gay never brought that kind of shooting to the playoffs).

Least Valuable Player: Tiago Splitter (Net -30 In 105 minutes). The narrative is that the two-headed inside duo of Duncan and Splitter laid waste to the Memphis ground and pound duo. But Splitter played barely half the minutes in this series, and did most of his plus/minus damage in the only blowout of the series, Game 1. The good news is, he could the most pivotal or least useful big on the roster depending on the Spurs' next opponent.

Reverse Jerome James Award: Patient Organizations. Looking at the Spurs-Grizzlies series from two years ago, the core of Duncan, Ginobli, and Parker seemed to have faded into the sunset for at least the 2nd time to that point. Instead of punting on that trio like everyone outside of San Antonio thought they should, they tinkered around the edges. They remained patient with Splitter. They paid a good price to get a good asset that fit better, And, in the two years since, they've been to the conference finals, winning this time.

Memphis has some tough choices to make, but doesn't their style of play merit a year or two of tweaking, instead of whispering about letting Randolph go? I say yes. Do they need to find better ways to space the floor for Gasol and Z-Bo? Of course. But there's something to be said for giving players and teams time to develop as a group. Every time in the conference finals owes some of their success to that kind of player development this season (Mike Conley, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Lebron James). Take a lesson from the Western Conference champs, Memphis, and don't over-correct here.

Pacers-Knicks Summary

As the 2013 playoff series unfold, the old box score stats may not tell the whole story. These summaries will look at each series from the perspective of plus/minus. With an adjustment for minutes played, Oden's Knee will identify the players that stood out in each series, for good and bad reasons alike.

My Prediction: Pacers in 6.

Best Plus Minus / Most Valuable Player: JR Smith (+32 in 191 minutes). Most o this number is built on the back of the Game 2 Knicks rout (+27 in that game, +5 in the rest of the series). When Smith is on, the Knicks have two scorers and three complementary players. When he's off, they have one. He was off. That doesn't change what he is: an X-factor. Every team still in the playoffs has some player with a stunning ratio of swagger to everyday production (Tony Allen, Manu Ginobli, Lance Stephenson, Mario Chalmers), but that guy can win you one game in a playoff series. That's J.R., for better or worse. I can't wait to see how GM's value that skill in free agency, because I don't have a clue.

Worst Plus Minus / Least Valuable Player: Raymond Felton (-28 in 208 minutes). Felton honestly didn't have a great series, and without his season-long pick-and-roll partner, he wasn't going to generate a ton of efficient against the long-armed Pacer defense. I wonder what happened to that partner of his...

Jerome James Award: Tyson Chandler. Major accolades can often have more to do with offense than defense in the NBA. That's no one's fault in particular, we have better metrics to look at offense. So, I was one of the people who applauded when Chandler got a third team All-NBA nod last year, since his variety of playing one side of the court well happened to be defense. Well, All-NBA players have to bear the brunt of criticism when your production declines. Take a look at the regular season and postseason numbers:

Regular Season Averages: 33 minutes, 10.4 pts (64% FG), 10.7 reb, 1.1 blocks

Postseason Averages: 29 minutes, 5.7 pts (54% FG), 7.3 reb, 1.2 blocks

Combine those numbers with Roy Hibbert's two-way field day during the series, and I'd say there should probably be a little more blame heading Chandler's way.

Spurs-Warriors Summary

As the 2013 playoff series unfold, the old box score stats may not tell the whole story. These summaries will look at each series from the perspective of plus/minus. With an adjustment for minutes played, Oden's Knee will identify the players that stood out in each series, for good and bad reasons alike.

My Prediction Was: Spurs in 5.

Best Plus Minus: Manu Ginobli (+50 in 178 minutes). Given his injury issues, and the seemingly obvious mismatch Tony Parker presented, it's surprising that Ginobli would be the Spur that gets this spot. Then again, given Ginobli's penchant for playing big in the playoffs, it's surprising that this is surprising. Not only did he provide timely shot-making (to agree, you have to ignore his 34% from the field, 27% from three, and 65% from the line), but he may have been the Spurs' best playmaker in the series (6.3 assists per game, 2.5 assist-turnover ratio). Given Parker's injuries, and the looming Conley matchup, Ginobli vs. Tony Allen may be the most pivotal matchup of the Western Conference finals.

Worst Plus Minus: Jarrett Jack (-40 in 198 minutes). With the success of Harrison Barnes and Jack in this series, it's almost like people forgot that Gregg Popovich designs defenses to make someone else beat you. As in, a "point guard" who will generate as many turnovers as assists over the course of a series (14 to 14). As in, a guard who will not punish opposing defenders with hot shooting from deep (27% shooting from three on less than two attempts per game), and keep guys like Curry and Thompson from impacting a game. You can keep applauding Jack's contributions in this series, but I bet every time Jack initiated offense from the top of the key, while Curry and Thompson watched from the corners, the Spurs' coaching staff smiled.

Most Valuable Player: Klay Thompson (Net +28 in 250 minutes). Ah, the other member of the "Splash Brothers" backcourt. As a basketball fan who appreciates those who affect two ends of a basketball court, I tip my hat to the guy who took a slightly smaller offensive burden (five fewer attempts, two fewer free throw attempts per game than Curry during the series), but also took the challenge of guarding Tony Parker, as opposed to being hidden by his coach on defense. Curry is the more unique basketball talent, but almost every team in the NBA could slot Thompson into their lineup and probably not lose efficiency on offense or defense. It might not seem like a compliment, but it's meant to be a compliment of the highest order.

Least Valuable Player: Danny Green (Net -53 in 214 minutes). I can honestly say I don't understand this result. I've seen a lot of quick stats about how poor Curry was shooting when defended by Green. Plus, his numbers were up across the board versus his regular season numbers, on a higher minutes count. I'm truly confused. Given the lack of a non-point guard scoring threat on the Grizzlies, it will be interesting to see what both his and Leonard's roles will be in the next series.

Jerome James Award: Tim Duncan. He's the greatest power forward of all time. He's carried teams on his back multiple times during multiple seasons. He's still playing a good three years after most of the basketball world thought he was done. But, cracks are starting to show. In crunch time, Golden State was purposely involving a 14-time All-Defense selection in screen and rolls. Why? On offense, the Warriors often left Duncan single covered in the post by Carl Landry. Why? We can argue about the reasons, but the facts are that in this series, San Antonio was +34 with Duncan on the bench, and -11 with Duncan in the game. If that doesn't scare you, just ask yourself: who is Tim Duncan going to match up with against Memphis - Gasol or Randolph? Would you feel good about either one, on either side of the floor?

Thunder-Grizzlies Summary

As the 2013 playoff series unfold, the old box score stats may not tell the whole story. These summaries will look at each series from the perspective of plus/minus. With an adjustment for minutes played, Oden's Knee will identify the players that stood out in each series, for good and bad reasons alike.

My prediction was: Thunder in 7.

Best Plus Minus: Marc Gasol (+35 in 209 minutes). I'd like to split this award with his teammate, Zach Randolph. If Curry and Thompson are the Splash Brothers, then someone needs to give these two a cool nickname (and Bash Brothers doesn't seem right, so don't even bother). It's not the style of basketball that grabs casual fans, but for some people (read: me), intelligent defense played hard is fun to watch. And the best part? They won't go small in crunch time; they make opponents play their way. It should be fun watching them match up with the Spurs or Warriors.

Worst Plus Minus: Reggie Jackson (-33 in 188 minutes). It feels like people don't remember that Eric Maynor used to give OKC great minutes at backup point guard before he tore his ACL. Given his unanticipated jump in responsibility, I suppose he gets a pass. But, in five games, he made six shots outside the paint, and yielded a 2:1 assist-turnover ratio, and generated less than three free throw attempts per game.  If the goal is to be a poor man's Westbrook, he's got a little work to do.

Most Valuable Player: Derek Fisher (Net +32 in 135 minutes). Derek Fisher has already received more attention on this blog than I'd like. So I'm moving on.

Least Valuable Player: Tayshaun Prince (Net -27 in 157 minutes). For most of the crunch time minutes I saw, Prince seemed to gum up the works on offense as often as he helped facilitate. Also, Tony Allen appeared to take a page out of the 2006 Dirk Nowitzki scouting report ("put a mean shorter defender on him, he won't take him down low) with great success against Durant. I'd personally like to see Pondexter get a little more run in this spot, and maybe the next opponent's lack of a 6-10 small forward with 30 foot shooting range will let that happen.

Jerome James Award: Whining About Injuries. I'm a little sick of listening to Thunder fans complain about their bad luck with injuries. The fact that injuries play a major role in the playoffs is not new, it's just new to Thunder fans. As a public service, allow me to catch OKC fans up on what's been happening in the NBA the last few years: 

• in 2013, the Knicks don't beat the Celtics if Rajon Rondo doesn't tear his ACL. The Warriors don't beat the Nuggets if Gallinari doesn't tear his ACL, unless David Lee doesn't tear his hip flexor.
• in 2012, the Heat don't need seven games to beat the Celtics if Chris Bosh doesn't miss the first few games of that series. The Celtics don't even get to the conference finals if a healthy Derrick Rose leads the Bulls past the Sixers in the 1st round.
• in 2011, the Thunder doesn't beat Memphis in seven games if Rudy Gay doesn't miss the entire playoffs that year. The Grizzlies don't beat the Spurs in Round 1 if Manu Ginobli isn't battling an elbow injury during that series.
• in 2010, the Lakers don't beat the Celtics if Kendrick Perkins doesn't tear his ACL in Game 6 of the NBA Finals.
• in 2009, the Magic don't beat the Celtics if Kevin Garnett doesn't injure his knee at the end of the regular season.

Sometimes bad things happen in sports, and there isn't a clear reason why. Sometimes it means teams and players don't get to achieve what they could have. For crying out loud, the name of this blog is an homage to that very fact. So, feel sorry for yourselves if you want, it's your right. But please don't expect the rest of the sports world to feel your pain; it's been par for the course for everyone else for a while now.

Bulls-Nets Summary

As the 2013 playoff series unfold, the old box score stats may not tell the whole story. These summaries will look at each series from the perspective of plus/minus. With an adjustment for minutes played, Oden's Knee will identify the players that stood out in each series, for good and bad reasons alike.

Best Plus Minus: Brook Lopez (+21 in 263 minutes). He definitely has a few flaws (not the best rebounder given his size, difficulty in pick-and-roll defense), but his pluses far outweigh his minuses. Whatever the Nets want to do next year, he's a great building block.

Worst Plus Minus: Jimmy Butler (-39 in 269 minutes). When it comes to the draft, the conventional wisdom seems to suggest that getting a rotation player after pick #20 is generally considered a good-to-great pick, depending on where the pick is. Does Jimmy have the potential to be a starter, who can take the defensive challenge of the other team's best player, and bring adequate offensive production in an iron man's minutes? Yes. So, job well done, Chicago front office, no matter what plus-minus says.

Most Valuable Player: Nate Robinson (Net +33 in 210 minutes). There's no good explanation for this. A coach as demanding as Thibodeau, an offense and defense that requires the discipline of Chicago's... this shouldn't be the role that Nate shines in. And yet, without Derrick Rose, bad shots will be taken no matter what they try to run at least 20 times a game. Why not let somebody with no fear take (and make) those shots?

Least Valuable Player: Jimmy Butler (Net -25 in 269 minutes). See above.

Jerome James Award: Joe Johnson / Deron Williams. There's just too much talent (and contract value) to look anywhere else in this series. These are two multiple time All-Stars, with All-NBA spots on their resumes and enough experience to get paid what most people think of as max contract dollars. They were playing an inferior team talent-wise, whose injuries only made the disparity worse as the series wore on. That means they get the credit and the blame, whichever is coming the way of the Brooklyn Nets. I'd give 80% of the grief to Williams given Johnson gutting out a pretty tough injury, but it's hard not to be frustrated with the Nets' season given the roster's composition.

Knicks-Celtics Summary

As the 2013 playoff series unfold, the old box score stats may not tell the whole story. These summaries will look at each series from the perspective of plus/minus. With an adjustment for minutes played, Oden's Knee will identify the players that stood out in each series, for good and bad reasons alike.

Best Plus Minus: Raymond Felton (+51 in 247 minutes). In the 2010 playoffs, Felton was the starting point guard of the Bobcats, and got swept out of the playoffs. He shouldered a lot of blame for Jameer Nelson exploiting pick and roll defense for big stats in that series. Since then, he signed with the Knicks, got traded to the Nuggets, got traded to the Blazers, possibly led a player mutiny, and then got traded back to the Knicks. None of that matters now, because he made Bill Simmons quit on Avery Bradley. Thank you, Raymond.

Worst Plus Minus: Jeff Green (-47 in 259 minutes). It's awesome to see Jeff Green playing and playing well. About 18 months ago, he was having heart surgery. He just finished a series for Boston that, from a production standpoint, exceeded his pre-surgery OKC days. Can he guard the burly small forwards of the East, like Carmelo and Lebron? Probably not. Can anyone? Probably not. But he's definitely an above-average starting small forward, with potential as a floor-spacing crunch time 4. Which means he's a decent piece for the Celtics going forward.

Most Valuable Player: Kevin Garnett (Net +30 in 212 minutes). I'm not the biggest Kevin Garnett fan in the world. I can't separate his play on the court with all the other stuff (if you don't believe me, type "Kevin Garnett Cheap Shot" into Youtube sometime). But, he played well in this series, so he gets his due. Nice work against the Knicks. Due completed, moving on.

Least Valuable Player: Jason Kidd (Net -63 in 158 minutes). Jason Kidd can bring shooting, smart ball movement, and generally good play-making regardless of time and score to an offense. On defense, though, his lateral quickness has understandably declined with age, and aside from smart positioning and good strength, he can be overmatched against younger, athletic guards. I'm not sure that the next round will bring him much relief in that department.

Jerome James Award: Team Reputation. When the Knicks went up 3-0 on the Celtics, this series was over, based on the history of the league. When the Celtics won two in a row, the series was still over based on that history. But based on the media's reaction to Game 5, the Knicks were exhibiting tell-tale signs of a lack of championship mettle. If only they could be like the time-tested Celtics, the pinnacle of playoff toughness, who don't give teams a chance to get back up once they're down.

If only they could be like the Celtics, who went up 3-2 on Miami in 2012 and lost. Or the Celtics who went up 3-2 on the Lakers in 2010 and lost. Or the Celtics who went up 3-0 on the Magic in 2010, and lost two in a row before winning game 6 to close it out (sound familiar?). Or the 2009 Celtics who went up 3-2 on the Magic and lost (including Game 7 at home). 

The truth is, we won't know what the 2013 Knicks are until the playoffs end. Sometimes, even when a team is going to eventually win it all, each round can be so excruciating, supposedly devoted fans can write something like this about their own team. So let's just wait until the Knicks are eliminated before we say they can't do anything like win it all. Because we said the same things about the 2009 Lakers, and the 2012 Heat, and we were completely wrong.

Thunder-Rockets Summary

As the 2013 playoff series unfold, the old box score stats may not tell the whole story. These summaries will look at each series from the perspective of plus/minus. With an adjustment for minutes played, Oden's Knee will identify the players that stood out in each series, for good and bad reasons alike.

Best Plus Minus / MVP: Omer Asik (+17 / Net +52 in 209 minutes). Even high tempo offenses that value spacing and shooting need competent defensive centers to compete. That's what makes Andrew Bogut so valuable in Golden State, and it's why the numbers say Omer Asik was the best player in this series. His value as a defensive player is without question. But despite shooting a jump shot about once every three games, he's a critical part of the spacing of the Houston offense. By setting great ball screens and rolling hard to the hoop, he forces defenses to account for him or give up an attempt at the rim (he finishes 59% of those). Of the two "poison pill" offer sheets Houston used last summer, this one was the far better move in hindsight.

Worst Plus Minus: Jeremy Lin (-64 in 83 minutes). Oh yeah, the other poison pill offer sheet. I'm not going to opine on Jeremy Lin's future based on a series where he got hurt in Game 2. I will say this: Patrick Beverley produced more than he did in this series, and that creates just enough uncertainty to make next season uncomfortable if Linsanity starts slow next year.

Least Valuable Player: Thabo Sefalosha (Net -53 in 192 minutes). Thabo has a very specific job in series like this: stop guys like James Harden. Unfortunately, he's also been practicing against that guy every day for most of the last four years. If the Harden - Ibaka isolations told us anything, I think Harden's prior experience playing against Thunder players made good defenders look worse than they normally look.

Jerome James Award: Derek Fisher. Once Russell Westbrook went down in this series, Reggie Jackson and Derek Fisher were thrust into much larger roles. Thankfully, Derek Fisher was in position to help because he signed with the Mavericks, quit to spend time with his family, then changed his mind and signed with the #1 seed in the Western conference. There's no denying that from Derek's side, this makes a lot of sense. And there's no denying that from the side of a jilted team, it's quitting. So, as the Thunder continue their playoff struggle, please spare me the platitudes about Fish's leadership qualities. He's basically Ray Allen, for better or worse.

Pacers-Hawks Summary

As the 2013 playoff series unfold, the old box score stats may not tell the whole story. These summaries will look at each series from the perspective of plus/minus. With an adjustment for minutes played, Oden's Knee will identify the players that stood out in each series, for good and bad reasons alike.

Best Plus Minus / Most Valuable Player: Lance Stephenson (+58 / Net +27 in 200 minutes).

Worst Plus Minus: Jeff Teague (-49 in 212 minutes).

Least Valuable Player: D.J. Augustin (Net -48 in 101 minutes). 

This series was largely banished to NBA TV for a reason. I didn't watch a lot of this series, you didn't watch a lot of this series, but the numbers are here if you have some reason to look at them. My advice? Just read something else.

Warriors-Nuggets Summary

As the 2013 playoff series unfold, the old box score stats may not tell the whole story. These summaries will look at each series from the perspective of plus/minus. With an adjustment for minutes played, Oden's Knee will identify the players that stood out in each series, for good and bad reasons alike.

Best Plus Minus / Most Valuable Player: Steph Curry (+52 and Net +22.5 in 240 minutes). For every person who said Steph Curry would be a good pro, who defended him against those (read: me) who said he'd be a tweener offensive player who couldn't guard any position... take a bow. This series is one you can hold up anytime someone tries to question your brilliance. The Nuggets certainly play into Curry's ideal style, and the lack of Gallinari probably prevented Denver from playing several of its most-used and most productive lineups. But the Warriors were missing Lee for the whole series, so it's all a wash. Curry is a cyborg Reggie Miller with a handle, plus the shot-making creativity of Pistol Pete. There's no such thing as hyperbole until Game 1 against the Spurs.

Worst Plus Minus / Least Valuable Player: Ty Lawson (-53 and Net -28 in 237 minutes). This looks like a classic plus/minus head-fake, right? Of all the players I watched for Denver in this series, the two that seemed the most indispensable to my eye were Lawson and Iguodala/Faried, depending on the game. How, then, did this happen? Look at the per-game comparison of Lawson and Curry over the series:

Curry: 40 minutes, 24.3 points, 47% fg, 44% 3fg, 4.3 rebounds, 9.3 assists, 3.3 turnovers, 2.2 steals
Lawson: 39.5 minutes 21.3 points, 44% fg, 19% 3fg, 3.3 rebounds, 8.0 assists, 2.2 turnovers, 1.7 steals

This is a legitimate question that I can't answer. They were clearly on the floor at the same time, their individual stats are slightly in favor of Steph, and yet plus/minus sees them completely differently. Honestly, how is this possible?

Reverse Jerome James Award: Unconventional teams. At almost every turn, I've pointed out how the only teams that win NBA championships feature at least one All-NBA player (1st or 2nd team), and that competing without one just doesn't seem smart. I have also been rooting for the Nuggets to break that rule. Why? First of all, the style of play they always create (high-pace, aggressive/reckless plays, with a focus on getting to the rim) is easily the most enjoyable form of the game to any casual fan.

Second, and more important, it was far easier strategy to duplicate than the accepted model (acquiring one of the ten best players on the planet). It was a strategy that any GM could follow. Look at the Denver roster: not a single player drafted in the top 5 of any draft (as in, every team could likely build a roster like this if they wanted to). Their devotion to their style of play and roster construction didn't jive with the rest of the basketball world, and the skepticism of their postseason prospects feels similar to what the Steve Nash Suns faced (the anti- "defense wins championships" team). But, in the NBA, there's one ingredient you can't avoid if you want to win it all, and despite Denver's best efforts, that adage is true for yet another season. And the NBA is just a little less interesting than it could be as a result.