2012 Edition
With the NCAA tournament concluded, it's time to look at the NBA Draft's looming early entry decisions. For the kids involved, it's hardly an easy decision to make, and it's simply not an exact science.
The general logic is: if a player is viewed as a consensus lottery pick, it's better to go than stay. On the one hand, players can go back to school, work on their games, and improve their draft stock. Or, in a draft process judged on potential, they could fail to meet the usually ridiculous expectations set out for them, and lose some of the allure from their breakout year.
In 2011, four players chose to go back to school: Harrison Barnes, Jared Sullinger, Perry Jones, and Terrence Jones. I would argue that all four produced at similar levels in their extra season of college, but were picked apart for not expanding their games more. Three out of the four (excluding Barnes) paid a steep price in terms of draft potential.
In 2012, James McAdoo, Tony Mitchell, and Cody Zeller chose to go back to school, and despite not playing worse than they did as freshman, they didn't improve enough to satisfy some pretty lofty expectations, and have lost a little luster with regard to draft stock. It's not a fair world, but it is the world that these kids have to navigate. Here's a look at the perception of this year's prospects, based on mock drafts at Draftexpress and NBADraft.net, respectively.
NEED TO GO NOW (CONSENSUS 1ST ROUNDERS)
The shaded players are consensus lottery picks, and should definitely go. The others are consensus 1st rounders at this point.
At the beginning of the college basketball season, I mentioned that a few guys tend to appear out of nowhere. What an understatement. Guys like Marcus Smart and Victor Oladipo weren't even on the 1st round radar at the beginning of the season, and now both appear to be a high to mid lottery locks. As mentioned earlier, Tony Mitchell and James McAdoo have taken quite a hit, justified or not. And the Kentucky kids have fallen out of favor as well. Things can change quickly, so for players on this list, I'd think long and hard about the shot at a 1st round, guaranteed contract.
NEED TO THINK ABOUT IT (DEBATABLE 1ST ROUNDERS)
All these guys have had some time in the sun over the course of the season, being hailed as 1st round talents. I think that key determinants for these guys should include (in some order): development potential over the summer, likely team exposure (aka tournament success) relative to this past season, and progress towards a degree. The first one applies to the guys like Goodwin and Austin. The second applies to the Michigan trio and Shane Larkin. The third applies to juniors that may be headed for late 1st / early 2nd status anyway, but could finish their degree if they stay one more year.
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