Fixer-Uppers: The NBA's Longest Rebuild Projects

For every fan that tries to read too deeply into an NBA season less than 20% complete, it's important to maintain perspective. This is particularly important for those teams engaged in the always-dreaded, not-quite-satisfying "rebuilding" process. Despite the incredible success (and expedience) of the Thunder's recent rebuilding process, the timeline/path back to the playoffs is much more challenging for other organizations. In fact, many teams take a longer, more circuitous path back to relevance. How are those teams doing?

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

• Years Since Playoff Berth: 8
• Lottery Picks Since: 8
• Top 5 Picks Since: 8

Rebuild Status: COMPLETE.

 

It wasn't the easiest road in the world, to be sure. There were plenty of squandered high lottery picks (Wesley Johnson, Jonny Flynn, Corey Brewer), and highlight-quality blunders in strategy (NBA youngsters running the Triangle offense? Drafting point guards at #4, #6, and #18 of the same draft?). But today, they have one legitimate All-NBA player (Kevin Love), one arguable All-NBA prospect (Ricky Rubio), and nice complimentary pieces (Pekovic, Budinger, Cunningham, Stiemsma, Ridnour).

Injuries probably deprived them of their playoff berth last year, given that they were over .500 before the Rubio ACL injury. Looking at the 82games.com numbers, last year's Rubio-Love-Pekovic lineups were productive, and Chase Budinger can likely add more than Wesley Johnson did to that combination. Assuming no further bad luck, they'll probably start a run of playoff berths in 2013. David Kahn, congratulations on a job... done.

 SACRAMENTO KINGS

• Years Since Playoff Berth: 7
• Lottery Picks Since: 5
• Top 5 Picks Since: 3

Rebuild Status: NOT THAT CLOSE.

How do these individually talented pieces fit together?  Tyreke Evans put up a 20-5-5 season as a rookie (previous company: MJ, Lebron, Oscar), but management had to let him hit restricted free agency in 2013. Cousins is arguably the most talented young big man in the league, but already has one coach's firing on his hands. Aaron Brooks was a borderline All-Star for Houston, but was more scoring PG than distributor. Now his team needs someone to set other people up, even though his career A:TO numbers don't point to that as his best role.

Is the target lineup Brooks-Fredette-Evans-Robinson-Cousins? Maybe Thomas in for Brooks? Thompson for Robinson? Who knows? Last year, the Cousins-Evans-Fredette lineups weren't particularly productive. This year, only one of their top five lineups is meaningfully positive, despite all those lottery picks. Time will tell if they can make it work, but seven years into the rebuild, the results to date have not been encouraging. If I had to guess, I'd say some of these building blocks may flourish in their next stop, and leave us wondering why they couldn't figure it out in Sacramento.

 GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

• Years Since Playoff Berth: 6
• Lottery Picks Since: 5
• Top 5 Picks Since: 0

Rebuild Status: BARRING INJURY, COMPLETE.

It's been a long five years since the "We Believe" Warriors, but the current roster looks like it could be quite formidable going forward. Of course, that all depends on the health of the two injury-prone building blocks, Andrew Bogut and Steph Curry. When healthy, Andrew Bogut has already been an All-NBA performer, capable of game changing production on offense and defense. However, healthy was a long time ago, hence his availability via trade. Curry has provided good offensive production, and while his individual efficiency may suffer playing without Ellis, this could be his chance to show the full offensive package that everyone dreamed of when he came out of college.

The starting lineup looks potentially good (Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Lee-Bogut): a nice mix of shooting and passing around a traditional low post threat. The bench offers a nice mix of veteran (Jack, Rush, Landry) and young talent (Ezeli, Green, Jenkins). Again, health is the biggest question, and if Bogut can't get healthy, plenty will criticize the swapping of Udoh and Ellis for him. But if it works, this looks to me like a perennial playoff team, with upside still lurking in Thompson and Barnes.

CONCLUSIONS

Looking at these teams, a few things jump out.

• Any fanbase that's working on a three year playoff drought (Bobcats, Cavaliers) probably needs to calm down. It could be worse. A lot worse.
• All-NBA talent generally shows up through the draft. Mostly, through a top 5 or top 10 pick (Love, Rubio, Evans, Cousins, Robinson, Barnes, Curry).
• Major talent acquisition outside of the draft involves taking a big risk, be it health (Bogut in GS, Bynum in Philadelphia, Chandler in NY), character (Randolph in Memphis), or otherwise.