Friday, April 18, 2014

The NBA's Best Scorer: 2014 Edition

2011 Edition (Dirk Nowitzki)
2012 Edition (Kevin Durant)
2013 Edition (Lebron James)

Once again, it's time to identify the best scorers in the NBA, and crown one of them as the best of the best. A quick refresh of the criteria for eligibility:

  • Must have played more than 41 games with a team.
  • Must have ranked among the league leaders in attempts (free throws and shots) per game.
Without further ado, here's the 2014 crop (click for a better view).


(Note: in the NBA.com shotcharts below, green regions are above average, yellow regions are average, and red regions are below average.) 

1. STEPHEN CURRY 

Throughout the season, I've felt the gushing over Curry's late game exploits got a little over the top. And I was 100% wrong. Not only is he deadly from pretty much every spot behind the arc, he's not Reggie Miller running through screens. With only 2.5 catch and shoot threes per game, he's generating the other 5+ himself (as opposed to his Splash Brother, 2nd in the league in catch and shoot 3's attempted). Combine that with efficient shot-making ability from all over the floor, and you get the best scorer in the NBA this season.






2. LEBRON JAMES

Having never really looked at a Lebron James shotchart before, it's interesting to note where he takes his shots. As opposed to Curry or Durant, there are spots on the floor that he hasn't scored efficiently from. And yet, he's an extremely efficient overall player. Half of his shots are taken near the charge circle, where he converts a ridiculous 75%. His limited work from the corner threes looks surgical. This is the handiwork of someone who's in full mental command of what's happening on the court, and methodically hunts the shots he wants, not what the defense dictates.





3. KEVIN DURANT

Durant's shot distribution is eerily even among the three basic areas of the court: 1/3 near the rim, 1/3 from beyond the arc, and 1/3 in between. It seems like the best way to guard KD over the past few years was to run him off a jumpshot, and make him drive. Well, now he's scoring on 59% of his drives, which means he might be as close to unguardable on a single possession as exists in the NBA. He's just too tall and smooth to stop him from getting a jumper off, and he is making people pay for years of crowding him with a smaller defender. 





OTHER NOTES
  • Everyone has spent a lot of time talking about Durant's play without Westbrook, but Dwyane Wade only played 8 more games than Westbrook this year. And, if he can score the way he did in the regular season, Miami will be tough to beat 4 out of 7 times. Again.
  • It's been a wild ride for Paul George, but for the overall season, he took on a larger scoring burden with no dropoff in efficiency. Maybe he actually is making a leap... I mean, he's 23.
  • Kyrie Irving was truly one of the more efficient scorers in the league in the last two years. This year, he's closer to John Wall and Russell Westbrook than the top. Given what the other two bring to the table in terms of play-making and defense, not sure he's on par with them at the moment. However, Wall also got a max extension that people questioned last summer, and no one is questioning it now.
  • Evan Turner's career year resurgence in Philly looks more like unapologetic gunning by the numbers. My question for Indiana remains the same in the playoffs: for a team that struggles to generate spacing and score, can Evan Turner solve the latter while not helping the former?
PLAYOFF PREDICTION

Since I've been so good at calling the champ the past three years (2011 - Heat, 2012 - Lakers, 2013 - Heat), why wouldn't I try again? Since I'm already on record as skeptical of the Heat regardless of what they did this season, I'm going with the Thunder. The only team I think could give them serious trouble is the Clippers.

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