How Odd is the Mike Dunlap Hire?

The Charlotte Bobcats have hired Mike Dunlap as their head coach. The decision is surprising for multiple reasons:

• he was not known to be among the initial candidates for the job (a list that included Patrick Ewing, Jerry Sloan, etc.) 
• he was not known to be among the finalists for the job (Brian Shaw, Quin Snyder)
• the majority of NBA fans do not know who he is

Aside from the initial shock factor, there are several gut reactions/reasonable questions running through the mind of Bobcats fans.

Gut Reaction: "This is a crazy hire. He has no experience."
Reasonable Question: "How does Dunlap's experience compare to other recent NBA hires?"

The majority of NBA coaches hired are re-treads, guys who have already been head coaches somewhere. In fact, 19 of the 29 current head coaches in the league had prior experience as head coach of an NBA team. (Incidentally, most coaches get fired because they weren't doing well: Randy Wittman's prior head coaching experience included a 0.32 win pct in over 300 games before getting hired to coach the Wizards).

Nine other NBA head coaches had NBA assistant coach as their best relevant experience. Of those guys, experience ranges from 10+ years (Tom Thibodeau, Larry Drew, Spoelstra), 5-10 years (Monty Williams, Scott Brooks, Gregg Popovich, Tyrone Corbin), and less than five years (Kaleb Canales, Mike Dunlap). Bottom line: Dunlap's NBA experience is on the light end of the spectrum, but he's definitely not the least experienced. That honor has to go to either Canales or Mark Jackson (no previous coaching experience at the college or NBA level).

Gut Reaction: "If we weren't getting a veteran coach, we should hire the big-name young talent."
Reasonable Question: "Were the other coaches better candidates?"

The results here are surprising. Quin Snyder's resume (outside of college) included 3 years as a head coach in the D-League, and one year as an NBA assistant as his most recent job. That job experience is identical to the resume of Sam Vincent prior to his ill-fated hiring as the Bobcats' coach.

Brian Shaw has certainly paid his dues as an assistant, and the pedigree of the Phil Jackson coaching tree (Triangle offense included) is certainly tempting. But he's not the only Jackson assistant coach to look for a head coaching gig. Kurt Rambis was also an assistant under Phil for years, and was hired by Minnesota to bring the Triangle offense to the T-Wolves in 2009. After two years and 32 combined wins, he was fired. And failure is not confined to Jackson disciples. John Kuester was an assistant coach who had paid his dues in the league. After the Cavaliers' 2009 season, he was a hot commodity. But after 2 years coaching the Pistons (29 wins per year), he was fired. The hot young coaching prospect does not always pan out immediately, particularly with young teams short on talent.

Gut Reaction: "The Bobcats knocked themselves way off track with this hire."
Reasonable Question: "Does this hire fit within the Bobcats' rebuilding plan?"

No two rebuilding plans are exactly the same. Indiana re-tooled their roster with savvy trades and nice draft picks in the middle of the 1st round. The Clippers swapped part of their young core for a current superstar. The Thunder tore down and rebuilt around a ludicrously young core, patiently waiting for them to grow.

Regardless of which plan is the Bobcats, the overwhelming likelihood is that if the roster looks like it can win, the coach will turn over before the roster. It happened with Jim O'Brien in Indiana (fired), Mike Dunleavy with the Clippers (fired), Lebron's first head coach (Paul Silas - fired), Derrick Rose's (Vinny Del Negro - fired), Chris Paul's (Byron Scott - fired), Dwight Howard's (Brian Hill - fired), Carmelo Anthony's (Jeff Bzdelik - fired)... Incidentally, most of those coaches were fired within 3 years of their respective superstar's arrival, and prior head coaching experience didn't save their jobs.

At the end of the day, here are the facts: Mike Dunlap has been hired for 2 years, with an option for a 3rd. He is light on experience relative to other hired NBA coaches. Regardless of his resume, no one really knows how he's going to do as a head coach, for better or worse. And, in all honesty, who gets added to this roster is probably twice as important as who's coaching them at this point. Bobcats fans shouldn't be wondering if this is the coach that can win with the Bobcats. The real question to think about: 2 years from now, will any coach be able to win with the Bobcats' roster?