Talking Yourself Into Lance Stephenson

As a Hornets fan that pinned a lot of hope on signing Gordon Hayward, the last week has seen the team go in a decidedly different direction. The knee-jerk reaction to signing Lance Stephenson involves questions about conduct and maturity, both on and off the court. But is there a way to talk yourself into the signing?

1. LANCE STEPHENSON IS A GOOD PLAY-MAKER.

NBA Rank Among Non-Point Guards: #10 (minimum 41 games played)

During the 2013-2014 regular season, Stephenson averaged 4.6 assists per game. Aside from the raw number being impressive, he generated a good amount of "assist opportunities" (passes that would have been assists had teammates made their shots), particularly for a non-point guard. In fact, only nine players did better last year (Lebron James, James Harden, Gordon Hayward, Monta Ellis, Joakim Noah, Kevin Durant, Nic Batum, Tyreke Evans, and Dwyane Wade). 

2. LANCE STEPHENSON DOES NOT NEED TO DOMINATE THE BALL.

NBA Rank Among Non Point Guards: #11 (minimum 41 games played)

Despite the fact that Indiana operated with Lance as a de facto point guard at times, it turns out that Lance did not dominate the ball while on the floor. His time of possession fits nicely with the role of a secondary playmaker, coming in lower than a host of creators from the wing (Lebron James, James Harden, Monta Ellis, Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Durant, Gordon Hayward, Tyreke Evans, Paul George, Dwyane Wade). This bodes potentially well for his ability to mesh with a (typically) ball dominant point guard in Kemba Walker.

3. LANCE STEPHENSON IS A VERY GOOD REBOUNDER.

NBA Rank Among Non Big Men: #4 (minimum 41 games played)

There's no denying Stephenson's raw rebounding numbers this season. While it's fair to point out that this is one area of rumored stat-hunting (aka stealing rebounds from teammates), the fact is that he did grab a lot of "uncontested" rebounds (no opponent in the area). But he actually grabbed a comparable amount (72.3% of total rebounds) to Lebron James (75.2%) and Kevin Durant (77.8%). It's certainly possible that he tended to fight Pacers for rebounds more than the other team, but his overall motor for rebounding, particularly at the guard/forward spot, cannot be denied.

4. LANCE STEPHENSON IS A COMPARABLE SHOOTER TO OTHER NOTABLE SHOOTING GUARDS.

There are several things to note for Lance as a scorer, particularly with respect to other notable 2's/3's in the league. First, He was a strong finisher in the restricted area, a result of both drives and offensive rebounding. While his mid-range efficiency leaves something to be desired, it's the corner 3 numbers that are the most encouraging from a Hornets perspective.

Stephenson shot better from the corners than Josh McRoberts (48% versus 30%) on twice as many attempts per game. He shot better than Anthony Tolliver (39%), Chris Douglas-Roberts (45%), and Gary Neal (38%). While he clearly had a preference in location (right corner), Big Al has a preferred side of the floor too. There's enough here to work with as far as spacing the floor off the ball.

5. LANCE STEPHENSON IS A LEGITIMATE TWO WAY PLAYER.

As much as I am a fan of Gordon Hayward, even I can't dispute that his ability to defend well was largely dependent on using his height as an oversized shooting guard. There is no such debate about Stephenson. He's a plus defender at both wing positions, and is capable of hounding opposing wing players with length, strength, quickness, and motor. And in crunch time, he does not have to be a part of any offense/defense substitutions.

CONCLUSION

Looking at what Stephenson brought to the court last year, it's hard not to appreciate his overall talent level. There just aren't a lot of young two guards in the league that possess his package of skills. The problem with Lance, particularly the last six months, is that all sentences about his outlook start with the word "if." There are examples of talented guys in the league who realized their potential (Zach Randolph, Amare Stoudemire, Allen Iverson) despite conduct/character concerns, and maybe Stephenson is one of those guys. As a Hornets fan, I hope he is. But I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a little worried.

(all stats from www.nba.com)

A Bobcats Plan for the 2014 Draft (And Beyond)

2011 Edition
2012 Edition
2013 Edition

As hard as it is to believe, the once-interminable Bobcats rebuild is over. The 2014-2015 Hornets boast the following attributes:

• 43 regular season wins last year
• an All-NBA player on the roster (Al Jefferson)
• cap space ($41mm of committed contracts before addressing Josh McRoberts, Jeff Taylor, and the backup point guard situation)

So, with that out of the way, let's delve into the most optimistic post in the history of this blog regarding the Bobcats/Hornets. The roster looks like this as currently constituted:

• Point Guard: Kemba Walker, TBD
• Shooting Guard: Gary Neal, Gerald Henderson
• Small Forward: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Jeff Taylor
• Power Forward: Josh McRoberts, Cody Zeller
• Center: Al Jefferson, Brendan Haywood
• Other: Bismack Biyombo, TBD, TBD, TBD, TBD

The 2014-2015 Hornets have a few glaring issues to address. First, a crunch time lineup that can space the floor for Big Al. There's a reason that two midseason additions (Gary Neal, Chris Douglas-Roberts) played significant minutes in a playoff series. Second, a reliable backup big that can work effectively out of the low post. Third, a reliable backup point guard. Fourth, continuing to build depth and talent. Having one All-NBA player doesn't punch an automatic ticket to the 2nd round of the playoffs (ask the T-Wolves). So, what should the Hornets target in the draft?

There are a few players I've talked about at the top of the draft, and if they were to unexpectedly fall, you'd have to take them. But in the event that it doesn't happen...

DRAFT NIK STAUSKAS AT #9.

He's a natural shooter off a catch-and-shoot or off-the-dribble. He has natural instincts working as the ball-handler in pick-and-rolls, and has the ability to get to the rim and either finish or get fouled, especially when attacking closeouts. His wingspan and strength probably won't allow him to be more than an average individual defender, but he gives you everything you'd want on offense from a shooting guard. I'm so bullish on Stauskas, I think he has the potential to sneak into an All-Star game at some point, and at the very least, he's a skilled basketball player that will always have a place on an NBA roster.

Upside Picks If They Fall (in order of preference): Joel Embiid, Julius Randle, Andrew Wiggins, Dante Exum, Noah Vonleh, Aaron Gordon

The guys I didn't mention (Jabari Parker, Marcus Smart) are guys I honestly would not draft at #9. I legitimately prefer the talent/fit combo that Stauskas brings over both of those guys. If none of those guys are available, here are other directions I would go...

Other Fit Picks (in order of preference): Jusuf Nurkic, Zach LaVine, trade down

DRAFT JOHNNY O'BRYANT AT #24.

Good low post scoring instincts in a legit power forward body. Conditioning should be a fixable issue given the progress he's already made since entering college, and Al could be the perfect mentor to help him realize is still-impressive potential. He could be the backup low post scoring threat that the Hornets desperately need, and a nice frontcourt complement to Cody Zeller.

Other Picks (in order of preference): Cleanthony Early, K.J. McDaniels, Mitch McGary, Walter Tavares, Russ Smith

DRAFT RUSS SMITH AT #45.

Smith's athletic ability and penchant for clutch performances are known by everyone who watched college basketball. His size might preclude him from performing with starter minutes over 82 games, but unleashed as a two-way terror with the second unit? He could be an incredible complement to our starting unit, and the definition of a "change of pace" coming off the bench.

Other Picks (in order of preference): Spencer Dinwiddie, Joe Harris 

After the draft, the depth chart would like this...

Point Guard: Kemba Walker, Russ Smith

Shooting Guards: Nik Stauskas, Gary Neal

Small Forwards: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Jeff Taylor

Power Forwards: Josh McRoberts, Johnny O'Bryant

Centers: Al Jefferson, Cody Zeller

Bench: Gerald Henderson, Jeff Taylor, Bismack Biyombo

I like that roster's ability to space the floor, play both sides of the ball, and while there isn't a good answer to "what if Al Jefferson gets hurt," no team really has a good answer for replacing an All-NBA player. Besides, the team can still go get Gordon Hayward with a 4 yr, $50mm offer sheet when free agency starts.

A Bobcats Plan For The 2013 Draft (and Beyond)

(2011 Edition)
(2012 Edition)

The Bobcats are entering Year 3 of their rebuild. That's right, year 3. Aside from telegraphing a name change, and setting the record for regular season futility, the roster now sports some younger players. A quick look at the current roster shows eight players under contract, and $41mm of salary committed for next year before this year's 1st round draft pick and a decision on Gerald Henderson's free agency (among others).

As far as building a championship contender, the team is not that close. The roster has starter/rotation level players (Walker, Sessions, Biyombo, Henderson) as well as a few potential rotation guys (Taylor, Kidd-Gilchrist, McRoberts). However, every NBA champion of the last 25 years had at least one All-NBA player (1st or 2nd team). Take a look at the 2013 All-NBA teams:

Point Guards: Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook, Tony Parker (no Derrick Rose, Rajon Rondo)
Shooting Guards: Kobe Bryant, James Harden, Dwyane Wade
Forwards: Lebron James, Kevin Durant, Carmelo Anthony, Blake Griffin, David Lee, Paul George (no Kevin Love)
Centers: Tim Duncan, Marc Gasol, Dwight Howard (no Andrew Bynum)

It's important to remember that, aside from this list, there's quite a few up-and-coming youngsters that will compete for these spots. So, while finding an All-NBA talent somewhere in this year's draft is not impossible, it will take some conviction. And while these predictions are as likely to be wrong as anyone's on the Internet, consider: based on this blog's draft recommendations the last two years (2011 and 2012), the Bobcats last five draft picks would have been Kawhi Leonard, Kemba Walker, Jeremy Tyler, Andre Drummond, and Quincy Miller. That roster might look a little better than the current one.

WHAT'S THE PLAN?

Acquiring young talent should remain at the top of the Bobcats' priority list, and there are a few intriguing pieces that could be had. Both Thomas Robinson and Derrick Williams have been made available for the right price, and either player still has potential upside at the power forward spot worth exploring. Outside of such deals for young guys with rookie deals, free agent acquisitions would probably lean towards over-paying, given the current playoff prospects of the team. With all that in mind, the Bobcats should...

TRADE THE #4 PICK TO MINNESOTA FOR DERRICK WILLIAMS AND PICKS #9 AND #26.

Minnesota is looking to get Victor Oladipo in this year's draft. However, it's important to note that while the Bobcats and Timberwolves could have the same opinion of him, his value his higher within Minnesota's team context. Playing alongside Rubio, Love, and probably Pekovic, Oladipo could be unleashed as a defensive stopper, transition monster, and part-time offensive creator. Charlotte would need him to bear more responsibility on offense, and that may not be his game. Assuming that this deal is really there to be had, the Bobcats could still go after an All-NBA talent at #9, while buying low on Williams. And, with the  #9 pick, the Bobcats should...

DRAFT MICHAEL CARTER-WILLIAMS. 

As far as potential All-NBA talents, I think he's the best prospect in the class. If the NBA Finals proved anything, it's that consistent play-making threats may be as scarce as consistent three point shooting. MCW can play both guard spots, provide NBA caliber passing from day one, substantially improve the offensive numbers of less skilled teammates in the half-court (Biyombo, MKG), and ignite a far more potent transition attack.

As for playing with Kemba Walker, it could be a very complementary match. MCW played off Brandon Triche at Syracuse, and the tandem alternated bringing the ball up, initiating the offense, and looking to score vs create. Walker is the kind of guard whose scoring instincts could mesh extremely well with Carter-Williams as a co-point guard.

Other Upside picks with All-NBA potential (in order, if available): Shabazz Muhammad, Steven Adams, Anthony Bennett

If those guys are unavailable, then there are still players that could be above-average starters and address an area of need for the Bobcats. Of that group, I'd lean towards Caldwell-Pope, who sports a complete offensive arsenal (including much-needed outside shooting), a good motor, and can contribute across the box score and on defense.

Fit Picks for the Bobcats: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cody Zeller, Ben McLemore, Alex Len

If the proposed trade went through, the #26 pick would also belong to the Bobcats. There a few ways to go in that scenario. Given the Bobcats situation, I would look more for team-oriented players, that have the ability to plug into a specific role quickly. Two seem like good bets, depending if the Bobcats go big or small with their lottery pick:

If they go big: SOLOMON HILL. The Kawhi Leonard comparisons feel lazy given Leonard's NBA Finals performance, but before his transcendant 2013 playoffs, Kawhi and Hill offered somewhat similar profiles. Hill brings 3 point shooting, great energy with regard to defense and rebounding, and a good understanding of fitting into a role within a team context. I like his potential as a glue guy small forward, and likely wouldn't take away from the offensive or defensive side of the floor. How often can that be said about a guy near the end of the 1st round?

If they go small: MIKE MUSCALA. He's a player with defined NBA attributes (NBA size and skills at the 4 or 5), who looks like a rotational player at minimum, and a very versatile big at best (stretch 4 shooting with the low post game to punish switches in the pick and roll, competent and developed in all other facets of the game). He would be a nice complement to Biyombo on both ends of the floor, particularly on offense.

Other picks (in order, if available): Ricky Ledo, Jackie Carmichael, C.J. Leslie, Lucas Noguiera

Assuming these moves were made, the Bobcats roster could look like:

Point Guard: Kemba Walker, Ramon Sessions
Shooting Guard: Michael Carter-Williams, Gerald Henderson, Jeff Taylor
Small Forward: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Solomon Hill
Bigs: Bismack Biyombo, Derrick Williams, Byron Mullens, Josh McRoberts, Brendan Haywood

That's a crunch time lineup with two play-makers, explosive athleticism at every position, poor floor spacing, and youthful inexperience. It's debatable whether anyone on this theoretical team would have All-NBA potential (I'd say MCW does), but it has significantly more potential than last year's roster. Someday the Bobcats have to turn potential into playoff wins, but that's not today... it's 2015.

Bobcats Quarterly Update: Bismack Biyombo

 As everyone in the Bobcats organization has either implied or just said out loud, this year is less about wins and losses and more about development. 20 40 or so games in, there are some interesting things that you can already see (via stats from Hoopdata).

BIYOMBO HAS NOT IMPROVED AS A SCORER

• Despite a slight uptick in minutes per game (23.1 to 25), Biyombo's overall field goal attempts have decreased this season, and remains below the average power forward playing 20+ minutes (9.4 attempts per game).
• While free throw attempts are down a little, his percentage (53.9%) is up from last year.
• Attempts at the rim have increased, but his field goal percentage has dropped to 55%. The league average is 67%.
• Attempts from 10-15 feet have dropped significantly, and he may not have made one this season (effectively 0%), versus a league average of 41% from that range.
• Attempts from 16-23 feet have also dropped, and his field goal percentage has also dropped dramatically (to 11%), versus a league average of 39%.

BIYOMBO'S DEFENSE HAS IMPROVED MARGINALLY

• Offensive rebound rate has improved to 10.1, better than the league average for power forwards playing 20+ minutes (9.0).
• Defensive rebound rate has decreased slightly, but remains above the league average (19.8).
• Total rebound rate has improved to 15.2, versus the group's league average of 14.4.
• Blocks per game remain well above the league average (0.86), although they have decreased despite the increase in minutes.

CONCLUSION

The stats back up what most people have seen with their eyes: Biyombo is still generally a minus player on offense, and an above average player on defense. As valuable as a defensive force could be, a player with little to contribute on one end of the floor can sometimes hurt a team as much as he helps. Thankfully, at this point, that doesn't seem to be the case: per NBA.com's plus/minus numbers, most of the Bobcats' most productive lineups seem to involve Biyombo.

Hopefully, as the season of development continues, Biyombo's offensive education remains a priority. From Year 1 to Year 2, Biyombo's offensive opportunities have both decreased and become less efficient. While Dunlap's emphasis on "kill spots" in the offense likely has a lot to do with this, it's important to see whether Biyombo's offensive game can (or should) branch out to more spots on the floor.

Could the '11-'12 Wildcats Beat the '11-'12 Bobcats?

During the 2011-2012 basketball season, the success of the national champion Kentucky Wildcats and the historic futility of the Charlotte Bobcats prompted a common question: since Kentucky's team was potentially stocked with NBA talent, could it beat an NBA team in a game?

There were a variety of responses to the question. Some were pretty aggressive, some spoke theoretically about a one-game scenario, while others shaded in that direction. Of course,Charles Barkley also sided with UK,  but then again, this is the same guy who said Yao Ming wouldn't score 19 in his rookie year (with hilarious consequences).

The fun in the question is that there is no credible way to answer the question, because who knows what Kentucky players would do against professional competition? Well, now that those Kentucky kids are almost halfway through their first season against NBA competition, how are they doing?

Marquis Teague. Despite losing Derrick Rose and CJ Watson from last year's squad, Teague has been unable to unseat journeyman veterans like Nate Robinson and Kirk Hinrich at the PG spot. He's playing 7.0 minutes per game, shooting 36.7% from the floor (despite taking virtually no threes), 62.5% from the FT line, and sports a PER of 5.83 (remember, the average NBA player scores a 15). Current NBA Status: FRINGE ROTATION PLAYER.

Doron Lamb. Lamb has averaged 12 minutes per game for the Bucks, shooting 34.7% from the floor (including 25% from three despite his reputed shooting prowess), netting a PER of 3.27 (that's worse than Cory Higgins last year: 4.17 ). Also, Lamb has been sent to the D-League. Current NBA Status: OUT OF THE LEAGUE.

Darius Miller. Miller has averaged 14 minutes per game for the Hornets, mixing decent 3 point shooting (33%) with a propensity to foul (1.9 per game), limiting his effectiveness as a "3 and D" rotational player (6.04 PER). Miller was also recently been assigned to the D-League by a rebuilding team. Current NBA Status: OUT OF THE LEAGUE.

Terrence Jones. Jones has averaged 8.3 minutes per game, contributing some poor shooting (38.2% overall, 25% from three) with nice production across the stat sheet (rebounds, assists, blocks, steals) given his limited minutes. He has also, unfortunately, been sent to the D-League. Current NBA Status: OUT OF THE LEAGUE.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Despite a strong start to the season, MKG has settled into more pedestrian production: 10.2 points on 47.9% shooting, 6.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.1 blocks, 0.7 steals, along with a few turnovers and fouls in 27 minutes per game. The result? A PER of 15.8, and very few fourth quarter minutes for the #2 pick, who plays for arguably the worst team in the NBA. Current NBA Status: STARTER.

Anthony Davis. The preseason NBA Rookie of the Year has had the most impact of this Kentucky class, producing 13.2 points, 8 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks in 29.3 minutes per game (PER of 20.84). He's also seen his minutes per game decrease in every month, most notably averaging only 23 minutes per game during the team's recent 6-1 stretch (nearly half the team's total wins this season). Current NBA Status: STARTER.

At this point, there are only two players from that team that are contributing average production to an NBA team, while the rest are largely off the NBA radar. This in no way says anything about their eventual pro potential; I happen to think at least three will be productive professional players (though not stars). But, there is a difference between playing college basketball and playing in the NBA, no matter what the perception of that may be. That difference means that a college team, no matter how accomplished and talented, doesn't have much hope against a team of NBA players.

Will any of this change the mind of casual basketball fans if another "college super-team" emerges in the next decade? Absolutely not. It's the same reason people casually say that Alabama's football team could beat the Jacksonville Jaguars. It doesn't have to be remotely accurate, it's just fun to talk about, and there's nothing wrong with that. Still, someone should tell Larry Brown that the Hornets have to finish on a 37-5 streak in order to justify his pre-draft hype.

Bobcats Quarterly Update: Playing the Young Guys

 As everyone in the Bobcats organization has either implied or just said out loud, this year is less about wins and losses and more about development. 20 or so games in, there are some interesting things that you can already see.

THE BOBCATS ARE LETTING THE YOUNG GUYS PLAY

The six major young players are getting some serious run. Of the possible minutes each player could play, all but Henderson and Biyombo are playing more than 24 minutes in the games they're healthy enough to play. Henderson is still coming back from injury. Biyombo's playing time seems a little more problematic, but he's already trending higher (over 31 minutes per game) in December. If that doesn't seem significant, consider: 5% of possible minutes played is a little over two minutes a game. Over an 82 game season, that's 197 extra minutes, or FOUR full games of extra court time.

 

Other notes on playing the young guys:

• Per 82games.com, 14 of the Bobcats' top 20 lineups feature at least three of the young guys. 6 of those lineups feature at least four. Not only are they getting to play individually, they are playing together.
• Against the Clippers, the Bobcats started Walker, Taylor, MKG, Mullens, and Biyombo. Chris Paul, one of their opponents, had more than double the career starts and minutes played of the Bobcats' entire starting lineup. The lack of experience is real, and will continue to manifest in close games despite the early wins in tight games.
• As much as it may frustrate to watch the late game turnovers and inefficient offense, it doesn't say a lot about what these players will eventually be able to do. Kevin Durant shot 43% from the field (29% from three) as a rookie. Tony Parker started as a rookie, but as a 2nd year player routinely gave way to Speedy Claxton during crunch time in 2003. These guys aren't close to finished products yet. 

Bobcats Quarterly Update: Kemba Walker

As everyone in the Bobcats organization has either implied or just said out loud, this year is less about wins and losses and more about development. 20 or so games in, there are some interesting things that you can already see.

KEMBA WALKER IS A BETTER SCORER THAN LAST YEAR

As previously covered here, the rookie year of Kemba Walker raised more questions than it answered. The raw averages for Walker (18 ppg, 6 apg, 2 spg) look pretty good, but how is he doing it given the struggles we saw shooting last year? Here's a brief look (via Hoopdata):

• Kemba is taking nearly 5 free throws per game, an additional 1.6 on average. That's more than noted in-the-paint point guards like Tony Parker and Ty Lawson.
• At the rim attempts have gone up... a lot. As in, nearly doubled. While he's not as efficient as the best at his position (Parker, Lawson, and Kyrie Irving are all 60%+ on shots at the rim), it's his most efficient shot, and he's taking it more.
• While his attempts from 16-23 feet haven't increased, his efficiency has improved significantly. At 47%, he's close to or better than more polished mid-range shooters like Chris Paul, Steph Curry, Deron Williams, and Jose Calderon in this young season.

While 20 games is an extremely small sample size, the beginning of the season has certainly seen a Kemba Walker more than capable of scoring efficiently with higher usage. Combine that with an improved assist-turnover ratio, and the season has started to yield confirmation that he can more than handle the starting gig as an NBA point guard.


Assessing the Bobcats' Pieces: Bismack Biyombo (2012-2013)

As the Bobcats continue their rebuilding process, the key to achieving success will be building a roster of players capable of major contributions on a playoff team. As the 2012-2013 season approaches, it's important to take stock of the key players on the team today, and whether they do (or will) fit that bill.

Bismack Biyombo was a prospect Rich Cho had strong feelings about dating back to his Portland days. The trade-up in the 2011 draft to take him (Detroit was reportedly poised to select him at #8) only reinforced the enthusiasm for him as a player. His physical attributes are so rare, and his relative lack of development rarer still, that a comparable group of players doesn't really jump out. But, there are two recent NBA players that may offer the right context for his play last season: Serge Ibaka and Derrick Favors.

(A big pre-emptive shout-out to www.hoopdata.com, which appears to be some kind of basketball nerd Xanadu. The data cited below comes from their fantastic site.)

Rebounding and Defense

While the total rebound numbers look pretty good, it's better to look at rebound rate to assess the quality of that number. Biyombo's defensive rebound rate is comparable to Favors and Ibaka, but his offensive rebound rate is significantly lower than his peers, and makes his total rebound rate the worst of the three. This is a surprising result given Biyombo's overall motor and intensity, and hopefully improves immediately in his 2nd season.

As for blocks, they are not a singular assessment of a player's defensive ability, but they are a big part of what Biyombo brings to the table. It's encouraging to see that he blocked shots more frequently (and fouled less frequently) than the others. As the more subtle parts of his defensive game develop (rotations, pick-and-roll responsibilities, post defense), his potential as a game-changing defender will become more evident.

Scoring The Ball

As much as people like to compare Biyombo to Ibaka, the comparison breaks down here. The high at-the-rim field goal percentages are nice, but largely expected given the caliber of athletes in this group. However, Biyombo's deficiencies to Ibaka in field goal percentage from 3-9 feet (23%) and 10-15 feet (30%) highlight the work ahead in terms of developing consistent low post offense, touch shots in the paint, and perhaps a face-up jumper. Admittedly, the stat comparisons aren't perfect given the context: Bismack played on the worst team in NBA history, while Ibaka was the 4th or 5th option on a playoff team featuring two All-Stars and the league's leading scorer. Still, it's naive to think there isn't a long way to go here.

Derrick Favors' inclusion is probably important at this point. He played in some similarly dysfunctional contexts as a rookie, and has a great work ethic, loads of athletic ability, and the benefit of youth to explain his skill level. However, it's hard to see an immediate jump from Year 1 to Year 2:

Now, it's debatable whether the biggest jump for players happens in Year 2 or Year 3. There is some level of improvement expected, and it might make sense to monitor his play going forward, as a potential signpost for Biyombo's development.

Verdict

Bismack's rookie year provided some impressive glimpses into the player he could be one day, from a double-double against Dwight Howard to securing one of the seven Bobcats wins last year. His age and commitment to the game increase the likelihood that he'll harness his impressive physical gifts. But, as it stands today, his limited offensive ability doesn't allow a valid comparison to Serge Ibaka. And it's hard to find an example of a player whose offensive repertoire started at this level and blossomed into league-average or better. Unless something remarkable happens during this season, I suspect this debate will be re-kindled in about a year's time.

Assessing the Bobcats' Pieces: Kemba Walker (2012-2013)

As the Bobcats continue their rebuilding process, the key to achieving success will be building a roster of players capable of major contributions on a playoff team. As the 2012-2013 season approaches, it's important to take stock of the key players on the team today, and whether they do (or will) fit that bill.

Kemba Walker came to the Bobcats on draft night with a decent amount of fanfare. Coming off a Player of the Year caliber season, and a national championship at UConn, his transition to the NBA as a 21 year old rookie might have seemed easier than other draftees. However, as the worst season in NBA history progressed, questions inevitably surfaced as to whether or not Walker was a key reason for the futility. So, with that in mind, it seems reasonable to compare his rookie season to recent rookie point guards that were 6-1 in height, and see what that says about his future NBA prospects.

Facilitating the Offense

It goes without saying, the Bobcats were one of the worst offenses in NBA history by several metrics. However, it's difficult to point to Walker as the main cause. Kemba Walker's rookie assist per game numbers (4.4) are better than Mike Conley, Rajon Rondo, and Ty Lawson. Not only that, Walker's assist-to-turnover ratio (2.43) is better than those three as well. All three of those guys are at least above-average NBA starters, and even on the worst team in NBA history, Walker fared better than they did as rookies on that front.

Scoring the Ball

As a habit, I continue to look at points per shot (total points versus total FGA and FTA) to measure player efficiency scoring the ball. While Walker's raw points per game appear average, he was an inefficient scorer; only Rondo was worse. How did this happen? Walker was essentially middle of the pack shooting free throws and threes. On two point attempts, however, only Brandon Jennings was less efficient as a rookie.

There are several reasons why a 6-1 (listed) point guard would struggle as a rookie on two point attempts.

• NBA defenders are taller, longer, quicker, and smarter than their college counterparts. Thus, scoring one-on-one is more difficult all over the floor.
• NBA defenses are more sophisticated and focused than other levels. The schemes and rotations are often tailored to make an off-the-dribble creator move the ball or take a contested shot.
• Rookies are perceived to get fewer calls than more experienced players on shot attempts, particularly in the paint and near the rim.

As a rookie transitioning to the NBA, that's a significant amount of challenges to overcome. But, those limitations are the same for everyone in this group, and they all face the same height limitations relative to their peers of prototypical PG size. The question is... will it get better?

Looking at the other five rookies on the list who struggled on two point attempts, the answer seems to be yes. Four out of five (Jennings, Augustin, Rondo, Felton) got better on two point attempts from Year 1 to Year 3. Also, those four also shot a higher number of free throw attempts per game. (The fifth player, Jonny Flynn, had a significant decrease in minutes in Year 3, along with being traded).

Verdict

Kemba Walker's rookie year has not offered much insight into the kind of player he will be in two years. An optimist could look at Rondo's statistical leap as a blueprint (unlikely, since the Bobcats didn't add Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen in the offseason). A pessimist could say that Walker's output singlehandedly keeps the Bobcats from ever making the playoffs (also unlikely, since Brandon Jennings put up comparable efficiency and assist-turnover numbers while leading his team to the playoffs in 2009-2010).

When I look at the other guys on the list, I see three guys (Paul, Rondo, Lawson) whose games will be difficult to emulate. I also see four guys who started for playoff teams (Nelson, Conley, Jennings, Felton) that Walker could equal and possibly surpass. Like every young player, there are anecdotal things that Walker could improve (using the roll man better on pick-and-rolls, running offense earlier in the shot clock). But, as with everything involving the Bobcats, it's going to take a while before we know the answer. I, for one, am still a believer.

2012 Bobcats Draft Strategy

Last Year's NBA Draft Strategy

The NBA draft is almost here. That means it's time to sum up all the college tape, combine measurements, and pre-draft workouts, and pick players. Given the Bobcats' current (and potential) picks, and since NBA GM's will face the repercussions of their picks for years, it's only fair to put up some picks against theirs.

#2 Pick (or #4 Pick)
IDEAL PICK: ANDRE DRUMMOND.
I would be happy with either Drummond or Robinson. Reasonable minds can certainly differ on the risk-reward of each guy, and what the Bobcats need to rebuild their team as of today. I lean slightly towards Drummond because of overall potential, and a more favorable view of his work ethic and demeanor than others. Having said that, I'd have no problems with Robinson, I think they both have legitimate chances at being All-NBA level performers. The only guy who probably shouldn't by Charlotte specifically is Barnes, not because of ability, but because of the obstacles inherent in another UNC player playing in Charlotte.

Other Acceptable Picks (in order of preference): Thomas Robinson, Harrison Barnes, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

#24 (assuming Cleveland trade goes through)
IDEAL PICK: QUINCY MILLER
My fondness for Miller has been documented previously, and think the tremendous upside warrants a selection. Jeff Taylor's athleticism, motor, and intangibles translate to a borderline starter at SF (strong defense at 2 or 3, 3 point shooting, transition finishing) with a floor of rotation player. I can see both being good picks, but I'd roll the dice with Quincy, and hope that year 2 of his ACL recovery reveals the lottery talent most believe is lurking in that body.

Other Acceptable Picks (in order of preference): Jeff Taylor, Evan Fournier, trading for a 1st rounder next year

#31
IDEAL PICK: TONY WROTEN.
First off, if any of the previous three guys are still available, take them here immediately. But, if they're not... not many 6-5, athletic freshmen point guards last this long in the draft. There are certainly reasons for that: bad shooting stroke, difficulty driving and finishing to the right, defensive lapses, etc. This is more of an upside pick (Barton a little less so), but a big point guard with his natural abilities would be a great asset if harnessed correctly. And, to be honest, I'd rather roll the dice with either Wroten or Barton than take a swing with the plethora of undersized college 2 guards that are certain to be available (John Jenkins, Doron Lamb, Kim English)

Other Acceptable Picks (in order of preference): Will Barton, Kyle O'Quinn

A final thought: looking at each of the three picks above, two common themes emerge: positional versatility and significant upside. The Bobcats shouldn't be going anywhere in the next 1-2 years, and the long term competitiveness of the franchise doesn't need to be undermined for prospects more ready to contribute tomorrow. All three of the 2nd place picks (Robinson, Taylor, Barton) are a trade-off of ceiling versus bust potential. Given the state of the Bobcats roster, and the talent available at these spots, these picks seem like reasonable risks to take.

How Odd is the Mike Dunlap Hire?

The Charlotte Bobcats have hired Mike Dunlap as their head coach. The decision is surprising for multiple reasons:

• he was not known to be among the initial candidates for the job (a list that included Patrick Ewing, Jerry Sloan, etc.) 
• he was not known to be among the finalists for the job (Brian Shaw, Quin Snyder)
• the majority of NBA fans do not know who he is

Aside from the initial shock factor, there are several gut reactions/reasonable questions running through the mind of Bobcats fans.

Gut Reaction: "This is a crazy hire. He has no experience."
Reasonable Question: "How does Dunlap's experience compare to other recent NBA hires?"

The majority of NBA coaches hired are re-treads, guys who have already been head coaches somewhere. In fact, 19 of the 29 current head coaches in the league had prior experience as head coach of an NBA team. (Incidentally, most coaches get fired because they weren't doing well: Randy Wittman's prior head coaching experience included a 0.32 win pct in over 300 games before getting hired to coach the Wizards).

Nine other NBA head coaches had NBA assistant coach as their best relevant experience. Of those guys, experience ranges from 10+ years (Tom Thibodeau, Larry Drew, Spoelstra), 5-10 years (Monty Williams, Scott Brooks, Gregg Popovich, Tyrone Corbin), and less than five years (Kaleb Canales, Mike Dunlap). Bottom line: Dunlap's NBA experience is on the light end of the spectrum, but he's definitely not the least experienced. That honor has to go to either Canales or Mark Jackson (no previous coaching experience at the college or NBA level).

Gut Reaction: "If we weren't getting a veteran coach, we should hire the big-name young talent."
Reasonable Question: "Were the other coaches better candidates?"

The results here are surprising. Quin Snyder's resume (outside of college) included 3 years as a head coach in the D-League, and one year as an NBA assistant as his most recent job. That job experience is identical to the resume of Sam Vincent prior to his ill-fated hiring as the Bobcats' coach.

Brian Shaw has certainly paid his dues as an assistant, and the pedigree of the Phil Jackson coaching tree (Triangle offense included) is certainly tempting. But he's not the only Jackson assistant coach to look for a head coaching gig. Kurt Rambis was also an assistant under Phil for years, and was hired by Minnesota to bring the Triangle offense to the T-Wolves in 2009. After two years and 32 combined wins, he was fired. And failure is not confined to Jackson disciples. John Kuester was an assistant coach who had paid his dues in the league. After the Cavaliers' 2009 season, he was a hot commodity. But after 2 years coaching the Pistons (29 wins per year), he was fired. The hot young coaching prospect does not always pan out immediately, particularly with young teams short on talent.

Gut Reaction: "The Bobcats knocked themselves way off track with this hire."
Reasonable Question: "Does this hire fit within the Bobcats' rebuilding plan?"

No two rebuilding plans are exactly the same. Indiana re-tooled their roster with savvy trades and nice draft picks in the middle of the 1st round. The Clippers swapped part of their young core for a current superstar. The Thunder tore down and rebuilt around a ludicrously young core, patiently waiting for them to grow.

Regardless of which plan is the Bobcats, the overwhelming likelihood is that if the roster looks like it can win, the coach will turn over before the roster. It happened with Jim O'Brien in Indiana (fired), Mike Dunleavy with the Clippers (fired), Lebron's first head coach (Paul Silas - fired), Derrick Rose's (Vinny Del Negro - fired), Chris Paul's (Byron Scott - fired), Dwight Howard's (Brian Hill - fired), Carmelo Anthony's (Jeff Bzdelik - fired)... Incidentally, most of those coaches were fired within 3 years of their respective superstar's arrival, and prior head coaching experience didn't save their jobs.

At the end of the day, here are the facts: Mike Dunlap has been hired for 2 years, with an option for a 3rd. He is light on experience relative to other hired NBA coaches. Regardless of his resume, no one really knows how he's going to do as a head coach, for better or worse. And, in all honesty, who gets added to this roster is probably twice as important as who's coaching them at this point. Bobcats fans shouldn't be wondering if this is the coach that can win with the Bobcats. The real question to think about: 2 years from now, will any coach be able to win with the Bobcats' roster?

The Bobcats Rebuilding Plan: 2012 Edition

The Bobcats are starting year 2 of their rebuilding process. As noted previously, the "tear down to build up" strategy has worked for Memphis and Oklahoma City, only it took 4 years for each team. At the end of year 1, how does the situation look?

• Roster. One year ago, the team had arguably two players that might be starters on a contender: DJ Augustin and Gerald Henderson. Today? The team has four (DJ Augustin, Gerald Henderson, Kemba Walker, and Bismack Biyombo).
• Salary Cap. One year ago, the expiring contracts of note were Boris Diaw ($9 million) and Eduardo Najera ($2.6 million), with $20 million coming in 2013 (Stephen Jackson, Diop, Carroll). Today? The Diaw and Najera contracts are gone, and the same $20 million cap relief is coming in 2013, with the added bonus of moving up 12 spots in the draft (for Biyombo), courtesy of effectively swapping S-Jax for Maggette.

So, year 1 provided some positive steps despite the historically awful record. And, while the #1 pick didn't fall the Bobcats' way, that doesn't knock the plan completely off the rails. With that in mind, here's a few suggested steps that the Bobcats should take in the next two months.

1. Draft Andre Drummond or Thomas Robinson. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I really like both of them as prospects,, and think both offer reasonable risk/reward. I lean slightly toward the former versus the latter (the easy part about being an armchair quarterback: you get to hedge your bets, while the pros have to make a pick. I don't envy you at the moment, Rich Cho).

2. Trade DJ Augustin for the #16 pick. In case you didn't know, the Houston Rockets have some issues at PG. Kyle Lowry wants to be traded, and Goran Dragic is an attractive free agent target. As insurance, they might be persuaded that a one-year insurance policy at point guard is worth their 2nd 1st round pick. So, why should the Bobcats let him go?

First, it gives Kemba Walker the full time point guard role (and rids us of the dreaded 6-foot backcourt). Second, there's a strong possibility that Quincy Miller will be there at #16, a prospect I truly believe has elite NBA scoring potential. He's generally disregarded as a player coming out a year early, but that has little to do with his ultimate NBA value. Definitely worth the pick.

3. Sign Roy Hibbert to an offer sheet. Over the last 4 years, Hibbert has proven to be a durable anchor on the offensive and defensive sides of the floor, in addition to being a great locker room example for younger guys. Market value for his services is probably in the DeAndre Jordan / Marc Gasol range ($11-15 million per year). Signing him to the high end would either 1) convince him to join the Bobcats, or 2) force a conference rival to pay at-or-above market value. (Note: this might work, to a lesser extent, with Brook Lopez).

Why should the Bobcats spend their cap room like this? Well, because they've got a lot of it. Starting with the summer of 2013, the Bobcats will have over $30 million a year in salary cap room with its amnesty still intact (another $8 million if Tyrus is cut loose). Signing Hibbert at a $15 million clip and using the amnesty on Thomas would only use a net $6-7 million of all thet cap room. That means that there'd still be plenty of room to sign a max free agent.
Assuming all this happens, the Bobcats roster would look very different.
PG: Kemba Walker, Cory Higgins
SG: Gerald Henderson, Matt Carroll
SF: Quincy Miller, Corey Maggette
PF: Andre Drummond / Thomas Robinson, Bismack Biyombo
C: Roy Hibbert, BJ Mullens
So, you don't have to be completely depressed that the team lost out on Anthony Davis. The team still needs a teaching head coach and a decent veteran backup at point guard, but there are paths back to relevance that don't involve the 'Brow.

What the Bobcats Might Do with a Top 3 Pick

After watching the Charlotte Bobcats test new levels of futility over the last few weeks, it's more than clear that the "tear down, lotto up" plan is in full effect. No mater what short term pain this causes, people have to remember that for small market teams, this is how rebuilding happens. With that knowledge in hand, we can freely turn our attention to a fairly "deep" 2012 draft, and ponder the possibilities.

The idea of a "deep" draft is really in the eye of the beholder. Your perspective depends on what you need. To that point, take a look at this:

Every NBA champion of the last 20 years, all of them, had at least one All-NBA player that year. Of the 40 teams that played in the NBA Finals, 36 had at least one All-NBA player. In fact, 17 of the last 20 champions had an All-NBA 1st Team player. And of those 17, only Shaq (free agent, trade) and Garnett (trade) didn't arrive on draft night. Success in the NBA begins and ends with drafting a superstar. While I think there are several players on the Bobcats that could one day play key roles on a contending team (Kemba, Gerald, Biyombo), there probably isn't an All-NBA player on the roster at this point. That's the #1 priority for this pick, plain and simple.

With that background, take another look at the 2012 draft. Are there 5-10, maybe even 15 quality rotation players in this draft? Almost certainly. Are there 5 perennial All-Stars in this draft? Maybe, but probably not. Is there an All-NBA player in this draft? Maybe one, possibly two. Tough call to make. But that's what Rod Higgins and Rich Cho have to do. Here's how I'd make the decision, as of February 2012.

1 All-Star Game is a Stretch: Terrence Jones, Bradley Beal, Tyler Zeller, John Henson

Again, this is not an indictment of their ability to play at the next level. It is a guess that there are ceilings for these guys lower than perennial All-Star.

Maybe 1 All-Star Game, But Definitely Not 2: Meyers Leonard, Jeremy Lamb, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

Lamb and Kidd-Gilchrist are both great prospects, and in the right roles, will thrive at the next level. But that success is highly dependent on the situations they arrive in, which is a clear cut below the threshold the Bobcats need.

Could Be All-NBA, But the Odds are Pretty Low: Perry Jones, Jared Sullinger, Anthony Davis

Jones is the easiest one to put here. Sullinger will be a statistically productive pro, no doubt about it, but I'm pretty sure Udonis Haslem is the only 6'8 guy who logged the PF minutes for an NBA champion (next to Shaq and Alonzo Mourning) in the last 20 years. Smarter people than me love Anthony Davis, but I'll say two things about him.

• 4.7 blocks a game is impressive. But Emeka Okafor averaged 4.7 in his last year at UConn, and never developed enough on the other side of the floor to anchor a franchise. Also, six other guys have led college basketball with similar blocks per game numbers since then, and the NBA hasn't heard from any of them. That skill alone doesn't predict NBA success very well.
• Lanky, rangy forward/centers with pogo stick legs and a flash of guard-like skills are not new. How many of these wiry guys end up busts? Anthony Randolph, Brendan Wright, Julian Wright, Andrea Bargnani, Tyrus Thomas, Charlie Villanueva, Channing Frye... that's just the last few years worth of lottery picks. 

If Only I Had the Guts, But I Don't: Quincy Miller

I wish I could justify this with extremely sound analysis and tons of hard data. I can't. But every time I watch him, I see a serious scoring skill-set (ball-handling, shooting, decision making) from a true NBA small forward. I see nice athleticism and explosiveness that will only improve as he continues to heal from a terrible knee injury in high school. And I see a game partially held down by sharing the floor with a top 10 pick (Perry Jones), a grizzled senior (Quincy Acy), and a point guard who rarely sets up other scoring plays (Pierre Jackson). You can't use a top-3 pick on him this year, but I don't think it'll seem so far-fetched in 2013 if he goes back to school.

The Best Chances: Harrison Barnes (#3)

The whole world has jumped on and off this bandwagon several times in 18 months, and I'm no exception. Last year, I was worried that he never blew by people off the dribble. This year, I'm worried that he doesn't play both ways with consistent effort. But let's not forget what is known: he makes jumpshots from all over the floor (not just threes), he's got a slight Brandon Roy-esque craftiness (without the passing) as a scorer, and he's got plenty of practice being "the man," for better or worse.

Thomas Robinson (#2)

Incredible blend of physical and mental tools. The physical tools seem pretty evident (yesterday's Oklahoma game was a nice sampler on offense), and the mental tools show up in rebounding and composure (last Saturday's Iowa State loss). The Kansas offense may not be showing us everything he has to offer, and I like his chances to realize his full potential at the next level. For the naysayers who think that if he didn't do it as a freshman, it's less impressive, that seems logical. It means you pass on sophomore Blake Griffin because freshman Michael Beasley was more impressive, but that's your call.

Andre Drummond (#1)

His path to UConn takes the word "curious" to new levels. You can watch  games and forget he's on the floor, which is terrible. His demeanor, combined with his skills, almost make his successful plays too easy, and thus underwhelming. It appears that he may not love basketball enough to realize his potential. Having said that... Andre Drummond can do just about anything on a basketball court. In terms of size, athleticism, fluidity, court vision, he's arguably in the upper echelon of NBA centers already. There simply is no player available that could affect the offensive and defensive sides of an NBA game like Andre Drummond. And there probably hasn't been one like that since Derrick Rose. If only he had Derrick's motor, this would be a no-brainer.

That's my pick, with two major things that could change the order among the top three. 1) If UConn fails to make the tourney, that's a red flag on Drummond. With 5 guys on the court, 2 lottery picks should be enough to be one of the 66 best teams in college basketball. 2) If Thomas Robinson doesn't measure out as a legit PF at the combine. Tweener power forwards can play, but ceilings are just lower for undersized players.

Gerald Henderson's Path to 20 Points Per Game

The 2011-2012 Bobcats season does not offer fans the promise of a deep playoff run, or frankly the reasonable hope of a playoff berth. No, as previously chronicled here, the Bobcats' path to relevance involves more than a few future lottery picks. With that in mind, progress can't be measured in team success, so it needs to be measured in individual success. So, let's look at one of the more critical pieces of the puzzle: Gerald Henderson. By most accounts, his on-ball defense, shot-blocking, passing, rebounding, etc. are at least passable for shooting guards in the league. But, does he have what it takes to score at a 20+ per game clip?

Obviously, when compared to the wing players that scored 20+ points per game last season, Henderson comes up noticeably short of the mark. Not only are the attempts nowhere near the group, but efficiency is lacking on free throws, 2 point attempts, and 3 point attempts. But, the story is far different when looking at the last 23 games of the season (March and April, after the Gerald Wallace trade):

Shot attempts increase noticeably, but notice that efficiency on all shots increased. In fact, when looking at the last 23 games, he was scoring at a more efficient clip than either Stephen Jackson (.909 points per shot on 20.3 shots per game) or Gerald Wallace (.865 points per shot on 18 shots per game) did last year as Bobcats.

So, what's it going to take to make Gerald Henderson a 20 point scorer this season? In a word: seven. As in, seven more shots per game. Given his efficiency scoring the ball, all he has to do is take seven more shots at the same level he played the last 23 games. Doesn't matter what kind of shots he takes. Even if he took seven more 3's a game, with his disturbingly low accuracy on that front, he'd get there. Now, at the end of the day, even if Gerald's numbers improve, and he joins the ranks of 20 point scorers in the league, will that make the Bobcats relevant? Frankly, no. But for a team that seems several pieces away from NBA relevance at the moment, it's a small comfort that maybe one of those pieces isn't as far away as it seems.

Hoping for a Better Bobcats Future

It seems like forever ago, but the Charlotte Bobcats are barely 14 months removed from a 44 win regular season and #7 seed in the Eastern conference playoffs. Take a look at the team's major contributors (listed by average minutes, played at least 41 games) that season:

Gerald Wallace, Stephen Jackson, Boris Diaw, Raymond Felton, Tyson Chandler, D.J. Augustin, Nazr Mohammed, Stephen Graham

In the 14 months since the Bobcats' first playoff berth, 6 out of the 8 are gone. The longest tenured Bobcat (time with the team) is now either D.J. Augustin, Gana Diop, or Matt Carroll. If we weren't in an official rebuild mode before this draft, the departure of Jackson clinched it -  it's time to tear it down, clean it out, and start over.

Before you spout off about how big free agent signings are the only path to title contender status, remember: Oklahoma City and Memphis proved that small market teams, run the right way (even if, in Memphis' case, it's sometimes in spite of themselves), can blow up a fringe playoff team and emerge on the other end as viable contenders. So, what's the secret?

Well, it's having 5 and 4 lottery picks, respectively, over 4 hopeless lottery bound seasons. More importantly, it's having 4 and 3 of those lottery picks, respectively, in the top 5 (note: Seattle/OKC traded its best player at the time, Ray Allen, for a top 5 pick - sound familiar?). And, if you don't think patience is necessary to accomplish this, consider: the average win total for OKC and Memphis over that 4 season span? 27 games.

There is a blueprint, and Rich Cho was part of executing it in OKC. The major part of that blueprint is stockpiling high draft picks, and making average-to-above-average decisions. It didn't take a genius to pick Durant after Oden went #1 in '07, and it didn't take a genius to take Rudy Gay at #8 (he went 3 picks after Shelden Williams) in '06. By the way, in hindsight, Saer Sene and Hasheem Thabeet were disasters as lottery picks for OKC and Memphis, and they're still sitting pretty today. They don't all have to be perfect picks, just more hits than misses, with one home run mixed in. So, Bobcats fans, let's try to maintain some perspective as we trudge through the dog days of the next few seasons. This may take a while.

P.S. And try not to throw too many stones at draft picks we don't like... because smarter people than you and me (these guys and these guys too) had Serge Ibaka behind Alexis Ajinca at the time. And if you didn't know enough to pick Serge back then, then you probably don't know enough to dispute the Bismack pick now. (This postscript is absolutely directed at myself, but if you're guilty of the same, then great. Two birds with one stone.)

A Bobcats Plan for the 2011 Draft

Despite all the attention paid to deadline trades and free agent signings, franchise cornerstones arrive on draft night. As in, 26 of the last 32 NBA Finals MVP's were drafted by their respective teams*. For Bobcats fans, a good draft is an exercise in hope, and a great draft is almost delusional. How can I say that? From '06-'08, 3 out of 5 Bobcats lottery picks don't have NBA contracts for next season (4 out of 7 1st rounders). In fact, I'd argue the team's 3rd most successful draft was the 2010 Draft, because there weren't any draft picks to screw up.

But, as an extremely biased and optimistic fan, I believe the team's drafts have turned a corner. In '09, Gerald Henderson and Derrick Brown were good draft choices, and the acquisition of Rich Cho as a GM will undoubtedly bring an analytical element that the front office has never truly embraced. So, with withdrawal deadlines in the rearview mirror, and just a few days until the draft, it's time to finalize thoughts on what the Bobcats should do.

First off, trading up is not a good idea. There's a better chance of getting two solid starters at #9 and #19 than getting an All-NBA player in the top 5. Plus, the Bobcats have Chicago's 1st round pick next year. Seriously, would you rather package two picks for a chance at Irving/Williams/Kanter/Knight/Vesely/Walker this year, or do the same for a chance at Anthony Davis/Harrison Barnes/Perry Jones/James McAdoo/Austin Rivers next year? Plus, according to the ESPN Trade Machine, even an expiring contract like Diaw can't be traded, because he hasn't technically exercised his player option yet. Yeah, let's just wait this out, and get 2 starters and a rotation guy this year.

#9 Pick
Ideal Pick: Kawhi Leonard. You've already read about how much I like him, so let's not re-hash it.

Other Acceptable Picks (in order of preference): Jonas Valanciunas, Kemba Walker, Jan Vesely, Alec Burks, Nikola Vucevic, Klay Thompson, Chris Singleton

#19 Pick
Ideal Pick: Nikola Vucevic. The more I read about him, the more I like. He's a center from a size perspective (with a 6% body fat measurement at the combine, his 7-0 / 260 lbs. seems better than a lot of other big man prospects). He has a real offensive skill-set with his back to the basket, shooting range out to 20+ feet, and appears passable at minimum in the other facets (rebounding, defense, work ethic). He won't face the transition hurdle of the international prospects since he's played at USC for 3 years. I think he's a legit starting center in the league, and his combination of size, skill, and low risk is quite rare (feels a lot like Brook Lopez). In fact, I could even talk myself into a major reach by taking him at #9, that's how much I like him. 

Other Acceptable Picks (in order of preference): Klay Thompson, Chris Singleton, Tobias Harris, Jeremy Tyler, Tyler Honeycutt

#39 Pick
Ideal Pick: Norris Cole. All I see is Eric Maynor when I look at Norris Cole. True point guard, with the physical size and athleticism to keep up with the pro game, a consummate floor general and team guy who will stick in the league. If you know of a reason that he won't make it, I'd like to know. Because, from my perspective, there aren't guaranteed rotation players (minimum) in the 2nd round... except for Norris.  

Acceptable Picks (in order of preference): Jeremy Tyler, Jon Leuer, Jimmy Butler, Scotty Hopson, Josh Selby

*Dirk Nowitzki and Kobe Bryant acquired in draft day trades, but drafted that day. So I'm counting them in the 26.

Drafting for the Bobcats

The NBA Draft is a lot like hitting a baseball, something I know literally nothing about. There are different definitions of success, and different ways to go about getting it done.

 - Sometimes you don't need to be a hero, and just advancing runners is a good enough win (low upside, low downside).
 - Sometimes, you're situated to take a reasonable shot at an extra base hit, knowing that it's okay that it might not work out (the calculated risk).
 - Sometimes, you flail so hard at the ball that the most likely outcome is you walking back to the dugout, after looking really stupid. But, for whatever reason, you wanted that home run so bad, you decided it was time to take a shot.

In my opinion, DraftExpress provides everything you'd want to know about a prospect and more, but here's my view of what the Bobcats are looking at in their draft slots, and what I think they should do.

#9 (Joakim Noah/Brook Lopez to Joe Alexander) 
Laying Down the Bunt: Kawhi Leonard, Marcus Morris
The 2-0 Swing:  Donatas Motiejunas, Alec Burks
Swinging Out of Your Shoes: Bismack Biyombo

My Pick: Kawhi Leonard. I see shades of Gerald Wallace (great rebounder, energy and versatility on defense), with a little sprinkle of Andre Iguodala (underrated passer handling the ball, particularly in the open court, potential lockdown defender). Is he the best player on a title contending team? No. But the last 6 champions needed a glue guy wing defender like this on their team (Prince, Bowen, Posey, Bowen, Posey, Ariza, Artest). He's ready to play in the NBA tomorrow, and when I watched him play a few games at SDSU, I saw versatility, athleticism, two-way ability, and hustle. I want Kawhi Leonard on the Charlotte Bobcats. Don't argue. Just accept it.

#19 (Ty Lawson to Quincy Douby) 
Laying Down the Bunt: Kenneth Faried, Chris Singleton
The 2-0 Swing: Jordan Hamilton, Tyler Honeycutt, Travis Leslie
Swinging Out of Your Shoes: Lucas Noguiera, Josh Selby

My Pick: Lucas Noguiera. I can already hear the Alexis Ajinca comparisons. They're both 7 footers that make Kevin Durant look like Ron Artest. I can't say that I disagree, but... he's 18 years old, with ridiculous physical potential. Easy to compare him to Ajinca and laugh, but tell me how he's different from Serge Ibaka as a prospect in 2008? He's a longshot, but he may be stashed overseas for a year or two...or forever. I'd rather use the $1.2mm salary that pick is allotted as dry powder for a potential free agent offer (spoiler alert: he plays for the Kings).

#39 (Landry Fields to Stanko Barac) 
Laying Down the Bunt: Nolan Smith, JaJuan Johnson, Trey Thompkins
The 2-0 Swing: Darius Morris, Jereme Richmond, Norris Cole, Charles Jenkins
Swinging Out of Your Shoes: Scotty Hopson, Malcolm Lee, Jeremy Tyler

My Pick: Norris Cole. In the 2nd round, there aren't a lot of All-Star caliber players available. In fact, it's important to remember that most of these guys are out of the league in less than 2 years. With that in mind, this is where I pick the guy that has a spot on an NBA roster. That guy? Norris Cole. True point guard, with NBA size, demonstrated ability to run a team (esp. in pick-and-roll) and do what it takes to help his team win. Case in point? Over 20 ppg against Butler (3 games) as the focal point of his team's offense, and 20 rebounds in a game (in college, I believe a young Rajon Rondo was the last PG to do that). This was Cleveland's sleeper before they got the #1 pick and Kyrie. Now, hopefully, he'll be our sleeper.