Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Drafting for the Bobcats

The NBA Draft is a lot like hitting a baseball, something I know literally nothing about. There are different definitions of success, and different ways to go about getting it done.

 - Sometimes you don't need to be a hero, and just advancing runners is a good enough win (low upside, low downside).
 - Sometimes, you're situated to take a reasonable shot at an extra base hit, knowing that it's okay that it might not work out (the calculated risk).
 - Sometimes, you flail so hard at the ball that the most likely outcome is you walking back to the dugout, after looking really stupid. But, for whatever reason, you wanted that home run so bad, you decided it was time to take a shot.

In my opinion, DraftExpress provides everything you'd want to know about a prospect and more, but here's my view of what the Bobcats are looking at in their draft slots, and what I think they should do.

#9 (Joakim Noah/Brook Lopez to Joe Alexander) 
Laying Down the Bunt: Kawhi Leonard, Marcus Morris
The 2-0 Swing:  Donatas Motiejunas, Alec Burks
Swinging Out of Your Shoes: Bismack Biyombo

My Pick: Kawhi Leonard. I see shades of Gerald Wallace (great rebounder, energy and versatility on defense), with a little sprinkle of Andre Iguodala (underrated passer handling the ball, particularly in the open court, potential lockdown defender). Is he the best player on a title contending team? No. But the last 6 champions needed a glue guy wing defender like this on their team (Prince, Bowen, Posey, Bowen, Posey, Ariza, Artest). He's ready to play in the NBA tomorrow, and when I watched him play a few games at SDSU, I saw versatility, athleticism, two-way ability, and hustle. I want Kawhi Leonard on the Charlotte Bobcats. Don't argue. Just accept it.

#19 (Ty Lawson to Quincy Douby) 
Laying Down the Bunt: Kenneth Faried, Chris Singleton
The 2-0 Swing: Jordan Hamilton, Tyler Honeycutt, Travis Leslie
Swinging Out of Your Shoes: Lucas Noguiera, Josh Selby

My Pick: Lucas Noguiera. I can already hear the Alexis Ajinca comparisons. They're both 7 footers that make Kevin Durant look like Ron Artest. I can't say that I disagree, but... he's 18 years old, with ridiculous physical potential. Easy to compare him to Ajinca and laugh, but tell me how he's different from Serge Ibaka as a prospect in 2008? He's a longshot, but he may be stashed overseas for a year or two...or forever. I'd rather use the $1.2mm salary that pick is allotted as dry powder for a potential free agent offer (spoiler alert: he plays for the Kings).

#39 (Landry Fields to Stanko Barac) 
Laying Down the Bunt: Nolan Smith, JaJuan Johnson, Trey Thompkins
The 2-0 Swing: Darius Morris, Jereme Richmond, Norris Cole, Charles Jenkins
Swinging Out of Your Shoes: Scotty Hopson, Malcolm Lee, Jeremy Tyler

My Pick: Norris Cole. In the 2nd round, there aren't a lot of All-Star caliber players available. In fact, it's important to remember that most of these guys are out of the league in less than 2 years. With that in mind, this is where I pick the guy that has a spot on an NBA roster. That guy? Norris Cole. True point guard, with NBA size, demonstrated ability to run a team (esp. in pick-and-roll) and do what it takes to help his team win. Case in point? Over 20 ppg against Butler (3 games) as the focal point of his team's offense, and 20 rebounds in a game (in college, I believe a young Rajon Rondo was the last PG to do that). This was Cleveland's sleeper before they got the #1 pick and Kyrie. Now, hopefully, he'll be our sleeper.

2 comments:

  1. Charlie from Money Train (1995)May 18, 2011 at 9:33 AM

    I don't necessarily disagree with your strategy, but I think it is difficult to evaluate the Bobcats' draft analysis in a vacuum. You need to also understand how that draft strategy fits into thier free agency / trade strategy. How do you fit this draft class into that framework?

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  2. Not sure what trades are available given the looming lockout. Given how unlikely an All-NBA player signing as a free agent is in Charlotte, the best chance to improve via free agency is to sign an under-the-radar player that makes a jump in production. Can cover those guys in another post.

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