Doc Rivers Is Smart to Jump Ship

Over the last few days, rumors have swirled that the Clippers are working to complete a trade that would bring over Kevin Garnett from the Celtics. As a consequence of that deal, the Celtics would be willing to let Doc Rivers out of his current contract, and let him leave to coach the Clippers. There are a few reasons why Doc is probably making a good move for himself:

REASON 1. RIVERS' PERCEPTION EXCEEDS HIS PRODUCTION.

Looking at the regular season winning percentage of last year's active NBA coaches, a few things can be observed. First, the most common thread linking coaches with .600 career winning percentages (52+ wins per season) appears to be the presence of a consensus All-NBA talent on the roster. Be it Popovich (Duncan / Parker), Thibodeau (Rose), Spoelstra (James / Wade), or Brooks (Durant / Westbrook), it's hard to win big consistently without big talent in its prime. Rivers (.554 win pct) is not immune to this phenomenon. With the current Celtics roster, it's arguable that Rivers won't have a single All-NBA player on his roster next year.

The obvious counter-argument is that, of all the highlighted coaches, only four have rings, and Rivers is one of them. Doesn't that count for something?

REASON 2. RIVERS' RECORD IS LARGELY MEDIOCRE WITHOUT THE BIG 3.

For GM's making a coaching hire, the most impressive coaches seem to be the ones that create success in a variety of situations. Coaches like George Karl and Rick Adelman have led teams to play .600 ball in a variety of circumstances. Rivers does not boast the same resume. Pick from the following hypothetical coaches to run a team:

• 876 regular season games, .506 winning pct, 5 playoff berths (with 2 teams), conference semis (2x)
• 614 regular season games, .454 winning pct, 4 playoff berths (1 team), conference semis (3x)
• 585 regular season games, .467 winning pct, 4 playoff berths (2 teams), 1st round exit (4x)

Both Scott Skiles and Lawrence Frank appear to have better results than Doc Rivers' pre-Big 3 resume, and both those coaches are viewed with far less reverence than Rivers as a potential hire. And for those that assume all title-winning coaches have a similar drop off, take a look at Rick Carlisle's record before arriving in Dallas:

• 492 regular season games, .571 winning pct, 5 playoff berths (2 teams), conference finals (2x) 

Based on his coaching record, Carlisle has demonstrated the ability to succeed in three different situations. Doc Rivers had never won a playoff series as a coach before the arrival of Garnett and Ray Allen in Boston.

REASON 3. NBA COACHES HAVE AN INCREASINGLY SHORT SHELF LIFE.

Making the playoffs as an NBA coach does nothing to insure job security from one year to the next. The Nuggets, Clippers, Hawks, Nets, and Grizzlies are all looking for new coaches after making the playoffs, and it can be argued that only two of those teams failed to meet expectations. This goes beyond "what have you done or me lately?," and into some previously unknown criteria for doing a job well enough to keep it.

Not only that, but several recent coaching hires (here and here and here) indicate that teams are certainly entertaining lower levels of experience when evaluating hires relative to the usual re-tread choices. It's more than likely that Rivers' luster as a coach would fade as the Celtics descend into a rebuild / re-load phase, and his appeal as a hire could be at its peak for the foreseeable future.

CONCLUSION

For the record, there's nothing wrong with Doc Rivers wanting to leave Boston for a better professional opportunity. Same for KG. Professional sports are unlike most other careers, in that opportunities for success can be rare and fleeting. However, if there are bones to pick, here they are. 

• Kevin Garnett planned to retire a Celtic four months ago. He was a little upset when Ray Allen decided to bail on the Celtics and chase a title somewhere else. The only way for KG to leave the Celtics in the next two seasons is if he chooses to, but he's apparently leaving the Celtics, and his teammates, to chase a title somewhere else.
• Doc Rivers wondered aloud why he would ever leave when he signed his five year contract two years ago. He's likely the highest paid coach in the NBA. He's won a title with this organization, and his front office has repeatedly demonstrated a willingness to work with him. Aside from the current roster, what justifies leaving Boston other than chasing the nearest potential championship?  

Both these guys are still under contract with the Celtics, and for whatever their reasons, they're leaving that organization for the prospect of getting a ring with a "better" organization. I'm probably missing something, but this whole thing seems like it's one ten minute interview away from something we've all seen, and collectively derided, before.