Assessing the Bobcats' Pieces: Kemba Walker (2012-2013)

As the Bobcats continue their rebuilding process, the key to achieving success will be building a roster of players capable of major contributions on a playoff team. As the 2012-2013 season approaches, it's important to take stock of the key players on the team today, and whether they do (or will) fit that bill.

Kemba Walker came to the Bobcats on draft night with a decent amount of fanfare. Coming off a Player of the Year caliber season, and a national championship at UConn, his transition to the NBA as a 21 year old rookie might have seemed easier than other draftees. However, as the worst season in NBA history progressed, questions inevitably surfaced as to whether or not Walker was a key reason for the futility. So, with that in mind, it seems reasonable to compare his rookie season to recent rookie point guards that were 6-1 in height, and see what that says about his future NBA prospects.

Facilitating the Offense

It goes without saying, the Bobcats were one of the worst offenses in NBA history by several metrics. However, it's difficult to point to Walker as the main cause. Kemba Walker's rookie assist per game numbers (4.4) are better than Mike Conley, Rajon Rondo, and Ty Lawson. Not only that, Walker's assist-to-turnover ratio (2.43) is better than those three as well. All three of those guys are at least above-average NBA starters, and even on the worst team in NBA history, Walker fared better than they did as rookies on that front.

Scoring the Ball

As a habit, I continue to look at points per shot (total points versus total FGA and FTA) to measure player efficiency scoring the ball. While Walker's raw points per game appear average, he was an inefficient scorer; only Rondo was worse. How did this happen? Walker was essentially middle of the pack shooting free throws and threes. On two point attempts, however, only Brandon Jennings was less efficient as a rookie.

There are several reasons why a 6-1 (listed) point guard would struggle as a rookie on two point attempts.

• NBA defenders are taller, longer, quicker, and smarter than their college counterparts. Thus, scoring one-on-one is more difficult all over the floor.
• NBA defenses are more sophisticated and focused than other levels. The schemes and rotations are often tailored to make an off-the-dribble creator move the ball or take a contested shot.
• Rookies are perceived to get fewer calls than more experienced players on shot attempts, particularly in the paint and near the rim.

As a rookie transitioning to the NBA, that's a significant amount of challenges to overcome. But, those limitations are the same for everyone in this group, and they all face the same height limitations relative to their peers of prototypical PG size. The question is... will it get better?

Looking at the other five rookies on the list who struggled on two point attempts, the answer seems to be yes. Four out of five (Jennings, Augustin, Rondo, Felton) got better on two point attempts from Year 1 to Year 3. Also, those four also shot a higher number of free throw attempts per game. (The fifth player, Jonny Flynn, had a significant decrease in minutes in Year 3, along with being traded).

Verdict

Kemba Walker's rookie year has not offered much insight into the kind of player he will be in two years. An optimist could look at Rondo's statistical leap as a blueprint (unlikely, since the Bobcats didn't add Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen in the offseason). A pessimist could say that Walker's output singlehandedly keeps the Bobcats from ever making the playoffs (also unlikely, since Brandon Jennings put up comparable efficiency and assist-turnover numbers while leading his team to the playoffs in 2009-2010).

When I look at the other guys on the list, I see three guys (Paul, Rondo, Lawson) whose games will be difficult to emulate. I also see four guys who started for playoff teams (Nelson, Conley, Jennings, Felton) that Walker could equal and possibly surpass. Like every young player, there are anecdotal things that Walker could improve (using the roll man better on pick-and-rolls, running offense earlier in the shot clock). But, as with everything involving the Bobcats, it's going to take a while before we know the answer. I, for one, am still a believer.