Preseason View of the 2014 Draft Class

2012 Edition
2013 Edition

With the college basketball season already underway, it's a good time to identify what prospects NBA teams will be paying attention to as the season progresses. DraftExpress and NBADraft.net are my sources for the mock draft data, because they're as good as anyone doing it. Now, this is never an exact science, especially at this point in the year; only 12 of the 30 players in each site's 1st round mock a year ago ended up drafted in the 1st round (14 out of 30 in the 2012 draft). But it can at least provide some insight into what random college basketball game you'll use to fight insomnia in January. Without further ado...

TIER 1: LOTTERY PICKS

At this point in the season, there's not a lot of debate about the top of the draft. Aside from the significant divide on Aaron Gordon, four of the top five are set. In what feels like a broken record, Kentucky has a lot of players on this list. As does Kansas. While I think this makes several draftees harder to evaluate, that's the scouts' problem. Interesting note: based on the last two years, roughly half of these players won't be lottery picks this year. For every Cody Zeller, there's a Tony Mitchell; for every Anthony Davis, there's a Perry Jones. If I had to pick a fall risk, I'd look at Marcus Smart, if only because he's experiencing a Cody Zeller-like jump in expectations as a college sophomore, and without a perceived leap in production, I could see a freshman prospect like Harrison over-taking him.

TIER 2: 1ST ROUND CONSIDERATION

As is typical, the bottom of the first round is an ever-changing mix of guys who surprisingly went back to school (read: Poythress), role players that could step into larger roles (read: Harrell, McGary), and more polished underclassmen who are more likely pitching to fill a specific role at the next level (read: McDermott, Payne, Reddic).

As always, it'll be interesting the players who skyrocket from "not on the board" to "lottery pick" come June. In 2012, it was Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Dion Waiters, and Damian Lillard. In 2013, it was Anthony Bennett, Victor Oladipo, and Kelly Olynyk. Can't wait to see, and argue about, who those guys are this year.