Friday, December 27, 2013

SportVU Data: Identifying the League's Best... Drivers

With the release of SportVU camera tracking data to the general public via NBA.com, there's a whole new world of information available to try and figure out what's happening on an NBA court, and who's doing it well (or poorly). Really, an ideal application should be to identify the best players filling certain roles on a team, because good role players can swing a playoff series. While understanding all this data has to be in its infant stages, here's a quick look at a few things that seem useful right off the bat. The data is pulled from here, and some summary rules for how I cut the stats are included at the bottom of each post.



In today's NBA, the ability to create a good shot out of nothing has value. Similarly, players that effectively drive to the rim can warp a defense and, if done well, produce points for himself and his team in an efficient way. Here's a look, through the season to date, at some of the most prolific (and efficient) drivers to the hoop. They're identified by how many points a player produces per drive, for himself and for his team.


A few thoughts on the players listed above:
  • While they may not be getting a lot of the All-Star fan vote at this point, hopefully coaches have noticed Ty Lawson and Jeff Teague. They're driving to the rim a lot, and producing points efficiently for their teams, primarily via shots for their teammates. Given the offensive burdens that both guys carry, that should merit consideration.
  • Patrick Beverley brings other things to the table (notably, on-ball defense) better than Jeremy Lin. But, as a driver to the rim, Lin has been much more efficient (1.15 points per drive) than Beverley (0.99). Now, whether the Houston offense is designed for two guys to drive the ball, with Dwight Howard inside, remains to be seen. 
  • I'm not sure whether Tyreke Evans and Jrue Holiday being on this list is a testament to their individual talents blossoming in New Orleans, or the power of Ryan Anderson's otherworldly outside shooting, or both. I haven't watched enough Pelicans basketball to guess, so I won't.
  • Isaiah Thomas is probably someone I should be watching a lot more of. How he manages to produce just some of his offensive numbers, given everything that swirls around him in Sacramento, plus his height, plus his "Mr. Irrelevant" draft status, seems like a great feel-good story.
Eligibility Rules:
 - Top 100 drives per game
 - Must have produced at least 1.15 team points per drive (average for the group)
 - Ranked by drives per minute



Saturday, December 14, 2013

SportVU Data: Identifying the League's Best... Rim Protectors

With the release of SportVU camera tracking data to the general public via NBA.com, there's a whole new world of information available to try and figure out what's happening on an NBA court, and who's doing it well (or poorly). Really, an ideal application should be to identify the best players filling certain roles on a team, because good role players can swing a playoff series. While understanding all this data has to be in its infant stages, here's a quick look at a few things that seem useful right off the bat. The data is pulled from here, and some summary rules for how I cut the stats are included at the bottom of each post.



In today's NBA, the two most efficient shots tend to be corner three's and attempts at the rim. In fact, over the last five years, NBA players shoot an average of around 60% on attempts at the rim. Based on that, players that can lower opponent's success at that shot can be game-changers. Here are standouts at defending the rim so far this season.

Chris Kaman, Lakers (opponents shooting 36.4% on 5.9 attempts in 16.9 minutes)
Robin Lopez, Blazers (opponents shooting 44.4% on 10.6 attempts in 30.8 minutes)
Roy Hibbert, Pacers (opponents shooting 40.5% on 9.6 attempts in 31.1 minutes)
Vitor Faverani, Celtics (opponents shooting 44.8% on 4.6 attempts in 15.1 minutes)
Andrew Bogut, Warriors (opponents shooting 45.9% on 8.3 attempts in 28 minutes)
Brook Lopez, Nets (opponents shooting 39.7% on 9.1 attempts in 30.7 minutes)
Omer Asik, Rockets (opponents shooting 43.2% on 5.2 attempts in 18.3 minutes)
Tim Duncan, Spurs (opponents shooting 43.4% on 7.6 attempts in 27.9 minutes)
Serge Ibaka, Thunder (opponents shooting 45.3% on 9.1 attempts in 33.8 minutes)
Ekpe Udoh, Bucks (opponents shooting 45.2% on 5.8 attempts in 22.4 minutes)

A few things that jump out at me about this list.
  • How about the Lopez brothers, and I do mean both of them. Robin Lopez is part of a really fun-to-watch Blazers team, and his play allowing LaMarcus Aldridge to slide over to power forward is an under-rated reason why. Brook has always been chided for his lack of rebounding, but who knew he was this active (and effective) challenging shots at the rim?
  • It seems like people are really harping on Omer Asik after whatever happened the last few weeks in Houston, as though it negatively affects his prospects as a player. Well, he's still bringing his bread and butter to the table this season, and these kinds of contributions matter a lot in the playoffs.
  • He didn't make the list, but in case you're curious, Andre Drummond's overall blocks are down this year, but he's holding opponents to 45.7% at the rim on 7.8 attempts. I could've eliminated guys like Kaman and Faverani for low minutes totals, but then again, that's what everyone said about Drummond last year.
Rim Protector Eligibility Rules:
 - Top 100 players in opponent field goal attempts at the rim
 - Played more than 13 games
 - Played more than 15 minutes per game
 - Allow opponents to shoot 46% or less

Sunday, December 8, 2013

SportVU Data: Identifying the League's Best... Catch and Shoot Players

With the release of SportVU camera tracking data to the general public via NBA.com, there's a whole new world of information available to try and figure out what's happening on an NBA court, and who's doing it well (or poorly). Really, an ideal application should be to identify the best players filling certain roles on a team, because good role players can swing a playoff series. While understanding all this data has to be in its infant stages, here's a quick look at a few things that seem useful right off the bat. The data is pulled from here, and some summary rules for how I cut the stats are included at the bottom of each post.

CATCH AND SHOOT: THREES



In a league with increasingly zone-based defensive principles, spacing is at a premium. As a result, so are players that stretch a defense with the threat of catching and shooting the ball from deep. Through the season to date, the following players stand out in executing this role.

Gerald Green, Suns (5.6 attempts per game in 27.8 minutes, 38.4%) 
Tim Hardaway Jr., Knicks (3.1 attempts per game in 16.1 minutes, 42.3%)
Ryan Anderson, Pelicans (6.6 attempts per game in 35.7 minutes, 51.5%)
Cartier Martin, Hawks (3.4 attempts per game in 19.5 minutes, 40.8%)
Martell Webster, Wizards (5.6 attempts per game in 32.7 minutes, 41.1%)
Channing Frye, Suns (4.3 attempts per game in 26.9 minutes, 41.2%)
Klay Thompson, Warriors (5.9 attempts per game in 37.7 minutes, 47.8%)
JR Smith, Knicks (4.8 attempts per game in 31.1 minutes, 41.3%)
Randy Foye, Nuggets (3.9 attempts per game in 25.6 minutes, 40.5%)
Trevor Ariza, Wizards (5.3 attempts per game in 36.1 minutes, 48.6%)

Looking at that list, a few things jump out. First, I'm surprised that the Knicks and Wizards haven't been better offensive teams to date, since both Wall and Anthony seem to have decent safety valve options on the wing. Second, Ryan Anderson and Klay Thompson are off the charts efficient, to the point where they must warp a defensive scheme whenever they're in a game (or should). Third, if anyone wonders why 38% was the cutoff for this list, it's because I wasn't going to omit Gerald Green, who's shooting more catch and shoot threes per minute than anyone in the league, and hitting a respectable amount of them.

CATCH AND SHOOT: TWOS


The two point catch and shoot specialists are purposely attempting the most inefficient shot in basketball, and attempting to do so at a high level. While it's easy to say that midrange jumpers should never be attempted, at the end of a shot clock, or against a good defense (or both), sometimes a player on the floor has to be able to hit this shot when it's conceded. Through the season to date, the following players stand out in executing this role.

Darrell Arthur, Nuggets (4.1 attempts per game in 18.1 minutes, 46.3%)
Jason Smith, Pelicans (6.2 attempts per game in 28 minutes, 48.4%)
Luis Scola, Pacers (3.3 attempts per game in 18.5 minutes, 54.6%)
LaMarcus Aldridge, Blazers (5.5 attempts per game in 37.1 minutes, 50.9%)
Al Horford, Hawks (4.5 attempts per game in 32.8 minutes, 51.1%)
Andrea Bargnani, Knicks (3.9 attempts per game in 31.2 minutes, 59.0%)
Dirk Nowitzki, Mavericks (4.0 attempts per game in 32.5 minutes, 55.0%)
Serge Ibaka, Thunder (4.1 attempts per game in 34.6 minutes, 46.3%)
David West, Pacers (3.5 attempts per game in 30.4 minutes, 57.1%)
Chris Bosh, Heat (3.1 attempts per game in 28.7 minutes, 45.2%)

A few thoughts here. First, it's interesting how many good teams (Heat, Pacers, Thunder, Blazers) seem to have someone who's very good at hitting these shots. Second, for all the heat he's taken for his entire career, at the very least Andrea Bargnani has been a lethal pick and pop guy this year, as long as he's inside the arc. Finally, is there anything Al Horford can't do? If the Hawks aren't trying to contend this year, and are planning on pulling the plug in February, he has to be the hottest commodity at the trade deadline for a contender (e.g. Clippers, Thunder).

3 Point Catch and Shoot Eligibility Rules:
 - Top 100 in total Catch and Shoot Attempts
 - At least 10 games played
 - Volume Shooters (ranked by attempts per minute)
 - 38+% on attempts

2 Point Catch and Shoot Eligibility Rules:
 - Top 100 in total Catch and Shoot Attempts
 - At least 10 games played
 - Volume Shooters (ranked by attempts per minute)
 - 45+%  on attempts