Preseason View of the 2013 Draft Class

(Preseason View of the 2012 Draft Class)

Now that Midnight Madness has officially started the college basketball season, it's as good a time as any to look at those prospects already high on the radar screens of the NBA. This is, by no means, an exact science... of the 9 consensus lottery picks on the two noted mock drafts last year, 6 were actually drafted in the lottery. But, this could still help identify teams to watch during the season (example: last year's list convinced me to watch more Washington games than planned).

 

TIER 1: LOTTERY PICKS (8 Consensus, 15 Total)

Last Year: 13 Players, 11 Declared, 11 Drafted, 10 1st Rounders, 7 Lottery Picks 

 

The top 4 appear to be pretty set in stone, and Kentucky has three prospects as consensus lottery, versus two last year (hard to believe the metoric rise of MKG in twelve months as far as draft boards were concerned). As always, the fall risks always appear to be the guys that came back. A year ago Perry Jones and Jared Sullinger were considered lottery locks as returning sophomores. The only two who could be on the same path are Cody Zeller and James McAdoo, with McAdoo the bigger fall risk of the two.

 

 





TIER 2: 1ST ROUND CONSIDERATION (10 Consensus, 28 Total)
Last year: 21 Players, 11 Declared, 11 Drafted, 6 1st Rounders, 3 Lottery

There's a lot more debate at the bottom of the 1st round than last year, but it's so dependent on who declares and who doesn't, it's hard to nail any of these down. The most intriguing guys to start the year should be Austin, the Baylor freshman, followed by the eerily-similar-to-Jeff-Green Otto Porter at Georgetown. Outside of that, there's the usual collection of untapped raw potential (Austin, Mbakwe, Leslie, Dieng, Smith), older players with perceived lower ceilings (McCollum, Plumlee, McDermott), and some best guesses.

The best part about this? Guys like Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Dion Waiters, Damian Lillard, and Meyers Leonard. Guys that weren't in either group last year, all lottery picks in June. As a whole, there's a lot we think we know, and even more that we don't know.