The Market for Starting PG's (aka the Jeremy Lin Offer Sheet)

Jeremy Lin's 3 year, $25.1mm offer sheet seems to be provoking opinions from every possible corner of the NBA world. Setting aside the shrewdness of the Houston Rockets' offer (the tax-punishing year 3 salary of $15mm), the question that everyone seems to be asking (and answering): is Jeremy Lin worth this much money?

Is the Jeremy Lin Deal Fair Market Value for an NBA Point Guard?

While most people are taking a crack at this question, a large component that seems to be missing is assessing the market for starting NBA point guards, in terms of annual salary. Looking at the 28 NBA teams whose starting point guards and salaries are readily available (assuming that Lin is a Houston Rocket, and Felton is the Knicks' starting point guard), the data looks like this.

Based on Jeremy Lin's soon-to-be average salary ($8.4mm), he'll be making a little more than the league average. Now, while it seems odd that a guy with so few starts could command an above-market salary, remember that many of these players are not on "market" contracts. They're on rookie deals, which restrict their true market value. Removing the players on their rookie deals...



Among this group, the truly "market" contracts for starting point guards, Lin's annual salary seems more reasonable. Aside from the true franchise point guards (Williams, Rose, Paul, Westbrook, Parker, Rondo), there's a valid argument that Lin's production over the next 3 years could exceed each of the other players on the list.

Is Jeremy Lin's Value Inflated by the D'Antoni System?

Another way to look at Lin's value: was he a product of the system? D'Antoni point guards put up video game numbers, and it inflates their value. So, what have D'Antoni point guards done over the last few years?

Look at the starting point guards for the last four D'Antoni Knick teams. Based on the numbers per 36 minutes, three things jump out: first, the other two guys clearly outperformed their career stats in the D'Antoni system; some inflation does exist. Second, a younger, woefully inexperienced Lin outperformed those guys individually and won a higher percentage of games, with similar or lesser talent surrounding him. Third, Duhon and Felton were paid an average of $6.4mm per year to be the starting point guard for a D'Antoni team. If Lin plays in a similar system for the next 3 years, he'll be getting paid an additional $2mm over that average.

What's the Bottom Line?

Jeremy Lin's offer sheet, much like his rise to fame, boasts some startling numbers that don't make a lot of sense in isolation. But, putting the numbers in perspective makes them seem less outrageous. Questions about his ability to stand up to an 82 game season, and a league more honed in on shutting him down, are real. Questions about how his game will look outside the consequence-free, up-tempo environs of the Linsanity Knicks are warranted. However, his average salary (however back-loaded it may be) isn't far off the market for a point guard. The numbers he put up with the Knicks are better than his predecessors at the position. And, no matter how much he draws at the gate, eventually his talent will show to be genuine or fleeting. It's a reasonable risk to take, and like many free agent signings, his play will soon make several GM's look like geniuses or goats.





2012 Bobcats Draft Strategy

Last Year's NBA Draft Strategy

The NBA draft is almost here. That means it's time to sum up all the college tape, combine measurements, and pre-draft workouts, and pick players. Given the Bobcats' current (and potential) picks, and since NBA GM's will face the repercussions of their picks for years, it's only fair to put up some picks against theirs.

#2 Pick (or #4 Pick)
IDEAL PICK: ANDRE DRUMMOND.
I would be happy with either Drummond or Robinson. Reasonable minds can certainly differ on the risk-reward of each guy, and what the Bobcats need to rebuild their team as of today. I lean slightly towards Drummond because of overall potential, and a more favorable view of his work ethic and demeanor than others. Having said that, I'd have no problems with Robinson, I think they both have legitimate chances at being All-NBA level performers. The only guy who probably shouldn't by Charlotte specifically is Barnes, not because of ability, but because of the obstacles inherent in another UNC player playing in Charlotte.

Other Acceptable Picks (in order of preference): Thomas Robinson, Harrison Barnes, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

#24 (assuming Cleveland trade goes through)
IDEAL PICK: QUINCY MILLER
My fondness for Miller has been documented previously, and think the tremendous upside warrants a selection. Jeff Taylor's athleticism, motor, and intangibles translate to a borderline starter at SF (strong defense at 2 or 3, 3 point shooting, transition finishing) with a floor of rotation player. I can see both being good picks, but I'd roll the dice with Quincy, and hope that year 2 of his ACL recovery reveals the lottery talent most believe is lurking in that body.

Other Acceptable Picks (in order of preference): Jeff Taylor, Evan Fournier, trading for a 1st rounder next year

#31
IDEAL PICK: TONY WROTEN.
First off, if any of the previous three guys are still available, take them here immediately. But, if they're not... not many 6-5, athletic freshmen point guards last this long in the draft. There are certainly reasons for that: bad shooting stroke, difficulty driving and finishing to the right, defensive lapses, etc. This is more of an upside pick (Barton a little less so), but a big point guard with his natural abilities would be a great asset if harnessed correctly. And, to be honest, I'd rather roll the dice with either Wroten or Barton than take a swing with the plethora of undersized college 2 guards that are certain to be available (John Jenkins, Doron Lamb, Kim English)

Other Acceptable Picks (in order of preference): Will Barton, Kyle O'Quinn

A final thought: looking at each of the three picks above, two common themes emerge: positional versatility and significant upside. The Bobcats shouldn't be going anywhere in the next 1-2 years, and the long term competitiveness of the franchise doesn't need to be undermined for prospects more ready to contribute tomorrow. All three of the 2nd place picks (Robinson, Taylor, Barton) are a trade-off of ceiling versus bust potential. Given the state of the Bobcats roster, and the talent available at these spots, these picks seem like reasonable risks to take.

Heat Thunder Summary

Best Player / Most Valuable Player: Dwyane Wade (Individual +35, Net +18). Lebron will deservedly get most of the credit for this series. But the numbers point to his sidekick as top dog in the Finals. His overall numbers (22 ppg, 6 rpg, 5 apg, 44% FG pct) are a slight uptick from the regular season. His ball-handling, particularly finding openings in the pick-and-roll, were a key to the series win. But there's a part of this that numbers can't capture: last year, Wade got the Jerome James award for, in part, holding James back in the Finals. One year later, it looks like he helped unleash him, and willingly took the sidekick role for the good of the team.

Worst Player / Least Valuable Player: Serge Ibaka (Individual -23, Net -12). Serge Ibaka is a great defensive talent. In my opinion, he's going to make another jump in offensive skill over the next 1-2 years. But, playoff series are about matchups. Ibaka's strengths (help-side shot blocking, occasional mid-range jumpers) were negated by the Heat (passing around the help defense, driving directly at the shot-blocker). His shortcomings (no low post offense, inconsistent rotations) were exploited at critical points in several games. As Thunder fans debate whether Ibaka or Harden deserve the last big contract OKC can afford to pay, I'll go with consensus and say Ibaka is the better long term fit. But this series was not his moment to shine.

Reverse Jerome James Award: Erik Spoelstra. When Lebron, Wade, and Bosh came together, the obvious assumption was that all that talent would easily steamroll the league. Based on that, Spoelstra was essentially handed a no-win situation in the eyes of public perception. Winning was a foregone conclusion, right? Well, 12 out of 20 ESPN experts picked the Thunder to win this series. The fact is, the three assumed weaknesses of the Heat (hero ball offense, weak roster outside the Big 3, poor clutch play) were each reversed in this series:

 - 90 assists on 178 field goals (51%) versus OKC's 79 assists on 183 field goals (43%)
 - Miami's other guys outscored OKC's other guys by 41 points in 5 games
 - 3 point lead with 1:47 left in Game 2 (won); 1 point lead with 1:30 left in Game 3 (won); tie game with 3:15 left in Game 4 (won)

He's never going to get a ton of credit, but Coach Spo did what few thought could be done as recently as two weeks ago. He won a title with the 2012 Miami Heat.