A Bobcats Plan for the 2014 Draft (And Beyond)

2011 Edition
2012 Edition
2013 Edition

As hard as it is to believe, the once-interminable Bobcats rebuild is over. The 2014-2015 Hornets boast the following attributes:

• 43 regular season wins last year
• an All-NBA player on the roster (Al Jefferson)
• cap space ($41mm of committed contracts before addressing Josh McRoberts, Jeff Taylor, and the backup point guard situation)

So, with that out of the way, let's delve into the most optimistic post in the history of this blog regarding the Bobcats/Hornets. The roster looks like this as currently constituted:

• Point Guard: Kemba Walker, TBD
• Shooting Guard: Gary Neal, Gerald Henderson
• Small Forward: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Jeff Taylor
• Power Forward: Josh McRoberts, Cody Zeller
• Center: Al Jefferson, Brendan Haywood
• Other: Bismack Biyombo, TBD, TBD, TBD, TBD

The 2014-2015 Hornets have a few glaring issues to address. First, a crunch time lineup that can space the floor for Big Al. There's a reason that two midseason additions (Gary Neal, Chris Douglas-Roberts) played significant minutes in a playoff series. Second, a reliable backup big that can work effectively out of the low post. Third, a reliable backup point guard. Fourth, continuing to build depth and talent. Having one All-NBA player doesn't punch an automatic ticket to the 2nd round of the playoffs (ask the T-Wolves). So, what should the Hornets target in the draft?

There are a few players I've talked about at the top of the draft, and if they were to unexpectedly fall, you'd have to take them. But in the event that it doesn't happen...

DRAFT NIK STAUSKAS AT #9.

He's a natural shooter off a catch-and-shoot or off-the-dribble. He has natural instincts working as the ball-handler in pick-and-rolls, and has the ability to get to the rim and either finish or get fouled, especially when attacking closeouts. His wingspan and strength probably won't allow him to be more than an average individual defender, but he gives you everything you'd want on offense from a shooting guard. I'm so bullish on Stauskas, I think he has the potential to sneak into an All-Star game at some point, and at the very least, he's a skilled basketball player that will always have a place on an NBA roster.

Upside Picks If They Fall (in order of preference): Joel Embiid, Julius Randle, Andrew Wiggins, Dante Exum, Noah Vonleh, Aaron Gordon

The guys I didn't mention (Jabari Parker, Marcus Smart) are guys I honestly would not draft at #9. I legitimately prefer the talent/fit combo that Stauskas brings over both of those guys. If none of those guys are available, here are other directions I would go...

Other Fit Picks (in order of preference): Jusuf Nurkic, Zach LaVine, trade down

DRAFT JOHNNY O'BRYANT AT #24.

Good low post scoring instincts in a legit power forward body. Conditioning should be a fixable issue given the progress he's already made since entering college, and Al could be the perfect mentor to help him realize is still-impressive potential. He could be the backup low post scoring threat that the Hornets desperately need, and a nice frontcourt complement to Cody Zeller.

Other Picks (in order of preference): Cleanthony Early, K.J. McDaniels, Mitch McGary, Walter Tavares, Russ Smith

DRAFT RUSS SMITH AT #45.

Smith's athletic ability and penchant for clutch performances are known by everyone who watched college basketball. His size might preclude him from performing with starter minutes over 82 games, but unleashed as a two-way terror with the second unit? He could be an incredible complement to our starting unit, and the definition of a "change of pace" coming off the bench.

Other Picks (in order of preference): Spencer Dinwiddie, Joe Harris 

After the draft, the depth chart would like this...

Point Guard: Kemba Walker, Russ Smith

Shooting Guards: Nik Stauskas, Gary Neal

Small Forwards: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Jeff Taylor

Power Forwards: Josh McRoberts, Johnny O'Bryant

Centers: Al Jefferson, Cody Zeller

Bench: Gerald Henderson, Jeff Taylor, Bismack Biyombo

I like that roster's ability to space the floor, play both sides of the ball, and while there isn't a good answer to "what if Al Jefferson gets hurt," no team really has a good answer for replacing an All-NBA player. Besides, the team can still go get Gordon Hayward with a 4 yr, $50mm offer sheet when free agency starts.

2014 Early Entry Analysis: Deadline Decisions

With the NCAA tournament over, college basketball players and other NBA draft hopefuls have little time to make a life-altering decision. Despite several sources of "information", it's difficult to find any reliable data. With that in mind, I've tried to look at this from the perspective of the best, publicly available information: the mock drafts of DraftExpress and NBADraft.net as of today.

The past three years (2011-2013 NBA Drafts), I've written this post using the mock drafts available at the time (post-tournament, pre-deadline), not at the beginning of the season or the week before the draft. This way, it's a true(r) representation of the imperfect information that's out there. What have the past three years shown about how useful my typical tiers are?

1. PROJECTED LOTTERY PICKS ARE VERY LIKELY TO BE DRAFTED IN THE 1ST ROUND.

In the last three years of NBA drafts, 33-40 players have chosen to enter the draft that were projected as a lottery pick by one or two of the mock drafts. All of those players ended up being drafted in the 1st round, and at least 80% of them ended up lottery picks. They may not have signed for as much money as they hoped, but they were signing guaranteed rookie contracts.

2. PROJECTED 1ST ROUND PICKS OUTSIDE THE LOTTERY ARE MEANINGFULLY LESS LIKELY TO BE DRAFTED IN THE 1ST ROUND.

For the players that went into the draft as projected 1st round picks outside the lottery, the chances of falling out of the 1st round are much higher. While this idea is easily accepted without digging into data, consider the magnitude: for every three players that thought they were a mid-teens to late 1st round pick based on a mock draft, one of them fell to the 2nd round. That is a very real risk to consider.

3. BEING IN BOTH MOCK DRAFTS MATTERS, ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE THE LOTTERY.

Again, this seems like an intuitive point, but the magnitude is significant. Being a lottery pick on both mock drafts means seven out of eight guys will go in the lottery, versus four out of five going with only one site. Outside the lottery, being in both mock 1st rounds meant that a player significantly reduced the chance of falling out of the 1st round altogether.

Now, the sample size (three years) isn't nearly big enough to point to anything as a definitive trend, but at a minimum, it should indicate that the concept of this post is at least pointed in the right direction. Unless you're the type of person that says mock drafts have no value whatsoever, in which case, there's nothing I can say to change your mind. Now, without further ado, on to the (new and improved) tiers...

TIER 1. LOTTERY PICKS (LIKELY 1ST ROUNDERS) 

Despite all the hand-wringing over the top prospects, the consensus lottery picks (shaded in blue) are pretty familiar names to most people that look at potential draftees throughout the college basketball season. The non-consensus guys are the typical mix of international prospects that may or may not come out, and prospects with diverging opinions. Based on the last three years, these guys have a good shot of going in the lottery, and a very good shot of going in the 1st round if they enter the draft. It's also of note that despite the roller-coaster season Marcus Smart had as sophomore relative to his breakout freshman year, his standing as a mid-to-high lottery pick does not appear to be affected at this point.  

TIER 2. POSSIBLE 1ST ROUND PICKS.

For guys in this group, the potential for falling out of the 1st round is real. As a result, they are probably considering a few factors with regard to coming out this year: 1) the quality of their individual prospects next year; 2) the quality of their team prospects next year; 3) remaining work towards graduation; and 4) any personal situations that prioritize a professional career sooner rather than later. For some guys, the decision to come out is already made, but for others, this is a very difficult call. I would simply echo the following: seven guys on this list are projected as "consensus" 1st round draft picks. If recent history holds, then it's likely that one (or more) of those seven players falls out of the 1st round.  And, including both tiers, there are 35 projected 1st round picks, and only 30 actual 1st round picks. 

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What the Bobcats Might Do With a Top 3 Pick (2014 Edition)

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ASSUMED HE'S NOT COMING OUT: Joel Embiid

For the record, I'm assuming that he's not coming out this year. If he was coming out this year, he'd be the most likely All-NBA guy from this class. His physical skill set is remarkable for a guy his size, his acumen for development is impressive considering his low exposure to high level basketball, and I'd echo everything that the Internet says about his upside. Did I conveniently assume he's not coming out, going against everything we've learned about the majority of top 5 picks in college basketball, so that I could focus on some other guys in this post?

Probably.

TOUGHEST OMISSIONS: 

Aaron Gordon

As good as Gordon is on defense, I don't see a very functional player in a spacing-critical NBA offense, aside from better-than-you-think passing. What is the probability of Gordon becoming a passable scorer at the small forward position without a jump shot? He was one of my favorite guys to watch going into the season, and while I'd still love to have him on my team, I'm just not sure a great defensive player without a jumper can dominate the NBA at the small forward position.

Noah Vonleh

Vonleh is a hard prospect not to like. His physical attributes seem outstanding for an NBA big, and he's already shown the beginnings of a useful jumper to keep defenses honest. The only knock I can come up with is that, despite his tangible attributes, he seems to play below the rim / struggle in close space more than I'd think he would. Seriously, that's all I could come up with. Very worried that he's going to make me look stupid in a few years.

IF ONLY I HAD THE GUTS: Zach LaVine

I admit, Steve Alford's rotations at UCLA are probably hiding several things about Zach LaVine. Does he want to be a point guard or shooting guard at the next level? Are his above-the-rim plays limited to the open court, or do they translate into good finishes in the halfcourt? In the limited time I've seen him, he's shown flashes of high level NBA athleticism, shooting, with enough ball-handling and passing. I see Klay Thompson with more spring, and a less accurate jumper.

And now, for the best prospects to eventually be All-NBA players...

3. Dante Exum

Relative to the other highly touted prospects, it feels like there's far less game footage to evaluate Exum. That seems typical for international prospects, but his potential is amazing. He has significant things to work on at the next level: is he a full time point guard or not (I think he's a play-making 2)? Can his jumper become reliable? Can he defend both guard spots (or either)? Despite these questions, it's pretty clear what he does bring. His athleticism and basketball IQ will likely translate to both guard spots on offense and defense, and he seems to have a clear #1 guy aura to him. To me, he's got almost as much physical potential as Andrew Wiggins, with less uncertainty about whether he wants to be "the guy." At the risk of sounding like a basketball xenophobe, if he had played college ball in the U.S., I wonder if he'd be my #1 prospect, as opposed to just behind the two guys ahead of him.

1B. Andrew Wiggins

So, given what I've said about Joel Embiid, I might be breaking one of my own rules, but I don't really have a choice. The Paul George comparisons are interesting, because while George's physical profile was pretty impressive as a 2010 draftee, I was hard-pressed to see a true NBA alpha dog lurking in there... and I was wrong. Watching Wiggins, he has the ability to do everything an NBA small forward can do at a high level (minus Lebron's passing, because no NBA small forward passes like Lebron). We'd all like to see him get to the rim consistently off the dribble. We'd all like to see him put his stamp on every minute he's in a game. But he clearly values playing high level defense, the ability to keep teammates' involved, and the necessity of taking the reins of a game when needed (read: the Florida game). All the pieces are there, as are the intangibles.

1A. Julius Randle

He has a T-Rex wingspan. He doesn't play above the rim. He doesn't always play with consistent effort. I just put those in there because I've read them from other people, because I'm skeptical of all those sentiments (except the wingspan, that can't be argued). What I see is a very polished offensive skill set, everywhere from the box to the high post. I see a rebounding monster, who attacks the ball off the glass. And while his wingspan doesn't necessarily allow him to block a ton of shots, he's got an impressive amount of footspeed and quickness for a 6"9, 250 pounder. It looks like the kind of quickness that would make him a good positional defender, able to handle switches in the pick-and-roll, which, combined with his general strength, should make him an above-average to good defender. I see a 20-10 machine, and the potential to be the #1 guy on a contender.

P.S. All the links provided are to the excellent video scouting reports put up by DraftExpress. For any NBA draft nerd, their site is basically impossible to ignore.

Preseason View of the 2014 Draft Class

2012 Edition
2013 Edition

With the college basketball season already underway, it's a good time to identify what prospects NBA teams will be paying attention to as the season progresses. DraftExpress and NBADraft.net are my sources for the mock draft data, because they're as good as anyone doing it. Now, this is never an exact science, especially at this point in the year; only 12 of the 30 players in each site's 1st round mock a year ago ended up drafted in the 1st round (14 out of 30 in the 2012 draft). But it can at least provide some insight into what random college basketball game you'll use to fight insomnia in January. Without further ado...

TIER 1: LOTTERY PICKS

At this point in the season, there's not a lot of debate about the top of the draft. Aside from the significant divide on Aaron Gordon, four of the top five are set. In what feels like a broken record, Kentucky has a lot of players on this list. As does Kansas. While I think this makes several draftees harder to evaluate, that's the scouts' problem. Interesting note: based on the last two years, roughly half of these players won't be lottery picks this year. For every Cody Zeller, there's a Tony Mitchell; for every Anthony Davis, there's a Perry Jones. If I had to pick a fall risk, I'd look at Marcus Smart, if only because he's experiencing a Cody Zeller-like jump in expectations as a college sophomore, and without a perceived leap in production, I could see a freshman prospect like Harrison over-taking him.

TIER 2: 1ST ROUND CONSIDERATION

As is typical, the bottom of the first round is an ever-changing mix of guys who surprisingly went back to school (read: Poythress), role players that could step into larger roles (read: Harrell, McGary), and more polished underclassmen who are more likely pitching to fill a specific role at the next level (read: McDermott, Payne, Reddic).

As always, it'll be interesting the players who skyrocket from "not on the board" to "lottery pick" come June. In 2012, it was Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Dion Waiters, and Damian Lillard. In 2013, it was Anthony Bennett, Victor Oladipo, and Kelly Olynyk. Can't wait to see, and argue about, who those guys are this year.

A Bobcats Plan For The 2013 Draft (and Beyond)

(2011 Edition)
(2012 Edition)

The Bobcats are entering Year 3 of their rebuild. That's right, year 3. Aside from telegraphing a name change, and setting the record for regular season futility, the roster now sports some younger players. A quick look at the current roster shows eight players under contract, and $41mm of salary committed for next year before this year's 1st round draft pick and a decision on Gerald Henderson's free agency (among others).

As far as building a championship contender, the team is not that close. The roster has starter/rotation level players (Walker, Sessions, Biyombo, Henderson) as well as a few potential rotation guys (Taylor, Kidd-Gilchrist, McRoberts). However, every NBA champion of the last 25 years had at least one All-NBA player (1st or 2nd team). Take a look at the 2013 All-NBA teams:

Point Guards: Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook, Tony Parker (no Derrick Rose, Rajon Rondo)
Shooting Guards: Kobe Bryant, James Harden, Dwyane Wade
Forwards: Lebron James, Kevin Durant, Carmelo Anthony, Blake Griffin, David Lee, Paul George (no Kevin Love)
Centers: Tim Duncan, Marc Gasol, Dwight Howard (no Andrew Bynum)

It's important to remember that, aside from this list, there's quite a few up-and-coming youngsters that will compete for these spots. So, while finding an All-NBA talent somewhere in this year's draft is not impossible, it will take some conviction. And while these predictions are as likely to be wrong as anyone's on the Internet, consider: based on this blog's draft recommendations the last two years (2011 and 2012), the Bobcats last five draft picks would have been Kawhi Leonard, Kemba Walker, Jeremy Tyler, Andre Drummond, and Quincy Miller. That roster might look a little better than the current one.

WHAT'S THE PLAN?

Acquiring young talent should remain at the top of the Bobcats' priority list, and there are a few intriguing pieces that could be had. Both Thomas Robinson and Derrick Williams have been made available for the right price, and either player still has potential upside at the power forward spot worth exploring. Outside of such deals for young guys with rookie deals, free agent acquisitions would probably lean towards over-paying, given the current playoff prospects of the team. With all that in mind, the Bobcats should...

TRADE THE #4 PICK TO MINNESOTA FOR DERRICK WILLIAMS AND PICKS #9 AND #26.

Minnesota is looking to get Victor Oladipo in this year's draft. However, it's important to note that while the Bobcats and Timberwolves could have the same opinion of him, his value his higher within Minnesota's team context. Playing alongside Rubio, Love, and probably Pekovic, Oladipo could be unleashed as a defensive stopper, transition monster, and part-time offensive creator. Charlotte would need him to bear more responsibility on offense, and that may not be his game. Assuming that this deal is really there to be had, the Bobcats could still go after an All-NBA talent at #9, while buying low on Williams. And, with the  #9 pick, the Bobcats should...

DRAFT MICHAEL CARTER-WILLIAMS. 

As far as potential All-NBA talents, I think he's the best prospect in the class. If the NBA Finals proved anything, it's that consistent play-making threats may be as scarce as consistent three point shooting. MCW can play both guard spots, provide NBA caliber passing from day one, substantially improve the offensive numbers of less skilled teammates in the half-court (Biyombo, MKG), and ignite a far more potent transition attack.

As for playing with Kemba Walker, it could be a very complementary match. MCW played off Brandon Triche at Syracuse, and the tandem alternated bringing the ball up, initiating the offense, and looking to score vs create. Walker is the kind of guard whose scoring instincts could mesh extremely well with Carter-Williams as a co-point guard.

Other Upside picks with All-NBA potential (in order, if available): Shabazz Muhammad, Steven Adams, Anthony Bennett

If those guys are unavailable, then there are still players that could be above-average starters and address an area of need for the Bobcats. Of that group, I'd lean towards Caldwell-Pope, who sports a complete offensive arsenal (including much-needed outside shooting), a good motor, and can contribute across the box score and on defense.

Fit Picks for the Bobcats: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cody Zeller, Ben McLemore, Alex Len

If the proposed trade went through, the #26 pick would also belong to the Bobcats. There a few ways to go in that scenario. Given the Bobcats situation, I would look more for team-oriented players, that have the ability to plug into a specific role quickly. Two seem like good bets, depending if the Bobcats go big or small with their lottery pick:

If they go big: SOLOMON HILL. The Kawhi Leonard comparisons feel lazy given Leonard's NBA Finals performance, but before his transcendant 2013 playoffs, Kawhi and Hill offered somewhat similar profiles. Hill brings 3 point shooting, great energy with regard to defense and rebounding, and a good understanding of fitting into a role within a team context. I like his potential as a glue guy small forward, and likely wouldn't take away from the offensive or defensive side of the floor. How often can that be said about a guy near the end of the 1st round?

If they go small: MIKE MUSCALA. He's a player with defined NBA attributes (NBA size and skills at the 4 or 5), who looks like a rotational player at minimum, and a very versatile big at best (stretch 4 shooting with the low post game to punish switches in the pick and roll, competent and developed in all other facets of the game). He would be a nice complement to Biyombo on both ends of the floor, particularly on offense.

Other picks (in order, if available): Ricky Ledo, Jackie Carmichael, C.J. Leslie, Lucas Noguiera

Assuming these moves were made, the Bobcats roster could look like:

Point Guard: Kemba Walker, Ramon Sessions
Shooting Guard: Michael Carter-Williams, Gerald Henderson, Jeff Taylor
Small Forward: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Solomon Hill
Bigs: Bismack Biyombo, Derrick Williams, Byron Mullens, Josh McRoberts, Brendan Haywood

That's a crunch time lineup with two play-makers, explosive athleticism at every position, poor floor spacing, and youthful inexperience. It's debatable whether anyone on this theoretical team would have All-NBA potential (I'd say MCW does), but it has significantly more potential than last year's roster. Someday the Bobcats have to turn potential into playoff wins, but that's not today... it's 2015.

2013 Early Entry Analysis: Deadline Decisions

2011 Edition

2012 Edition

With the NCAA tournament concluded, it's time to look at the NBA Draft's looming early entry decisions. For the kids involved, it's hardly an easy decision to make, and it's simply not an exact science.

The general logic is: if a player is viewed as a consensus lottery pick, it's better to go than stay. On the one hand, players can go back to school, work on their games, and improve their draft stock. Or, in a draft process judged on potential, they could fail to meet the usually ridiculous expectations set out for them, and lose some of the allure from their breakout year.

In 2011, four players chose to go back to school: Harrison Barnes, Jared Sullinger, Perry Jones, and Terrence Jones. I would argue that all four produced at similar levels in their extra season of college, but were picked apart for not expanding their games more. Three out of the four (excluding Barnes) paid a steep price in terms of draft potential.

In 2012, James McAdoo, Tony Mitchell, and Cody Zeller chose to go back to school, and despite not playing worse than they did as freshman, they didn't improve enough to satisfy some pretty lofty expectations, and have lost a little luster with regard to draft stock. It's not a fair world, but it is the world that these kids have to navigate. Here's a look at the perception of this year's prospects, based on mock drafts at Draftexpress and NBADraft.net, respectively.

NEED TO GO NOW (CONSENSUS 1ST ROUNDERS)

The shaded players are consensus lottery picks, and should definitely go. The others are consensus 1st rounders at this point.

At the beginning of the college basketball season, I mentioned that a few guys tend to appear out of nowhere. What an understatement. Guys like Marcus Smart and Victor Oladipo weren't even on the 1st round radar at the beginning of the season, and now both appear to be a high to mid lottery locks. As mentioned earlier, Tony Mitchell and James McAdoo have taken quite a hit, justified or not. And the Kentucky kids have fallen out of favor as well. Things can change quickly, so for players on this list, I'd think long and hard about the shot at a 1st round, guaranteed contract.

NEED TO THINK ABOUT IT (DEBATABLE 1ST ROUNDERS)

All these guys have had some time in the sun over the course of the season, being hailed as 1st round talents. I think that key determinants for these guys should include (in some order): development potential over the summer, likely team exposure (aka tournament success) relative to this past season, and progress towards a degree. The first one applies to the guys like Goodwin and Austin. The second applies to the Michigan trio and Shane Larkin. The third applies to juniors that may be headed for late 1st / early 2nd status anyway, but could finish their degree if they stay one more year.

What the Bobcats Might Do With a Top 3 Pick (2013 Edition)

As the end of the college basketball regular season approaches, GM's and front offices are honing in on the best talent in the upcoming NBA draft (at least the ones that aren't complaining about the class endlessly). Which players offer the best chance at all-NBA level production?

Tough Omissions: Nerlens Noel, Anthony Bennett

I'd say that both stand a good chance of making me look stupid in a short amount of time. Noel has unbelievable defensive ability, and Anthony Bennett is captivating to watch in a game. Since I'm only allowing three players, I leave these guys one cut below due to long term uncertainty about offense and positional fit, respectively. Also, I'm a little relieved Steven Adams from Pitt likely isn't coming out: if he declares, I may re-shuffle this a little bit.

Here are my best guesses for All-NBA talent in the 2013 Draft.

3. Shabazz Muhammad
Draftexpress profile

He has not had the easiest road through his freshman season. A combination of injuries, eligibility issues, illness, and the current mess of the UCLA basketball program have been more than a fair share of hurdles to overcome. Meanwhile, he's demonstrated scoring prowess from all over the floor, palpable intensity on the court, and a willingness to take the big shot (maybe too willing).

I see a potentially very good NBA scorer: scores on a variety of shots (including decent efficiency from three and generating free throw attempts). There is a chance that he's developed earlier than most (a la O.J. Mayo, Tyreke Evans), and his playmaking ability is limited (read: A-TO), but I think there's still some upside for him in the NBA.

(Also, since he's 6-6, can someone explain why so many people refer to him as a "prototypical NBA small forward?" Here are the respective heights of Lebron, Durant, Carmelo, Rudy Gay, Paul George, and Luol Deng: 6-8, 6-9, 6-8, 6-8, 6-8, 6-9. That's basically the small forward position of today's NBA, and Muhammad is two inches shorter than all those guys. I think he's a two in the NBA.)

2. Michael Carter-Williams
Draftexpress profile

His initial hype this season was probably more stats-based (over 10 assists per game) than anything, and as those numbers have fallen in conference play, so has the attention. His season to date has been somewhat inconsistent game to game (partially driven by the Southerland issue, I think), and his flashier pass attempts lead to unnecessary turnovers at times. Having said that, he has more potential than I think he gets credit for.

He has NBA level quickness and athleticism, which allows him to generate steals, push pace, get to the line, and finish in highlight fashion (I know everyone saw that game, but there are other examples). His court vision (arguably the toughest skill to acquire) would be high end at the NBA level from day one, and that trait has meaningfully affected Syracuse's play this year. The form on his jump shot seems to indicate that shot selection has as much to do with poor percentages as anything. And, he clearly relishes being "the guy" in crunch time situations.

I believe that, like Joe Johnson, Evan Turner, and James Harden before him, he'd be miscast matched up against point guards full time: meaning, I'd play him at both guard spots at the next level. He'd have to add some weight at shooting guard (although Kevin Martin has been a pretty good offensive pro with a similar frame), but he could create mismatches at either spot. I think he's a pretty unique talent at the next level, and can't wait to see what he can do in the NBA.

1. Isaiah Austin
Draftexpress profile

He could weigh anywhere from 200-230 pounds right now. That, combined with his height (7-1) and wingspan (7-3), limits his ability to bang in the paint when opponents have lower centers of gravity and more girth. And whenever someone of his size shoots any shot that isn't a dunk attempt, it feels like a win for the defense. And he doesn't have the same explosive athleticism of an Anthony Davis.

Austin could meaningfully impact both ends of the NBA floor. His offensive skill-set (developing post-up game, shooting and reasonable ball-handling out to 18+ feet) are replicated by few NBA players that match his size. Defensively, he alters shots, moves his feet smartly, and rebounds well. And, as far as weight, there are numerous examples of players both outgrowing their thin frames and learning to produce regardless (Kevin Durant, Kevin Garnett, Tyson Chandler, Marcus Camby).

The most important factor to me: he clearly has a motor. He plays through fatigue, inconsistent offensive touches, and the bumps and bruises guys his size accumulate. He's a demonstrable leader of his team, and he seems to love playing basketball (the most common complaint against players of his size). And if he does get to 240-250 pounds, he'll be a force in the NBA.

Postscript

Do you see this draft differently, love or hate the guys I've highlighted or omitted, or just want to troll? This is the post that invites feedback. Put up the three guys you think will be the best pros out of the 2013 draft. If you end up even partially right, you can gloat about it forever. If not, no one's going to remember anyway.

The 2013 NBA Draft: Talent is Not An Issue

It's January, and in the world of the NBA Draft, scouts and front offices are starting to hone in on all the potential prospects set to enter the league at the end of June. Coincidentally, it's also the time when people seem to start universally panning the talent of the draft class. Here's Chad Ford, ESPN draft guru, doing it (around 1:49 PM mark). While we're at it, here's a few other scouts doing it. The refrains vary from "there aren't a lot of can't miss guys" to "there's nobody in this draft to build around." This isn't the first time this sentiment has spread about a draft class, and like every prior year, the overwhelming odds are that it will proven wrong over time... again.

Based on twenty years of NBA Draft classes (1990-2009, chart below), there are a number of interesting observations to make:

1) Every NBA Draft included at least one player that would make an All-NBA team during their career. There are 15 All-NBA players each year, meaning those players are arguably the top 4% of all players in the league.

2) 19 out of 20 NBA Drafts included at least three players that would make an All-Star team during their career (the exception being the very young 2009 draft). There are 24 All-Star players each year, meaning those players are arguably the top 7% of all players in the league.

3) Over this time frame, the average draft has produced three All-NBA players and five All-Star players.

Based on the performance of players in actual NBA drafts, it seems nearly impossible to argue that a given draft seems lacking in "franchise changing" talent, whatever that phrase may mean. NBA draftees have never been finished products, and while people can pretend that things like the one-and-done rule and AAU ball have diminished the talent coming in, the facts don't back it up. Even the 2008 and 2009 draft classes have yet to reach their respective full potential. If you don't believe that, then you would have to believe that James Harden, Ricky Rubio, Steph Curry, Jrue Holiday, Eric Gordon, Brook Lopez, Serge Ibaka, and Nicolas Batum will never make an All-Star or All-NBA team in their careers. (Seems like a bad bet.)

So, as everyone starts to focus on the talent available this June, remember: odds are at least one of these guys will change a franchise, probably more than one. To the guys that do this for a living, the question isn't if that guy is out there; the question is whether you can pick him out of the crowd.

Year	Draftees Making an All-NBA Team	Draftees Making an All-Star Team
1990	2	6
1991	2	7
1992	3	5
1993	4	7
1994	4	5
1995	2	6
1996	7	10
1997	3	3
1998	3	5
1999	5	9
2000	1	3
2001	6	7
2002	3	4
2003	4	8
2004	1	5
2005	4	5
2006	3	3
2007	2	3
2008	3	4
2009	1	1

Preseason View of the 2013 Draft Class

(Preseason View of the 2012 Draft Class)

Now that Midnight Madness has officially started the college basketball season, it's as good a time as any to look at those prospects already high on the radar screens of the NBA. This is, by no means, an exact science... of the 9 consensus lottery picks on the two noted mock drafts last year, 6 were actually drafted in the lottery. But, this could still help identify teams to watch during the season (example: last year's list convinced me to watch more Washington games than planned).

 

TIER 1: LOTTERY PICKS (8 Consensus, 15 Total)

Last Year: 13 Players, 11 Declared, 11 Drafted, 10 1st Rounders, 7 Lottery Picks 

 

The top 4 appear to be pretty set in stone, and Kentucky has three prospects as consensus lottery, versus two last year (hard to believe the metoric rise of MKG in twelve months as far as draft boards were concerned). As always, the fall risks always appear to be the guys that came back. A year ago Perry Jones and Jared Sullinger were considered lottery locks as returning sophomores. The only two who could be on the same path are Cody Zeller and James McAdoo, with McAdoo the bigger fall risk of the two.

 

 





TIER 2: 1ST ROUND CONSIDERATION (10 Consensus, 28 Total)
Last year: 21 Players, 11 Declared, 11 Drafted, 6 1st Rounders, 3 Lottery

There's a lot more debate at the bottom of the 1st round than last year, but it's so dependent on who declares and who doesn't, it's hard to nail any of these down. The most intriguing guys to start the year should be Austin, the Baylor freshman, followed by the eerily-similar-to-Jeff-Green Otto Porter at Georgetown. Outside of that, there's the usual collection of untapped raw potential (Austin, Mbakwe, Leslie, Dieng, Smith), older players with perceived lower ceilings (McCollum, Plumlee, McDermott), and some best guesses.

The best part about this? Guys like Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Dion Waiters, Damian Lillard, and Meyers Leonard. Guys that weren't in either group last year, all lottery picks in June. As a whole, there's a lot we think we know, and even more that we don't know.

2012 Bobcats Draft Strategy

Last Year's NBA Draft Strategy

The NBA draft is almost here. That means it's time to sum up all the college tape, combine measurements, and pre-draft workouts, and pick players. Given the Bobcats' current (and potential) picks, and since NBA GM's will face the repercussions of their picks for years, it's only fair to put up some picks against theirs.

#2 Pick (or #4 Pick)
IDEAL PICK: ANDRE DRUMMOND.
I would be happy with either Drummond or Robinson. Reasonable minds can certainly differ on the risk-reward of each guy, and what the Bobcats need to rebuild their team as of today. I lean slightly towards Drummond because of overall potential, and a more favorable view of his work ethic and demeanor than others. Having said that, I'd have no problems with Robinson, I think they both have legitimate chances at being All-NBA level performers. The only guy who probably shouldn't by Charlotte specifically is Barnes, not because of ability, but because of the obstacles inherent in another UNC player playing in Charlotte.

Other Acceptable Picks (in order of preference): Thomas Robinson, Harrison Barnes, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

#24 (assuming Cleveland trade goes through)
IDEAL PICK: QUINCY MILLER
My fondness for Miller has been documented previously, and think the tremendous upside warrants a selection. Jeff Taylor's athleticism, motor, and intangibles translate to a borderline starter at SF (strong defense at 2 or 3, 3 point shooting, transition finishing) with a floor of rotation player. I can see both being good picks, but I'd roll the dice with Quincy, and hope that year 2 of his ACL recovery reveals the lottery talent most believe is lurking in that body.

Other Acceptable Picks (in order of preference): Jeff Taylor, Evan Fournier, trading for a 1st rounder next year

#31
IDEAL PICK: TONY WROTEN.
First off, if any of the previous three guys are still available, take them here immediately. But, if they're not... not many 6-5, athletic freshmen point guards last this long in the draft. There are certainly reasons for that: bad shooting stroke, difficulty driving and finishing to the right, defensive lapses, etc. This is more of an upside pick (Barton a little less so), but a big point guard with his natural abilities would be a great asset if harnessed correctly. And, to be honest, I'd rather roll the dice with either Wroten or Barton than take a swing with the plethora of undersized college 2 guards that are certain to be available (John Jenkins, Doron Lamb, Kim English)

Other Acceptable Picks (in order of preference): Will Barton, Kyle O'Quinn

A final thought: looking at each of the three picks above, two common themes emerge: positional versatility and significant upside. The Bobcats shouldn't be going anywhere in the next 1-2 years, and the long term competitiveness of the franchise doesn't need to be undermined for prospects more ready to contribute tomorrow. All three of the 2nd place picks (Robinson, Taylor, Barton) are a trade-off of ceiling versus bust potential. Given the state of the Bobcats roster, and the talent available at these spots, these picks seem like reasonable risks to take.

The Bobcats Rebuilding Plan: 2012 Edition

The Bobcats are starting year 2 of their rebuilding process. As noted previously, the "tear down to build up" strategy has worked for Memphis and Oklahoma City, only it took 4 years for each team. At the end of year 1, how does the situation look?

• Roster. One year ago, the team had arguably two players that might be starters on a contender: DJ Augustin and Gerald Henderson. Today? The team has four (DJ Augustin, Gerald Henderson, Kemba Walker, and Bismack Biyombo).
• Salary Cap. One year ago, the expiring contracts of note were Boris Diaw ($9 million) and Eduardo Najera ($2.6 million), with $20 million coming in 2013 (Stephen Jackson, Diop, Carroll). Today? The Diaw and Najera contracts are gone, and the same $20 million cap relief is coming in 2013, with the added bonus of moving up 12 spots in the draft (for Biyombo), courtesy of effectively swapping S-Jax for Maggette.

So, year 1 provided some positive steps despite the historically awful record. And, while the #1 pick didn't fall the Bobcats' way, that doesn't knock the plan completely off the rails. With that in mind, here's a few suggested steps that the Bobcats should take in the next two months.

1. Draft Andre Drummond or Thomas Robinson. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I really like both of them as prospects,, and think both offer reasonable risk/reward. I lean slightly toward the former versus the latter (the easy part about being an armchair quarterback: you get to hedge your bets, while the pros have to make a pick. I don't envy you at the moment, Rich Cho).

2. Trade DJ Augustin for the #16 pick. In case you didn't know, the Houston Rockets have some issues at PG. Kyle Lowry wants to be traded, and Goran Dragic is an attractive free agent target. As insurance, they might be persuaded that a one-year insurance policy at point guard is worth their 2nd 1st round pick. So, why should the Bobcats let him go?

First, it gives Kemba Walker the full time point guard role (and rids us of the dreaded 6-foot backcourt). Second, there's a strong possibility that Quincy Miller will be there at #16, a prospect I truly believe has elite NBA scoring potential. He's generally disregarded as a player coming out a year early, but that has little to do with his ultimate NBA value. Definitely worth the pick.

3. Sign Roy Hibbert to an offer sheet. Over the last 4 years, Hibbert has proven to be a durable anchor on the offensive and defensive sides of the floor, in addition to being a great locker room example for younger guys. Market value for his services is probably in the DeAndre Jordan / Marc Gasol range ($11-15 million per year). Signing him to the high end would either 1) convince him to join the Bobcats, or 2) force a conference rival to pay at-or-above market value. (Note: this might work, to a lesser extent, with Brook Lopez).

Why should the Bobcats spend their cap room like this? Well, because they've got a lot of it. Starting with the summer of 2013, the Bobcats will have over $30 million a year in salary cap room with its amnesty still intact (another $8 million if Tyrus is cut loose). Signing Hibbert at a $15 million clip and using the amnesty on Thomas would only use a net $6-7 million of all thet cap room. That means that there'd still be plenty of room to sign a max free agent.
Assuming all this happens, the Bobcats roster would look very different.
PG: Kemba Walker, Cory Higgins
SG: Gerald Henderson, Matt Carroll
SF: Quincy Miller, Corey Maggette
PF: Andre Drummond / Thomas Robinson, Bismack Biyombo
C: Roy Hibbert, BJ Mullens
So, you don't have to be completely depressed that the team lost out on Anthony Davis. The team still needs a teaching head coach and a decent veteran backup at point guard, but there are paths back to relevance that don't involve the 'Brow.

Are College All-Star Teams a Blind Spot for NBA GM's?

As this blog has noted several times, consistent success in the NBA is significantly influenced by success or failure in the draft. It remains the major source for franchise cornerstone talent for all organizations, and seeing the difference between getting it right and getting it wrong is sometimes as easy as looking at Dwight Howard and Emeka Okafor. However, for all the opportunity and optimism, it's still not that easy to land one of the best talents in the NBA via the draft.

Looking back at the NBA drafts from 1990 to 2009, there were 572 players drafted in the 1st round, and 54 of them made an All-NBA team at least once in their careers. As noted in the chart above, that's a 9% success rate overall. Now, the obvious point is that higher picks have been more successful over that time. But as GM's start to look over this year's potential picks, particularly from teams like Kentucky and UNC that boast multiple prospects, a very important question bears asking. Do GM's fall for players that play with other 1st round talents, even when history says it's a bad idea? To try and answer this, let's look at draft picks in three groups: draftees with no 1st round teammates, draftees with one 1st round teammate, and draftees with two or more 1st round teammates.

First, let's take a look at players who were the only players from their team drafted that year in the 1st round. This by far the largest of the three groups (471 players), and the success rates look largely similar to the generic group. There's honestly not that much interesting stuff in this group, other than remembering the #1 picks that haven't made an All-NBA team: Glenn Robinson, Joe Smith, Michael Olowokandi, Kenyon Martin, Kwame Brown, Andrea Bargnani, and Blake Griffin (for now).

Next up are draftees that had one teammate drafted in the 1st round in the same year. It's a smaller group (68 players), so not every number is meaningful (the only #1 pick in the group was Allen Iverson). It's probably worth noting that of the 8 All-NBA players drafted in this group, 5 of them were the 2nd guy drafted from a team (Latrell Sprewell after Robert Horry, Sam Cassell after Doug Edwards, Vince Carter after Antawn Jamison, Paul Pierce after Raef Lafrentz, Zach Randolph after Jason Richardson). And the 8th guy, Russell Westbrook, was drafted right before Kevin Love, but they'll both be All-NBA players after this season. So, really, out of all the 2 man classes drafted over this period, the All-NBA player was the 2nd guy picked 5 out of 7 times.

Finally, it's the members of the college super-teams, the guys who were drafted alongside at least 2 teammates in the 1st round. 33 players are in this group, and their respective college teams probably ring a bell:

Michigan '90, UNLV '91, Arkansas '92, Kentucky '96, Duke '99, North Carolina '05, Connecticut '06, Ohio State '07, Florida '07, North Carolina '09

While the overall number looks similar (9% hit rate versus all picks at 9%), the number seems deceptive. The three All-NBA players all came within the top 3 picks: Larry Johnson (#1 overall), Elton Brand (#1 overall), and Al Horford (#3 overall). The hit rate is literally nonexistent outside the top 5 picks. The other, hugely important observation: 3 of the 10 first picks off a team (Rumeal Robinson, Larry Johnson, Todd Day, Antoine Walker, Elton Brand, Marvin Williams, Rudy Gay, Greg Oden, Al Horford, Tyler Hansbrough) made an All-NBA team. That means none of the other 23 guys drafted from those super-teams (the 2nd and 3rd best guys on those college teams) hit that level of success.

What, if anything, should be drawn from all this? For me, it reinforces something we all probably know intuitively. College basketball can often involve teams and schedules of very different quality. That difference usually makes it very difficult to project a player's prospects, i.e. the small college star who plays against competition that probably won't make it to the NBA. But, that's most of college - there are over 300 D-1 teams, and 30 NBA teams. If a player's level of competition can make evaluators skeptical, history shows that a player's quality of teammates might require the same treatment.

Does this mean that the NBA draft world is looking at Anthony Davis and Harrison Barnes with rose-colored glasses? Based on the 20 drafts I looked at, no. Views of the best guy on these teams don't seem to get skewed. But should evaluators be careful with John Henson, Tyler Zeller, Kendall Marshall, Terrence Jones, Doron Lamb, and Marquis Teague? Yeah, I think they need to be very careful.

Oh, and maybe take another look at Jeremy Lamb, Tony Wroten, Mason Plumlee, Tyshawn Taylor, Fab Melo, John Jenkins, and Quincy Miller. As of right now, they're all the 2nd guy drafted from their respective college teams.

NBA Draft Classes

(Last Updated: 2011 NBA Draft)

2012 Early Entry Analysis: Deadline Decisions

It's a little earlier than last year's post, but if the NCAA can move up its deadlines out of convenience, then who can't? Just like last year, this is not an attempt to definitively say any single prospect should or should not leave school. It is merely a subjective view of what 3 popular draft websites think of their likely positions in the 2012 draft.

NEED TO GO NOW (Consensus 1st Rounder)

The highlighted players are consensus lottery selections, while the rest are rated as 1st round picks by all 3 referenced draft websites. It's interesting to look at the draft statuses of Harrison Barnes, Jared Sullinger, Perry Jones, and Terrence Jones. All 4 players were consensus lottery picks last year, with potential draft slots from 3-14. They all went back to school for a chance to win it all, and they got to the Elite 8, Final 4, Elite 8, and a national championship, respectively. It's also safe to say that all of them will be drafted lower than they were last year (Terrence Jones was a consensus lottery pick last year). For those who say you can't put a price on the college experience, consider the following:

• In the 2011 draft, the last 8 lottery picks (6-14) signed contracts worth an average $6 million in the 1st 3 years, guaranteed. Picks 15-20 signed contracts worth an average of $4 million (difference of $2 million).
• Based on last year, the average 3 year contract value by draft pick slot was: $11 million (1-5), $7mm (6-10), $5 million (11-15), $4 million (16-20), $3.2 million (21-25), $2.7 million (26-30)

The decision to go back to school gave all 4 players another year of scholarship benefits and college competition, but easily cost each of them at least $500,000 depending on where they get drafted this year.

SHOULD CONSIDER LEAVING

Relative to last year, it feels like there's a little less variety in where players are getting drafted. In particular, none of these 5 players looks like they could sneak into the lottery at this point.

TAKING A RISK

Again, not a lot of controversy here.

REAL THINKING NEEDS TO BE DONE: Cody Zeller, James McAdoo

The first two are consensus top 5 picks in next year's draft. It's hard to say what that means in terms of this year's draft, but there's a definite interest in both of these guys at the next level. Whether their potential is worth a top 10 pick this year is hopefully what their coaches are trying to figure out for them right now. Because, as last year proved for several top flight prospects, places in the NBA draft are fleeting, even for the best prospects.

What the Bobcats Might Do with a Top 3 Pick

After watching the Charlotte Bobcats test new levels of futility over the last few weeks, it's more than clear that the "tear down, lotto up" plan is in full effect. No mater what short term pain this causes, people have to remember that for small market teams, this is how rebuilding happens. With that knowledge in hand, we can freely turn our attention to a fairly "deep" 2012 draft, and ponder the possibilities.

The idea of a "deep" draft is really in the eye of the beholder. Your perspective depends on what you need. To that point, take a look at this:

Every NBA champion of the last 20 years, all of them, had at least one All-NBA player that year. Of the 40 teams that played in the NBA Finals, 36 had at least one All-NBA player. In fact, 17 of the last 20 champions had an All-NBA 1st Team player. And of those 17, only Shaq (free agent, trade) and Garnett (trade) didn't arrive on draft night. Success in the NBA begins and ends with drafting a superstar. While I think there are several players on the Bobcats that could one day play key roles on a contending team (Kemba, Gerald, Biyombo), there probably isn't an All-NBA player on the roster at this point. That's the #1 priority for this pick, plain and simple.

With that background, take another look at the 2012 draft. Are there 5-10, maybe even 15 quality rotation players in this draft? Almost certainly. Are there 5 perennial All-Stars in this draft? Maybe, but probably not. Is there an All-NBA player in this draft? Maybe one, possibly two. Tough call to make. But that's what Rod Higgins and Rich Cho have to do. Here's how I'd make the decision, as of February 2012.

1 All-Star Game is a Stretch: Terrence Jones, Bradley Beal, Tyler Zeller, John Henson

Again, this is not an indictment of their ability to play at the next level. It is a guess that there are ceilings for these guys lower than perennial All-Star.

Maybe 1 All-Star Game, But Definitely Not 2: Meyers Leonard, Jeremy Lamb, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

Lamb and Kidd-Gilchrist are both great prospects, and in the right roles, will thrive at the next level. But that success is highly dependent on the situations they arrive in, which is a clear cut below the threshold the Bobcats need.

Could Be All-NBA, But the Odds are Pretty Low: Perry Jones, Jared Sullinger, Anthony Davis

Jones is the easiest one to put here. Sullinger will be a statistically productive pro, no doubt about it, but I'm pretty sure Udonis Haslem is the only 6'8 guy who logged the PF minutes for an NBA champion (next to Shaq and Alonzo Mourning) in the last 20 years. Smarter people than me love Anthony Davis, but I'll say two things about him.

• 4.7 blocks a game is impressive. But Emeka Okafor averaged 4.7 in his last year at UConn, and never developed enough on the other side of the floor to anchor a franchise. Also, six other guys have led college basketball with similar blocks per game numbers since then, and the NBA hasn't heard from any of them. That skill alone doesn't predict NBA success very well.
• Lanky, rangy forward/centers with pogo stick legs and a flash of guard-like skills are not new. How many of these wiry guys end up busts? Anthony Randolph, Brendan Wright, Julian Wright, Andrea Bargnani, Tyrus Thomas, Charlie Villanueva, Channing Frye... that's just the last few years worth of lottery picks. 

If Only I Had the Guts, But I Don't: Quincy Miller

I wish I could justify this with extremely sound analysis and tons of hard data. I can't. But every time I watch him, I see a serious scoring skill-set (ball-handling, shooting, decision making) from a true NBA small forward. I see nice athleticism and explosiveness that will only improve as he continues to heal from a terrible knee injury in high school. And I see a game partially held down by sharing the floor with a top 10 pick (Perry Jones), a grizzled senior (Quincy Acy), and a point guard who rarely sets up other scoring plays (Pierre Jackson). You can't use a top-3 pick on him this year, but I don't think it'll seem so far-fetched in 2013 if he goes back to school.

The Best Chances: Harrison Barnes (#3)

The whole world has jumped on and off this bandwagon several times in 18 months, and I'm no exception. Last year, I was worried that he never blew by people off the dribble. This year, I'm worried that he doesn't play both ways with consistent effort. But let's not forget what is known: he makes jumpshots from all over the floor (not just threes), he's got a slight Brandon Roy-esque craftiness (without the passing) as a scorer, and he's got plenty of practice being "the man," for better or worse.

Thomas Robinson (#2)

Incredible blend of physical and mental tools. The physical tools seem pretty evident (yesterday's Oklahoma game was a nice sampler on offense), and the mental tools show up in rebounding and composure (last Saturday's Iowa State loss). The Kansas offense may not be showing us everything he has to offer, and I like his chances to realize his full potential at the next level. For the naysayers who think that if he didn't do it as a freshman, it's less impressive, that seems logical. It means you pass on sophomore Blake Griffin because freshman Michael Beasley was more impressive, but that's your call.

Andre Drummond (#1)

His path to UConn takes the word "curious" to new levels. You can watch  games and forget he's on the floor, which is terrible. His demeanor, combined with his skills, almost make his successful plays too easy, and thus underwhelming. It appears that he may not love basketball enough to realize his potential. Having said that... Andre Drummond can do just about anything on a basketball court. In terms of size, athleticism, fluidity, court vision, he's arguably in the upper echelon of NBA centers already. There simply is no player available that could affect the offensive and defensive sides of an NBA game like Andre Drummond. And there probably hasn't been one like that since Derrick Rose. If only he had Derrick's motor, this would be a no-brainer.

That's my pick, with two major things that could change the order among the top three. 1) If UConn fails to make the tourney, that's a red flag on Drummond. With 5 guys on the court, 2 lottery picks should be enough to be one of the 66 best teams in college basketball. 2) If Thomas Robinson doesn't measure out as a legit PF at the combine. Tweener power forwards can play, but ceilings are just lower for undersized players.