Million Dollar Decisions: The Downside of Not Going Early

As the college basketball season wraps up its first 2 months, it's clear that the talent level on display is something that hasn't been seen in a few years. There are two reasons: first, the freshman class boasts some impressive prospects. Second, some of the best prospects from last year's freshman class came back as sophomores. That decision, to turn down the draft and come back to school, seems to have worked out for college basketball fans. But does it work out for the players involved? If you devote any time to this thought, please think of Willie Warren.

For those who don't remember, Willie Warren was a McDonald's All-American who went to Oklahoma in 2008, teaming with a sophomore forward named Blake Griffin. After a freshman season that included a #2 seed in the tournament and an Elite 8 loss to eventual champion UNC, Warren had drawn the attention of several scouts, and was talked about as a potential lottery pick in the 2009 NBA Draft.

Warren faced a decision. Stay in school, or go to the NBA. After testing the waters, he decided to return to Oklahoma for his sophomore year. The season did not go well, and he ended up a 2nd round pick in the 2010 draft, going to the Clippers. 2nd round draft picks rarely get fully guaranteed contracts, and Warren was no exception. Lost in all the hoopla of the Clippers' recent Chris Paul trade, and Chauncey Billups signing? After only one season in the NBA, Wille Warren was waived this week.

What did it end up costing Willie Warren to come back to school for his sophomore year? A lot of people speculate on the relative pros and cons. Well, here are the dollars. Warren made $500k in the 2010-2011 NBA season, plus the value of one year's full ride to Oklahoma for the 2009-2010 season (optimistically, $50k). Toney Douglas, the 29th pick in the 2009 NBA Draft Warren pulled out of, has earned $2.1mm in his first two years in the league. Now, there are no guarantees that Warren would have been a 1st round pick in 2009. But, since 2006, 75% of all freshman draft entrants were drafted in the 1st round. It's not hard to do the math...

Leaving After Freshman Year: $2.1mm * 0.75 = $1.6mm earned
Returning for Sophomore Year: $0.5mm + $0.05mm = $0.6mm earned

The decision to return to school has already cost Willie Warren one million dollars in two years. According to some studies, that's almost half the money a college graduate earns in their whole life. Funny how the talking heads that bash kids like DeAndre Jordan and BJ Mullens for leaving early never seem to mention the actual value of an undergraduate degree. Why should they? It's not a million dollar decision to them if one kid stays or goes.

But it is a million dollar decision for that kid. And like most major decisions in life, he probably won't get a do-over. So, as the college basketball world prepares to question the sanity of teenagers deciding to go pro early this April, remind me: what's insane about earning more money in a year than most people do in their whole lives, to play a game? Especially when that offer doesn't last forever?