Sunday, May 19, 2013

Spurs-Warriors Summary

As the 2013 playoff series unfold, the old box score stats may not tell the whole story. These summaries will look at each series from the perspective of plus/minus. With an adjustment for minutes played, Oden's Knee will identify the players that stood out in each series, for good and bad reasons alike.



My Prediction Was: Spurs in 5.

Best Plus Minus: Manu Ginobli (+50 in 178 minutes). Given his injury issues, and the seemingly obvious mismatch Tony Parker presented, it's surprising that Ginobli would be the Spur that gets this spot. Then again, given Ginobli's penchant for playing big in the playoffs, it's surprising that this is surprising. Not only did he provide timely shot-making (to agree, you have to ignore his 34% from the field, 27% from three, and 65% from the line), but he may have been the Spurs' best playmaker in the series (6.3 assists per game, 2.5 assist-turnover ratio). Given Parker's injuries, and the looming Conley matchup, Ginobli vs. Tony Allen may be the most pivotal matchup of the Western Conference finals.

Worst Plus Minus: Jarrett Jack (-40 in 198 minutes). With the success of Harrison Barnes and Jack in this series, it's almost like people forgot that Gregg Popovich designs defenses to make someone else beat you. As in, a "point guard" who will generate as many turnovers as assists over the course of a series (14 to 14). As in, a guard who will not punish opposing defenders with hot shooting from deep (27% shooting from three on less than two attempts per game), and keep guys like Curry and Thompson from impacting a game. You can keep applauding Jack's contributions in this series, but I bet every time Jack initiated offense from the top of the key, while Curry and Thompson watched from the corners, the Spurs' coaching staff smiled.

Most Valuable Player: Klay Thompson (Net +28 in 250 minutes). Ah, the other member of the "Splash Brothers" backcourt. As a basketball fan who appreciates those who affect two ends of a basketball court, I tip my hat to the guy who took a slightly smaller offensive burden (five fewer attempts, two fewer free throw attempts per game than Curry during the series), but also took the challenge of guarding Tony Parker, as opposed to being hidden by his coach on defense. Curry is the more unique basketball talent, but almost every team in the NBA could slot Thompson into their lineup and probably not lose efficiency on offense or defense. It might not seem like a compliment, but it's meant to be a compliment of the highest order.

Least Valuable Player: Danny Green (Net -53 in 214 minutes). I can honestly say I don't understand this result. I've seen a lot of quick stats about how poor Curry was shooting when defended by Green. Plus, his numbers were up across the board versus his regular season numbers, on a higher minutes count. I'm truly confused. Given the lack of a non-point guard scoring threat on the Grizzlies, it will be interesting to see what both his and Leonard's roles will be in the next series.

Jerome James Award: Tim Duncan. He's the greatest power forward of all time. He's carried teams on his back multiple times during multiple seasons. He's still playing a good three years after most of the basketball world thought he was done. But, cracks are starting to show. In crunch time, Golden State was purposely involving a 14-time All-Defense selection in screen and rolls. Why? On offense, the Warriors often left Duncan single covered in the post by Carl Landry. Why? We can argue about the reasons, but the facts are that in this series, San Antonio was +34 with Duncan on the bench, and -11 with Duncan in the game. If that doesn't scare you, just ask yourself: who is Tim Duncan going to match up with against Memphis - Gasol or Randolph? Would you feel good about either one, on either side of the floor?

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