Assessing the Bobcats' Pieces: Kemba Walker (2012-2013)

As the Bobcats continue their rebuilding process, the key to achieving success will be building a roster of players capable of major contributions on a playoff team. As the 2012-2013 season approaches, it's important to take stock of the key players on the team today, and whether they do (or will) fit that bill.

Kemba Walker came to the Bobcats on draft night with a decent amount of fanfare. Coming off a Player of the Year caliber season, and a national championship at UConn, his transition to the NBA as a 21 year old rookie might have seemed easier than other draftees. However, as the worst season in NBA history progressed, questions inevitably surfaced as to whether or not Walker was a key reason for the futility. So, with that in mind, it seems reasonable to compare his rookie season to recent rookie point guards that were 6-1 in height, and see what that says about his future NBA prospects.

Facilitating the Offense

It goes without saying, the Bobcats were one of the worst offenses in NBA history by several metrics. However, it's difficult to point to Walker as the main cause. Kemba Walker's rookie assist per game numbers (4.4) are better than Mike Conley, Rajon Rondo, and Ty Lawson. Not only that, Walker's assist-to-turnover ratio (2.43) is better than those three as well. All three of those guys are at least above-average NBA starters, and even on the worst team in NBA history, Walker fared better than they did as rookies on that front.

Scoring the Ball

As a habit, I continue to look at points per shot (total points versus total FGA and FTA) to measure player efficiency scoring the ball. While Walker's raw points per game appear average, he was an inefficient scorer; only Rondo was worse. How did this happen? Walker was essentially middle of the pack shooting free throws and threes. On two point attempts, however, only Brandon Jennings was less efficient as a rookie.

There are several reasons why a 6-1 (listed) point guard would struggle as a rookie on two point attempts.

• NBA defenders are taller, longer, quicker, and smarter than their college counterparts. Thus, scoring one-on-one is more difficult all over the floor.
• NBA defenses are more sophisticated and focused than other levels. The schemes and rotations are often tailored to make an off-the-dribble creator move the ball or take a contested shot.
• Rookies are perceived to get fewer calls than more experienced players on shot attempts, particularly in the paint and near the rim.

As a rookie transitioning to the NBA, that's a significant amount of challenges to overcome. But, those limitations are the same for everyone in this group, and they all face the same height limitations relative to their peers of prototypical PG size. The question is... will it get better?

Looking at the other five rookies on the list who struggled on two point attempts, the answer seems to be yes. Four out of five (Jennings, Augustin, Rondo, Felton) got better on two point attempts from Year 1 to Year 3. Also, those four also shot a higher number of free throw attempts per game. (The fifth player, Jonny Flynn, had a significant decrease in minutes in Year 3, along with being traded).

Verdict

Kemba Walker's rookie year has not offered much insight into the kind of player he will be in two years. An optimist could look at Rondo's statistical leap as a blueprint (unlikely, since the Bobcats didn't add Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen in the offseason). A pessimist could say that Walker's output singlehandedly keeps the Bobcats from ever making the playoffs (also unlikely, since Brandon Jennings put up comparable efficiency and assist-turnover numbers while leading his team to the playoffs in 2009-2010).

When I look at the other guys on the list, I see three guys (Paul, Rondo, Lawson) whose games will be difficult to emulate. I also see four guys who started for playoff teams (Nelson, Conley, Jennings, Felton) that Walker could equal and possibly surpass. Like every young player, there are anecdotal things that Walker could improve (using the roll man better on pick-and-rolls, running offense earlier in the shot clock). But, as with everything involving the Bobcats, it's going to take a while before we know the answer. I, for one, am still a believer.

Preseason View of the 2013 Draft Class

(Preseason View of the 2012 Draft Class)

Now that Midnight Madness has officially started the college basketball season, it's as good a time as any to look at those prospects already high on the radar screens of the NBA. This is, by no means, an exact science... of the 9 consensus lottery picks on the two noted mock drafts last year, 6 were actually drafted in the lottery. But, this could still help identify teams to watch during the season (example: last year's list convinced me to watch more Washington games than planned).

 

TIER 1: LOTTERY PICKS (8 Consensus, 15 Total)

Last Year: 13 Players, 11 Declared, 11 Drafted, 10 1st Rounders, 7 Lottery Picks 

 

The top 4 appear to be pretty set in stone, and Kentucky has three prospects as consensus lottery, versus two last year (hard to believe the metoric rise of MKG in twelve months as far as draft boards were concerned). As always, the fall risks always appear to be the guys that came back. A year ago Perry Jones and Jared Sullinger were considered lottery locks as returning sophomores. The only two who could be on the same path are Cody Zeller and James McAdoo, with McAdoo the bigger fall risk of the two.

 

 





TIER 2: 1ST ROUND CONSIDERATION (10 Consensus, 28 Total)
Last year: 21 Players, 11 Declared, 11 Drafted, 6 1st Rounders, 3 Lottery

There's a lot more debate at the bottom of the 1st round than last year, but it's so dependent on who declares and who doesn't, it's hard to nail any of these down. The most intriguing guys to start the year should be Austin, the Baylor freshman, followed by the eerily-similar-to-Jeff-Green Otto Porter at Georgetown. Outside of that, there's the usual collection of untapped raw potential (Austin, Mbakwe, Leslie, Dieng, Smith), older players with perceived lower ceilings (McCollum, Plumlee, McDermott), and some best guesses.

The best part about this? Guys like Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Dion Waiters, Damian Lillard, and Meyers Leonard. Guys that weren't in either group last year, all lottery picks in June. As a whole, there's a lot we think we know, and even more that we don't know.

The Market for Starting PG's (aka the Jeremy Lin Offer Sheet)

Jeremy Lin's 3 year, $25.1mm offer sheet seems to be provoking opinions from every possible corner of the NBA world. Setting aside the shrewdness of the Houston Rockets' offer (the tax-punishing year 3 salary of $15mm), the question that everyone seems to be asking (and answering): is Jeremy Lin worth this much money?

Is the Jeremy Lin Deal Fair Market Value for an NBA Point Guard?

While most people are taking a crack at this question, a large component that seems to be missing is assessing the market for starting NBA point guards, in terms of annual salary. Looking at the 28 NBA teams whose starting point guards and salaries are readily available (assuming that Lin is a Houston Rocket, and Felton is the Knicks' starting point guard), the data looks like this.

Based on Jeremy Lin's soon-to-be average salary ($8.4mm), he'll be making a little more than the league average. Now, while it seems odd that a guy with so few starts could command an above-market salary, remember that many of these players are not on "market" contracts. They're on rookie deals, which restrict their true market value. Removing the players on their rookie deals...



Among this group, the truly "market" contracts for starting point guards, Lin's annual salary seems more reasonable. Aside from the true franchise point guards (Williams, Rose, Paul, Westbrook, Parker, Rondo), there's a valid argument that Lin's production over the next 3 years could exceed each of the other players on the list.

Is Jeremy Lin's Value Inflated by the D'Antoni System?

Another way to look at Lin's value: was he a product of the system? D'Antoni point guards put up video game numbers, and it inflates their value. So, what have D'Antoni point guards done over the last few years?

Look at the starting point guards for the last four D'Antoni Knick teams. Based on the numbers per 36 minutes, three things jump out: first, the other two guys clearly outperformed their career stats in the D'Antoni system; some inflation does exist. Second, a younger, woefully inexperienced Lin outperformed those guys individually and won a higher percentage of games, with similar or lesser talent surrounding him. Third, Duhon and Felton were paid an average of $6.4mm per year to be the starting point guard for a D'Antoni team. If Lin plays in a similar system for the next 3 years, he'll be getting paid an additional $2mm over that average.

What's the Bottom Line?

Jeremy Lin's offer sheet, much like his rise to fame, boasts some startling numbers that don't make a lot of sense in isolation. But, putting the numbers in perspective makes them seem less outrageous. Questions about his ability to stand up to an 82 game season, and a league more honed in on shutting him down, are real. Questions about how his game will look outside the consequence-free, up-tempo environs of the Linsanity Knicks are warranted. However, his average salary (however back-loaded it may be) isn't far off the market for a point guard. The numbers he put up with the Knicks are better than his predecessors at the position. And, no matter how much he draws at the gate, eventually his talent will show to be genuine or fleeting. It's a reasonable risk to take, and like many free agent signings, his play will soon make several GM's look like geniuses or goats.