In the NBA, there is no shortage of teams that feel like they may be one player away from perennial championship contention, one last cog away from a title-winning machine. For some teams (Knicks, Nets, Clippers), targets are major players. For others (Bulls, Thunder, Hawks, Grizzlies, Heat, Lakers, Spurs), the missing piece may be a more low key, subtle addition. While there's probably never going to be an easy way to assess a free agent's ability to develop individually, fit into a team's concept, fit into a team's locker room, etc., a common theme has emerged over the past few years: try not to over-pay for the role player that just won a ring. Not only is it unlikely he can play the way he did last spring for your new team, he may not be able to play that way again for anybody. Take a look at some notable role players from the last 3 NBA champions.
2008: James Posey (Celtics to Hornets)
Cog Factor: Played both small forward and power forward for the Celtics (giving the team added versatility to go big or small in crunch time), hit clutch threes, and played defense with the same intensity that became the hallmark of that team.
Red Flag We Should've Seen Then: During the '08 playoffs, shot 40% from three, a feat he had only accomplished once in 9 seasons of work. Also, he was 31 years old at the end of that season.
Post-Title Career: Signed with New Orleans, lowered his outside shooting accuracy in each successive year (32% last season), and is a potential amnesty candidate in the final year of his deal with the Indiana Pacers.
2009: Trevor Ariza (Lakers to Rockets)
Cog Factor: Played shooting guard and small forward, taking on opponents' most dangerous wing scorers on defense, shot 48% from three and sealed wins in the conference finals.
Red Flag We Should've Seen Then: Prior to the 2009 playoffs, Ariza's career high in 3 point percentage was 32%. Also, he was on his third team in five NBA seasons, despite oozing potential since his UCLA days.
Post-Title Career: Signed with Houston to be a 20 pt scorer despite never shooting more than 7.3 shots a game for a season. Shot less than 40% from the field in the ensuing 2 seasons (30% from three last season).
2010: Jordan Farmar (Lakers to Nets)
Cog Factor: Backed up Derek Fisher and, later, Shannon Brown during the Lakers' 2nd title run.
Red Flag We Should've Seen Then: Couldn't beat out Derek Fisher and, later, Shannon Brown for playing time.
Post-Title Career: Signed with New Jersey for a chance to start at point guard, which lasted 3 months into the season, at which point he started backing up Deron Williams.
Clearly, there are more than a few issues with signing role players fresh off the best moments of their professional careers (the last one notwithstanding, I'm actually a Jordan Farmar fan, and wish he got a real shot to run a team just once). With that in mind, take a look at some of the coveted free agents off this year's champion Dallas Mavericks.
Tyson Chandler
Cog Factor: Anchored Dallas' sneaky good defense for the title, while also providing an unexpected offensive punch.
Red Flags We Should Be Noticing: Posted career high 65% field goal percentage during the season, and near career highs in offensive and defensive rebound rates (14% and 20%) in the playoffs. Has missed 30+ games three times in his NBA career (including 2 out of the last 3 seasons). Oklahoma City rescinded a trade offer for Chandler citing health concerns, while trading for and extending Kendrick Perkins to do essentially the same job despite recently tearing his own ACL.
Deshawn Stevenson
Cog Factor: Classic D-and-3 role player for Dallas, guarding Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant, and Lebron James/Dwayne Wade, shot 40% from 3 while taking over 3 three pointers a game.
Red Flags We Should Be Noticing: Has shot 40% from 3 for a season once in 11 NBA seasons. Only made 2 of 15 2 point attempts in 21 postseason games in 2011.
J.J. Barea
Cog Factor: Played backup point guard with particular success against the Lakers (averaged 11.5 ppg on 50% shooting, with 5.5 assists in the series).
Red Flags We Should Be Noticing: Has never shot better than 44% in any regular season, and shot 42% overall in the playoffs (39% against the Heat). Has never averaged 4.0 assists per game in season (averaged 3.4 assists per game in the 2011 playoffs). His offensive role includes running the pick-and-roll with Dirk Nowitzki, arguably the toughest and most unique screener to defend in the NBA.
Am I saying that these players aren't any good? Hardly. They just helped one of the more unlikely NBA champions in the last few years climb the mountain. But, it should be noted that, for every Tyson Chandler, there's a Samuel Dalembert. For every Deshawn Stevenson, there's a Shane Battier. For every J.J. Barea, there's a Marcus Thornton. And those guys might do the same job for a little less money next season.
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