College Basketball: What does the AP Poll Tell Us?

College basketball offers fans a less predictable postseason and champion than most other major sports. There are likely several reasons for this (single elimination tournament, 6 rounds of tournament play, wide variance in roster experience). However, for the people that follow the sport regularly, a natural question arises: does anyone know anything about who's going to win? And, does the regular season tell us anything?

In order to answer the questions, the AP poll is probably the best source of information. Since it offers rankings at the preseason, mid-season (before conference play), and end of season (pre-tournament), what does it say about our collective knowledge of college basketball over the last ten seasons?

PRESEASON SUCCESS: 73%
MIDSEASON SUCCESS: 71%
PRETOURNEY SUCCESS: 81%

Over the last ten years, the AP top 20 basically yielded six of the Elite Eight teams before a game was played. Through midseason (basically, right before conference play starts), that number did not improve; in fact, it was slightly worse. Bottom line: at this level, conventional wisdom seems neither good nor bad.

PRESEASON SUCCESS: 55%
MIDSEASON SUCCESS: 53%
PRETOURNEY SUCCESS: 68%

This looks like the most varied level of success for the poll. The preseason success was higher than the midseason success, and the pretourney number was the highest of them all. But it's so inconsistent: in two years (2011 and 2006), no preseason top 10 team made the Final Four. In the same years, only one top 10 team from the last poll made the Final Four. Apparently, the difference between winning three tourney games and winning four is real.

For picking the national champion, the AP poll has some interesting results. In the preseason poll, three out of the last ten champions were unranked: 2011 (UConn), 2006 (Florida), and 2003 (Syracuse). In fact, all three remained outside the top ten (#21, #11, #11, respectively) going into the tourney.

The most interesting part of this is the national champions from the top 5 in the poll. Given the variability seen in the Elite Eight and Final Four participants, it's comparatively impressive to see that six champions came out of the top 5 in preseason, and eight out of the midseason top 5.

Why is the pre-tourney number so low? It's hard to say for sure. The easiest answer is probably the idea that the polls reflect record more than ability as the season drags on, and teams that lose a game are very likely to fall (only five of ten national champions won their conference tournaments). But that does not reflect a diminished ability to win it all come March.

CONCLUSIONS

The AP poll is likely the best reflection of popular wisdom regarding college basketball, but it's far from perfect as a predictive tool.

• Whether it's November, January, or March, it's likely we'll get at least one Final Four team that "doesn't belong" based on the polls, and probably more. That is and hopefully always will be the best part of March Madness.
• As far as the Elite Eight and Final Four go, we collectively know nothing in week 8 that we didn't know before the season started. In fact, we might know a little less. It's almost enough to say that pre-January games don't matter at all, except...
• Despite the single-elimination, six-wins required gauntlet of the tournament, the top 5 teams in the AP poll matter, even in preseason, and maybe even more in midseason. In fact, the top 5 AP teams in week 8 have won more national titles in the last decade than the #1 seeds. There's no way that's a sure thing, but regardless, I'll probably take a look at the odds on Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Louisville, and Indiana to win it all come March, no matter what happens between now and then.

Bobcats Quarterly Update: Playing the Young Guys

 As everyone in the Bobcats organization has either implied or just said out loud, this year is less about wins and losses and more about development. 20 or so games in, there are some interesting things that you can already see.

THE BOBCATS ARE LETTING THE YOUNG GUYS PLAY

The six major young players are getting some serious run. Of the possible minutes each player could play, all but Henderson and Biyombo are playing more than 24 minutes in the games they're healthy enough to play. Henderson is still coming back from injury. Biyombo's playing time seems a little more problematic, but he's already trending higher (over 31 minutes per game) in December. If that doesn't seem significant, consider: 5% of possible minutes played is a little over two minutes a game. Over an 82 game season, that's 197 extra minutes, or FOUR full games of extra court time.

 

Other notes on playing the young guys:

• Per 82games.com, 14 of the Bobcats' top 20 lineups feature at least three of the young guys. 6 of those lineups feature at least four. Not only are they getting to play individually, they are playing together.
• Against the Clippers, the Bobcats started Walker, Taylor, MKG, Mullens, and Biyombo. Chris Paul, one of their opponents, had more than double the career starts and minutes played of the Bobcats' entire starting lineup. The lack of experience is real, and will continue to manifest in close games despite the early wins in tight games.
• As much as it may frustrate to watch the late game turnovers and inefficient offense, it doesn't say a lot about what these players will eventually be able to do. Kevin Durant shot 43% from the field (29% from three) as a rookie. Tony Parker started as a rookie, but as a 2nd year player routinely gave way to Speedy Claxton during crunch time in 2003. These guys aren't close to finished products yet. 

Bobcats Quarterly Update: Kemba Walker

As everyone in the Bobcats organization has either implied or just said out loud, this year is less about wins and losses and more about development. 20 or so games in, there are some interesting things that you can already see.

KEMBA WALKER IS A BETTER SCORER THAN LAST YEAR

As previously covered here, the rookie year of Kemba Walker raised more questions than it answered. The raw averages for Walker (18 ppg, 6 apg, 2 spg) look pretty good, but how is he doing it given the struggles we saw shooting last year? Here's a brief look (via Hoopdata):

• Kemba is taking nearly 5 free throws per game, an additional 1.6 on average. That's more than noted in-the-paint point guards like Tony Parker and Ty Lawson.
• At the rim attempts have gone up... a lot. As in, nearly doubled. While he's not as efficient as the best at his position (Parker, Lawson, and Kyrie Irving are all 60%+ on shots at the rim), it's his most efficient shot, and he's taking it more.
• While his attempts from 16-23 feet haven't increased, his efficiency has improved significantly. At 47%, he's close to or better than more polished mid-range shooters like Chris Paul, Steph Curry, Deron Williams, and Jose Calderon in this young season.

While 20 games is an extremely small sample size, the beginning of the season has certainly seen a Kemba Walker more than capable of scoring efficiently with higher usage. Combine that with an improved assist-turnover ratio, and the season has started to yield confirmation that he can more than handle the starting gig as an NBA point guard.


Fixer-Uppers: The NBA's Longest Rebuild Projects

For every fan that tries to read too deeply into an NBA season less than 20% complete, it's important to maintain perspective. This is particularly important for those teams engaged in the always-dreaded, not-quite-satisfying "rebuilding" process. Despite the incredible success (and expedience) of the Thunder's recent rebuilding process, the timeline/path back to the playoffs is much more challenging for other organizations. In fact, many teams take a longer, more circuitous path back to relevance. How are those teams doing?

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

• Years Since Playoff Berth: 8
• Lottery Picks Since: 8
• Top 5 Picks Since: 8

Rebuild Status: COMPLETE.

 

It wasn't the easiest road in the world, to be sure. There were plenty of squandered high lottery picks (Wesley Johnson, Jonny Flynn, Corey Brewer), and highlight-quality blunders in strategy (NBA youngsters running the Triangle offense? Drafting point guards at #4, #6, and #18 of the same draft?). But today, they have one legitimate All-NBA player (Kevin Love), one arguable All-NBA prospect (Ricky Rubio), and nice complimentary pieces (Pekovic, Budinger, Cunningham, Stiemsma, Ridnour).

Injuries probably deprived them of their playoff berth last year, given that they were over .500 before the Rubio ACL injury. Looking at the 82games.com numbers, last year's Rubio-Love-Pekovic lineups were productive, and Chase Budinger can likely add more than Wesley Johnson did to that combination. Assuming no further bad luck, they'll probably start a run of playoff berths in 2013. David Kahn, congratulations on a job... done.

 SACRAMENTO KINGS

• Years Since Playoff Berth: 7
• Lottery Picks Since: 5
• Top 5 Picks Since: 3

Rebuild Status: NOT THAT CLOSE.

How do these individually talented pieces fit together?  Tyreke Evans put up a 20-5-5 season as a rookie (previous company: MJ, Lebron, Oscar), but management had to let him hit restricted free agency in 2013. Cousins is arguably the most talented young big man in the league, but already has one coach's firing on his hands. Aaron Brooks was a borderline All-Star for Houston, but was more scoring PG than distributor. Now his team needs someone to set other people up, even though his career A:TO numbers don't point to that as his best role.

Is the target lineup Brooks-Fredette-Evans-Robinson-Cousins? Maybe Thomas in for Brooks? Thompson for Robinson? Who knows? Last year, the Cousins-Evans-Fredette lineups weren't particularly productive. This year, only one of their top five lineups is meaningfully positive, despite all those lottery picks. Time will tell if they can make it work, but seven years into the rebuild, the results to date have not been encouraging. If I had to guess, I'd say some of these building blocks may flourish in their next stop, and leave us wondering why they couldn't figure it out in Sacramento.

 GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

• Years Since Playoff Berth: 6
• Lottery Picks Since: 5
• Top 5 Picks Since: 0

Rebuild Status: BARRING INJURY, COMPLETE.

It's been a long five years since the "We Believe" Warriors, but the current roster looks like it could be quite formidable going forward. Of course, that all depends on the health of the two injury-prone building blocks, Andrew Bogut and Steph Curry. When healthy, Andrew Bogut has already been an All-NBA performer, capable of game changing production on offense and defense. However, healthy was a long time ago, hence his availability via trade. Curry has provided good offensive production, and while his individual efficiency may suffer playing without Ellis, this could be his chance to show the full offensive package that everyone dreamed of when he came out of college.

The starting lineup looks potentially good (Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Lee-Bogut): a nice mix of shooting and passing around a traditional low post threat. The bench offers a nice mix of veteran (Jack, Rush, Landry) and young talent (Ezeli, Green, Jenkins). Again, health is the biggest question, and if Bogut can't get healthy, plenty will criticize the swapping of Udoh and Ellis for him. But if it works, this looks to me like a perennial playoff team, with upside still lurking in Thompson and Barnes.

CONCLUSIONS

Looking at these teams, a few things jump out.

• Any fanbase that's working on a three year playoff drought (Bobcats, Cavaliers) probably needs to calm down. It could be worse. A lot worse.
• All-NBA talent generally shows up through the draft. Mostly, through a top 5 or top 10 pick (Love, Rubio, Evans, Cousins, Robinson, Barnes, Curry).
• Major talent acquisition outside of the draft involves taking a big risk, be it health (Bogut in GS, Bynum in Philadelphia, Chandler in NY), character (Randolph in Memphis), or otherwise.



Assessing the Bobcats' Pieces: Bismack Biyombo (2012-2013)

As the Bobcats continue their rebuilding process, the key to achieving success will be building a roster of players capable of major contributions on a playoff team. As the 2012-2013 season approaches, it's important to take stock of the key players on the team today, and whether they do (or will) fit that bill.

Bismack Biyombo was a prospect Rich Cho had strong feelings about dating back to his Portland days. The trade-up in the 2011 draft to take him (Detroit was reportedly poised to select him at #8) only reinforced the enthusiasm for him as a player. His physical attributes are so rare, and his relative lack of development rarer still, that a comparable group of players doesn't really jump out. But, there are two recent NBA players that may offer the right context for his play last season: Serge Ibaka and Derrick Favors.

(A big pre-emptive shout-out to www.hoopdata.com, which appears to be some kind of basketball nerd Xanadu. The data cited below comes from their fantastic site.)

Rebounding and Defense

While the total rebound numbers look pretty good, it's better to look at rebound rate to assess the quality of that number. Biyombo's defensive rebound rate is comparable to Favors and Ibaka, but his offensive rebound rate is significantly lower than his peers, and makes his total rebound rate the worst of the three. This is a surprising result given Biyombo's overall motor and intensity, and hopefully improves immediately in his 2nd season.

As for blocks, they are not a singular assessment of a player's defensive ability, but they are a big part of what Biyombo brings to the table. It's encouraging to see that he blocked shots more frequently (and fouled less frequently) than the others. As the more subtle parts of his defensive game develop (rotations, pick-and-roll responsibilities, post defense), his potential as a game-changing defender will become more evident.

Scoring The Ball

As much as people like to compare Biyombo to Ibaka, the comparison breaks down here. The high at-the-rim field goal percentages are nice, but largely expected given the caliber of athletes in this group. However, Biyombo's deficiencies to Ibaka in field goal percentage from 3-9 feet (23%) and 10-15 feet (30%) highlight the work ahead in terms of developing consistent low post offense, touch shots in the paint, and perhaps a face-up jumper. Admittedly, the stat comparisons aren't perfect given the context: Bismack played on the worst team in NBA history, while Ibaka was the 4th or 5th option on a playoff team featuring two All-Stars and the league's leading scorer. Still, it's naive to think there isn't a long way to go here.

Derrick Favors' inclusion is probably important at this point. He played in some similarly dysfunctional contexts as a rookie, and has a great work ethic, loads of athletic ability, and the benefit of youth to explain his skill level. However, it's hard to see an immediate jump from Year 1 to Year 2:

Now, it's debatable whether the biggest jump for players happens in Year 2 or Year 3. There is some level of improvement expected, and it might make sense to monitor his play going forward, as a potential signpost for Biyombo's development.

Verdict

Bismack's rookie year provided some impressive glimpses into the player he could be one day, from a double-double against Dwight Howard to securing one of the seven Bobcats wins last year. His age and commitment to the game increase the likelihood that he'll harness his impressive physical gifts. But, as it stands today, his limited offensive ability doesn't allow a valid comparison to Serge Ibaka. And it's hard to find an example of a player whose offensive repertoire started at this level and blossomed into league-average or better. Unless something remarkable happens during this season, I suspect this debate will be re-kindled in about a year's time.

Assessing the Bobcats' Pieces: Kemba Walker (2012-2013)

As the Bobcats continue their rebuilding process, the key to achieving success will be building a roster of players capable of major contributions on a playoff team. As the 2012-2013 season approaches, it's important to take stock of the key players on the team today, and whether they do (or will) fit that bill.

Kemba Walker came to the Bobcats on draft night with a decent amount of fanfare. Coming off a Player of the Year caliber season, and a national championship at UConn, his transition to the NBA as a 21 year old rookie might have seemed easier than other draftees. However, as the worst season in NBA history progressed, questions inevitably surfaced as to whether or not Walker was a key reason for the futility. So, with that in mind, it seems reasonable to compare his rookie season to recent rookie point guards that were 6-1 in height, and see what that says about his future NBA prospects.

Facilitating the Offense

It goes without saying, the Bobcats were one of the worst offenses in NBA history by several metrics. However, it's difficult to point to Walker as the main cause. Kemba Walker's rookie assist per game numbers (4.4) are better than Mike Conley, Rajon Rondo, and Ty Lawson. Not only that, Walker's assist-to-turnover ratio (2.43) is better than those three as well. All three of those guys are at least above-average NBA starters, and even on the worst team in NBA history, Walker fared better than they did as rookies on that front.

Scoring the Ball

As a habit, I continue to look at points per shot (total points versus total FGA and FTA) to measure player efficiency scoring the ball. While Walker's raw points per game appear average, he was an inefficient scorer; only Rondo was worse. How did this happen? Walker was essentially middle of the pack shooting free throws and threes. On two point attempts, however, only Brandon Jennings was less efficient as a rookie.

There are several reasons why a 6-1 (listed) point guard would struggle as a rookie on two point attempts.

• NBA defenders are taller, longer, quicker, and smarter than their college counterparts. Thus, scoring one-on-one is more difficult all over the floor.
• NBA defenses are more sophisticated and focused than other levels. The schemes and rotations are often tailored to make an off-the-dribble creator move the ball or take a contested shot.
• Rookies are perceived to get fewer calls than more experienced players on shot attempts, particularly in the paint and near the rim.

As a rookie transitioning to the NBA, that's a significant amount of challenges to overcome. But, those limitations are the same for everyone in this group, and they all face the same height limitations relative to their peers of prototypical PG size. The question is... will it get better?

Looking at the other five rookies on the list who struggled on two point attempts, the answer seems to be yes. Four out of five (Jennings, Augustin, Rondo, Felton) got better on two point attempts from Year 1 to Year 3. Also, those four also shot a higher number of free throw attempts per game. (The fifth player, Jonny Flynn, had a significant decrease in minutes in Year 3, along with being traded).

Verdict

Kemba Walker's rookie year has not offered much insight into the kind of player he will be in two years. An optimist could look at Rondo's statistical leap as a blueprint (unlikely, since the Bobcats didn't add Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen in the offseason). A pessimist could say that Walker's output singlehandedly keeps the Bobcats from ever making the playoffs (also unlikely, since Brandon Jennings put up comparable efficiency and assist-turnover numbers while leading his team to the playoffs in 2009-2010).

When I look at the other guys on the list, I see three guys (Paul, Rondo, Lawson) whose games will be difficult to emulate. I also see four guys who started for playoff teams (Nelson, Conley, Jennings, Felton) that Walker could equal and possibly surpass. Like every young player, there are anecdotal things that Walker could improve (using the roll man better on pick-and-rolls, running offense earlier in the shot clock). But, as with everything involving the Bobcats, it's going to take a while before we know the answer. I, for one, am still a believer.

Preseason View of the 2013 Draft Class

(Preseason View of the 2012 Draft Class)

Now that Midnight Madness has officially started the college basketball season, it's as good a time as any to look at those prospects already high on the radar screens of the NBA. This is, by no means, an exact science... of the 9 consensus lottery picks on the two noted mock drafts last year, 6 were actually drafted in the lottery. But, this could still help identify teams to watch during the season (example: last year's list convinced me to watch more Washington games than planned).

 

TIER 1: LOTTERY PICKS (8 Consensus, 15 Total)

Last Year: 13 Players, 11 Declared, 11 Drafted, 10 1st Rounders, 7 Lottery Picks 

 

The top 4 appear to be pretty set in stone, and Kentucky has three prospects as consensus lottery, versus two last year (hard to believe the metoric rise of MKG in twelve months as far as draft boards were concerned). As always, the fall risks always appear to be the guys that came back. A year ago Perry Jones and Jared Sullinger were considered lottery locks as returning sophomores. The only two who could be on the same path are Cody Zeller and James McAdoo, with McAdoo the bigger fall risk of the two.

 

 





TIER 2: 1ST ROUND CONSIDERATION (10 Consensus, 28 Total)
Last year: 21 Players, 11 Declared, 11 Drafted, 6 1st Rounders, 3 Lottery

There's a lot more debate at the bottom of the 1st round than last year, but it's so dependent on who declares and who doesn't, it's hard to nail any of these down. The most intriguing guys to start the year should be Austin, the Baylor freshman, followed by the eerily-similar-to-Jeff-Green Otto Porter at Georgetown. Outside of that, there's the usual collection of untapped raw potential (Austin, Mbakwe, Leslie, Dieng, Smith), older players with perceived lower ceilings (McCollum, Plumlee, McDermott), and some best guesses.

The best part about this? Guys like Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Dion Waiters, Damian Lillard, and Meyers Leonard. Guys that weren't in either group last year, all lottery picks in June. As a whole, there's a lot we think we know, and even more that we don't know.

The Market for Starting PG's (aka the Jeremy Lin Offer Sheet)

Jeremy Lin's 3 year, $25.1mm offer sheet seems to be provoking opinions from every possible corner of the NBA world. Setting aside the shrewdness of the Houston Rockets' offer (the tax-punishing year 3 salary of $15mm), the question that everyone seems to be asking (and answering): is Jeremy Lin worth this much money?

Is the Jeremy Lin Deal Fair Market Value for an NBA Point Guard?

While most people are taking a crack at this question, a large component that seems to be missing is assessing the market for starting NBA point guards, in terms of annual salary. Looking at the 28 NBA teams whose starting point guards and salaries are readily available (assuming that Lin is a Houston Rocket, and Felton is the Knicks' starting point guard), the data looks like this.

Based on Jeremy Lin's soon-to-be average salary ($8.4mm), he'll be making a little more than the league average. Now, while it seems odd that a guy with so few starts could command an above-market salary, remember that many of these players are not on "market" contracts. They're on rookie deals, which restrict their true market value. Removing the players on their rookie deals...



Among this group, the truly "market" contracts for starting point guards, Lin's annual salary seems more reasonable. Aside from the true franchise point guards (Williams, Rose, Paul, Westbrook, Parker, Rondo), there's a valid argument that Lin's production over the next 3 years could exceed each of the other players on the list.

Is Jeremy Lin's Value Inflated by the D'Antoni System?

Another way to look at Lin's value: was he a product of the system? D'Antoni point guards put up video game numbers, and it inflates their value. So, what have D'Antoni point guards done over the last few years?

Look at the starting point guards for the last four D'Antoni Knick teams. Based on the numbers per 36 minutes, three things jump out: first, the other two guys clearly outperformed their career stats in the D'Antoni system; some inflation does exist. Second, a younger, woefully inexperienced Lin outperformed those guys individually and won a higher percentage of games, with similar or lesser talent surrounding him. Third, Duhon and Felton were paid an average of $6.4mm per year to be the starting point guard for a D'Antoni team. If Lin plays in a similar system for the next 3 years, he'll be getting paid an additional $2mm over that average.

What's the Bottom Line?

Jeremy Lin's offer sheet, much like his rise to fame, boasts some startling numbers that don't make a lot of sense in isolation. But, putting the numbers in perspective makes them seem less outrageous. Questions about his ability to stand up to an 82 game season, and a league more honed in on shutting him down, are real. Questions about how his game will look outside the consequence-free, up-tempo environs of the Linsanity Knicks are warranted. However, his average salary (however back-loaded it may be) isn't far off the market for a point guard. The numbers he put up with the Knicks are better than his predecessors at the position. And, no matter how much he draws at the gate, eventually his talent will show to be genuine or fleeting. It's a reasonable risk to take, and like many free agent signings, his play will soon make several GM's look like geniuses or goats.





2012 Bobcats Draft Strategy

Last Year's NBA Draft Strategy

The NBA draft is almost here. That means it's time to sum up all the college tape, combine measurements, and pre-draft workouts, and pick players. Given the Bobcats' current (and potential) picks, and since NBA GM's will face the repercussions of their picks for years, it's only fair to put up some picks against theirs.

#2 Pick (or #4 Pick)
IDEAL PICK: ANDRE DRUMMOND.
I would be happy with either Drummond or Robinson. Reasonable minds can certainly differ on the risk-reward of each guy, and what the Bobcats need to rebuild their team as of today. I lean slightly towards Drummond because of overall potential, and a more favorable view of his work ethic and demeanor than others. Having said that, I'd have no problems with Robinson, I think they both have legitimate chances at being All-NBA level performers. The only guy who probably shouldn't by Charlotte specifically is Barnes, not because of ability, but because of the obstacles inherent in another UNC player playing in Charlotte.

Other Acceptable Picks (in order of preference): Thomas Robinson, Harrison Barnes, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

#24 (assuming Cleveland trade goes through)
IDEAL PICK: QUINCY MILLER
My fondness for Miller has been documented previously, and think the tremendous upside warrants a selection. Jeff Taylor's athleticism, motor, and intangibles translate to a borderline starter at SF (strong defense at 2 or 3, 3 point shooting, transition finishing) with a floor of rotation player. I can see both being good picks, but I'd roll the dice with Quincy, and hope that year 2 of his ACL recovery reveals the lottery talent most believe is lurking in that body.

Other Acceptable Picks (in order of preference): Jeff Taylor, Evan Fournier, trading for a 1st rounder next year

#31
IDEAL PICK: TONY WROTEN.
First off, if any of the previous three guys are still available, take them here immediately. But, if they're not... not many 6-5, athletic freshmen point guards last this long in the draft. There are certainly reasons for that: bad shooting stroke, difficulty driving and finishing to the right, defensive lapses, etc. This is more of an upside pick (Barton a little less so), but a big point guard with his natural abilities would be a great asset if harnessed correctly. And, to be honest, I'd rather roll the dice with either Wroten or Barton than take a swing with the plethora of undersized college 2 guards that are certain to be available (John Jenkins, Doron Lamb, Kim English)

Other Acceptable Picks (in order of preference): Will Barton, Kyle O'Quinn

A final thought: looking at each of the three picks above, two common themes emerge: positional versatility and significant upside. The Bobcats shouldn't be going anywhere in the next 1-2 years, and the long term competitiveness of the franchise doesn't need to be undermined for prospects more ready to contribute tomorrow. All three of the 2nd place picks (Robinson, Taylor, Barton) are a trade-off of ceiling versus bust potential. Given the state of the Bobcats roster, and the talent available at these spots, these picks seem like reasonable risks to take.

Heat Thunder Summary

Best Player / Most Valuable Player: Dwyane Wade (Individual +35, Net +18). Lebron will deservedly get most of the credit for this series. But the numbers point to his sidekick as top dog in the Finals. His overall numbers (22 ppg, 6 rpg, 5 apg, 44% FG pct) are a slight uptick from the regular season. His ball-handling, particularly finding openings in the pick-and-roll, were a key to the series win. But there's a part of this that numbers can't capture: last year, Wade got the Jerome James award for, in part, holding James back in the Finals. One year later, it looks like he helped unleash him, and willingly took the sidekick role for the good of the team.

Worst Player / Least Valuable Player: Serge Ibaka (Individual -23, Net -12). Serge Ibaka is a great defensive talent. In my opinion, he's going to make another jump in offensive skill over the next 1-2 years. But, playoff series are about matchups. Ibaka's strengths (help-side shot blocking, occasional mid-range jumpers) were negated by the Heat (passing around the help defense, driving directly at the shot-blocker). His shortcomings (no low post offense, inconsistent rotations) were exploited at critical points in several games. As Thunder fans debate whether Ibaka or Harden deserve the last big contract OKC can afford to pay, I'll go with consensus and say Ibaka is the better long term fit. But this series was not his moment to shine.

Reverse Jerome James Award: Erik Spoelstra. When Lebron, Wade, and Bosh came together, the obvious assumption was that all that talent would easily steamroll the league. Based on that, Spoelstra was essentially handed a no-win situation in the eyes of public perception. Winning was a foregone conclusion, right? Well, 12 out of 20 ESPN experts picked the Thunder to win this series. The fact is, the three assumed weaknesses of the Heat (hero ball offense, weak roster outside the Big 3, poor clutch play) were each reversed in this series:

 - 90 assists on 178 field goals (51%) versus OKC's 79 assists on 183 field goals (43%)
 - Miami's other guys outscored OKC's other guys by 41 points in 5 games
 - 3 point lead with 1:47 left in Game 2 (won); 1 point lead with 1:30 left in Game 3 (won); tie game with 3:15 left in Game 4 (won)

He's never going to get a ton of credit, but Coach Spo did what few thought could be done as recently as two weeks ago. He won a title with the 2012 Miami Heat.

How Odd is the Mike Dunlap Hire?

The Charlotte Bobcats have hired Mike Dunlap as their head coach. The decision is surprising for multiple reasons:

• he was not known to be among the initial candidates for the job (a list that included Patrick Ewing, Jerry Sloan, etc.) 
• he was not known to be among the finalists for the job (Brian Shaw, Quin Snyder)
• the majority of NBA fans do not know who he is

Aside from the initial shock factor, there are several gut reactions/reasonable questions running through the mind of Bobcats fans.

Gut Reaction: "This is a crazy hire. He has no experience."
Reasonable Question: "How does Dunlap's experience compare to other recent NBA hires?"

The majority of NBA coaches hired are re-treads, guys who have already been head coaches somewhere. In fact, 19 of the 29 current head coaches in the league had prior experience as head coach of an NBA team. (Incidentally, most coaches get fired because they weren't doing well: Randy Wittman's prior head coaching experience included a 0.32 win pct in over 300 games before getting hired to coach the Wizards).

Nine other NBA head coaches had NBA assistant coach as their best relevant experience. Of those guys, experience ranges from 10+ years (Tom Thibodeau, Larry Drew, Spoelstra), 5-10 years (Monty Williams, Scott Brooks, Gregg Popovich, Tyrone Corbin), and less than five years (Kaleb Canales, Mike Dunlap). Bottom line: Dunlap's NBA experience is on the light end of the spectrum, but he's definitely not the least experienced. That honor has to go to either Canales or Mark Jackson (no previous coaching experience at the college or NBA level).

Gut Reaction: "If we weren't getting a veteran coach, we should hire the big-name young talent."
Reasonable Question: "Were the other coaches better candidates?"

The results here are surprising. Quin Snyder's resume (outside of college) included 3 years as a head coach in the D-League, and one year as an NBA assistant as his most recent job. That job experience is identical to the resume of Sam Vincent prior to his ill-fated hiring as the Bobcats' coach.

Brian Shaw has certainly paid his dues as an assistant, and the pedigree of the Phil Jackson coaching tree (Triangle offense included) is certainly tempting. But he's not the only Jackson assistant coach to look for a head coaching gig. Kurt Rambis was also an assistant under Phil for years, and was hired by Minnesota to bring the Triangle offense to the T-Wolves in 2009. After two years and 32 combined wins, he was fired. And failure is not confined to Jackson disciples. John Kuester was an assistant coach who had paid his dues in the league. After the Cavaliers' 2009 season, he was a hot commodity. But after 2 years coaching the Pistons (29 wins per year), he was fired. The hot young coaching prospect does not always pan out immediately, particularly with young teams short on talent.

Gut Reaction: "The Bobcats knocked themselves way off track with this hire."
Reasonable Question: "Does this hire fit within the Bobcats' rebuilding plan?"

No two rebuilding plans are exactly the same. Indiana re-tooled their roster with savvy trades and nice draft picks in the middle of the 1st round. The Clippers swapped part of their young core for a current superstar. The Thunder tore down and rebuilt around a ludicrously young core, patiently waiting for them to grow.

Regardless of which plan is the Bobcats, the overwhelming likelihood is that if the roster looks like it can win, the coach will turn over before the roster. It happened with Jim O'Brien in Indiana (fired), Mike Dunleavy with the Clippers (fired), Lebron's first head coach (Paul Silas - fired), Derrick Rose's (Vinny Del Negro - fired), Chris Paul's (Byron Scott - fired), Dwight Howard's (Brian Hill - fired), Carmelo Anthony's (Jeff Bzdelik - fired)... Incidentally, most of those coaches were fired within 3 years of their respective superstar's arrival, and prior head coaching experience didn't save their jobs.

At the end of the day, here are the facts: Mike Dunlap has been hired for 2 years, with an option for a 3rd. He is light on experience relative to other hired NBA coaches. Regardless of his resume, no one really knows how he's going to do as a head coach, for better or worse. And, in all honesty, who gets added to this roster is probably twice as important as who's coaching them at this point. Bobcats fans shouldn't be wondering if this is the coach that can win with the Bobcats. The real question to think about: 2 years from now, will any coach be able to win with the Bobcats' roster?

Heat Celtics Summary

Best Player / Most Valuable Player: Dwyane Wade (Individual +60, Net +30). This was a surprising result, considering: 1) Lebron's consistently strong play throughout the series, and 2) the circumstantial evidence of Wade complaining about non-calls while the Celtics were scoring in transition. It's interesting that, after a year of blaming Lebron for all the Heat's ills, popular opinion seems to be giving Wade a larger share of the blame for each setback. With matchups against Westbrook or Harden looming, the Finals should be very interesting for D-Wade.

Worst Player: Paul Pierce (Individual -38). Four years ago, Pierce and James went shot-for-shot in Game 7 of a playoff series, a few weeks before Pierce opined on his standing as the best player in the world. Fast forward to today, and Pierce's numbers in the series were significantly worse than his prior work in these playoffs. 34% shooting (26% on 3's), more turnovers than assists, and generally lackluster defense on James or Wade.

Least Valuable Player: Mario Chalmers (Net -26). Matched up with Rondo, Chalmers was going to be a big factor in this series regardless of the outcome. Judging by Rondo's performance, it seems like Miami won despite a poor series from Super Mario. Unfortunately for him, his next matchup (Russell Westbrook) is arguably just as daunting.

Jerome James Award: Kevin Garnett / Rajon Rondo. Three years ago, Lebron James and the Cavaliers were defeated by the Orlando Magic in the Eastern Conference Finals. At the end of the series, James chose to leave the court before shaking hands with the other team, and blew off his obligatory postgame media session. Along with fines from the league, sportswriters had a lot to say about his very unsportsmanlike act:

"If boxers, after getting pummeled by an opponent, can get off the canvas and shake a man's hand, then so can a basketball player, no matter how famous. James, like so many others before him, is going to have to grow accustomed to crushing losses. Only the great Bill Russell, for the most part, avoided them. Wilt lost, Kareem lost, Magic and Bird lost, Jordan lost. But as far as I know, they maintained a level of sportsmanship that isn't optional." - Mike Wilbon

"So, this is new-era sportsmanship as defined by King James: Winners don’t shake hands with their opponents after they lose; competitors storm off when the result doesn’t go their way." - Bill Rhoden

I agree that, as superficial as it may be in the moment, the post-series handshake represents mutual respect by opponents, a key component of athletic competition. Lebron James rightly took a lot of criticism, because competitors should show respect in victory and defeat. So, where's the collective disgust and outrage over Kevin Garnett and Rajon Rondo doing the exact same thing Lebron did at the end of Game 7? The silence on this subject is confirmatory of a simple fact: perception of the Heat and Celtics players drive their respective media coverage more than reality. The Heat are villains, and the Celtics are heroes. Everything that confirms those perceptions is emphasized, and everything that contradicts them is disregarded or ignored. But, when I look at each team objectively, I see three All-NBA talents that chose to team up and win rather than go it alone and lose. The only major difference between them is one championship ring... for now. From that perspective, it's hard to see the relative treatment of the Celtics and Heat as anything but a double standard.

Thunder Spurs Summary

Best Player: James Harden (Individual +38). His ascension up the ranks of the NBA's shooting guards continues. The comparisons to Manu Ginobli at the beginning of the series seemed entirely premature, given Manu's 3 championship rings and an non-U.S. Olympic gold medal. Well, Harden is 4 wins away from starting his own resume. If you try to list the NBA's best shooting guards at the beginning of the season, it probably looked like: Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade, Manu Ginobli, Eric Gordon, James Harden. Looking forward over the next decade, and crossing the first three names off the list, does that mean James Harden will soon be the 2nd best shooting guard in the league?

Worst Player: Kawhi Leonard (Individual -24). In the last series, I tried to temper enthusiasm for both Leonard and Green. Unfortunately, Leonard was one of the people tasked with trying to stop Kevin Durant in the 4th quarter. Regardless of this series, he's a reliable 3-pointer and one dribble pull-up away from being extremely valuable to any team in the league.

Most Valuable Player: Tim Duncan (Net +34). For the last three years, every postseason conversation about the Spurs seemed to include a consensus that Tim Duncan was losing effectiveness rapidly. Whether by matchups or miracles (probably a little of both), his production in the middle of the Spurs' small lineups was impressive. As always, the development of a solid sidekick in the middle will say a lot about the Spurs' seemingly endless championship hopes.

Least Valuable Player: Kendrick Perkins (Net -22). Either it was Tony Parker on the pick-and-roll, or single covering Tim Duncan in the post down the stretch of Games 5 and 6. Regardless, this was not the series for Perkins. And, really, with Boston and Miami looming, will he be taken off the court again in the Finals due to the matchups?

Reverse Jerome James Award: Russell Westbrook. Let's be honest, most people believe that Russell Westbrook is the Achilles heel of the Thunder. Get in his head, watch him shoot his team out of the game. Tony Parker even attempted some pre-series gamesmanship by calling Westbrook "the head of the snake." Turns out, Westbrook didn't have a stellar series shooting the ball (0.81 PPS) or making plays (7.3 assist versus 3.3 turnovers). He also had a better plus/minus than Durant in 4 out of 6 games. While the whole world gets exasperated with every missed shot, maybe everyone should take a cue from Durant: he seems to understand better than we do that Westbrook's impact has a lot more to do with his shooting percentage.

The Bobcats Rebuilding Plan: 2012 Edition

The Bobcats are starting year 2 of their rebuilding process. As noted previously, the "tear down to build up" strategy has worked for Memphis and Oklahoma City, only it took 4 years for each team. At the end of year 1, how does the situation look?

• Roster. One year ago, the team had arguably two players that might be starters on a contender: DJ Augustin and Gerald Henderson. Today? The team has four (DJ Augustin, Gerald Henderson, Kemba Walker, and Bismack Biyombo).
• Salary Cap. One year ago, the expiring contracts of note were Boris Diaw ($9 million) and Eduardo Najera ($2.6 million), with $20 million coming in 2013 (Stephen Jackson, Diop, Carroll). Today? The Diaw and Najera contracts are gone, and the same $20 million cap relief is coming in 2013, with the added bonus of moving up 12 spots in the draft (for Biyombo), courtesy of effectively swapping S-Jax for Maggette.

So, year 1 provided some positive steps despite the historically awful record. And, while the #1 pick didn't fall the Bobcats' way, that doesn't knock the plan completely off the rails. With that in mind, here's a few suggested steps that the Bobcats should take in the next two months.

1. Draft Andre Drummond or Thomas Robinson. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I really like both of them as prospects,, and think both offer reasonable risk/reward. I lean slightly toward the former versus the latter (the easy part about being an armchair quarterback: you get to hedge your bets, while the pros have to make a pick. I don't envy you at the moment, Rich Cho).

2. Trade DJ Augustin for the #16 pick. In case you didn't know, the Houston Rockets have some issues at PG. Kyle Lowry wants to be traded, and Goran Dragic is an attractive free agent target. As insurance, they might be persuaded that a one-year insurance policy at point guard is worth their 2nd 1st round pick. So, why should the Bobcats let him go?

First, it gives Kemba Walker the full time point guard role (and rids us of the dreaded 6-foot backcourt). Second, there's a strong possibility that Quincy Miller will be there at #16, a prospect I truly believe has elite NBA scoring potential. He's generally disregarded as a player coming out a year early, but that has little to do with his ultimate NBA value. Definitely worth the pick.

3. Sign Roy Hibbert to an offer sheet. Over the last 4 years, Hibbert has proven to be a durable anchor on the offensive and defensive sides of the floor, in addition to being a great locker room example for younger guys. Market value for his services is probably in the DeAndre Jordan / Marc Gasol range ($11-15 million per year). Signing him to the high end would either 1) convince him to join the Bobcats, or 2) force a conference rival to pay at-or-above market value. (Note: this might work, to a lesser extent, with Brook Lopez).

Why should the Bobcats spend their cap room like this? Well, because they've got a lot of it. Starting with the summer of 2013, the Bobcats will have over $30 million a year in salary cap room with its amnesty still intact (another $8 million if Tyrus is cut loose). Signing Hibbert at a $15 million clip and using the amnesty on Thomas would only use a net $6-7 million of all thet cap room. That means that there'd still be plenty of room to sign a max free agent.
Assuming all this happens, the Bobcats roster would look very different.
PG: Kemba Walker, Cory Higgins
SG: Gerald Henderson, Matt Carroll
SF: Quincy Miller, Corey Maggette
PF: Andre Drummond / Thomas Robinson, Bismack Biyombo
C: Roy Hibbert, BJ Mullens
So, you don't have to be completely depressed that the team lost out on Anthony Davis. The team still needs a teaching head coach and a decent veteran backup at point guard, but there are paths back to relevance that don't involve the 'Brow.

Heat Pacers Summary

Best Player: Lebron James (Individual +39). The best thing about watching Lebron in this series had to be the passing displays he put on the last 3 games. Even as a high schooler, his passing ability stood out as sublime. Well, even if his career's development has been more MJ than Magic, he continues to prove that, when in command of all his abilities, he's a one man wrecking crew.
Worst Player: Leandro Barbosa (Individual -26). This is less a reflection on Leandro, and more likely a reflection of a current chink in the Pacers' collective armor. As a great defensive team, they'll likely be in most games even in the playoffs, but at a certain point, someone has to take the reins and find a bucket in crunch time. When looking at the similar plus/minus numbers for Darren Collison, it's clear that this was a problem, particularly for the 2nd unit.
Most Valuable Player: Roy Hibbert (Net +44). Much like Marc Gasol last year, his seems pre-destined to be the summer contract that raises a few skeptical eyebrows. Well, if you look at Roy's numbers compared to the best centers in the league over the last 3 years (Howard, M. Gasol, Bynum, Chandler), he gives you slightly less production, fewer minutes per game, but more actual games played. And those other 4 guys are currently on contracts that average $15.7 million per year. So a 5 year / $60 million deal ($12 million per) doesn't seem that crazy to me.
Least Valuable Player: Dwyane Wade (Net -20). Whether it was nagging injuries, difficult defensive matchups (like Paul George), or some other reason, this was not D-Wade's best series. One thing I don't understand... with the Thunder, the national media seem to obsess about the shot count of Durant versus Westbrook, presuming that since Durant is the better player, he has to take more shots for the team to play better. Given the utter dominance Lebron is submitting, shouldn't we be doing the same thing for the Heat?
Reverse Jerome James Award: Danny Granger. It feels like Rudy Gay, Andre Iguodala, Danny Granger, Pau Gasol, Josh Smith, Russell Westbrook, and Chris Bosh should start a support group called "I'm Not the Scapegoat Everytime." Is Granger one of the best 15 players in the NBA? No. Is he better than Kevin Durant, Lebron James, or Carmelo Anthony? No. That's because those are arguably the three best scorers in the NBA. The Pacers aren't trying to win a superstar arms race. They're trying to build the Spurs East. You don't hear the Spurs complaining that Tony Parker isn't as good as Chris Paul or Russell Westbrook or Steve Nash. They know he's a cog in a machine, and the machine wins or loses on more than one guy's contribution. Maybe Pacers fans should try that next season.

Thunder Lakers Summary

Best Player: Russell Westbrook (Individual +51). Nevermind that, for two series in a row, the best player in a Lakers series was the opposing point guard (can't blame it on Fisher's defense, either). 2 years ago, it was such a big deal that Kobe Bryant decided to guard Russell, it must have single-handedly swung the series that year... a series that would've gone seven if Pau hadn't tipped in a Bryant airball at the end of Game 6. Fast forward two years, and Westbrook has evolved into the kind of offensive force that cannot be shut down, only contained if his shot is falling. The "if" part of that sentence probably decides the Western Conference finals.

Worst Player: Pau Gasol (Individual -49). Just one year ago, I was staunchly defending the Spaniard, whose plus/minus numbers held up surprisingly well in the 4-0 loss to the Mavericks. That wasn't the case here. With Bynum and Bryant demanding virtually all low post touches, and with Ibaka waiting to send every gentle layup into the upper deck, Gasol had very little chance of positively impacting the series. Although, he did surprisingly little with the 2nd unit as its primary scorer. However, I think there's plenty left in the tank, and some other win-now contenders could easily fit him into their plans (Atlanta, trading Josh Smith or Miami, trading Chris Bosh).

Most Valuable Player: Andrew Bynum (Net +24). The heir apparent of the Lakers handled himself quite well, and aside from motoring down on occasion (and, honestly, what dominant center of the last 20 years didn't have his motor questioned at times), seems to be a very strong future as a franchise player ahead of him. Hard to argue that a roster centered around his talents won't do well for the next 5 years.

Least Valuable Player: Derek Fisher (Net -21). Other than looking a lot fresher in his spot duty relative to his starter days as a Laker, there's just not a lot to say here.

Jerome James Award: Jordan Hill. It's hard to believe that three years ago, the draft world thought more of Jordan Hill than Brandon Jennings, Jrue Holiday, and Ty Lawson. Now, while the other three have had the better careers to this point, has Jordan Hill had the opportunity to show his stuff? Not really. Hopefully, the 2012 playoffs showed GM's enough to give him a shot next year and beyond. But, let's be honest... playing alongside Kobe Bryant and Andrew Bynum doesn't give us the best gauge of his game. Hopefully, his market value reflects that.

Spurs Clippers Summary

(In a nod to reader commentary, the customary summary box will now come at the end.)

Best Player / Most Valuable Player: Tony Parker (Individual +56, Net +21). He's officially a 2nd team All-NBA player this year, so it's a little harder to say he's under-rated. But why is it that players like Paul Pierce and Chauncy Billups get so much more credit than TP? He's got as many Finals MVP's (one) as they do, and he's got more overall rings (3) than they do combined. In the discussion of best point guards in the league, everyone agrees on some order of Rose, CP3, and Deron Williams at the top... I think, based on resume, Tony deserves to be on that level.

Worst Player: Chris Paul (Individual -37). He's arguably the best pure point guard in the league, and most would say that he belongs on the short list of fiercest competitors in the NBA: Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade, Chris Paul. Well, the true test of competitive fire should be postseason success, right? Both Carmelo Anthony and Deron Williams (supposedly me-first, coach-killing, stat-hunting players) have led teams to the Western Conference finals, losing only to the eventual NBA champions. Chris Paul has never played in the conference finals. It's likely that he gets there soon, but at this point, perception might be bigger than production.

Least Valuable Player (Net -24): Tiago Splitter. Last year, I was so confident in the evolution of Tiago Splitter, that I was willing to take the Spurs as preseason sleepers to win the NBA title. While that team did manage to grab the West's best record, Splitter wasn't a huge reason why. It'll be interesting to see if he's more productive against forwards and centers that pose less of an offensive threat in OKC.

Jerome James Award: Kawhi Leonard / Danny Green. Both these guys have played well for the Spurs in this postseason. As far as Kawhi goes, some may remember my enthusiasm for him in last year's draft:

"I see shades of Gerald Wallace (great rebounder, energy and versatility on defense), with a little sprinkle of Andre Iguodala (underrated passer handling the ball, particularly in the open court, potential lockdown defender). Is he the best player on a title contending team? No. But the last 6 champions needed a glue guy wing defender like this on their team (Prince, Bowen, Posey, Bowen, Posey, Ariza, Artest)."

They've both been important cogs in the San Antonio machine. But the Spurs organization is just that - a machine. A machine that can run smoothly with parts that other people have discarded or devalued. Part of that is freeing players to do what they do best, and hiding their weaknesses. A bigger part is getting to play next to 3 All-Star caliber players, one of whom is the greatest power forward of all time. Everyone sees the wonderful abilities of Stephen Jackson and Boris Diaw on display now, but any Bobcat fan can tell you that those guys either couldn't or wouldn't produce like this for a lesser team. Let's remember that when assessing these players: this could be hint of things to come for both Leonard and Green, or it could be a perfect marriage of player and circumstance.

Steve Kerr is Wrong About Raising the Age Limit

Last week, Steve Kerr wrote a piece on Grantland concerning the NBA's current age limit. It's hard to say that there's a definitive right or wrong answer to the question he posed: is there an ideal age for players to enter the NBA? However, there were several points that seemed carelessly constructed or simply wrong, and I feel compelled to show the other side of his viewpoint.

1. Player Maturity

Kerr makes the point that a trend among young NBA players is a lack of maturity. Many of them seem unprepared to deal with the rigors of the NBA. That's probably because outside of playing in a foreign professional league like Brandon Jennings or Tony Parker did (neither of whom played college basketball), there is no good preparation for living life as an NBA player. And, for every example of an immature young player, there's an example of petulant behavior from players that went to college for 2+ years.

• Allen Iverson (2 college years) won scoring titles with little postseason success for years.
• Shaquille O'Neal (2 college years) didn't become a champion until Phil Jackson got him to fully commit, for 48 minutes, on both ends of the court.
• Chauncey Billups (2 college years) played for 4 teams before "figuring it out."
• Metta World Peace (2 college years) has had 2 careers' worth of issues.
• Deron Williams (3 college years) constantly clashed with Jerry Sloan, eventually prompting the longest-tenured coach in the NBA to resign rather than deal with him.

Basketball players, like everyone else, mature at different speeds. College is not a magic elixir to speed that process up.

2. Financial Costs

According to Kerr, the one-and-done rule harms the NBA financially by 1) allowing players to make more money by having longer careers (which is supposedly bad for some reason); and 2) losing the NBA money because teams invest money in bad draft picks versus good ones.

First off, NBA team salary levels aren't really dependent on the age of their players, for two reasons:

• NBA teams have to spend 85% of the salary cap each year on players. If they don't, like the Kings didn't a few years ago, they have to distribute the shortfall to all the players on the roster.
• The collective bargaining agreement guarantees that NBA players have to receive at least 49% of the league's basketball-related income.

Second, being an college upperclassmen doesn't make the draft evaluations any more accurate. There have been plenty of poorly evaluated players that spent 2+ years in college.

• Adam Morrison (Jr) was drafted ahead of Brandon Roy (Sr) in 2006.
• Nick Young (Jr) was drafted ahead of Aaron Afflalo (Jr) in 2007.
• Jason Thompson (Sr) was drafted ahead of Roy Hibbert (Sr) in 2008.
• Tyler Hansbrough (Sr) was drafted ahead of Ty Lawson (Jr) in 2009.
• James Anderson (Jr) was drafted ahead of Landry Fields (Sr) in 2010. Also, Jeremy Lin (Sr) went undrafted.
• Chris Singleton (Jr) was drafted ahead of Kenneth Faried (Sr) in 2011. 

3. Player Development

Using the examples of Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, and Michael Jordan, Kerr makes the argument that players with 2+ years of college experience arrive ready to play. Aside from the obvious flaw in using 3 of the 10 best players of all time as normal examples, that doesn't mean young players don't ever contribute right away. Younger players have stepped in and improved a team immediately.

• Amare Stoudemire took the Suns to playoffs in 2003 as a rookie out of high school. In his first ever playoff series, matched up with Tim Duncan (league MVP) and the eventual champion Spurs, he averaged 14 and 8, shooting 52% from the field.
• Carmelo Anthony joined the Denver Nuggets in 2003, turning a 17 win team into a 43 win playoff team as a rookie.
• Derrick Rose led the Bulls to the playoffs in his rookie year, taking the defending NBA champion Celtics to 7 games in arguably the greatest 1st round playoff series ever.

4. Marketing

College basketball is a great way to get non-NBA players national exposure at little to no cost to the NBA, giving the league an immediate boost in business for the teams that draft them. Kerr believes that the power of this effect has waned since the rookie years of Ewing, Jordan, Bird, Magic, and Hakeem, even asking rhetorically, "how often does that happen today?"

Well, as it turns out, in today's NBA, it happens quite a bit. To the right you can see the largest increases in home attendance over the past 10 seasons. Overall, there are two main drivers: winning, and big-time rookies. Lebron James, Kevin Durant, Carmelo Anthony all generated significant buzz despite only 1 year of college. Yao Ming and Ricky Rubio were big draws despite never playing a single college game. How many college upperclassmen registered with fans as rookies? There's no alum on the list from the 2-time national champion Florida Gators. No players from UConn's title teams. No upperclassmen sensations like Jay Williams, Adam Morrison, Stephen Curry, and Kemba Walker. The only upperclassmen entry? Raymond Felton and Sean May, from UNC, who were drafted by the Charlotte Bobcats in Charlotte, NC. Fans don't need college basketball to show them young talent. They can find it just fine on their own.

5. A Sense of Team

Kerr mentions here that the structure of the college game will be able to teach players lessons that will help them at the next level. These lessons, while lacking at other levels of basketball, exist in college.

Both Stephen Curry and Jimmer Fredette honed their offensive skills in at least 3 years of college basketball. However, neither of them learned to play adequate defense, and are both considered among the worst defenders in the NBA today. In both cases, you could argue that Davidson and BYU needed their scoring to win, even if it meant they never played defense. College coaches, like NBA coaches, are paid to win games, not develop players.

During Game 7 of the Lakers-Nuggets series, Kerr himself joked about the rawness of Javale McGee's offensive game, a stark contrast with the complete arsenal of Andrew Bynum. Well, one of those guys (McGee) spent two years in college, and one of them (Bynum) jumped straight from high school. In what way did McGee's 2 extra years of college development help him as opposed to Bynum the high schooler?

6. Mentoring

Kerr states that the league's stars need more professionalism and maturity:

"...it's the maturity and professionalism of veteran stars like Tim Duncan, Ray Allen, Grant Hill, Chris Paul, Steve Nash, Dwyane Wade, and Paul Pierce — guys who spent multiple years in college — setting the tone for everyone else. We need more of them."

 There are almost too many examples of quality leaders that didn't get 2 years of college.

• Everyone who covered the 2008 Celtics swears that Kevin Garnett (0 years of college) created the identity of toughness and intensity that pervades the Celtics, even getting historically non-defense guys like Ray Allen (3 years of college) and Paul Pierce (3 years of college) to buy in.
• The Oklahoma City Thunder has arguably the best young core in the league. The qualities of humility, tireless preparation, and laser-like focus flow from the leader of that team, Kevin Durant (1 year of college). In addition, most observers believe that part of OKC's failure in last season's playoffs stemmed from an inability of Russell Westbrook (2 years of college) to meld his talents with the team concept.
• Derrick Rose (1 year of college) and Kevin Love (1 year of college) have clearly changed the culture of their respective franchises, showing teammates the value of tenacity both on the court and in the offseason.

The argument for raising the NBA age limit seems to be based on anecdotal evidence at best, and no evidence at worst. The NBA as a business is as well-positioned as it's ever been, and the young talent is resonating with the fanbase. The current path of the league doesn't need to be altered, let alone "fixed" by changing this rule. As for other reasons for potentially changing the rule, I think that Commissioner Stern said it perfectly years ago:

"it's for [prospective players] and their parents to make the decision rather than all of us sanctimoniously and piously making these judgments."

Clippers Grizzlies Summary



Best Player: Rudy Gay (Individual +16). Last year, I sympathized with Rudy during Memphis' playoff run. It seemed like anything short of 1+ series wins this year would be deemed a failure, and he'd be the easy fall guy. "Rudy can't figure out how to play with Z-Bo and Gasol," etc... and look what happened. Well, here's a few other theories about what went wrong: 1) Darrell Arthur's injury left Memphis no reliable frontcourt depth. 2) The Vasquez trade left no reliable backup PG, and the 2nd unit offense fell apart. 3) Memphis had a better 1st round matchup last year. None of this softens the blow of losing, but stay the course, Memphis: with a healthy Z-Bo and Arthur, and a backup PG, the contender window is open next year.

Worst Player / Least Valuable Player: Caron Butler (Individual -22, Net -21). Caron probably could've bowed out with no shame or guilt given his injury, and he didn't. So he'll hear nothing from me. Way to tough it out.

Most Valuable Player: Nick Young (Net +17). Every once in a while (read: every time I write a summary), I wonder if this way of looking at series makes any sense at all. Nick Young as series MVP validates it for me. In a few weeks (probably) or years (definitely), the world will look back on this series as further proof of Chris Paul's greatness, or our first collective look at postseason Blake Griffin. But Nick Young loomed just as large. Given his professional resume before this series, we should probably wait a year to decide if he's truly turned a corner as a player. But, no matter what happens, Nick Young played arguably the biggest part in one of the greatest NBA playoff comebacks ever.

Jerome James Award: DeAndre Jordan. I enjoy the DeAndre Jordan career arc. College basketball talking heads trashed him for leaving early and getting drafted in the 2nd round. So he responded by working into a serviceable defensive center with some serious upside potential in 2 short years. While his 2nd contract seemed a little steep, a "poor man's Tyson Chandler" was worth it. Well, for one round, it definitely wasn't. Versus his regular season numbers, Jordan gave the Clippers 7 fewer minutes per game, 4 fewer points, 4 fewer rebounds, and very little "Chandler-lite" defensive impact. Having said all that, he's about to face the Spurs, and the league's best finisher at PG in Tony Parker, so all this could change in a few games.

Lakers Nuggets Summary



Best Player / Most Valuable Player: Ty Lawson (Individual +22, Net +20). And the decade-long tradition of Lakers teams giving up big series to quick point guards continues. Lawson's end-to-end quickness is amazing to watch, but this series revealed that a reliable 3 pointer is probably all that stands between Lawson and All-Star level play.

Worst Player: Steve Blake (Individual -17). Steve Blake's shooting in Games 4 and 7 probably won the Lakers series, right? Then why is is plus/minus so bad? Probably because of the minutes he logged playing shooting guard with the 2nd unit, and getting torched by Andre Miller. Lucky for him, World Peace arrived just in time to take this defensive assignment off his hands. This is extremely important for the Lakers, because waiting in the next round is James Harden, who will probably prove a tougher cover.

Least Valuable Player: Danilo Gallinari (Net -18). Aside from Game 6, Gallinari's plus/minus numbers were just terrible. It's hard to figure this one out, because with World Peace out, there was no theoretical matchup to keep this guy in check other an ailing, aging, shorter Bryant. As a big Gallinari fan, his career ceiling may have shifted from poor man's #1/quality #2 to #2/#3 with this series.

Jerome James Award: Kenneth Faried. Yeah, he averaged a double-double in the series. Yeah, he's got an awesome nickname. And yeah, he's one half of my regular season highlight of the year. At the same time, let's pump the brakes on the Manimal love-fest. He clearly has a place in the league as a backup energy guy, rebounder. He's probably great from a chemistry perspective as the 7th or 8th guy on a team. But unless he's the second coming of Charles Barkley, Game 7 showed everyone the limit of his game: against engaged, legitimate NBA size, he will have trouble on both ends of the floor. And that in no way keeps him from being my new favorite Denver Nugget.

Celtics Hawks Summary



Best Player / Most Valuable Player: Kevin Garnett (Individual +58, Net +36). Given the general lack of true centers in the NBA, moving Garnett to the 5 has worked out really well. There just aren't many centers in the league that he'd have trouble guarding (Howard, Bynum, maybe Marc Gasol), and he may not see any of them the rest of the way. Meanwhile, the defense overall doesn't suffer, and the lineup options become way more varied. This concludes the section where I give the Celtics credit for anything.

Worst Player: Marvin Williams (Individual -9). What is there to say? For a 6-8 small forward with no reasonable defender across from him (in terms of height or athleticism), he has officially descended from "maybe a change of scenery will unleash his real talent" to "oh yeah, I forgot he existed."

Least Valuable Player: Brandon Bass (Net -23). A truly confusing outcome, to say the least. Four Celtics played 93% of the minutes in this series for the bigs. And while Garnett really produced, the other three (Bass, Stiemsma, Hollins) not only couldn't keep up, two of them were really negative contributors. Either the other bigs simply gave up a big run every time Garnett sat down, or Boston played a really small lineup to great success. Either way, a team with legit size could present a large problem down the road... if it existed.

Reverse Jerome James Award: Josh Smith. Sometimes it's hard to figure out what isn't Josh Smith's fault when it comes to the Hawks. Maybe he's the secret GM that picked Marvin over CP3 and Deron, and I'm the only one who doesn't know that. Regardless, despite his forgettable last shot of the season, he had a pretty good series. In terms of net plus/minus, his hobbled production was the same as Al Horford, who can do absolutely no wrong (apparently nobody saw those last two free throws). I'm not saying J-Smoove is a perfect player, but maybe like Horford, his true talents might be better enjoyed by everyone if he could get away from the Hawks.

76ers Bulls Summary

Best Player / Most Valuable Player: Andre Iguodala (Individual +22, Net +13). It's been a personal belief that a team with Andre Iguodala as its #2 guy could easily win a title. Outstanding defense, great passer to the point of still being under-rated, great going to the basket and in transition, and a decent resume as a part time closer (Game 1, 2009 1st round against Orlando before Game 6). The problem is, his supporters say that's selling him short, and his detractors say he's overpaid. Well, guess what? The NBA has a very finite supply of true alpha dogs (Lebron, Dirk, Kobe, Wade, Dwight, CP3, Durant), and none of them can win it alone. Plus, the #2 guy on the last few title teams (Tyson Chandler, Pau Gasol, Kevin Garnett) were miscast as #1's and had pretty hefty contracts.

Worst Player: Luol Deng (Individual -9). Played a ton of minutes through some seriously painful injuries, so I'm not taking any shots at him. An understated priority in the offseason for Chicago is getting Deng healthy and finding someone to spell him at SF for the regular season. He can't keep averaging 39 minutes a game in the regular season with all Thibs asks him to do.

Least Valuable Player: Evan Turner (Net -9). Not sure if Doug Collins lucked into this or not, but Evan Turner's point guard-ish game is the perfect compliment to Jrue Holiday's 2 guard-ish game. Probably shouldn't have taken 68 games to figure it out, but hey, better late than never.

Jerome James Award: Richard Hamilton / Carlos Boozer. It's not rocket science to heap blame on Boozer's shoe-polished head for the team's performance. But there's very little heading in Rip's direction. Look at their scoring numbers in the regular season and in the last 5 games of the series, post-Rose injury:

Richard Hamilton		FGA	FTA	Shots	PPS	PPG
Regular Season		11.1	1.3	12.4	0.94	11.6
Last 5 Games		12.6	3.2	15.8	0.75	11.8
Change		1.5	1.9	3.4	-0.19	0.2
Carlos Boozer		FGA	FTA	Shots	PPS	PPG
Regular Season		12.8	2.1	14.9	1.01	15.0
Last 5 Games		16.4	1.2	17.6	0.82	14.4
Change		3.6	-0.9	2.7	-0.19	-0.6

Both guys started scoring the ball at a much worse clip. Now, granted, Boozer has the bigger contract, but which one of these guys has more postseason experience? Hamilton. Which one has been to the NBA Finals twice, winning a title once? Hamilton. He's definitely not the guy he was 7 years ago, but Andre Miller isn't either, and he's finding a way to make an impact for the Nuggets. I think the whole series can be thrown out from a Bulls fan's perspective, except for one thing: Hamilton was brought in, in part, for the value he'd bring when the playoffs got tough. At least for these 5 games, that's not what he brought.