Bismack Biyombo was a prospect Rich Cho had strong feelings about dating back to his Portland days. The trade-up in the 2011 draft to take him (Detroit was reportedly poised to select him at #8) only reinforced the enthusiasm for him as a player. His physical attributes are so rare, and his relative lack of development rarer still, that a comparable group of players doesn't really jump out. But, there are two recent NBA players that may offer the right context for his play last season: Serge Ibaka and Derrick Favors.
(A big pre-emptive shout-out to www.hoopdata.com, which appears to be some kind of basketball nerd Xanadu. The data cited below comes from their fantastic site.)
Rebounding and Defense
While the total rebound numbers look pretty good, it's better to look at rebound rate to assess the quality of that number. Biyombo's defensive rebound rate is comparable to Favors and Ibaka, but his offensive rebound rate is significantly lower than his peers, and makes his total rebound rate the worst of the three. This is a surprising result given Biyombo's overall motor and intensity, and hopefully improves immediately in his 2nd season.
As for blocks, they are not a singular assessment of a player's defensive ability, but they are a big part of what Biyombo brings to the table. It's encouraging to see that he blocked shots more frequently (and fouled less frequently) than the others. As the more subtle parts of his defensive game develop (rotations, pick-and-roll responsibilities, post defense), his potential as a game-changing defender will become more evident.
Scoring The Ball
As much as people like to compare Biyombo to Ibaka, the comparison breaks down here. The high at-the-rim field goal percentages are nice, but largely expected given the caliber of athletes in this group. However, Biyombo's deficiencies to Ibaka in field goal percentage from 3-9 feet (23%) and 10-15 feet (30%) highlight the work ahead in terms of developing consistent low post offense, touch shots in the paint, and perhaps a face-up jumper. Admittedly, the stat comparisons aren't perfect given the context: Bismack played on the worst team in NBA history, while Ibaka was the 4th or 5th option on a playoff team featuring two All-Stars and the league's leading scorer. Still, it's naive to think there isn't a long way to go here.
Derrick Favors' inclusion is probably important at this point. He played in some similarly dysfunctional contexts as a rookie, and has a great work ethic, loads of athletic ability, and the benefit of youth to explain his skill level. However, it's hard to see an immediate jump from Year 1 to Year 2:
Now, it's debatable whether the biggest jump for players happens in Year 2 or Year 3. There is some level of improvement expected, and it might make sense to monitor his play going forward, as a potential signpost for Biyombo's development.
Verdict
Bismack's rookie year provided some impressive glimpses into the player he could be one day, from a double-double against Dwight Howard to securing one of the seven Bobcats wins last year. His age and commitment to the game increase the likelihood that he'll harness his impressive physical gifts. But, as it stands today, his limited offensive ability doesn't allow a valid comparison to Serge Ibaka. And it's hard to find an example of a player whose offensive repertoire started at this level and blossomed into league-average or better. Unless something remarkable happens during this season, I suspect this debate will be re-kindled in about a year's time.
No comments:
Post a Comment