Bobcats Quarterly Update: Bismack Biyombo

 As everyone in the Bobcats organization has either implied or just said out loud, this year is less about wins and losses and more about development. 20 40 or so games in, there are some interesting things that you can already see (via stats from Hoopdata).

BIYOMBO HAS NOT IMPROVED AS A SCORER

• Despite a slight uptick in minutes per game (23.1 to 25), Biyombo's overall field goal attempts have decreased this season, and remains below the average power forward playing 20+ minutes (9.4 attempts per game).
• While free throw attempts are down a little, his percentage (53.9%) is up from last year.
• Attempts at the rim have increased, but his field goal percentage has dropped to 55%. The league average is 67%.
• Attempts from 10-15 feet have dropped significantly, and he may not have made one this season (effectively 0%), versus a league average of 41% from that range.
• Attempts from 16-23 feet have also dropped, and his field goal percentage has also dropped dramatically (to 11%), versus a league average of 39%.

BIYOMBO'S DEFENSE HAS IMPROVED MARGINALLY

• Offensive rebound rate has improved to 10.1, better than the league average for power forwards playing 20+ minutes (9.0).
• Defensive rebound rate has decreased slightly, but remains above the league average (19.8).
• Total rebound rate has improved to 15.2, versus the group's league average of 14.4.
• Blocks per game remain well above the league average (0.86), although they have decreased despite the increase in minutes.

CONCLUSION

The stats back up what most people have seen with their eyes: Biyombo is still generally a minus player on offense, and an above average player on defense. As valuable as a defensive force could be, a player with little to contribute on one end of the floor can sometimes hurt a team as much as he helps. Thankfully, at this point, that doesn't seem to be the case: per NBA.com's plus/minus numbers, most of the Bobcats' most productive lineups seem to involve Biyombo.

Hopefully, as the season of development continues, Biyombo's offensive education remains a priority. From Year 1 to Year 2, Biyombo's offensive opportunities have both decreased and become less efficient. While Dunlap's emphasis on "kill spots" in the offense likely has a lot to do with this, it's important to see whether Biyombo's offensive game can (or should) branch out to more spots on the floor.

Could the '11-'12 Wildcats Beat the '11-'12 Bobcats?

During the 2011-2012 basketball season, the success of the national champion Kentucky Wildcats and the historic futility of the Charlotte Bobcats prompted a common question: since Kentucky's team was potentially stocked with NBA talent, could it beat an NBA team in a game?

There were a variety of responses to the question. Some were pretty aggressive, some spoke theoretically about a one-game scenario, while others shaded in that direction. Of course,Charles Barkley also sided with UK,  but then again, this is the same guy who said Yao Ming wouldn't score 19 in his rookie year (with hilarious consequences).

The fun in the question is that there is no credible way to answer the question, because who knows what Kentucky players would do against professional competition? Well, now that those Kentucky kids are almost halfway through their first season against NBA competition, how are they doing?

Marquis Teague. Despite losing Derrick Rose and CJ Watson from last year's squad, Teague has been unable to unseat journeyman veterans like Nate Robinson and Kirk Hinrich at the PG spot. He's playing 7.0 minutes per game, shooting 36.7% from the floor (despite taking virtually no threes), 62.5% from the FT line, and sports a PER of 5.83 (remember, the average NBA player scores a 15). Current NBA Status: FRINGE ROTATION PLAYER.

Doron Lamb. Lamb has averaged 12 minutes per game for the Bucks, shooting 34.7% from the floor (including 25% from three despite his reputed shooting prowess), netting a PER of 3.27 (that's worse than Cory Higgins last year: 4.17 ). Also, Lamb has been sent to the D-League. Current NBA Status: OUT OF THE LEAGUE.

Darius Miller. Miller has averaged 14 minutes per game for the Hornets, mixing decent 3 point shooting (33%) with a propensity to foul (1.9 per game), limiting his effectiveness as a "3 and D" rotational player (6.04 PER). Miller was also recently been assigned to the D-League by a rebuilding team. Current NBA Status: OUT OF THE LEAGUE.

Terrence Jones. Jones has averaged 8.3 minutes per game, contributing some poor shooting (38.2% overall, 25% from three) with nice production across the stat sheet (rebounds, assists, blocks, steals) given his limited minutes. He has also, unfortunately, been sent to the D-League. Current NBA Status: OUT OF THE LEAGUE.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Despite a strong start to the season, MKG has settled into more pedestrian production: 10.2 points on 47.9% shooting, 6.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.1 blocks, 0.7 steals, along with a few turnovers and fouls in 27 minutes per game. The result? A PER of 15.8, and very few fourth quarter minutes for the #2 pick, who plays for arguably the worst team in the NBA. Current NBA Status: STARTER.

Anthony Davis. The preseason NBA Rookie of the Year has had the most impact of this Kentucky class, producing 13.2 points, 8 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks in 29.3 minutes per game (PER of 20.84). He's also seen his minutes per game decrease in every month, most notably averaging only 23 minutes per game during the team's recent 6-1 stretch (nearly half the team's total wins this season). Current NBA Status: STARTER.

At this point, there are only two players from that team that are contributing average production to an NBA team, while the rest are largely off the NBA radar. This in no way says anything about their eventual pro potential; I happen to think at least three will be productive professional players (though not stars). But, there is a difference between playing college basketball and playing in the NBA, no matter what the perception of that may be. That difference means that a college team, no matter how accomplished and talented, doesn't have much hope against a team of NBA players.

Will any of this change the mind of casual basketball fans if another "college super-team" emerges in the next decade? Absolutely not. It's the same reason people casually say that Alabama's football team could beat the Jacksonville Jaguars. It doesn't have to be remotely accurate, it's just fun to talk about, and there's nothing wrong with that. Still, someone should tell Larry Brown that the Hornets have to finish on a 37-5 streak in order to justify his pre-draft hype.

The 2013 NBA Draft: Talent is Not An Issue

It's January, and in the world of the NBA Draft, scouts and front offices are starting to hone in on all the potential prospects set to enter the league at the end of June. Coincidentally, it's also the time when people seem to start universally panning the talent of the draft class. Here's Chad Ford, ESPN draft guru, doing it (around 1:49 PM mark). While we're at it, here's a few other scouts doing it. The refrains vary from "there aren't a lot of can't miss guys" to "there's nobody in this draft to build around." This isn't the first time this sentiment has spread about a draft class, and like every prior year, the overwhelming odds are that it will proven wrong over time... again.

Based on twenty years of NBA Draft classes (1990-2009, chart below), there are a number of interesting observations to make:

1) Every NBA Draft included at least one player that would make an All-NBA team during their career. There are 15 All-NBA players each year, meaning those players are arguably the top 4% of all players in the league.

2) 19 out of 20 NBA Drafts included at least three players that would make an All-Star team during their career (the exception being the very young 2009 draft). There are 24 All-Star players each year, meaning those players are arguably the top 7% of all players in the league.

3) Over this time frame, the average draft has produced three All-NBA players and five All-Star players.

Based on the performance of players in actual NBA drafts, it seems nearly impossible to argue that a given draft seems lacking in "franchise changing" talent, whatever that phrase may mean. NBA draftees have never been finished products, and while people can pretend that things like the one-and-done rule and AAU ball have diminished the talent coming in, the facts don't back it up. Even the 2008 and 2009 draft classes have yet to reach their respective full potential. If you don't believe that, then you would have to believe that James Harden, Ricky Rubio, Steph Curry, Jrue Holiday, Eric Gordon, Brook Lopez, Serge Ibaka, and Nicolas Batum will never make an All-Star or All-NBA team in their careers. (Seems like a bad bet.)

So, as everyone starts to focus on the talent available this June, remember: odds are at least one of these guys will change a franchise, probably more than one. To the guys that do this for a living, the question isn't if that guy is out there; the question is whether you can pick him out of the crowd.

Year	Draftees Making an All-NBA Team	Draftees Making an All-Star Team
1990	2	6
1991	2	7
1992	3	5
1993	4	7
1994	4	5
1995	2	6
1996	7	10
1997	3	3
1998	3	5
1999	5	9
2000	1	3
2001	6	7
2002	3	4
2003	4	8
2004	1	5
2005	4	5
2006	3	3
2007	2	3
2008	3	4
2009	1	1