Taking the Money: Why and When A Player Enters the NBA Draft Early

Every year around this time, the NBA draft early entry list is finalized, and a small army of college basketball analysts wax poetic about the horrible decisions young athletes are making by trading 1-3 years of eligibility for their chance at an NBA career. The odds of being drafted in the 1st round are so low, they say. Staying in college to hone your craft gives you a better shot at making it, they say. While I can't begin to describe how hypocritical the 2nd sentiment is (how many times do college coaches dump on their power forwards and centers trying to face up because "they care too much about what scouts think?"), the first is pretty misleading too.

The NBA draft, like most drafts, are not about what players do at their current level of the sport, but what they could do at the highest level. And over the last 5 years (the one-and-done rule period), the drafting pattern is plain and simple. Most freshmen who are drafted are lottery picks or 1st rounders, and most seniors who get picked are 2nd rounders. Is this focus on potential over production valid? Well, based on NBA success, the list of under-drafted seniors is pretty short (Wes Matthews), but almost every year there's an under-drafted early entry (DeAndre Jordan, Rudy Gay, Rajon Rondo).

The composition of drafts is only half the story, though. What about all those early entry kids who messed up by listening to the wrong people, and shortchanged themselves? Well, looking at the official early entry candidates who stayed in the last 5 drafts, it looks like this...

Underclassmen making bad decisions? Please. In the last 5 years, 88% of freshmen early entries drafted, 76% in the 1st round, with guaranteed contracts. 76% of sophomore early entries drafted, 58% in the 1st round. Overall, 71% of early entries are getting drafted, and 49% in the 1st round.

So, what advice is there to kids weighing the early entry deadline? There's something important to be gained from looking at the underclassmen who declared early, and weren't drafted.

Undrafted Freshmen: Davon Jefferson, JaJuan Robinson, Nate Miles, Robert Earl Johnson, Tommy Mason-Griffin

Robinson and Johnson were definitively off the NBA radar when they declared. Jefferson, Mason-Griffin, and Nate Miles were all flagged for varying levels of issues after their freshman years (work ethic, chemistry, and recruiting violations, respectively).

Undrafted Sophomores: Courtney Fortson, Dar Tucker, Darius Washington Jr., David Johnson, Dee Bost, Derek Burditt, Donald Jeffes, Keith Brumbaugh, Kellen Lee, Samardo Samuels, Sylven Landesberg, Tedric Hill, Terrence Roderick

Of this group, Washington, Samuels, and Landesberg were truly being evaluated as NBA prospects ahead of the draft. In total, of the 18 undrafted underclassmen, you could argue that only 5 harbored legitimate hopes of being drafted at all, if not in the 1st round. Removing the truly irrational draft entrants, the data is striking: 95% of early entry freshmen were drafted (82% 1st rounders), and 93% of early entry sophomores were drafted (71% 1st rounders). That's 81% of those early entrants drafted, 66% in the 1st round. Doesn't seem like anybody mentions that Tristan Thompson has a 95% chance of being drafted, and an 80% chance of being a 1st rounder, does it?

For the prospect considering early entry, if they've consistently seen their names on the mock drafts of DraftExpress, NBADraft.net, and HoopsHype all season, they need to seriously consider leaving school to play in the NBA. And if most mocks have a player in the lottery, I'd advise against turning down the chance to earn more money in 3 years than most college graduates earn in a lifetime. College basketball analysts love to rail against a DeAndre Jordan or B.J. Mullens leaving early and falling in the draft. What they always fail to mention is the opportunity for life-changing money that guys like Willie Warren and Devin Ebanks gave up by going back to school for one more year, and having scouts fall out of love with their potential.

This decision, of course, has to be made with the perspective of a likely NBA lockout. No one really knows what a new collective bargaining agreement will bring for rookie salaries, guarantees, when players actually play, when players actually get paid, etc. Is that a reason to stay in college, or a reason that a record 56 underclassmen declared for this year's NFL draft with a similar lockout looming? I lean toward the latter.