Monday, January 21, 2013

Could the '11-'12 Wildcats Beat the '11-'12 Bobcats?

During the 2011-2012 basketball season, the success of the national champion Kentucky Wildcats and the historic futility of the Charlotte Bobcats prompted a common question: since Kentucky's team was potentially stocked with NBA talent, could it beat an NBA team in a game?

There were a variety of responses to the question. Some were pretty aggressive, some spoke theoretically about a one-game scenario, while others shaded in that direction. Of course,Charles Barkley also sided with UK,  but then again, this is the same guy who said Yao Ming wouldn't score 19 in his rookie year (with hilarious consequences).

The fun in the question is that there is no credible way to answer the question, because who knows what Kentucky players would do against professional competition? Well, now that those Kentucky kids are almost halfway through their first season against NBA competition, how are they doing?

Marquis Teague. Despite losing Derrick Rose and CJ Watson from last year's squad, Teague has been unable to unseat journeyman veterans like Nate Robinson and Kirk Hinrich at the PG spot. He's playing 7.0 minutes per game, shooting 36.7% from the floor (despite taking virtually no threes), 62.5% from the FT line, and sports a PER of 5.83 (remember, the average NBA player scores a 15). Current NBA Status: FRINGE ROTATION PLAYER.

Doron Lamb. Lamb has averaged 12 minutes per game for the Bucks, shooting 34.7% from the floor (including 25% from three despite his reputed shooting prowess), netting a PER of 3.27 (that's worse than Cory Higgins last year: 4.17 ). Also, Lamb has been sent to the D-League. Current NBA Status: OUT OF THE LEAGUE.

Darius Miller. Miller has averaged 14 minutes per game for the Hornets, mixing decent 3 point shooting (33%) with a propensity to foul (1.9 per game), limiting his effectiveness as a "3 and D" rotational player (6.04 PER). Miller was also recently been assigned to the D-League by a rebuilding team. Current NBA Status: OUT OF THE LEAGUE.

Terrence Jones. Jones has averaged 8.3 minutes per game, contributing some poor shooting (38.2% overall, 25% from three) with nice production across the stat sheet (rebounds, assists, blocks, steals) given his limited minutes. He has also, unfortunately, been sent to the D-League. Current NBA Status: OUT OF THE LEAGUE.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Despite a strong start to the season, MKG has settled into more pedestrian production: 10.2 points on 47.9% shooting, 6.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.1 blocks, 0.7 steals, along with a few turnovers and fouls in 27 minutes per game. The result? A PER of 15.8, and very few fourth quarter minutes for the #2 pick, who plays for arguably the worst team in the NBA. Current NBA Status: STARTER.

Anthony Davis. The preseason NBA Rookie of the Year has had the most impact of this Kentucky class, producing 13.2 points, 8 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks in 29.3 minutes per game (PER of 20.84). He's also seen his minutes per game decrease in every month, most notably averaging only 23 minutes per game during the team's recent 6-1 stretch (nearly half the team's total wins this season). Current NBA Status: STARTER.

At this point, there are only two players from that team that are contributing average production to an NBA team, while the rest are largely off the NBA radar. This in no way says anything about their eventual pro potential; I happen to think at least three will be productive professional players (though not stars). But, there is a difference between playing college basketball and playing in the NBA, no matter what the perception of that may be. That difference means that a college team, no matter how accomplished and talented, doesn't have much hope against a team of NBA players.

Will any of this change the mind of casual basketball fans if another "college super-team" emerges in the next decade? Absolutely not. It's the same reason people casually say that Alabama's football team could beat the Jacksonville Jaguars. It doesn't have to be remotely accurate, it's just fun to talk about, and there's nothing wrong with that. Still, someone should tell Larry Brown that the Hornets have to finish on a 37-5 streak in order to justify his pre-draft hype.

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