The NBA's Best Scorer (no, it's not Kevin Durant)

Now that the 2010-2011 season is officially wrapped up, there's a full season of data to decide a fairly contentious argument: who's the best scorer in the NBA? Now, this is not an argument about who's the best clutch scorer, who's the most valuable to his team's offense, etc. This is an attempt to see who was the best pure scorer in the NBA this past season.

A few ground rules:
1) This is not a question of points per game. This is a question of how well a player scores when including all three types of shots: free throws, 2's, and 3's. In this analysis, all three shots are boiled down to a total "points per shot" metric (PPS) that, multiplied by total shots taken, equals points per game.

2) Sample size matters - if a player played 27 games with his current team because he got traded, he's out. 41 games minimum.

3) Only high quantity chuckers count. The minimum cutoff was 18 attempts per game, because at that level, your team is asking you to score every game, and the other team knows you're trying to score every game.

Under that criteria, there were 40 players in the league that fit the bill. And, for reference, all players in the league averaging 10+ points a game averaged 0.79 points per free throw attempt, 0.98 points per 2 point attempt, 1.09 points per 3 point attempt, and 0.95 points per shot overall. So, here's a look at the best scorers from 2010-2011...

		POINTS PER SHOT				ATTEMPTS PER GAME				POINTS PER GAME
		0.789	0.984	1.088	0.953
Rank	Player	FT	2P	3P	TOT	FT	2P	3P	TOTAL	FT	2P	3P	TOT
1	Dirk Nowitzki	0.892	1.076	1.179	1.036	6.07	13.85	2.30	22.22	5.41	14.90	2.71	23.03
2	Paul Pierce	0.860	1.094	1.121	1.028	5.61	9.05	3.71	18.38	4.83	9.90	4.16	18.89
3	Pau Gasol	0.823	1.060	1.000	0.994	5.24	13.62	0.04	18.90	4.32	14.44	0.04	18.79
4	LeBron James	0.759	1.104	0.989	0.983	8.39	15.27	3.53	27.19	6.37	16.86	3.49	26.72
5	Kevin Durant	0.880	1.007	1.051	0.977	8.65	14.41	5.31	28.37	7.62	14.51	5.58	27.71
6	Kevin Martin	0.888	0.933	1.150	0.969	8.36	10.10	5.74	24.20	7.43	9.43	6.60	23.45
7	Kevin Love	0.850	0.967	1.251	0.968	6.84	11.16	2.89	20.89	5.81	10.79	3.62	20.22
8	David West	0.807	1.020	0.667	0.967	4.67	14.73	0.13	19.53	3.77	15.03	0.09	18.89
9	Rudy Gay	0.805	0.971	1.188	0.963	4.46	13.43	2.67	20.56	3.59	13.04	3.17	19.80
10	Eric Gordon	0.825	0.976	1.093	0.961	6.21	11.75	5.20	23.16	5.13	11.46	5.68	22.27
11	Luol Deng	0.753	1.012	1.036	0.959	4.10	10.02	4.06	18.18	3.09	10.15	4.21	17.44
12	Nick Young	0.816	0.925	1.162	0.959	3.56	10.38	4.23	18.17	2.91	9.59	4.92	17.42
13	Dwyane Wade	0.758	1.068	0.917	0.953	8.58	15.50	2.71	26.79	6.50	16.55	2.49	25.54
14	Luis Scola	0.738	1.011	0.000	0.953	3.92	15.22	0.04	19.18	2.89	15.38	0.00	18.27
15	LaMarcus Aldridge	0.791	1.010	0.522	0.952	5.48	17.19	0.28	22.95	4.33	17.36	0.15	21.84
16	Al Jefferson	0.761	0.992	0.000	0.950	3.52	16.09	0.00	19.61	2.68	15.95	0.00	18.63
17	Zach Randolph	0.758	1.031	0.558	0.949	5.28	15.27	0.57	21.12	4.00	15.73	0.32	20.05
18	Carlos Boozer	0.701	1.020	0.000	0.949	4.14	14.32	0.00	18.46	2.90	14.61	0.00	17.51
19	Amar'e Stoudemire	0.792	1.006	1.304	0.948	7.65	18.71	0.29	26.65	6.06	18.82	0.38	25.27
20	Monta Ellis	0.789	0.956	1.084	0.945	5.39	15.40	4.74	25.53	4.25	14.73	5.14	24.11
21	Deron Williams	0.845	0.982	0.994	0.944	6.34	10.12	4.88	21.34	5.35	9.94	4.85	20.14
22	Chris Bosh	0.815	1.005	0.720	0.942	6.12	13.39	0.32	19.83	4.99	13.45	0.23	18.68
23	Derrick Rose	0.858	0.962	0.997	0.941	6.85	14.96	4.75	26.57	5.88	14.40	4.74	25.01
24	Danny Granger	0.848	0.886	1.157	0.940	5.90	10.80	5.15	21.85	5.00	9.57	5.96	20.53
25	Kobe Bryant	0.828	0.974	0.969	0.935	7.11	15.65	4.34	27.10	5.89	15.24	4.21	25.34
26	Carmelo Anthony	0.838	0.941	1.135	0.935	7.86	16.26	3.26	27.38	6.58	15.30	3.70	25.58
27	Joe Johnson	0.802	0.987	0.890	0.934	3.38	11.96	4.17	19.50	2.71	11.81	3.71	18.22
28	Brook Lopez	0.787	0.985	0.000	0.930	5.96	15.95	0.01	21.93	4.70	15.71	0.00	20.40
29	Andrea Bargnani	0.820	0.943	1.036	0.928	5.30	14.39	3.38	23.08	4.35	13.58	3.50	21.42
30	Michael Beasley	0.753	0.926	1.098	0.912	3.99	14.82	2.25	21.05	3.00	13.73	2.47	19.19
31	Dwight Howard	0.596	1.194	0.000	0.910	11.74	13.29	0.09	25.13	7.00	15.87	0.00	22.87
32	Antawn Jamison	0.731	0.923	1.038	0.910	4.18	10.95	4.70	19.82	3.05	10.11	4.88	18.04
33	Stephen Jackson	0.816	0.897	1.011	0.909	4.55	10.45	5.36	20.36	3.72	9.37	5.42	18.51
34	DeMar DeRozan	0.813	0.969	0.288	0.906	4.90	13.44	0.63	18.98	3.99	13.02	0.18	17.20
35	Blake Griffin	0.642	1.019	0.875	0.891	8.48	16.49	0.29	25.26	5.44	16.80	0.26	22.50
36	Russell Westbrook	0.842	0.901	0.990	0.887	7.70	15.70	1.26	24.65	6.48	14.15	1.24	21.87
37	Brandon Jennings	0.809	0.844	0.970	0.869	3.90	9.89	4.81	18.60	3.16	8.35	4.67	16.17
38	Andray Blatche	0.777	0.899	0.667	0.868	4.42	14.67	0.28	19.38	3.44	13.19	0.19	16.81
39	Tyreke Evans	0.771	0.864	0.872	0.844	4.67	13.77	2.60	21.04	3.60	11.89	2.26	17.75
40	John Wall	0.766	0.849	0.887	0.829	5.70	12.42	1.67	19.78	4.36	10.55	1.48	16.39

First, a little credit where credit is due:

• Dirk (1.04 PPS, #1): frighteningly efficient from every conceivable shot on the floor, and tops the list despite shooting far fewer 3's than I would have thought. It's too bad that Dallas couldn't have given him a real shot at a title this year by trading at the deadline for a hard-nosed 3 (I doubt the Mavs back down from the Lakers a few weeks ago with Stephen Jackson on their team).
• Paul Pierce (1.03 PPS, #2): probably the most impressive entry on the list... being shorter, slower, and less explosive than virtually every small forward he matched up with, his efficiency, particularly on 2's, is hard to believe. Thankfully, the Celtics willingly traded its identity away, and none of us have to endure another wheelchair game in the Finals. As if a Rondo/Jeff Green/Glen Davis core has any hope of contending in 3 years without a major trade. Hope there are ex-Celtic GM's around in 2014.
• Pau Gasol (0.99 PPS, #3): his production despite the complete lack of 3 point attempts underscores the fact that, in crunch time, Kobe is ignoring a truly phenomenal scorer when he goes into hero mode.
• Kevin Love (0.97 PPS, #7): He shoots more 3's than any 4/5 on the list, but when you apparently shoot the long ball like Steph Curry, I guess you're doing the right thing. Unless you defend like Steph Curry too, in which case, well...

The bottom of this list, however, is more interesting:

• Dwight Howard (0.91 PPS, #31): I'm probably as big a fan as anyone (my MVP choice), but if Derrick Rose can come back from the summer with a 3 pointer, Dwight HAS to come back hitting free throws next fall. If he was just an average free throw shooter, that's almost 2 extra points per game, and a vastly more effective clutch time offense for the Magic. By the way, Derrick Rose developing a respectable outside shot has ruined every talented star's excuse for wasted summers... "what, you can't learn to do something new? I mean, Derrick did it."
• Blake Griffin (0.89 PPS, #35): A better "rookie" season than anyone could have reasonably expected, but the bar is now higher as a result for Year 2. Phenomenal dunker, but why is he less efficient on 2's than supposed jump shooter Lamarcus Aldridge? Also, 8.5 free throws a game is a number that's only going up from here, so free throw percentage needs to move up significantly.
• Russell Westbrook (0.89 PPS, #36): considering his reputation as primarily a transition player and at the rim finisher, how did he fare so poorly on 2 point attempts?

Before I get accused of omitting the obvious, when adding in the work of players traded in midseason, I have one expected footnote, and one less obvious:

• Carmelo Anthony, the New York Knick version, would have rated as the #5 scorer on the list (0.982 PPS)... another impressive percentage for 2's, but given his post up abilities relative to, say, Paul Pierce, his efficiency is far less surprising.
• Marcus Thornton, a 2nd year, 2nd round pick who was traded from New Orleans to Sacramento midseason for a reported allergic reaction to playing defense, scored at a whopping 0.971 PPS, on 21 shots per game, with the Kings. If all players regardless of games played were included, he'd have the #7 mark, topped only by Dirk, Pierce, Gasol, Lebron, Carmelo NYK, and Durant. Seems fluky, but during his rookie year in New Orleans, he scored at a 0.969 PPS rate on 14.5 shots per game. An increase in shots with no drop-off in efficiency? Even while going from playing next to Chris Paul/Darren Collison to Beno Udrih/Tyreke Evans? Wow. Coming off a $760k salary, and with the Kings in dire financial straits (and married to Tyreke Evans), any team with cap room and a need to add scoring and floor spacing would be crazy not to offer Marcus a 3 year, $10mm deal. Or, put another way... THE CHARLOTTE BOBCATS WOULD BE CRAZY NOT TO OFFER HIM A 3 YR, $10MM DEAL.

In sum, as you spend the next 2-4 weeks being bombarded with people saying how incredible a scorer Kevin Durant is, remember... he's good, but he's not the best. Not this year. That title goes to Dirk.

(Also: before the playoffs officially start, my pick: the Heat. We will never know what happened in Game 5 of the Cleveland-Boston series last year, but Lebron was a playoff juggernaut before that game. Now, he's madder, with Wade as the closer? Despite hopes that this would be the last non-Heat title for the next few years, we may not be that lucky.)