How Odd is the Mike Dunlap Hire?

The Charlotte Bobcats have hired Mike Dunlap as their head coach. The decision is surprising for multiple reasons:

• he was not known to be among the initial candidates for the job (a list that included Patrick Ewing, Jerry Sloan, etc.) 
• he was not known to be among the finalists for the job (Brian Shaw, Quin Snyder)
• the majority of NBA fans do not know who he is

Aside from the initial shock factor, there are several gut reactions/reasonable questions running through the mind of Bobcats fans.

Gut Reaction: "This is a crazy hire. He has no experience."
Reasonable Question: "How does Dunlap's experience compare to other recent NBA hires?"

The majority of NBA coaches hired are re-treads, guys who have already been head coaches somewhere. In fact, 19 of the 29 current head coaches in the league had prior experience as head coach of an NBA team. (Incidentally, most coaches get fired because they weren't doing well: Randy Wittman's prior head coaching experience included a 0.32 win pct in over 300 games before getting hired to coach the Wizards).

Nine other NBA head coaches had NBA assistant coach as their best relevant experience. Of those guys, experience ranges from 10+ years (Tom Thibodeau, Larry Drew, Spoelstra), 5-10 years (Monty Williams, Scott Brooks, Gregg Popovich, Tyrone Corbin), and less than five years (Kaleb Canales, Mike Dunlap). Bottom line: Dunlap's NBA experience is on the light end of the spectrum, but he's definitely not the least experienced. That honor has to go to either Canales or Mark Jackson (no previous coaching experience at the college or NBA level).

Gut Reaction: "If we weren't getting a veteran coach, we should hire the big-name young talent."
Reasonable Question: "Were the other coaches better candidates?"

The results here are surprising. Quin Snyder's resume (outside of college) included 3 years as a head coach in the D-League, and one year as an NBA assistant as his most recent job. That job experience is identical to the resume of Sam Vincent prior to his ill-fated hiring as the Bobcats' coach.

Brian Shaw has certainly paid his dues as an assistant, and the pedigree of the Phil Jackson coaching tree (Triangle offense included) is certainly tempting. But he's not the only Jackson assistant coach to look for a head coaching gig. Kurt Rambis was also an assistant under Phil for years, and was hired by Minnesota to bring the Triangle offense to the T-Wolves in 2009. After two years and 32 combined wins, he was fired. And failure is not confined to Jackson disciples. John Kuester was an assistant coach who had paid his dues in the league. After the Cavaliers' 2009 season, he was a hot commodity. But after 2 years coaching the Pistons (29 wins per year), he was fired. The hot young coaching prospect does not always pan out immediately, particularly with young teams short on talent.

Gut Reaction: "The Bobcats knocked themselves way off track with this hire."
Reasonable Question: "Does this hire fit within the Bobcats' rebuilding plan?"

No two rebuilding plans are exactly the same. Indiana re-tooled their roster with savvy trades and nice draft picks in the middle of the 1st round. The Clippers swapped part of their young core for a current superstar. The Thunder tore down and rebuilt around a ludicrously young core, patiently waiting for them to grow.

Regardless of which plan is the Bobcats, the overwhelming likelihood is that if the roster looks like it can win, the coach will turn over before the roster. It happened with Jim O'Brien in Indiana (fired), Mike Dunleavy with the Clippers (fired), Lebron's first head coach (Paul Silas - fired), Derrick Rose's (Vinny Del Negro - fired), Chris Paul's (Byron Scott - fired), Dwight Howard's (Brian Hill - fired), Carmelo Anthony's (Jeff Bzdelik - fired)... Incidentally, most of those coaches were fired within 3 years of their respective superstar's arrival, and prior head coaching experience didn't save their jobs.

At the end of the day, here are the facts: Mike Dunlap has been hired for 2 years, with an option for a 3rd. He is light on experience relative to other hired NBA coaches. Regardless of his resume, no one really knows how he's going to do as a head coach, for better or worse. And, in all honesty, who gets added to this roster is probably twice as important as who's coaching them at this point. Bobcats fans shouldn't be wondering if this is the coach that can win with the Bobcats. The real question to think about: 2 years from now, will any coach be able to win with the Bobcats' roster?

Heat Celtics Summary

Best Player / Most Valuable Player: Dwyane Wade (Individual +60, Net +30). This was a surprising result, considering: 1) Lebron's consistently strong play throughout the series, and 2) the circumstantial evidence of Wade complaining about non-calls while the Celtics were scoring in transition. It's interesting that, after a year of blaming Lebron for all the Heat's ills, popular opinion seems to be giving Wade a larger share of the blame for each setback. With matchups against Westbrook or Harden looming, the Finals should be very interesting for D-Wade.

Worst Player: Paul Pierce (Individual -38). Four years ago, Pierce and James went shot-for-shot in Game 7 of a playoff series, a few weeks before Pierce opined on his standing as the best player in the world. Fast forward to today, and Pierce's numbers in the series were significantly worse than his prior work in these playoffs. 34% shooting (26% on 3's), more turnovers than assists, and generally lackluster defense on James or Wade.

Least Valuable Player: Mario Chalmers (Net -26). Matched up with Rondo, Chalmers was going to be a big factor in this series regardless of the outcome. Judging by Rondo's performance, it seems like Miami won despite a poor series from Super Mario. Unfortunately for him, his next matchup (Russell Westbrook) is arguably just as daunting.

Jerome James Award: Kevin Garnett / Rajon Rondo. Three years ago, Lebron James and the Cavaliers were defeated by the Orlando Magic in the Eastern Conference Finals. At the end of the series, James chose to leave the court before shaking hands with the other team, and blew off his obligatory postgame media session. Along with fines from the league, sportswriters had a lot to say about his very unsportsmanlike act:

"If boxers, after getting pummeled by an opponent, can get off the canvas and shake a man's hand, then so can a basketball player, no matter how famous. James, like so many others before him, is going to have to grow accustomed to crushing losses. Only the great Bill Russell, for the most part, avoided them. Wilt lost, Kareem lost, Magic and Bird lost, Jordan lost. But as far as I know, they maintained a level of sportsmanship that isn't optional." - Mike Wilbon

"So, this is new-era sportsmanship as defined by King James: Winners don’t shake hands with their opponents after they lose; competitors storm off when the result doesn’t go their way." - Bill Rhoden

I agree that, as superficial as it may be in the moment, the post-series handshake represents mutual respect by opponents, a key component of athletic competition. Lebron James rightly took a lot of criticism, because competitors should show respect in victory and defeat. So, where's the collective disgust and outrage over Kevin Garnett and Rajon Rondo doing the exact same thing Lebron did at the end of Game 7? The silence on this subject is confirmatory of a simple fact: perception of the Heat and Celtics players drive their respective media coverage more than reality. The Heat are villains, and the Celtics are heroes. Everything that confirms those perceptions is emphasized, and everything that contradicts them is disregarded or ignored. But, when I look at each team objectively, I see three All-NBA talents that chose to team up and win rather than go it alone and lose. The only major difference between them is one championship ring... for now. From that perspective, it's hard to see the relative treatment of the Celtics and Heat as anything but a double standard.

Thunder Spurs Summary

Best Player: James Harden (Individual +38). His ascension up the ranks of the NBA's shooting guards continues. The comparisons to Manu Ginobli at the beginning of the series seemed entirely premature, given Manu's 3 championship rings and an non-U.S. Olympic gold medal. Well, Harden is 4 wins away from starting his own resume. If you try to list the NBA's best shooting guards at the beginning of the season, it probably looked like: Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade, Manu Ginobli, Eric Gordon, James Harden. Looking forward over the next decade, and crossing the first three names off the list, does that mean James Harden will soon be the 2nd best shooting guard in the league?

Worst Player: Kawhi Leonard (Individual -24). In the last series, I tried to temper enthusiasm for both Leonard and Green. Unfortunately, Leonard was one of the people tasked with trying to stop Kevin Durant in the 4th quarter. Regardless of this series, he's a reliable 3-pointer and one dribble pull-up away from being extremely valuable to any team in the league.

Most Valuable Player: Tim Duncan (Net +34). For the last three years, every postseason conversation about the Spurs seemed to include a consensus that Tim Duncan was losing effectiveness rapidly. Whether by matchups or miracles (probably a little of both), his production in the middle of the Spurs' small lineups was impressive. As always, the development of a solid sidekick in the middle will say a lot about the Spurs' seemingly endless championship hopes.

Least Valuable Player: Kendrick Perkins (Net -22). Either it was Tony Parker on the pick-and-roll, or single covering Tim Duncan in the post down the stretch of Games 5 and 6. Regardless, this was not the series for Perkins. And, really, with Boston and Miami looming, will he be taken off the court again in the Finals due to the matchups?

Reverse Jerome James Award: Russell Westbrook. Let's be honest, most people believe that Russell Westbrook is the Achilles heel of the Thunder. Get in his head, watch him shoot his team out of the game. Tony Parker even attempted some pre-series gamesmanship by calling Westbrook "the head of the snake." Turns out, Westbrook didn't have a stellar series shooting the ball (0.81 PPS) or making plays (7.3 assist versus 3.3 turnovers). He also had a better plus/minus than Durant in 4 out of 6 games. While the whole world gets exasperated with every missed shot, maybe everyone should take a cue from Durant: he seems to understand better than we do that Westbrook's impact has a lot more to do with his shooting percentage.