The 2013 NBA Draft: Talent is Not An Issue

It's January, and in the world of the NBA Draft, scouts and front offices are starting to hone in on all the potential prospects set to enter the league at the end of June. Coincidentally, it's also the time when people seem to start universally panning the talent of the draft class. Here's Chad Ford, ESPN draft guru, doing it (around 1:49 PM mark). While we're at it, here's a few other scouts doing it. The refrains vary from "there aren't a lot of can't miss guys" to "there's nobody in this draft to build around." This isn't the first time this sentiment has spread about a draft class, and like every prior year, the overwhelming odds are that it will proven wrong over time... again.

Based on twenty years of NBA Draft classes (1990-2009, chart below), there are a number of interesting observations to make:

1) Every NBA Draft included at least one player that would make an All-NBA team during their career. There are 15 All-NBA players each year, meaning those players are arguably the top 4% of all players in the league.

2) 19 out of 20 NBA Drafts included at least three players that would make an All-Star team during their career (the exception being the very young 2009 draft). There are 24 All-Star players each year, meaning those players are arguably the top 7% of all players in the league.

3) Over this time frame, the average draft has produced three All-NBA players and five All-Star players.

Based on the performance of players in actual NBA drafts, it seems nearly impossible to argue that a given draft seems lacking in "franchise changing" talent, whatever that phrase may mean. NBA draftees have never been finished products, and while people can pretend that things like the one-and-done rule and AAU ball have diminished the talent coming in, the facts don't back it up. Even the 2008 and 2009 draft classes have yet to reach their respective full potential. If you don't believe that, then you would have to believe that James Harden, Ricky Rubio, Steph Curry, Jrue Holiday, Eric Gordon, Brook Lopez, Serge Ibaka, and Nicolas Batum will never make an All-Star or All-NBA team in their careers. (Seems like a bad bet.)

So, as everyone starts to focus on the talent available this June, remember: odds are at least one of these guys will change a franchise, probably more than one. To the guys that do this for a living, the question isn't if that guy is out there; the question is whether you can pick him out of the crowd.

Year	Draftees Making an All-NBA Team	Draftees Making an All-Star Team
1990	2	6
1991	2	7
1992	3	5
1993	4	7
1994	4	5
1995	2	6
1996	7	10
1997	3	3
1998	3	5
1999	5	9
2000	1	3
2001	6	7
2002	3	4
2003	4	8
2004	1	5
2005	4	5
2006	3	3
2007	2	3
2008	3	4
2009	1	1