2014 Early Entry Analysis: Deadline Decisions

With the NCAA tournament over, college basketball players and other NBA draft hopefuls have little time to make a life-altering decision. Despite several sources of "information", it's difficult to find any reliable data. With that in mind, I've tried to look at this from the perspective of the best, publicly available information: the mock drafts of DraftExpress and NBADraft.net as of today.

The past three years (2011-2013 NBA Drafts), I've written this post using the mock drafts available at the time (post-tournament, pre-deadline), not at the beginning of the season or the week before the draft. This way, it's a true(r) representation of the imperfect information that's out there. What have the past three years shown about how useful my typical tiers are?

1. PROJECTED LOTTERY PICKS ARE VERY LIKELY TO BE DRAFTED IN THE 1ST ROUND.

In the last three years of NBA drafts, 33-40 players have chosen to enter the draft that were projected as a lottery pick by one or two of the mock drafts. All of those players ended up being drafted in the 1st round, and at least 80% of them ended up lottery picks. They may not have signed for as much money as they hoped, but they were signing guaranteed rookie contracts.

2. PROJECTED 1ST ROUND PICKS OUTSIDE THE LOTTERY ARE MEANINGFULLY LESS LIKELY TO BE DRAFTED IN THE 1ST ROUND.

For the players that went into the draft as projected 1st round picks outside the lottery, the chances of falling out of the 1st round are much higher. While this idea is easily accepted without digging into data, consider the magnitude: for every three players that thought they were a mid-teens to late 1st round pick based on a mock draft, one of them fell to the 2nd round. That is a very real risk to consider.

3. BEING IN BOTH MOCK DRAFTS MATTERS, ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE THE LOTTERY.

Again, this seems like an intuitive point, but the magnitude is significant. Being a lottery pick on both mock drafts means seven out of eight guys will go in the lottery, versus four out of five going with only one site. Outside the lottery, being in both mock 1st rounds meant that a player significantly reduced the chance of falling out of the 1st round altogether.

Now, the sample size (three years) isn't nearly big enough to point to anything as a definitive trend, but at a minimum, it should indicate that the concept of this post is at least pointed in the right direction. Unless you're the type of person that says mock drafts have no value whatsoever, in which case, there's nothing I can say to change your mind. Now, without further ado, on to the (new and improved) tiers...

TIER 1. LOTTERY PICKS (LIKELY 1ST ROUNDERS) 

Despite all the hand-wringing over the top prospects, the consensus lottery picks (shaded in blue) are pretty familiar names to most people that look at potential draftees throughout the college basketball season. The non-consensus guys are the typical mix of international prospects that may or may not come out, and prospects with diverging opinions. Based on the last three years, these guys have a good shot of going in the lottery, and a very good shot of going in the 1st round if they enter the draft. It's also of note that despite the roller-coaster season Marcus Smart had as sophomore relative to his breakout freshman year, his standing as a mid-to-high lottery pick does not appear to be affected at this point.  

TIER 2. POSSIBLE 1ST ROUND PICKS.

For guys in this group, the potential for falling out of the 1st round is real. As a result, they are probably considering a few factors with regard to coming out this year: 1) the quality of their individual prospects next year; 2) the quality of their team prospects next year; 3) remaining work towards graduation; and 4) any personal situations that prioritize a professional career sooner rather than later. For some guys, the decision to come out is already made, but for others, this is a very difficult call. I would simply echo the following: seven guys on this list are projected as "consensus" 1st round draft picks. If recent history holds, then it's likely that one (or more) of those seven players falls out of the 1st round.  And, including both tiers, there are 35 projected 1st round picks, and only 30 actual 1st round picks. 

2013 Edition

2012 Edition

2011 Edition

2013 Early Entry Analysis: Deadline Decisions

2011 Edition

2012 Edition

With the NCAA tournament concluded, it's time to look at the NBA Draft's looming early entry decisions. For the kids involved, it's hardly an easy decision to make, and it's simply not an exact science.

The general logic is: if a player is viewed as a consensus lottery pick, it's better to go than stay. On the one hand, players can go back to school, work on their games, and improve their draft stock. Or, in a draft process judged on potential, they could fail to meet the usually ridiculous expectations set out for them, and lose some of the allure from their breakout year.

In 2011, four players chose to go back to school: Harrison Barnes, Jared Sullinger, Perry Jones, and Terrence Jones. I would argue that all four produced at similar levels in their extra season of college, but were picked apart for not expanding their games more. Three out of the four (excluding Barnes) paid a steep price in terms of draft potential.

In 2012, James McAdoo, Tony Mitchell, and Cody Zeller chose to go back to school, and despite not playing worse than they did as freshman, they didn't improve enough to satisfy some pretty lofty expectations, and have lost a little luster with regard to draft stock. It's not a fair world, but it is the world that these kids have to navigate. Here's a look at the perception of this year's prospects, based on mock drafts at Draftexpress and NBADraft.net, respectively.

NEED TO GO NOW (CONSENSUS 1ST ROUNDERS)

The shaded players are consensus lottery picks, and should definitely go. The others are consensus 1st rounders at this point.

At the beginning of the college basketball season, I mentioned that a few guys tend to appear out of nowhere. What an understatement. Guys like Marcus Smart and Victor Oladipo weren't even on the 1st round radar at the beginning of the season, and now both appear to be a high to mid lottery locks. As mentioned earlier, Tony Mitchell and James McAdoo have taken quite a hit, justified or not. And the Kentucky kids have fallen out of favor as well. Things can change quickly, so for players on this list, I'd think long and hard about the shot at a 1st round, guaranteed contract.

NEED TO THINK ABOUT IT (DEBATABLE 1ST ROUNDERS)

All these guys have had some time in the sun over the course of the season, being hailed as 1st round talents. I think that key determinants for these guys should include (in some order): development potential over the summer, likely team exposure (aka tournament success) relative to this past season, and progress towards a degree. The first one applies to the guys like Goodwin and Austin. The second applies to the Michigan trio and Shane Larkin. The third applies to juniors that may be headed for late 1st / early 2nd status anyway, but could finish their degree if they stay one more year.

What the Bobcats Might Do With a Top 3 Pick (2013 Edition)

As the end of the college basketball regular season approaches, GM's and front offices are honing in on the best talent in the upcoming NBA draft (at least the ones that aren't complaining about the class endlessly). Which players offer the best chance at all-NBA level production?

Tough Omissions: Nerlens Noel, Anthony Bennett

I'd say that both stand a good chance of making me look stupid in a short amount of time. Noel has unbelievable defensive ability, and Anthony Bennett is captivating to watch in a game. Since I'm only allowing three players, I leave these guys one cut below due to long term uncertainty about offense and positional fit, respectively. Also, I'm a little relieved Steven Adams from Pitt likely isn't coming out: if he declares, I may re-shuffle this a little bit.

Here are my best guesses for All-NBA talent in the 2013 Draft.

3. Shabazz Muhammad
Draftexpress profile

He has not had the easiest road through his freshman season. A combination of injuries, eligibility issues, illness, and the current mess of the UCLA basketball program have been more than a fair share of hurdles to overcome. Meanwhile, he's demonstrated scoring prowess from all over the floor, palpable intensity on the court, and a willingness to take the big shot (maybe too willing).

I see a potentially very good NBA scorer: scores on a variety of shots (including decent efficiency from three and generating free throw attempts). There is a chance that he's developed earlier than most (a la O.J. Mayo, Tyreke Evans), and his playmaking ability is limited (read: A-TO), but I think there's still some upside for him in the NBA.

(Also, since he's 6-6, can someone explain why so many people refer to him as a "prototypical NBA small forward?" Here are the respective heights of Lebron, Durant, Carmelo, Rudy Gay, Paul George, and Luol Deng: 6-8, 6-9, 6-8, 6-8, 6-8, 6-9. That's basically the small forward position of today's NBA, and Muhammad is two inches shorter than all those guys. I think he's a two in the NBA.)

2. Michael Carter-Williams
Draftexpress profile

His initial hype this season was probably more stats-based (over 10 assists per game) than anything, and as those numbers have fallen in conference play, so has the attention. His season to date has been somewhat inconsistent game to game (partially driven by the Southerland issue, I think), and his flashier pass attempts lead to unnecessary turnovers at times. Having said that, he has more potential than I think he gets credit for.

He has NBA level quickness and athleticism, which allows him to generate steals, push pace, get to the line, and finish in highlight fashion (I know everyone saw that game, but there are other examples). His court vision (arguably the toughest skill to acquire) would be high end at the NBA level from day one, and that trait has meaningfully affected Syracuse's play this year. The form on his jump shot seems to indicate that shot selection has as much to do with poor percentages as anything. And, he clearly relishes being "the guy" in crunch time situations.

I believe that, like Joe Johnson, Evan Turner, and James Harden before him, he'd be miscast matched up against point guards full time: meaning, I'd play him at both guard spots at the next level. He'd have to add some weight at shooting guard (although Kevin Martin has been a pretty good offensive pro with a similar frame), but he could create mismatches at either spot. I think he's a pretty unique talent at the next level, and can't wait to see what he can do in the NBA.

1. Isaiah Austin
Draftexpress profile

He could weigh anywhere from 200-230 pounds right now. That, combined with his height (7-1) and wingspan (7-3), limits his ability to bang in the paint when opponents have lower centers of gravity and more girth. And whenever someone of his size shoots any shot that isn't a dunk attempt, it feels like a win for the defense. And he doesn't have the same explosive athleticism of an Anthony Davis.

Austin could meaningfully impact both ends of the NBA floor. His offensive skill-set (developing post-up game, shooting and reasonable ball-handling out to 18+ feet) are replicated by few NBA players that match his size. Defensively, he alters shots, moves his feet smartly, and rebounds well. And, as far as weight, there are numerous examples of players both outgrowing their thin frames and learning to produce regardless (Kevin Durant, Kevin Garnett, Tyson Chandler, Marcus Camby).

The most important factor to me: he clearly has a motor. He plays through fatigue, inconsistent offensive touches, and the bumps and bruises guys his size accumulate. He's a demonstrable leader of his team, and he seems to love playing basketball (the most common complaint against players of his size). And if he does get to 240-250 pounds, he'll be a force in the NBA.

Postscript

Do you see this draft differently, love or hate the guys I've highlighted or omitted, or just want to troll? This is the post that invites feedback. Put up the three guys you think will be the best pros out of the 2013 draft. If you end up even partially right, you can gloat about it forever. If not, no one's going to remember anyway.

Could the '11-'12 Wildcats Beat the '11-'12 Bobcats?

During the 2011-2012 basketball season, the success of the national champion Kentucky Wildcats and the historic futility of the Charlotte Bobcats prompted a common question: since Kentucky's team was potentially stocked with NBA talent, could it beat an NBA team in a game?

There were a variety of responses to the question. Some were pretty aggressive, some spoke theoretically about a one-game scenario, while others shaded in that direction. Of course,Charles Barkley also sided with UK,  but then again, this is the same guy who said Yao Ming wouldn't score 19 in his rookie year (with hilarious consequences).

The fun in the question is that there is no credible way to answer the question, because who knows what Kentucky players would do against professional competition? Well, now that those Kentucky kids are almost halfway through their first season against NBA competition, how are they doing?

Marquis Teague. Despite losing Derrick Rose and CJ Watson from last year's squad, Teague has been unable to unseat journeyman veterans like Nate Robinson and Kirk Hinrich at the PG spot. He's playing 7.0 minutes per game, shooting 36.7% from the floor (despite taking virtually no threes), 62.5% from the FT line, and sports a PER of 5.83 (remember, the average NBA player scores a 15). Current NBA Status: FRINGE ROTATION PLAYER.

Doron Lamb. Lamb has averaged 12 minutes per game for the Bucks, shooting 34.7% from the floor (including 25% from three despite his reputed shooting prowess), netting a PER of 3.27 (that's worse than Cory Higgins last year: 4.17 ). Also, Lamb has been sent to the D-League. Current NBA Status: OUT OF THE LEAGUE.

Darius Miller. Miller has averaged 14 minutes per game for the Hornets, mixing decent 3 point shooting (33%) with a propensity to foul (1.9 per game), limiting his effectiveness as a "3 and D" rotational player (6.04 PER). Miller was also recently been assigned to the D-League by a rebuilding team. Current NBA Status: OUT OF THE LEAGUE.

Terrence Jones. Jones has averaged 8.3 minutes per game, contributing some poor shooting (38.2% overall, 25% from three) with nice production across the stat sheet (rebounds, assists, blocks, steals) given his limited minutes. He has also, unfortunately, been sent to the D-League. Current NBA Status: OUT OF THE LEAGUE.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Despite a strong start to the season, MKG has settled into more pedestrian production: 10.2 points on 47.9% shooting, 6.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.1 blocks, 0.7 steals, along with a few turnovers and fouls in 27 minutes per game. The result? A PER of 15.8, and very few fourth quarter minutes for the #2 pick, who plays for arguably the worst team in the NBA. Current NBA Status: STARTER.

Anthony Davis. The preseason NBA Rookie of the Year has had the most impact of this Kentucky class, producing 13.2 points, 8 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks in 29.3 minutes per game (PER of 20.84). He's also seen his minutes per game decrease in every month, most notably averaging only 23 minutes per game during the team's recent 6-1 stretch (nearly half the team's total wins this season). Current NBA Status: STARTER.

At this point, there are only two players from that team that are contributing average production to an NBA team, while the rest are largely off the NBA radar. This in no way says anything about their eventual pro potential; I happen to think at least three will be productive professional players (though not stars). But, there is a difference between playing college basketball and playing in the NBA, no matter what the perception of that may be. That difference means that a college team, no matter how accomplished and talented, doesn't have much hope against a team of NBA players.

Will any of this change the mind of casual basketball fans if another "college super-team" emerges in the next decade? Absolutely not. It's the same reason people casually say that Alabama's football team could beat the Jacksonville Jaguars. It doesn't have to be remotely accurate, it's just fun to talk about, and there's nothing wrong with that. Still, someone should tell Larry Brown that the Hornets have to finish on a 37-5 streak in order to justify his pre-draft hype.

College Basketball: What does the AP Poll Tell Us?

College basketball offers fans a less predictable postseason and champion than most other major sports. There are likely several reasons for this (single elimination tournament, 6 rounds of tournament play, wide variance in roster experience). However, for the people that follow the sport regularly, a natural question arises: does anyone know anything about who's going to win? And, does the regular season tell us anything?

In order to answer the questions, the AP poll is probably the best source of information. Since it offers rankings at the preseason, mid-season (before conference play), and end of season (pre-tournament), what does it say about our collective knowledge of college basketball over the last ten seasons?

PRESEASON SUCCESS: 73%
MIDSEASON SUCCESS: 71%
PRETOURNEY SUCCESS: 81%

Over the last ten years, the AP top 20 basically yielded six of the Elite Eight teams before a game was played. Through midseason (basically, right before conference play starts), that number did not improve; in fact, it was slightly worse. Bottom line: at this level, conventional wisdom seems neither good nor bad.

PRESEASON SUCCESS: 55%
MIDSEASON SUCCESS: 53%
PRETOURNEY SUCCESS: 68%

This looks like the most varied level of success for the poll. The preseason success was higher than the midseason success, and the pretourney number was the highest of them all. But it's so inconsistent: in two years (2011 and 2006), no preseason top 10 team made the Final Four. In the same years, only one top 10 team from the last poll made the Final Four. Apparently, the difference between winning three tourney games and winning four is real.

For picking the national champion, the AP poll has some interesting results. In the preseason poll, three out of the last ten champions were unranked: 2011 (UConn), 2006 (Florida), and 2003 (Syracuse). In fact, all three remained outside the top ten (#21, #11, #11, respectively) going into the tourney.

The most interesting part of this is the national champions from the top 5 in the poll. Given the variability seen in the Elite Eight and Final Four participants, it's comparatively impressive to see that six champions came out of the top 5 in preseason, and eight out of the midseason top 5.

Why is the pre-tourney number so low? It's hard to say for sure. The easiest answer is probably the idea that the polls reflect record more than ability as the season drags on, and teams that lose a game are very likely to fall (only five of ten national champions won their conference tournaments). But that does not reflect a diminished ability to win it all come March.

CONCLUSIONS

The AP poll is likely the best reflection of popular wisdom regarding college basketball, but it's far from perfect as a predictive tool.

• Whether it's November, January, or March, it's likely we'll get at least one Final Four team that "doesn't belong" based on the polls, and probably more. That is and hopefully always will be the best part of March Madness.
• As far as the Elite Eight and Final Four go, we collectively know nothing in week 8 that we didn't know before the season started. In fact, we might know a little less. It's almost enough to say that pre-January games don't matter at all, except...
• Despite the single-elimination, six-wins required gauntlet of the tournament, the top 5 teams in the AP poll matter, even in preseason, and maybe even more in midseason. In fact, the top 5 AP teams in week 8 have won more national titles in the last decade than the #1 seeds. There's no way that's a sure thing, but regardless, I'll probably take a look at the odds on Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Louisville, and Indiana to win it all come March, no matter what happens between now and then.

Preseason View of the 2013 Draft Class

(Preseason View of the 2012 Draft Class)

Now that Midnight Madness has officially started the college basketball season, it's as good a time as any to look at those prospects already high on the radar screens of the NBA. This is, by no means, an exact science... of the 9 consensus lottery picks on the two noted mock drafts last year, 6 were actually drafted in the lottery. But, this could still help identify teams to watch during the season (example: last year's list convinced me to watch more Washington games than planned).

 

TIER 1: LOTTERY PICKS (8 Consensus, 15 Total)

Last Year: 13 Players, 11 Declared, 11 Drafted, 10 1st Rounders, 7 Lottery Picks 

 

The top 4 appear to be pretty set in stone, and Kentucky has three prospects as consensus lottery, versus two last year (hard to believe the metoric rise of MKG in twelve months as far as draft boards were concerned). As always, the fall risks always appear to be the guys that came back. A year ago Perry Jones and Jared Sullinger were considered lottery locks as returning sophomores. The only two who could be on the same path are Cody Zeller and James McAdoo, with McAdoo the bigger fall risk of the two.

 

 





TIER 2: 1ST ROUND CONSIDERATION (10 Consensus, 28 Total)
Last year: 21 Players, 11 Declared, 11 Drafted, 6 1st Rounders, 3 Lottery

There's a lot more debate at the bottom of the 1st round than last year, but it's so dependent on who declares and who doesn't, it's hard to nail any of these down. The most intriguing guys to start the year should be Austin, the Baylor freshman, followed by the eerily-similar-to-Jeff-Green Otto Porter at Georgetown. Outside of that, there's the usual collection of untapped raw potential (Austin, Mbakwe, Leslie, Dieng, Smith), older players with perceived lower ceilings (McCollum, Plumlee, McDermott), and some best guesses.

The best part about this? Guys like Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Dion Waiters, Damian Lillard, and Meyers Leonard. Guys that weren't in either group last year, all lottery picks in June. As a whole, there's a lot we think we know, and even more that we don't know.

2012 Bobcats Draft Strategy

Last Year's NBA Draft Strategy

The NBA draft is almost here. That means it's time to sum up all the college tape, combine measurements, and pre-draft workouts, and pick players. Given the Bobcats' current (and potential) picks, and since NBA GM's will face the repercussions of their picks for years, it's only fair to put up some picks against theirs.

#2 Pick (or #4 Pick)
IDEAL PICK: ANDRE DRUMMOND.
I would be happy with either Drummond or Robinson. Reasonable minds can certainly differ on the risk-reward of each guy, and what the Bobcats need to rebuild their team as of today. I lean slightly towards Drummond because of overall potential, and a more favorable view of his work ethic and demeanor than others. Having said that, I'd have no problems with Robinson, I think they both have legitimate chances at being All-NBA level performers. The only guy who probably shouldn't by Charlotte specifically is Barnes, not because of ability, but because of the obstacles inherent in another UNC player playing in Charlotte.

Other Acceptable Picks (in order of preference): Thomas Robinson, Harrison Barnes, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

#24 (assuming Cleveland trade goes through)
IDEAL PICK: QUINCY MILLER
My fondness for Miller has been documented previously, and think the tremendous upside warrants a selection. Jeff Taylor's athleticism, motor, and intangibles translate to a borderline starter at SF (strong defense at 2 or 3, 3 point shooting, transition finishing) with a floor of rotation player. I can see both being good picks, but I'd roll the dice with Quincy, and hope that year 2 of his ACL recovery reveals the lottery talent most believe is lurking in that body.

Other Acceptable Picks (in order of preference): Jeff Taylor, Evan Fournier, trading for a 1st rounder next year

#31
IDEAL PICK: TONY WROTEN.
First off, if any of the previous three guys are still available, take them here immediately. But, if they're not... not many 6-5, athletic freshmen point guards last this long in the draft. There are certainly reasons for that: bad shooting stroke, difficulty driving and finishing to the right, defensive lapses, etc. This is more of an upside pick (Barton a little less so), but a big point guard with his natural abilities would be a great asset if harnessed correctly. And, to be honest, I'd rather roll the dice with either Wroten or Barton than take a swing with the plethora of undersized college 2 guards that are certain to be available (John Jenkins, Doron Lamb, Kim English)

Other Acceptable Picks (in order of preference): Will Barton, Kyle O'Quinn

A final thought: looking at each of the three picks above, two common themes emerge: positional versatility and significant upside. The Bobcats shouldn't be going anywhere in the next 1-2 years, and the long term competitiveness of the franchise doesn't need to be undermined for prospects more ready to contribute tomorrow. All three of the 2nd place picks (Robinson, Taylor, Barton) are a trade-off of ceiling versus bust potential. Given the state of the Bobcats roster, and the talent available at these spots, these picks seem like reasonable risks to take.

The Bobcats Rebuilding Plan: 2012 Edition

The Bobcats are starting year 2 of their rebuilding process. As noted previously, the "tear down to build up" strategy has worked for Memphis and Oklahoma City, only it took 4 years for each team. At the end of year 1, how does the situation look?

• Roster. One year ago, the team had arguably two players that might be starters on a contender: DJ Augustin and Gerald Henderson. Today? The team has four (DJ Augustin, Gerald Henderson, Kemba Walker, and Bismack Biyombo).
• Salary Cap. One year ago, the expiring contracts of note were Boris Diaw ($9 million) and Eduardo Najera ($2.6 million), with $20 million coming in 2013 (Stephen Jackson, Diop, Carroll). Today? The Diaw and Najera contracts are gone, and the same $20 million cap relief is coming in 2013, with the added bonus of moving up 12 spots in the draft (for Biyombo), courtesy of effectively swapping S-Jax for Maggette.

So, year 1 provided some positive steps despite the historically awful record. And, while the #1 pick didn't fall the Bobcats' way, that doesn't knock the plan completely off the rails. With that in mind, here's a few suggested steps that the Bobcats should take in the next two months.

1. Draft Andre Drummond or Thomas Robinson. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I really like both of them as prospects,, and think both offer reasonable risk/reward. I lean slightly toward the former versus the latter (the easy part about being an armchair quarterback: you get to hedge your bets, while the pros have to make a pick. I don't envy you at the moment, Rich Cho).

2. Trade DJ Augustin for the #16 pick. In case you didn't know, the Houston Rockets have some issues at PG. Kyle Lowry wants to be traded, and Goran Dragic is an attractive free agent target. As insurance, they might be persuaded that a one-year insurance policy at point guard is worth their 2nd 1st round pick. So, why should the Bobcats let him go?

First, it gives Kemba Walker the full time point guard role (and rids us of the dreaded 6-foot backcourt). Second, there's a strong possibility that Quincy Miller will be there at #16, a prospect I truly believe has elite NBA scoring potential. He's generally disregarded as a player coming out a year early, but that has little to do with his ultimate NBA value. Definitely worth the pick.

3. Sign Roy Hibbert to an offer sheet. Over the last 4 years, Hibbert has proven to be a durable anchor on the offensive and defensive sides of the floor, in addition to being a great locker room example for younger guys. Market value for his services is probably in the DeAndre Jordan / Marc Gasol range ($11-15 million per year). Signing him to the high end would either 1) convince him to join the Bobcats, or 2) force a conference rival to pay at-or-above market value. (Note: this might work, to a lesser extent, with Brook Lopez).

Why should the Bobcats spend their cap room like this? Well, because they've got a lot of it. Starting with the summer of 2013, the Bobcats will have over $30 million a year in salary cap room with its amnesty still intact (another $8 million if Tyrus is cut loose). Signing Hibbert at a $15 million clip and using the amnesty on Thomas would only use a net $6-7 million of all thet cap room. That means that there'd still be plenty of room to sign a max free agent.
Assuming all this happens, the Bobcats roster would look very different.
PG: Kemba Walker, Cory Higgins
SG: Gerald Henderson, Matt Carroll
SF: Quincy Miller, Corey Maggette
PF: Andre Drummond / Thomas Robinson, Bismack Biyombo
C: Roy Hibbert, BJ Mullens
So, you don't have to be completely depressed that the team lost out on Anthony Davis. The team still needs a teaching head coach and a decent veteran backup at point guard, but there are paths back to relevance that don't involve the 'Brow.

Steve Kerr is Wrong About Raising the Age Limit

Last week, Steve Kerr wrote a piece on Grantland concerning the NBA's current age limit. It's hard to say that there's a definitive right or wrong answer to the question he posed: is there an ideal age for players to enter the NBA? However, there were several points that seemed carelessly constructed or simply wrong, and I feel compelled to show the other side of his viewpoint.

1. Player Maturity

Kerr makes the point that a trend among young NBA players is a lack of maturity. Many of them seem unprepared to deal with the rigors of the NBA. That's probably because outside of playing in a foreign professional league like Brandon Jennings or Tony Parker did (neither of whom played college basketball), there is no good preparation for living life as an NBA player. And, for every example of an immature young player, there's an example of petulant behavior from players that went to college for 2+ years.

• Allen Iverson (2 college years) won scoring titles with little postseason success for years.
• Shaquille O'Neal (2 college years) didn't become a champion until Phil Jackson got him to fully commit, for 48 minutes, on both ends of the court.
• Chauncey Billups (2 college years) played for 4 teams before "figuring it out."
• Metta World Peace (2 college years) has had 2 careers' worth of issues.
• Deron Williams (3 college years) constantly clashed with Jerry Sloan, eventually prompting the longest-tenured coach in the NBA to resign rather than deal with him.

Basketball players, like everyone else, mature at different speeds. College is not a magic elixir to speed that process up.

2. Financial Costs

According to Kerr, the one-and-done rule harms the NBA financially by 1) allowing players to make more money by having longer careers (which is supposedly bad for some reason); and 2) losing the NBA money because teams invest money in bad draft picks versus good ones.

First off, NBA team salary levels aren't really dependent on the age of their players, for two reasons:

• NBA teams have to spend 85% of the salary cap each year on players. If they don't, like the Kings didn't a few years ago, they have to distribute the shortfall to all the players on the roster.
• The collective bargaining agreement guarantees that NBA players have to receive at least 49% of the league's basketball-related income.

Second, being an college upperclassmen doesn't make the draft evaluations any more accurate. There have been plenty of poorly evaluated players that spent 2+ years in college.

• Adam Morrison (Jr) was drafted ahead of Brandon Roy (Sr) in 2006.
• Nick Young (Jr) was drafted ahead of Aaron Afflalo (Jr) in 2007.
• Jason Thompson (Sr) was drafted ahead of Roy Hibbert (Sr) in 2008.
• Tyler Hansbrough (Sr) was drafted ahead of Ty Lawson (Jr) in 2009.
• James Anderson (Jr) was drafted ahead of Landry Fields (Sr) in 2010. Also, Jeremy Lin (Sr) went undrafted.
• Chris Singleton (Jr) was drafted ahead of Kenneth Faried (Sr) in 2011. 

3. Player Development

Using the examples of Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, and Michael Jordan, Kerr makes the argument that players with 2+ years of college experience arrive ready to play. Aside from the obvious flaw in using 3 of the 10 best players of all time as normal examples, that doesn't mean young players don't ever contribute right away. Younger players have stepped in and improved a team immediately.

• Amare Stoudemire took the Suns to playoffs in 2003 as a rookie out of high school. In his first ever playoff series, matched up with Tim Duncan (league MVP) and the eventual champion Spurs, he averaged 14 and 8, shooting 52% from the field.
• Carmelo Anthony joined the Denver Nuggets in 2003, turning a 17 win team into a 43 win playoff team as a rookie.
• Derrick Rose led the Bulls to the playoffs in his rookie year, taking the defending NBA champion Celtics to 7 games in arguably the greatest 1st round playoff series ever.

4. Marketing

College basketball is a great way to get non-NBA players national exposure at little to no cost to the NBA, giving the league an immediate boost in business for the teams that draft them. Kerr believes that the power of this effect has waned since the rookie years of Ewing, Jordan, Bird, Magic, and Hakeem, even asking rhetorically, "how often does that happen today?"

Well, as it turns out, in today's NBA, it happens quite a bit. To the right you can see the largest increases in home attendance over the past 10 seasons. Overall, there are two main drivers: winning, and big-time rookies. Lebron James, Kevin Durant, Carmelo Anthony all generated significant buzz despite only 1 year of college. Yao Ming and Ricky Rubio were big draws despite never playing a single college game. How many college upperclassmen registered with fans as rookies? There's no alum on the list from the 2-time national champion Florida Gators. No players from UConn's title teams. No upperclassmen sensations like Jay Williams, Adam Morrison, Stephen Curry, and Kemba Walker. The only upperclassmen entry? Raymond Felton and Sean May, from UNC, who were drafted by the Charlotte Bobcats in Charlotte, NC. Fans don't need college basketball to show them young talent. They can find it just fine on their own.

5. A Sense of Team

Kerr mentions here that the structure of the college game will be able to teach players lessons that will help them at the next level. These lessons, while lacking at other levels of basketball, exist in college.

Both Stephen Curry and Jimmer Fredette honed their offensive skills in at least 3 years of college basketball. However, neither of them learned to play adequate defense, and are both considered among the worst defenders in the NBA today. In both cases, you could argue that Davidson and BYU needed their scoring to win, even if it meant they never played defense. College coaches, like NBA coaches, are paid to win games, not develop players.

During Game 7 of the Lakers-Nuggets series, Kerr himself joked about the rawness of Javale McGee's offensive game, a stark contrast with the complete arsenal of Andrew Bynum. Well, one of those guys (McGee) spent two years in college, and one of them (Bynum) jumped straight from high school. In what way did McGee's 2 extra years of college development help him as opposed to Bynum the high schooler?

6. Mentoring

Kerr states that the league's stars need more professionalism and maturity:

"...it's the maturity and professionalism of veteran stars like Tim Duncan, Ray Allen, Grant Hill, Chris Paul, Steve Nash, Dwyane Wade, and Paul Pierce — guys who spent multiple years in college — setting the tone for everyone else. We need more of them."

 There are almost too many examples of quality leaders that didn't get 2 years of college.

• Everyone who covered the 2008 Celtics swears that Kevin Garnett (0 years of college) created the identity of toughness and intensity that pervades the Celtics, even getting historically non-defense guys like Ray Allen (3 years of college) and Paul Pierce (3 years of college) to buy in.
• The Oklahoma City Thunder has arguably the best young core in the league. The qualities of humility, tireless preparation, and laser-like focus flow from the leader of that team, Kevin Durant (1 year of college). In addition, most observers believe that part of OKC's failure in last season's playoffs stemmed from an inability of Russell Westbrook (2 years of college) to meld his talents with the team concept.
• Derrick Rose (1 year of college) and Kevin Love (1 year of college) have clearly changed the culture of their respective franchises, showing teammates the value of tenacity both on the court and in the offseason.

The argument for raising the NBA age limit seems to be based on anecdotal evidence at best, and no evidence at worst. The NBA as a business is as well-positioned as it's ever been, and the young talent is resonating with the fanbase. The current path of the league doesn't need to be altered, let alone "fixed" by changing this rule. As for other reasons for potentially changing the rule, I think that Commissioner Stern said it perfectly years ago:

"it's for [prospective players] and their parents to make the decision rather than all of us sanctimoniously and piously making these judgments."

Are College All-Star Teams a Blind Spot for NBA GM's?

As this blog has noted several times, consistent success in the NBA is significantly influenced by success or failure in the draft. It remains the major source for franchise cornerstone talent for all organizations, and seeing the difference between getting it right and getting it wrong is sometimes as easy as looking at Dwight Howard and Emeka Okafor. However, for all the opportunity and optimism, it's still not that easy to land one of the best talents in the NBA via the draft.

Looking back at the NBA drafts from 1990 to 2009, there were 572 players drafted in the 1st round, and 54 of them made an All-NBA team at least once in their careers. As noted in the chart above, that's a 9% success rate overall. Now, the obvious point is that higher picks have been more successful over that time. But as GM's start to look over this year's potential picks, particularly from teams like Kentucky and UNC that boast multiple prospects, a very important question bears asking. Do GM's fall for players that play with other 1st round talents, even when history says it's a bad idea? To try and answer this, let's look at draft picks in three groups: draftees with no 1st round teammates, draftees with one 1st round teammate, and draftees with two or more 1st round teammates.

First, let's take a look at players who were the only players from their team drafted that year in the 1st round. This by far the largest of the three groups (471 players), and the success rates look largely similar to the generic group. There's honestly not that much interesting stuff in this group, other than remembering the #1 picks that haven't made an All-NBA team: Glenn Robinson, Joe Smith, Michael Olowokandi, Kenyon Martin, Kwame Brown, Andrea Bargnani, and Blake Griffin (for now).

Next up are draftees that had one teammate drafted in the 1st round in the same year. It's a smaller group (68 players), so not every number is meaningful (the only #1 pick in the group was Allen Iverson). It's probably worth noting that of the 8 All-NBA players drafted in this group, 5 of them were the 2nd guy drafted from a team (Latrell Sprewell after Robert Horry, Sam Cassell after Doug Edwards, Vince Carter after Antawn Jamison, Paul Pierce after Raef Lafrentz, Zach Randolph after Jason Richardson). And the 8th guy, Russell Westbrook, was drafted right before Kevin Love, but they'll both be All-NBA players after this season. So, really, out of all the 2 man classes drafted over this period, the All-NBA player was the 2nd guy picked 5 out of 7 times.

Finally, it's the members of the college super-teams, the guys who were drafted alongside at least 2 teammates in the 1st round. 33 players are in this group, and their respective college teams probably ring a bell:

Michigan '90, UNLV '91, Arkansas '92, Kentucky '96, Duke '99, North Carolina '05, Connecticut '06, Ohio State '07, Florida '07, North Carolina '09

While the overall number looks similar (9% hit rate versus all picks at 9%), the number seems deceptive. The three All-NBA players all came within the top 3 picks: Larry Johnson (#1 overall), Elton Brand (#1 overall), and Al Horford (#3 overall). The hit rate is literally nonexistent outside the top 5 picks. The other, hugely important observation: 3 of the 10 first picks off a team (Rumeal Robinson, Larry Johnson, Todd Day, Antoine Walker, Elton Brand, Marvin Williams, Rudy Gay, Greg Oden, Al Horford, Tyler Hansbrough) made an All-NBA team. That means none of the other 23 guys drafted from those super-teams (the 2nd and 3rd best guys on those college teams) hit that level of success.

What, if anything, should be drawn from all this? For me, it reinforces something we all probably know intuitively. College basketball can often involve teams and schedules of very different quality. That difference usually makes it very difficult to project a player's prospects, i.e. the small college star who plays against competition that probably won't make it to the NBA. But, that's most of college - there are over 300 D-1 teams, and 30 NBA teams. If a player's level of competition can make evaluators skeptical, history shows that a player's quality of teammates might require the same treatment.

Does this mean that the NBA draft world is looking at Anthony Davis and Harrison Barnes with rose-colored glasses? Based on the 20 drafts I looked at, no. Views of the best guy on these teams don't seem to get skewed. But should evaluators be careful with John Henson, Tyler Zeller, Kendall Marshall, Terrence Jones, Doron Lamb, and Marquis Teague? Yeah, I think they need to be very careful.

Oh, and maybe take another look at Jeremy Lamb, Tony Wroten, Mason Plumlee, Tyshawn Taylor, Fab Melo, John Jenkins, and Quincy Miller. As of right now, they're all the 2nd guy drafted from their respective college teams.

2012 Early Entry Analysis: Deadline Decisions

It's a little earlier than last year's post, but if the NCAA can move up its deadlines out of convenience, then who can't? Just like last year, this is not an attempt to definitively say any single prospect should or should not leave school. It is merely a subjective view of what 3 popular draft websites think of their likely positions in the 2012 draft.

NEED TO GO NOW (Consensus 1st Rounder)

The highlighted players are consensus lottery selections, while the rest are rated as 1st round picks by all 3 referenced draft websites. It's interesting to look at the draft statuses of Harrison Barnes, Jared Sullinger, Perry Jones, and Terrence Jones. All 4 players were consensus lottery picks last year, with potential draft slots from 3-14. They all went back to school for a chance to win it all, and they got to the Elite 8, Final 4, Elite 8, and a national championship, respectively. It's also safe to say that all of them will be drafted lower than they were last year (Terrence Jones was a consensus lottery pick last year). For those who say you can't put a price on the college experience, consider the following:

• In the 2011 draft, the last 8 lottery picks (6-14) signed contracts worth an average $6 million in the 1st 3 years, guaranteed. Picks 15-20 signed contracts worth an average of $4 million (difference of $2 million).
• Based on last year, the average 3 year contract value by draft pick slot was: $11 million (1-5), $7mm (6-10), $5 million (11-15), $4 million (16-20), $3.2 million (21-25), $2.7 million (26-30)

The decision to go back to school gave all 4 players another year of scholarship benefits and college competition, but easily cost each of them at least $500,000 depending on where they get drafted this year.

SHOULD CONSIDER LEAVING

Relative to last year, it feels like there's a little less variety in where players are getting drafted. In particular, none of these 5 players looks like they could sneak into the lottery at this point.

TAKING A RISK

Again, not a lot of controversy here.

REAL THINKING NEEDS TO BE DONE: Cody Zeller, James McAdoo

The first two are consensus top 5 picks in next year's draft. It's hard to say what that means in terms of this year's draft, but there's a definite interest in both of these guys at the next level. Whether their potential is worth a top 10 pick this year is hopefully what their coaches are trying to figure out for them right now. Because, as last year proved for several top flight prospects, places in the NBA draft are fleeting, even for the best prospects.

What the Bobcats Might Do with a Top 3 Pick

After watching the Charlotte Bobcats test new levels of futility over the last few weeks, it's more than clear that the "tear down, lotto up" plan is in full effect. No mater what short term pain this causes, people have to remember that for small market teams, this is how rebuilding happens. With that knowledge in hand, we can freely turn our attention to a fairly "deep" 2012 draft, and ponder the possibilities.

The idea of a "deep" draft is really in the eye of the beholder. Your perspective depends on what you need. To that point, take a look at this:

Every NBA champion of the last 20 years, all of them, had at least one All-NBA player that year. Of the 40 teams that played in the NBA Finals, 36 had at least one All-NBA player. In fact, 17 of the last 20 champions had an All-NBA 1st Team player. And of those 17, only Shaq (free agent, trade) and Garnett (trade) didn't arrive on draft night. Success in the NBA begins and ends with drafting a superstar. While I think there are several players on the Bobcats that could one day play key roles on a contending team (Kemba, Gerald, Biyombo), there probably isn't an All-NBA player on the roster at this point. That's the #1 priority for this pick, plain and simple.

With that background, take another look at the 2012 draft. Are there 5-10, maybe even 15 quality rotation players in this draft? Almost certainly. Are there 5 perennial All-Stars in this draft? Maybe, but probably not. Is there an All-NBA player in this draft? Maybe one, possibly two. Tough call to make. But that's what Rod Higgins and Rich Cho have to do. Here's how I'd make the decision, as of February 2012.

1 All-Star Game is a Stretch: Terrence Jones, Bradley Beal, Tyler Zeller, John Henson

Again, this is not an indictment of their ability to play at the next level. It is a guess that there are ceilings for these guys lower than perennial All-Star.

Maybe 1 All-Star Game, But Definitely Not 2: Meyers Leonard, Jeremy Lamb, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

Lamb and Kidd-Gilchrist are both great prospects, and in the right roles, will thrive at the next level. But that success is highly dependent on the situations they arrive in, which is a clear cut below the threshold the Bobcats need.

Could Be All-NBA, But the Odds are Pretty Low: Perry Jones, Jared Sullinger, Anthony Davis

Jones is the easiest one to put here. Sullinger will be a statistically productive pro, no doubt about it, but I'm pretty sure Udonis Haslem is the only 6'8 guy who logged the PF minutes for an NBA champion (next to Shaq and Alonzo Mourning) in the last 20 years. Smarter people than me love Anthony Davis, but I'll say two things about him.

• 4.7 blocks a game is impressive. But Emeka Okafor averaged 4.7 in his last year at UConn, and never developed enough on the other side of the floor to anchor a franchise. Also, six other guys have led college basketball with similar blocks per game numbers since then, and the NBA hasn't heard from any of them. That skill alone doesn't predict NBA success very well.
• Lanky, rangy forward/centers with pogo stick legs and a flash of guard-like skills are not new. How many of these wiry guys end up busts? Anthony Randolph, Brendan Wright, Julian Wright, Andrea Bargnani, Tyrus Thomas, Charlie Villanueva, Channing Frye... that's just the last few years worth of lottery picks. 

If Only I Had the Guts, But I Don't: Quincy Miller

I wish I could justify this with extremely sound analysis and tons of hard data. I can't. But every time I watch him, I see a serious scoring skill-set (ball-handling, shooting, decision making) from a true NBA small forward. I see nice athleticism and explosiveness that will only improve as he continues to heal from a terrible knee injury in high school. And I see a game partially held down by sharing the floor with a top 10 pick (Perry Jones), a grizzled senior (Quincy Acy), and a point guard who rarely sets up other scoring plays (Pierre Jackson). You can't use a top-3 pick on him this year, but I don't think it'll seem so far-fetched in 2013 if he goes back to school.

The Best Chances: Harrison Barnes (#3)

The whole world has jumped on and off this bandwagon several times in 18 months, and I'm no exception. Last year, I was worried that he never blew by people off the dribble. This year, I'm worried that he doesn't play both ways with consistent effort. But let's not forget what is known: he makes jumpshots from all over the floor (not just threes), he's got a slight Brandon Roy-esque craftiness (without the passing) as a scorer, and he's got plenty of practice being "the man," for better or worse.

Thomas Robinson (#2)

Incredible blend of physical and mental tools. The physical tools seem pretty evident (yesterday's Oklahoma game was a nice sampler on offense), and the mental tools show up in rebounding and composure (last Saturday's Iowa State loss). The Kansas offense may not be showing us everything he has to offer, and I like his chances to realize his full potential at the next level. For the naysayers who think that if he didn't do it as a freshman, it's less impressive, that seems logical. It means you pass on sophomore Blake Griffin because freshman Michael Beasley was more impressive, but that's your call.

Andre Drummond (#1)

His path to UConn takes the word "curious" to new levels. You can watch  games and forget he's on the floor, which is terrible. His demeanor, combined with his skills, almost make his successful plays too easy, and thus underwhelming. It appears that he may not love basketball enough to realize his potential. Having said that... Andre Drummond can do just about anything on a basketball court. In terms of size, athleticism, fluidity, court vision, he's arguably in the upper echelon of NBA centers already. There simply is no player available that could affect the offensive and defensive sides of an NBA game like Andre Drummond. And there probably hasn't been one like that since Derrick Rose. If only he had Derrick's motor, this would be a no-brainer.

That's my pick, with two major things that could change the order among the top three. 1) If UConn fails to make the tourney, that's a red flag on Drummond. With 5 guys on the court, 2 lottery picks should be enough to be one of the 66 best teams in college basketball. 2) If Thomas Robinson doesn't measure out as a legit PF at the combine. Tweener power forwards can play, but ceilings are just lower for undersized players.

What Does the UNC-FSU Game Mean?

In college basketball, the regular season seems less indicative of postseason success than any other major sport. VCU goes from one of the final four in the tournament to... well... one of the Final Four in the tournament. UConn goes from 9th in the Big East to national champs. Is there anything that can be learned from things that happen during the regular season? Well, that's what UNC fans are probably wondering after this weekend. What does a 33 point loss say about a team's chances to win a national title?

If you think the Tar Heels can't win the national title, you've got some ammunition. Of the past 20 national champions, none of them ever lost a game by 30+ points the year they won it all. And one player having the game of his life isn't an excuse to quit, because games like can happen to ranked teams... just ask Ohio State. Tough game conditions can happen, and a team that quits doesn't have a great shot to win in March.

On the other hand, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic. 15 of the last 20 national champions lost at least one game by 10+ points, and the largest margin of defeat by a champion in that time? The 1993 Tar Heels, courtesy of a 26 point loss to Wake Forest. Also, UNC still boasts arguably the best talent and the best coach in the country, which is two thirds of the battle, at worst. And, the Seminoles clearly match up well with UNC, as evidenced by their 3-3 head-to-head record over the past few years.

Does one argument win out over the other? Not really, no. As much as everyone (myself included) would like to divine some indisputable meaning from this bizarre result, there just isn't any to be had. Lots of improbable things happen once, especially in sports. And while it's completely predictable that a UNC loss in March will spawn countless references to this game as the red herring, the fairly obvious truth is this: right now, nobody really knows.

Million Dollar Decisions: The Downside of Not Going Early

As the college basketball season wraps up its first 2 months, it's clear that the talent level on display is something that hasn't been seen in a few years. There are two reasons: first, the freshman class boasts some impressive prospects. Second, some of the best prospects from last year's freshman class came back as sophomores. That decision, to turn down the draft and come back to school, seems to have worked out for college basketball fans. But does it work out for the players involved? If you devote any time to this thought, please think of Willie Warren.

For those who don't remember, Willie Warren was a McDonald's All-American who went to Oklahoma in 2008, teaming with a sophomore forward named Blake Griffin. After a freshman season that included a #2 seed in the tournament and an Elite 8 loss to eventual champion UNC, Warren had drawn the attention of several scouts, and was talked about as a potential lottery pick in the 2009 NBA Draft.

Warren faced a decision. Stay in school, or go to the NBA. After testing the waters, he decided to return to Oklahoma for his sophomore year. The season did not go well, and he ended up a 2nd round pick in the 2010 draft, going to the Clippers. 2nd round draft picks rarely get fully guaranteed contracts, and Warren was no exception. Lost in all the hoopla of the Clippers' recent Chris Paul trade, and Chauncey Billups signing? After only one season in the NBA, Wille Warren was waived this week.

What did it end up costing Willie Warren to come back to school for his sophomore year? A lot of people speculate on the relative pros and cons. Well, here are the dollars. Warren made $500k in the 2010-2011 NBA season, plus the value of one year's full ride to Oklahoma for the 2009-2010 season (optimistically, $50k). Toney Douglas, the 29th pick in the 2009 NBA Draft Warren pulled out of, has earned $2.1mm in his first two years in the league. Now, there are no guarantees that Warren would have been a 1st round pick in 2009. But, since 2006, 75% of all freshman draft entrants were drafted in the 1st round. It's not hard to do the math...

Leaving After Freshman Year: $2.1mm * 0.75 = $1.6mm earned
Returning for Sophomore Year: $0.5mm + $0.05mm = $0.6mm earned

The decision to return to school has already cost Willie Warren one million dollars in two years. According to some studies, that's almost half the money a college graduate earns in their whole life. Funny how the talking heads that bash kids like DeAndre Jordan and BJ Mullens for leaving early never seem to mention the actual value of an undergraduate degree. Why should they? It's not a million dollar decision to them if one kid stays or goes.

But it is a million dollar decision for that kid. And like most major decisions in life, he probably won't get a do-over. So, as the college basketball world prepares to question the sanity of teenagers deciding to go pro early this April, remind me: what's insane about earning more money in a year than most people do in their whole lives, to play a game? Especially when that offer doesn't last forever?

Recognizing a College Coaching Great

Sometimes, it's easy to take for granted the quality and volume of someone's accomplishments. They've done it so well, for so long, the bar they set becomes so high, that excellence becomes the expectation. Well, for at least a moment, let's take some looks at the amazing resume of a coach leading one of college basketball's most storied programs. That's right... it's time to check out how awesome Roy Williams is.

WINNING THE GAME  

It's as simple as it gets, and while total wins matter, you can win a lot of games by: 1) winning a lot of the games you play, 2) playing a lot of games, or 3) a little of both. I believe that to measure greatness, you lean towards option 1, and by that measure, Roy Williams' career to date truly stands out. By the way, for those of you rooting for Roy to break the all-time wins record, don't hold your breath. Even if Coach K retired tomorrow, and Roy kept up his historic pace of winning nearly 29 games a season, he'd likely break the record sometime during the 2019-2020 season, at the age of 69.

WINNING THE CONFERENCE

Aside from winning a national title, the most prestigious thing a coach can do is win the conference, right? Again, when looking at regular season conference titles, the consistency of Roy is just amazing. "Oh, but conference titles are won in tournaments, not the regular season." Until recently, no. For conferences like the Big Ten (1998) and Pac-10 (1987), these are fairly recent developments that college basketball did just fine without for decades (in fact, a UA assistant coach pretty much summed up the real reason conference tourneys exist at all). But, if you want to have a discussion about the best college coaches of all time without Bob Knight and John Wooden (neither played in conference tournaments for the majority of their careers), knock yourself out. You'll probably love my next post, "Great Boxing Movies Excluding Rocky and Raging Bull."

WINNING IT ALL

For some people, there is no other way to measure greatness, and arguing with them is like debating degrees of danger with Colonel Jessup. Well, here you go. Fans of Coach K, this is the clearest way to put him head and shoulders above the peers of his era. For everyone else, maybe you didn't realize how much this shot mattered to a legacy at the time, but it mattered a lot. And in the era of the one-and-done blue chip recruit, the six-game winning streak required to cut down the nets, the top two guys on this list are going to be hard to catch, both in total titles, and titles per season. Unless Roy wins one in the next 3 seasons, at which point, he takes the #2 spot on a percentage basis.

So, as we march through the season, make sure to enjoy some UNC games this year. Because how often do we get a chance to watch one of the all-time great coaches in the ACC?

(Note: stats are calculated before this season's games, since the season is not complete)

A Bobcats Plan for the 2011 Draft

Despite all the attention paid to deadline trades and free agent signings, franchise cornerstones arrive on draft night. As in, 26 of the last 32 NBA Finals MVP's were drafted by their respective teams*. For Bobcats fans, a good draft is an exercise in hope, and a great draft is almost delusional. How can I say that? From '06-'08, 3 out of 5 Bobcats lottery picks don't have NBA contracts for next season (4 out of 7 1st rounders). In fact, I'd argue the team's 3rd most successful draft was the 2010 Draft, because there weren't any draft picks to screw up.

But, as an extremely biased and optimistic fan, I believe the team's drafts have turned a corner. In '09, Gerald Henderson and Derrick Brown were good draft choices, and the acquisition of Rich Cho as a GM will undoubtedly bring an analytical element that the front office has never truly embraced. So, with withdrawal deadlines in the rearview mirror, and just a few days until the draft, it's time to finalize thoughts on what the Bobcats should do.

First off, trading up is not a good idea. There's a better chance of getting two solid starters at #9 and #19 than getting an All-NBA player in the top 5. Plus, the Bobcats have Chicago's 1st round pick next year. Seriously, would you rather package two picks for a chance at Irving/Williams/Kanter/Knight/Vesely/Walker this year, or do the same for a chance at Anthony Davis/Harrison Barnes/Perry Jones/James McAdoo/Austin Rivers next year? Plus, according to the ESPN Trade Machine, even an expiring contract like Diaw can't be traded, because he hasn't technically exercised his player option yet. Yeah, let's just wait this out, and get 2 starters and a rotation guy this year.

#9 Pick
Ideal Pick: Kawhi Leonard. You've already read about how much I like him, so let's not re-hash it.

Other Acceptable Picks (in order of preference): Jonas Valanciunas, Kemba Walker, Jan Vesely, Alec Burks, Nikola Vucevic, Klay Thompson, Chris Singleton

#19 Pick
Ideal Pick: Nikola Vucevic. The more I read about him, the more I like. He's a center from a size perspective (with a 6% body fat measurement at the combine, his 7-0 / 260 lbs. seems better than a lot of other big man prospects). He has a real offensive skill-set with his back to the basket, shooting range out to 20+ feet, and appears passable at minimum in the other facets (rebounding, defense, work ethic). He won't face the transition hurdle of the international prospects since he's played at USC for 3 years. I think he's a legit starting center in the league, and his combination of size, skill, and low risk is quite rare (feels a lot like Brook Lopez). In fact, I could even talk myself into a major reach by taking him at #9, that's how much I like him. 

Other Acceptable Picks (in order of preference): Klay Thompson, Chris Singleton, Tobias Harris, Jeremy Tyler, Tyler Honeycutt

#39 Pick
Ideal Pick: Norris Cole. All I see is Eric Maynor when I look at Norris Cole. True point guard, with the physical size and athleticism to keep up with the pro game, a consummate floor general and team guy who will stick in the league. If you know of a reason that he won't make it, I'd like to know. Because, from my perspective, there aren't guaranteed rotation players (minimum) in the 2nd round... except for Norris.  

Acceptable Picks (in order of preference): Jeremy Tyler, Jon Leuer, Jimmy Butler, Scotty Hopson, Josh Selby

*Dirk Nowitzki and Kobe Bryant acquired in draft day trades, but drafted that day. So I'm counting them in the 26.

Drafting for the Bobcats

The NBA Draft is a lot like hitting a baseball, something I know literally nothing about. There are different definitions of success, and different ways to go about getting it done.

 - Sometimes you don't need to be a hero, and just advancing runners is a good enough win (low upside, low downside).
 - Sometimes, you're situated to take a reasonable shot at an extra base hit, knowing that it's okay that it might not work out (the calculated risk).
 - Sometimes, you flail so hard at the ball that the most likely outcome is you walking back to the dugout, after looking really stupid. But, for whatever reason, you wanted that home run so bad, you decided it was time to take a shot.

In my opinion, DraftExpress provides everything you'd want to know about a prospect and more, but here's my view of what the Bobcats are looking at in their draft slots, and what I think they should do.

#9 (Joakim Noah/Brook Lopez to Joe Alexander) 
Laying Down the Bunt: Kawhi Leonard, Marcus Morris
The 2-0 Swing:  Donatas Motiejunas, Alec Burks
Swinging Out of Your Shoes: Bismack Biyombo

My Pick: Kawhi Leonard. I see shades of Gerald Wallace (great rebounder, energy and versatility on defense), with a little sprinkle of Andre Iguodala (underrated passer handling the ball, particularly in the open court, potential lockdown defender). Is he the best player on a title contending team? No. But the last 6 champions needed a glue guy wing defender like this on their team (Prince, Bowen, Posey, Bowen, Posey, Ariza, Artest). He's ready to play in the NBA tomorrow, and when I watched him play a few games at SDSU, I saw versatility, athleticism, two-way ability, and hustle. I want Kawhi Leonard on the Charlotte Bobcats. Don't argue. Just accept it.

#19 (Ty Lawson to Quincy Douby) 
Laying Down the Bunt: Kenneth Faried, Chris Singleton
The 2-0 Swing: Jordan Hamilton, Tyler Honeycutt, Travis Leslie
Swinging Out of Your Shoes: Lucas Noguiera, Josh Selby

My Pick: Lucas Noguiera. I can already hear the Alexis Ajinca comparisons. They're both 7 footers that make Kevin Durant look like Ron Artest. I can't say that I disagree, but... he's 18 years old, with ridiculous physical potential. Easy to compare him to Ajinca and laugh, but tell me how he's different from Serge Ibaka as a prospect in 2008? He's a longshot, but he may be stashed overseas for a year or two...or forever. I'd rather use the $1.2mm salary that pick is allotted as dry powder for a potential free agent offer (spoiler alert: he plays for the Kings).

#39 (Landry Fields to Stanko Barac) 
Laying Down the Bunt: Nolan Smith, JaJuan Johnson, Trey Thompkins
The 2-0 Swing: Darius Morris, Jereme Richmond, Norris Cole, Charles Jenkins
Swinging Out of Your Shoes: Scotty Hopson, Malcolm Lee, Jeremy Tyler

My Pick: Norris Cole. In the 2nd round, there aren't a lot of All-Star caliber players available. In fact, it's important to remember that most of these guys are out of the league in less than 2 years. With that in mind, this is where I pick the guy that has a spot on an NBA roster. That guy? Norris Cole. True point guard, with NBA size, demonstrated ability to run a team (esp. in pick-and-roll) and do what it takes to help his team win. Case in point? Over 20 ppg against Butler (3 games) as the focal point of his team's offense, and 20 rebounds in a game (in college, I believe a young Rajon Rondo was the last PG to do that). This was Cleveland's sleeper before they got the #1 pick and Kyrie. Now, hopefully, he'll be our sleeper.

2011 Early Entry Analysis: Deadline Decisions

Since tonight is the official deadline for college basketball's early entrants to withdraw or stay in the draft, it's probably the right time to take a look at who should stay in school, and who should go. Obviously, if three major NBA mock draft sites have a player as a 1st rounder, I believe that means that player should go. Since Harrison Barnes, Jared Sullinger, and Perry Jones have already announced they're staying, let's look at who's staring down their decisions before the deadline. (For the record, all three guys were consensus lottery picks, and extremely likely top 5. Let's see how that plays out. My guess is that 2 of those guys are disappointed with their decision a year from now).

HAVE TO GO NOW (consensus 1st rounders): Alec Burks, Bismack Boyimbo, Brandon Knight, Chris Singleton, Derrick Williams, Donatas Motiejunas, Enes Kanter, Jan Vesely, Jordan Hamilton, Kawhi Leonard, Kemba Walker, Klay Thompson, Kyrie Irving, Marcus Morris, Markief Morris, Terrence Jones, Tobias Harris, Trey Thompkins, Tristan Thompson, Tyler Honeycutt

The easy lightning rods here will be less accomplished college players like Klay Thompson, Tobias Harris, and Tyler Honeycutt. But if mock drafts are in any way indicative of league consensus (I believe the three used are), their decisions to go are good. Terrence Jones, a player whose tweener label will likely grow next year, is definitely risking something by staying, especially considering he was viewed as a consensus lottery pick. 

NEED TO THINK (2 out of 3 1st rounders): Darius Morris, Jeremy Tyler, Jordan Williams, Shelvin Mack

I'd guess that 3 out of 4 are taking calculated risks, given uncertainty around next year (team performance, coach, etc.). The apparent head-scratcher is Morris, but his progress and potential could make him a late 1st round steal.

TAKING A RISK (1 out of 3 1st rounders): Josh Selby, Lucas Nogueira, Reggie Jackson, Travis Leslie

Honestly, nothing that crazy here. Most people know Selby's story. The one thing I would note: he may prove people wrong, but Travis Leslie's an interesting case. Usually, a prospect with his athleticism is the kind of guy NBA GM's get excited about. If in 3 years of playing college basketball, there isn't that much buzz about his potential, he could have a very tough professional road.

BAD DECISION (not a 1st rounder): Everybody else

This is a group that's clearly determined to go pro, despite any other feedback they got. For guys like Scotty Hopson, who definitely has pro-level talent, an unsettled situation next year isn't the best place to raise his stock, especially as a rising senior. But for guys like Jereme Richmond, Cory Joseph, and Malcolm Lee, this is a very tough decision to understand solely based on draft stock.  

Mock Draft Links Used:
http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2011/
http://www.nbadraft.net/2011mock_draft
http://hoopshype.com/draft.htm

Taking the Money: Why and When A Player Enters the NBA Draft Early

Every year around this time, the NBA draft early entry list is finalized, and a small army of college basketball analysts wax poetic about the horrible decisions young athletes are making by trading 1-3 years of eligibility for their chance at an NBA career. The odds of being drafted in the 1st round are so low, they say. Staying in college to hone your craft gives you a better shot at making it, they say. While I can't begin to describe how hypocritical the 2nd sentiment is (how many times do college coaches dump on their power forwards and centers trying to face up because "they care too much about what scouts think?"), the first is pretty misleading too.

The NBA draft, like most drafts, are not about what players do at their current level of the sport, but what they could do at the highest level. And over the last 5 years (the one-and-done rule period), the drafting pattern is plain and simple. Most freshmen who are drafted are lottery picks or 1st rounders, and most seniors who get picked are 2nd rounders. Is this focus on potential over production valid? Well, based on NBA success, the list of under-drafted seniors is pretty short (Wes Matthews), but almost every year there's an under-drafted early entry (DeAndre Jordan, Rudy Gay, Rajon Rondo).

The composition of drafts is only half the story, though. What about all those early entry kids who messed up by listening to the wrong people, and shortchanged themselves? Well, looking at the official early entry candidates who stayed in the last 5 drafts, it looks like this...

Underclassmen making bad decisions? Please. In the last 5 years, 88% of freshmen early entries drafted, 76% in the 1st round, with guaranteed contracts. 76% of sophomore early entries drafted, 58% in the 1st round. Overall, 71% of early entries are getting drafted, and 49% in the 1st round.

So, what advice is there to kids weighing the early entry deadline? There's something important to be gained from looking at the underclassmen who declared early, and weren't drafted.

Undrafted Freshmen: Davon Jefferson, JaJuan Robinson, Nate Miles, Robert Earl Johnson, Tommy Mason-Griffin

Robinson and Johnson were definitively off the NBA radar when they declared. Jefferson, Mason-Griffin, and Nate Miles were all flagged for varying levels of issues after their freshman years (work ethic, chemistry, and recruiting violations, respectively).

Undrafted Sophomores: Courtney Fortson, Dar Tucker, Darius Washington Jr., David Johnson, Dee Bost, Derek Burditt, Donald Jeffes, Keith Brumbaugh, Kellen Lee, Samardo Samuels, Sylven Landesberg, Tedric Hill, Terrence Roderick

Of this group, Washington, Samuels, and Landesberg were truly being evaluated as NBA prospects ahead of the draft. In total, of the 18 undrafted underclassmen, you could argue that only 5 harbored legitimate hopes of being drafted at all, if not in the 1st round. Removing the truly irrational draft entrants, the data is striking: 95% of early entry freshmen were drafted (82% 1st rounders), and 93% of early entry sophomores were drafted (71% 1st rounders). That's 81% of those early entrants drafted, 66% in the 1st round. Doesn't seem like anybody mentions that Tristan Thompson has a 95% chance of being drafted, and an 80% chance of being a 1st rounder, does it?

For the prospect considering early entry, if they've consistently seen their names on the mock drafts of DraftExpress, NBADraft.net, and HoopsHype all season, they need to seriously consider leaving school to play in the NBA. And if most mocks have a player in the lottery, I'd advise against turning down the chance to earn more money in 3 years than most college graduates earn in a lifetime. College basketball analysts love to rail against a DeAndre Jordan or B.J. Mullens leaving early and falling in the draft. What they always fail to mention is the opportunity for life-changing money that guys like Willie Warren and Devin Ebanks gave up by going back to school for one more year, and having scouts fall out of love with their potential.

This decision, of course, has to be made with the perspective of a likely NBA lockout. No one really knows what a new collective bargaining agreement will bring for rookie salaries, guarantees, when players actually play, when players actually get paid, etc. Is that a reason to stay in college, or a reason that a record 56 underclassmen declared for this year's NFL draft with a similar lockout looming? I lean toward the latter.