2011 Early Entry Analysis: Deadline Decisions

Since tonight is the official deadline for college basketball's early entrants to withdraw or stay in the draft, it's probably the right time to take a look at who should stay in school, and who should go. Obviously, if three major NBA mock draft sites have a player as a 1st rounder, I believe that means that player should go. Since Harrison Barnes, Jared Sullinger, and Perry Jones have already announced they're staying, let's look at who's staring down their decisions before the deadline. (For the record, all three guys were consensus lottery picks, and extremely likely top 5. Let's see how that plays out. My guess is that 2 of those guys are disappointed with their decision a year from now).

HAVE TO GO NOW (consensus 1st rounders): Alec Burks, Bismack Boyimbo, Brandon Knight, Chris Singleton, Derrick Williams, Donatas Motiejunas, Enes Kanter, Jan Vesely, Jordan Hamilton, Kawhi Leonard, Kemba Walker, Klay Thompson, Kyrie Irving, Marcus Morris, Markief Morris, Terrence Jones, Tobias Harris, Trey Thompkins, Tristan Thompson, Tyler Honeycutt

The easy lightning rods here will be less accomplished college players like Klay Thompson, Tobias Harris, and Tyler Honeycutt. But if mock drafts are in any way indicative of league consensus (I believe the three used are), their decisions to go are good. Terrence Jones, a player whose tweener label will likely grow next year, is definitely risking something by staying, especially considering he was viewed as a consensus lottery pick. 

NEED TO THINK (2 out of 3 1st rounders): Darius Morris, Jeremy Tyler, Jordan Williams, Shelvin Mack

I'd guess that 3 out of 4 are taking calculated risks, given uncertainty around next year (team performance, coach, etc.). The apparent head-scratcher is Morris, but his progress and potential could make him a late 1st round steal.

TAKING A RISK (1 out of 3 1st rounders): Josh Selby, Lucas Nogueira, Reggie Jackson, Travis Leslie

Honestly, nothing that crazy here. Most people know Selby's story. The one thing I would note: he may prove people wrong, but Travis Leslie's an interesting case. Usually, a prospect with his athleticism is the kind of guy NBA GM's get excited about. If in 3 years of playing college basketball, there isn't that much buzz about his potential, he could have a very tough professional road.

BAD DECISION (not a 1st rounder): Everybody else

This is a group that's clearly determined to go pro, despite any other feedback they got. For guys like Scotty Hopson, who definitely has pro-level talent, an unsettled situation next year isn't the best place to raise his stock, especially as a rising senior. But for guys like Jereme Richmond, Cory Joseph, and Malcolm Lee, this is a very tough decision to understand solely based on draft stock.  

Mock Draft Links Used:
http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2011/
http://www.nbadraft.net/2011mock_draft
http://hoopshype.com/draft.htm