2012 Early Entry Analysis: Deadline Decisions

It's a little earlier than last year's post, but if the NCAA can move up its deadlines out of convenience, then who can't? Just like last year, this is not an attempt to definitively say any single prospect should or should not leave school. It is merely a subjective view of what 3 popular draft websites think of their likely positions in the 2012 draft.

NEED TO GO NOW (Consensus 1st Rounder)

The highlighted players are consensus lottery selections, while the rest are rated as 1st round picks by all 3 referenced draft websites. It's interesting to look at the draft statuses of Harrison Barnes, Jared Sullinger, Perry Jones, and Terrence Jones. All 4 players were consensus lottery picks last year, with potential draft slots from 3-14. They all went back to school for a chance to win it all, and they got to the Elite 8, Final 4, Elite 8, and a national championship, respectively. It's also safe to say that all of them will be drafted lower than they were last year (Terrence Jones was a consensus lottery pick last year). For those who say you can't put a price on the college experience, consider the following:

• In the 2011 draft, the last 8 lottery picks (6-14) signed contracts worth an average $6 million in the 1st 3 years, guaranteed. Picks 15-20 signed contracts worth an average of $4 million (difference of $2 million).
• Based on last year, the average 3 year contract value by draft pick slot was: $11 million (1-5), $7mm (6-10), $5 million (11-15), $4 million (16-20), $3.2 million (21-25), $2.7 million (26-30)

The decision to go back to school gave all 4 players another year of scholarship benefits and college competition, but easily cost each of them at least $500,000 depending on where they get drafted this year.

SHOULD CONSIDER LEAVING

Relative to last year, it feels like there's a little less variety in where players are getting drafted. In particular, none of these 5 players looks like they could sneak into the lottery at this point.

TAKING A RISK

Again, not a lot of controversy here.

REAL THINKING NEEDS TO BE DONE: Cody Zeller, James McAdoo

The first two are consensus top 5 picks in next year's draft. It's hard to say what that means in terms of this year's draft, but there's a definite interest in both of these guys at the next level. Whether their potential is worth a top 10 pick this year is hopefully what their coaches are trying to figure out for them right now. Because, as last year proved for several top flight prospects, places in the NBA draft are fleeting, even for the best prospects.

How Common is Jeremy Lin?

The Knicks just finished their seventh consecutive win, their sixth with Jeremy Lin playing as a starter. The hype surrounding this run has reached epic proportions, so epic that even recreational bloggers are trying to shoehorn a Jeremy Lin column onto the Internet, desperately trying to gain traffic. What a sad group that must be.

Anyways, the only challenging thing about hopping on the Lin bandwagon is weighing the sizzle versus the substance of the story. Is this story a truly rare feat, or does it happen somewhat often in the NBA? There are two parts to that question.

Part 1: Amazing Stats from a Player That Few Saw Coming

In the NFL, there are a ton of players that exemply out-of-nowhere success. Victor Cruz, Tom Brady, Wes Welker, just to name a few. The NBA is not a league like that. Take this year's All-Star selections. Over half (13) were top 5 draft picks, and a very small number (4 out of 24) were drafted outside the lottery. Generally, these things don't happen. So, have any recent players fit the bill of a Lin-type breakout. Here's the two key criteria for qualifiers:

• not a 1st round draft pick
• traded/cut by at least 1 NBA team

Recent history actually provided two such examples: Jordan Crawford, a 2nd round Hawks pick traded to the Wizards, and Marcus Thornton, a 2nd round Hornets pick traded to the Kings. So, how does Jeremy Lin's 1st 6 games as a starter stack up?

As far as individual stats go, Lin's numbers don't seem quite as mind-blowing. Lin's shooting efficiency bolsters his scoring average, but the high turnover numbers yield similar assist-to-turnover ratios to Crawford and Thornton, and none are true PG-type numbers (all below 2:1). It's also important to note that as both Crawford and Thornton accumulated more starts, their scoring numbers dipped as their shooting efficiency regressed. However, the difference in wins (6 versus 1 each) is significant. But how significant?

Part 2: The Significance of a 6 Game Winning Streak in the NBA

The NBA season is an 82 game marathon (usually), and all kinds of odd things can happen. Looking back at the last 3 seasons, in total there were 89 separate winning streaks of 6+ games during those regular seasons. That doesn't seem that rare, does it? Well, take a look at the teams who won 6+ games in those seasons:

2010-2011: Celtics, Lakers, Trailblazers, Mavericks, Nuggets, Hawks, Hornets, Thunder, Heat, Spurs, Knicks, Magic, Bulls, Jazz

2009-2010: Celtics, Lakers, Trailblazers, Cavaliers, Mavericks, Nuggets, Hawks, Hornets, Thunder, Magic, Suns, Bucks, Jazz, Bobcats

2008-2009: Celtics, Lakers, Trailblazers, Cavaliers, Nuggets, Hawks, Hornets, Spurs, Magic, Suns, Raptors, Jazz, Bobcats, 76ers, Pistons, Rockets

Of the 44 teams that have mustered streaks like the Knicks are on, only 5 missed the playoffs. Translation: bad teams rarely do this. In contrast, the Carmelo-Stoudemire Knicks were 14-14 last season, and 8-15 this season before Lin started playing major minutes. That's generally not considered playoff quality. Factoring in the absence of both Anthony and Stoudemire for most of this 6 game run, and it's hard to deny the impact of Lin on the Knicks as a whole. Truly bad teams just don't win this many games in a row in the NBA, and the Knicks have a lottery-bound roster without their two max players. But they haven't played like it the last two weeks, and only one thing's really changed in that time.

All in all, there's definitely some substance behind the runaway Lin hype machine. In a sport where key players rarely come out of left field, Lin has become one for the Knicks. His numbers will regress, the team will lose some games, and the hype will (hopefully) die down a little. But that doesn't change the fact that the last two weeks have changed the course of the Knicks organization and Jeremy Lin's professional basketball career. And we're all interested in how it plays out now.

What the Bobcats Might Do with a Top 3 Pick

After watching the Charlotte Bobcats test new levels of futility over the last few weeks, it's more than clear that the "tear down, lotto up" plan is in full effect. No mater what short term pain this causes, people have to remember that for small market teams, this is how rebuilding happens. With that knowledge in hand, we can freely turn our attention to a fairly "deep" 2012 draft, and ponder the possibilities.

The idea of a "deep" draft is really in the eye of the beholder. Your perspective depends on what you need. To that point, take a look at this:

Every NBA champion of the last 20 years, all of them, had at least one All-NBA player that year. Of the 40 teams that played in the NBA Finals, 36 had at least one All-NBA player. In fact, 17 of the last 20 champions had an All-NBA 1st Team player. And of those 17, only Shaq (free agent, trade) and Garnett (trade) didn't arrive on draft night. Success in the NBA begins and ends with drafting a superstar. While I think there are several players on the Bobcats that could one day play key roles on a contending team (Kemba, Gerald, Biyombo), there probably isn't an All-NBA player on the roster at this point. That's the #1 priority for this pick, plain and simple.

With that background, take another look at the 2012 draft. Are there 5-10, maybe even 15 quality rotation players in this draft? Almost certainly. Are there 5 perennial All-Stars in this draft? Maybe, but probably not. Is there an All-NBA player in this draft? Maybe one, possibly two. Tough call to make. But that's what Rod Higgins and Rich Cho have to do. Here's how I'd make the decision, as of February 2012.

1 All-Star Game is a Stretch: Terrence Jones, Bradley Beal, Tyler Zeller, John Henson

Again, this is not an indictment of their ability to play at the next level. It is a guess that there are ceilings for these guys lower than perennial All-Star.

Maybe 1 All-Star Game, But Definitely Not 2: Meyers Leonard, Jeremy Lamb, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

Lamb and Kidd-Gilchrist are both great prospects, and in the right roles, will thrive at the next level. But that success is highly dependent on the situations they arrive in, which is a clear cut below the threshold the Bobcats need.

Could Be All-NBA, But the Odds are Pretty Low: Perry Jones, Jared Sullinger, Anthony Davis

Jones is the easiest one to put here. Sullinger will be a statistically productive pro, no doubt about it, but I'm pretty sure Udonis Haslem is the only 6'8 guy who logged the PF minutes for an NBA champion (next to Shaq and Alonzo Mourning) in the last 20 years. Smarter people than me love Anthony Davis, but I'll say two things about him.

• 4.7 blocks a game is impressive. But Emeka Okafor averaged 4.7 in his last year at UConn, and never developed enough on the other side of the floor to anchor a franchise. Also, six other guys have led college basketball with similar blocks per game numbers since then, and the NBA hasn't heard from any of them. That skill alone doesn't predict NBA success very well.
• Lanky, rangy forward/centers with pogo stick legs and a flash of guard-like skills are not new. How many of these wiry guys end up busts? Anthony Randolph, Brendan Wright, Julian Wright, Andrea Bargnani, Tyrus Thomas, Charlie Villanueva, Channing Frye... that's just the last few years worth of lottery picks. 

If Only I Had the Guts, But I Don't: Quincy Miller

I wish I could justify this with extremely sound analysis and tons of hard data. I can't. But every time I watch him, I see a serious scoring skill-set (ball-handling, shooting, decision making) from a true NBA small forward. I see nice athleticism and explosiveness that will only improve as he continues to heal from a terrible knee injury in high school. And I see a game partially held down by sharing the floor with a top 10 pick (Perry Jones), a grizzled senior (Quincy Acy), and a point guard who rarely sets up other scoring plays (Pierre Jackson). You can't use a top-3 pick on him this year, but I don't think it'll seem so far-fetched in 2013 if he goes back to school.

The Best Chances: Harrison Barnes (#3)

The whole world has jumped on and off this bandwagon several times in 18 months, and I'm no exception. Last year, I was worried that he never blew by people off the dribble. This year, I'm worried that he doesn't play both ways with consistent effort. But let's not forget what is known: he makes jumpshots from all over the floor (not just threes), he's got a slight Brandon Roy-esque craftiness (without the passing) as a scorer, and he's got plenty of practice being "the man," for better or worse.

Thomas Robinson (#2)

Incredible blend of physical and mental tools. The physical tools seem pretty evident (yesterday's Oklahoma game was a nice sampler on offense), and the mental tools show up in rebounding and composure (last Saturday's Iowa State loss). The Kansas offense may not be showing us everything he has to offer, and I like his chances to realize his full potential at the next level. For the naysayers who think that if he didn't do it as a freshman, it's less impressive, that seems logical. It means you pass on sophomore Blake Griffin because freshman Michael Beasley was more impressive, but that's your call.

Andre Drummond (#1)

His path to UConn takes the word "curious" to new levels. You can watch  games and forget he's on the floor, which is terrible. His demeanor, combined with his skills, almost make his successful plays too easy, and thus underwhelming. It appears that he may not love basketball enough to realize his potential. Having said that... Andre Drummond can do just about anything on a basketball court. In terms of size, athleticism, fluidity, court vision, he's arguably in the upper echelon of NBA centers already. There simply is no player available that could affect the offensive and defensive sides of an NBA game like Andre Drummond. And there probably hasn't been one like that since Derrick Rose. If only he had Derrick's motor, this would be a no-brainer.

That's my pick, with two major things that could change the order among the top three. 1) If UConn fails to make the tourney, that's a red flag on Drummond. With 5 guys on the court, 2 lottery picks should be enough to be one of the 66 best teams in college basketball. 2) If Thomas Robinson doesn't measure out as a legit PF at the combine. Tweener power forwards can play, but ceilings are just lower for undersized players.