Saturday, April 30, 2011
Grizzlies Spurs Summary
Friday, April 29, 2011
Hawks Magic Summary
Worst Player in the Series: Brandon Bass. Two years ago, the Orlando Magic were fun to watch because they were so unconventional. How many pick and rolls can you possibly run with five guys? With two capable playmakers (Alston and Turkoglu), and three viable screeners (Turkoglu, Lewis, Howard) with different skill sets, they were tough to stop, and compelling to watch. Blowing up that team meant becoming conventional, and ruining the spacing their offense used to have. Turk out, VC in? More conventional, less spacing. Lewis out, Bass in? More conventional, less spacing (Why did Otis Smith roll the dice with huge trade after huge trade instead of paying Turk after '09 and seeing if that core could win it all. Does he get paid a percentage of salaries involved in trades or something?).
Jerome James Award: Jamal Crawford. Jamal Crawford is probably the best clutch player on the floor for the Hawks (I wonder less about Joe Johnson getting to the rim now, and more about him even getting enough space for a free throw line jumper in crunch time). But there's a problem. In the playoffs, we just assume that every game comes down to three possessions in the last minute, and it seems like if you're money then, nothing else matters, you get to do the postgame interview. I don't agree. Pushing a tie game into an 8 point game early in the 4th quarter and playing keep away for 5 minutes is just as valuable is breaking a tie in the last two minutes. If Jamal doesn't tighten it up against Chicago in the first three and half quarters, the Hawks may learn that lesson. Real quick.
Mavericks Blazers Summary
Lakers Hornets Summary
Worst Player in the Series: Ron Artest. I thought that Ron's stifling defense on Belinelli and his timely, if not momentarily cringe-inducing, shooting would put him at or near the top of the chart. But, just like Ron wearing nothing but underwear on Jimmy Kimmel, what seemed like a decent idea at the time turned out to be off. Way, way off.
Jerome James Award: Derek Fisher. The last three years, we spent a whole regular season talking about how Derek Fisher might be the weak link for the Lakers' title run, and then he makes some hopelessly improbable play during the playoffs (coast-to-coast against Boston in the Finals, Game 4 against the Magic in the Finals) that makes us forget. Well, you know what I haven't forgotten? All the playoff point guards who scored big contracts off destroying this guy in playoff matchups over the years. Deron Williams, Chris Paul, Rajon Rondo, Steve Nash, Tony Parker, Russell Westbrook, Mike Bibby, Aaron Brooks... You know what we're guaranteed to say about whoever the Lakers play in the next round? "Yeah, the Lakers have the size, and Kobe, but I think (player whoever on team whoever) definitely has the edge at point guard." Consummate winner? Ideal leader? You must be talking about locker room speeches, because on the court, not so much against the Hornets.
Thunder Nuggets Summary
Worst Player in the Series: Serge Ibaka. This really hurts me personally, because "Sure I-Blocka" is one of my favorite players in the league. Plays on both ends of the floor, appears to have a good work ethic, good feel for the game (especially on defense), and still has some more production to get out of his substantial potential. No, if anything, I'll say that my man "Sure" was dragged down by...
Jerome James Award: Kendrick Perkins. To his credit, he no longer exudes that "hey, I'm oblivious to the fact that I'm the 5th Beatle on the Celtics, we must be winning because I'm awesome!" vibe. On the flip side, there's a chance that Danny Ainge made a shrewd move in not tying up long term money in Perk. Post-trade, the Celtics' defensive efficiency was virtually unchanged in the regular season (as to why offensive efficiency has gone down for Boston, I'd guess it's because Perk set more illegal screens than any big in the league). People love to talk about how he's changed the dynamic of the Thunder, given them a swagger, a defensive identity, an edge. Apparently, his best contribution for OKC is scowling from the bench, because the ol' plus/minus says he didn't help on the court all that much.
Thursday, April 28, 2011
Heat-76ers Summary
Worst Player in the Series: Mike Bibby. A defensive liability for several years, the floor spacing he was supposed to provide didn't really offset his utter uselessness against Jrue Holiday and Lou Williams. The eyeball test didn't lie; Big Z and Bibby were terrible in this series.
Jerome James Award: Thaddeus Young. Probably would have been easy to call out Lebron's seemingly irrelevant contributions based on plus/minus, particularly since the 76ers were consciously leaving Iggy on an island against him all series. But I'm focusing on Thad the Underwhelmer. Watching these games, it felt like everytime he got a rebound, or scored at all, the announcers fought over the right to gush all over him. Does his young talent seem to ooze potential, since he put up 11 and 6 in the series? Well, I actually preferred the 12 and 5 he averaged in a playoff series 2 years ago, while shooting a better percentage. I don't see the upside anymore... after 3 years in the league, you are what you are. Unless there's a leap to make in team chemistry or leadership (see: Zach Randolph, Chauncey Billups), this is who Thaddeus Young will probably be for the rest of his career: a tweener who runs the floor and rebounds well against 2nd units.
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Bulls Pacers Summary
1) Take the plus minus of a player for the entire series, and compare it to the team's plus minus (If you don't know what plus minus is, watch hockey sometime... it's pretty cool, and aside from Olympic hockey, the playoffs are as good as it gets).
2) Take into account the minutes played. Why? Because if two guys have a +/- of +5, one played 10 minutes, one played 40, they're not the same. Running 6 minute miles in a 5K and a half marathon are not the same thing.
Now that that's out of the way, let's take a look at the best and worst players of Bulls-Pacers.
Best Player in the Series: Luol Deng. Saying he averaged 19, 6, and 4 doesn't really do him justice. Took the assignment of guarding the other team's best scorer, and despite playing more minutes than anyone, was +62 in his time on the court. It's really not even close.
Worst Player in the Series: Danny Granger. The best player on a losing team plays a lot of minutes, and usually has a bad plus minus overall. But why was his team 21 points better with him on the bench in 5 games? Well, if Luol Deng basically matched him point for point, and Derrick Rose was on the other team, Danny probably didn't have a chance.
The Jerome James Award: Tyler Hansbrough. For all the bluster about the Game 1 performance, for all the grit and hustle and will and intangibles and want-to and (insert ridiculous hyperbole here) he displayed, his play had no bearing on team success. -36 with him on the floor, and the team was -37. I know people say that Josh McRoberts losing minutes to Hansbrough was part of the Pacers' playoff run, but Psycho T was not a positive contributor in this series. If someone tells you otherwise, just try to stand back, because they're just blowing hot air at you, and that usually doesn't feel good.
P.S. If you don't know why Jerome James is the name of this award, do five things:
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/383/seasontype/3/jerome-james
1) Look at Jerome James' 2005 regular season stats.
2) Look at Jerome James' 2005 first round playoff series stats.
3) Look at Jerome James' summer 2005 signing with the Knicks.
4) Look at Jerome James' career after the 2005 playoffs.
5) Wonder why you weren't tall enough to turn 5 basketball games into $29 million.
Thursday, April 21, 2011
Most Improved? Hating on Kevin Love
For the purposes of this argument, the answers to those questions are: no, yes, yes, and probably not. And, on those grounds, it's time to compare my pick for Most Improved (Derrick Rose) versus the official winner (Kevin Love). And, as for why the rules were set as they were, it's the only way you can compare the leader of the best regular season team to the leader of the worst regular season team without severe migraines.
SCORING
Both guys took roughly 5 more shots a game, showing up mostly in free throws and 3 point attempts. Rose gets credit for going from average to good in free throw shooting, and below average to average on 3's (noting the insane jump in attempts). Love, however, makes the leap from good to great on 3's, while also increasing attempts in the process. Rose's scoring rate was flat (0.94 points per shot vs. 0.95 last year), while Love's jumped (0.97 versus 0.91 last year). ADVANTAGE: LOVE
REBOUNDING
Kevin Love is an elite rebounder. End of story. Derrick Rose's rebounding numbers did go up, but I'm not so blinded as to attempt some flimsy nitpicking of Love's awesome production (as in, "maybe Love's offensive rebound rate wouldn't have gone down this year if he played like a traditional 4/5 and shot less 3's"... see, now I look stupid). ADVANTAGE: LOVE
PASSING
Rose's assist numbers increased, while his assist-to-turnover ratio stayed pretty much the same. However, a nod to productivity here: Rose's minutes per game didn't move much this year versus last, but his assists went up without creating excessive turnovers. Contrast that with Love, who played 7 more minutes a game this year, and generated much smaller gains in assists and turnovers. ADVANTAGE: ROSE
BLOCKS AND STEALS
The closest thing to stats measuring defense without looking at plus/minus (and the resulting biases from team quality) are steals and blocks. Rose's steal and block numbers went up, and Love's numbers stayed flat, despite the increased minutes. Also, consider this: as of this year, Rose blocks more shots per game than Kevin Love. Pause, and read that again. AS OF THIS YEAR, DERRICK ROSE BLOCKS MORE SHOTS PER GAME THAN KEVIN LOVE. I mean, I know you finish a good defensive play with securing the rebound, but if you don't bother to contest shots, were you even playing defense to begin with? ADVANTAGE: ROSE
All in all, it's more of a toss up than I initially thought, looking only at the individual stats. What else is there? Stat-based arguments for Love struggle to overcome the 21 win improvement for the Bulls (average-to-great) versus the 2 win improvement for the Wolves (awful-to-awful). Here's my tiebreaker...
Going into last summer, both Rose and Love were viewed as the kind of great young pieces that might take the next step playing next to a franchise talent like Lebron or Wade. Fast forward nine months... and neither guy got to play alongside a franchise talent this season. And yet, we're debating whether Rose was better this year than Lebron, Dwight, or any other baller on the planet. Kevin Love is not a part of that conversation. Who's the most improved player this year? Are you serious?
(P.S. Hopefully the next week involves Spurs-Grizzlies games getting promoted from NBA TV. Most compelling 1st round series, with too many good matchups to ignore, particularly Tony Allen - Manu Ginobli.)
Friday, April 15, 2011
The NBA's Best Scorer (no, it's not Kevin Durant)
Now that the 2010-2011 season is officially wrapped up, there's a full season of data to decide a fairly contentious argument: who's the best scorer in the NBA? Now, this is not an argument about who's the best clutch scorer, who's the most valuable to his team's offense, etc. This is an attempt to see who was the best pure scorer in the NBA this past season.
A few ground rules:
1) This is not a question of points per game. This is a question of how well a player scores when including all three types of shots: free throws, 2's, and 3's. In this analysis, all three shots are boiled down to a total "points per shot" metric (PPS) that, multiplied by total shots taken, equals points per game.
2) Sample size matters - if a player played 27 games with his current team because he got traded, he's out. 41 games minimum.
3) Only high quantity chuckers count. The minimum cutoff was 18 attempts per game, because at that level, your team is asking you to score every game, and the other team knows you're trying to score every game.
Under that criteria, there were 40 players in the league that fit the bill. And, for reference, all players in the league averaging 10+ points a game averaged 0.79 points per free throw attempt, 0.98 points per 2 point attempt, 1.09 points per 3 point attempt, and 0.95 points per shot overall. So, here's a look at the best scorers from 2010-2011...
| | POINTS PER SHOT | | | ATTEMPTS PER GAME | | POINTS PER GAME | | | ||||
| | 0.789 | 0.984 | 1.088 | 0.953 | | | | | | | | |
Rank | Player | FT | 2P | 3P | TOT | FT | 2P | 3P | TOTAL | FT | 2P | 3P | TOT |
1 | Dirk Nowitzki | 0.892 | 1.076 | 1.179 | 1.036 | 6.07 | 13.85 | 2.30 | 22.22 | 5.41 | 14.90 | 2.71 | 23.03 |
2 | Paul Pierce | 0.860 | 1.094 | 1.121 | 1.028 | 5.61 | 9.05 | 3.71 | 18.38 | 4.83 | 9.90 | 4.16 | 18.89 |
3 | Pau Gasol | 0.823 | 1.060 | 1.000 | 0.994 | 5.24 | 13.62 | 0.04 | 18.90 | 4.32 | 14.44 | 0.04 | 18.79 |
4 | LeBron James | 0.759 | 1.104 | 0.989 | 0.983 | 8.39 | 15.27 | 3.53 | 27.19 | 6.37 | 16.86 | 3.49 | 26.72 |
5 | Kevin Durant | 0.880 | 1.007 | 1.051 | 0.977 | 8.65 | 14.41 | 5.31 | 28.37 | 7.62 | 14.51 | 5.58 | 27.71 |
6 | Kevin Martin | 0.888 | 0.933 | 1.150 | 0.969 | 8.36 | 10.10 | 5.74 | 24.20 | 7.43 | 9.43 | 6.60 | 23.45 |
7 | Kevin Love | 0.850 | 0.967 | 1.251 | 0.968 | 6.84 | 11.16 | 2.89 | 20.89 | 5.81 | 10.79 | 3.62 | 20.22 |
8 | David West | 0.807 | 1.020 | 0.667 | 0.967 | 4.67 | 14.73 | 0.13 | 19.53 | 3.77 | 15.03 | 0.09 | 18.89 |
9 | Rudy Gay | 0.805 | 0.971 | 1.188 | 0.963 | 4.46 | 13.43 | 2.67 | 20.56 | 3.59 | 13.04 | 3.17 | 19.80 |
10 | Eric Gordon | 0.825 | 0.976 | 1.093 | 0.961 | 6.21 | 11.75 | 5.20 | 23.16 | 5.13 | 11.46 | 5.68 | 22.27 |
11 | Luol Deng | 0.753 | 1.012 | 1.036 | 0.959 | 4.10 | 10.02 | 4.06 | 18.18 | 3.09 | 10.15 | 4.21 | 17.44 |
12 | Nick Young | 0.816 | 0.925 | 1.162 | 0.959 | 3.56 | 10.38 | 4.23 | 18.17 | 2.91 | 9.59 | 4.92 | 17.42 |
13 | Dwyane Wade | 0.758 | 1.068 | 0.917 | 0.953 | 8.58 | 15.50 | 2.71 | 26.79 | 6.50 | 16.55 | 2.49 | 25.54 |
14 | Luis Scola | 0.738 | 1.011 | 0.000 | 0.953 | 3.92 | 15.22 | 0.04 | 19.18 | 2.89 | 15.38 | 0.00 | 18.27 |
15 | LaMarcus Aldridge | 0.791 | 1.010 | 0.522 | 0.952 | 5.48 | 17.19 | 0.28 | 22.95 | 4.33 | 17.36 | 0.15 | 21.84 |
16 | Al Jefferson | 0.761 | 0.992 | 0.000 | 0.950 | 3.52 | 16.09 | 0.00 | 19.61 | 2.68 | 15.95 | 0.00 | 18.63 |
17 | Zach Randolph | 0.758 | 1.031 | 0.558 | 0.949 | 5.28 | 15.27 | 0.57 | 21.12 | 4.00 | 15.73 | 0.32 | 20.05 |
18 | Carlos Boozer | 0.701 | 1.020 | 0.000 | 0.949 | 4.14 | 14.32 | 0.00 | 18.46 | 2.90 | 14.61 | 0.00 | 17.51 |
19 | Amar'e Stoudemire | 0.792 | 1.006 | 1.304 | 0.948 | 7.65 | 18.71 | 0.29 | 26.65 | 6.06 | 18.82 | 0.38 | 25.27 |
20 | Monta Ellis | 0.789 | 0.956 | 1.084 | 0.945 | 5.39 | 15.40 | 4.74 | 25.53 | 4.25 | 14.73 | 5.14 | 24.11 |
21 | Deron Williams | 0.845 | 0.982 | 0.994 | 0.944 | 6.34 | 10.12 | 4.88 | 21.34 | 5.35 | 9.94 | 4.85 | 20.14 |
22 | Chris Bosh | 0.815 | 1.005 | 0.720 | 0.942 | 6.12 | 13.39 | 0.32 | 19.83 | 4.99 | 13.45 | 0.23 | 18.68 |
23 | Derrick Rose | 0.858 | 0.962 | 0.997 | 0.941 | 6.85 | 14.96 | 4.75 | 26.57 | 5.88 | 14.40 | 4.74 | 25.01 |
24 | Danny Granger | 0.848 | 0.886 | 1.157 | 0.940 | 5.90 | 10.80 | 5.15 | 21.85 | 5.00 | 9.57 | 5.96 | 20.53 |
25 | Kobe Bryant | 0.828 | 0.974 | 0.969 | 0.935 | 7.11 | 15.65 | 4.34 | 27.10 | 5.89 | 15.24 | 4.21 | 25.34 |
26 | Carmelo Anthony | 0.838 | 0.941 | 1.135 | 0.935 | 7.86 | 16.26 | 3.26 | 27.38 | 6.58 | 15.30 | 3.70 | 25.58 |
27 | Joe Johnson | 0.802 | 0.987 | 0.890 | 0.934 | 3.38 | 11.96 | 4.17 | 19.50 | 2.71 | 11.81 | 3.71 | 18.22 |
28 | Brook Lopez | 0.787 | 0.985 | 0.000 | 0.930 | 5.96 | 15.95 | 0.01 | 21.93 | 4.70 | 15.71 | 0.00 | 20.40 |
29 | Andrea Bargnani | 0.820 | 0.943 | 1.036 | 0.928 | 5.30 | 14.39 | 3.38 | 23.08 | 4.35 | 13.58 | 3.50 | 21.42 |
30 | Michael Beasley | 0.753 | 0.926 | 1.098 | 0.912 | 3.99 | 14.82 | 2.25 | 21.05 | 3.00 | 13.73 | 2.47 | 19.19 |
31 | Dwight Howard | 0.596 | 1.194 | 0.000 | 0.910 | 11.74 | 13.29 | 0.09 | 25.13 | 7.00 | 15.87 | 0.00 | 22.87 |
32 | Antawn Jamison | 0.731 | 0.923 | 1.038 | 0.910 | 4.18 | 10.95 | 4.70 | 19.82 | 3.05 | 10.11 | 4.88 | 18.04 |
33 | Stephen Jackson | 0.816 | 0.897 | 1.011 | 0.909 | 4.55 | 10.45 | 5.36 | 20.36 | 3.72 | 9.37 | 5.42 | 18.51 |
34 | DeMar DeRozan | 0.813 | 0.969 | 0.288 | 0.906 | 4.90 | 13.44 | 0.63 | 18.98 | 3.99 | 13.02 | 0.18 | 17.20 |
35 | Blake Griffin | 0.642 | 1.019 | 0.875 | 0.891 | 8.48 | 16.49 | 0.29 | 25.26 | 5.44 | 16.80 | 0.26 | 22.50 |
36 | Russell Westbrook | 0.842 | 0.901 | 0.990 | 0.887 | 7.70 | 15.70 | 1.26 | 24.65 | 6.48 | 14.15 | 1.24 | 21.87 |
37 | Brandon Jennings | 0.809 | 0.844 | 0.970 | 0.869 | 3.90 | 9.89 | 4.81 | 18.60 | 3.16 | 8.35 | 4.67 | 16.17 |
38 | Andray Blatche | 0.777 | 0.899 | 0.667 | 0.868 | 4.42 | 14.67 | 0.28 | 19.38 | 3.44 | 13.19 | 0.19 | 16.81 |
39 | Tyreke Evans | 0.771 | 0.864 | 0.872 | 0.844 | 4.67 | 13.77 | 2.60 | 21.04 | 3.60 | 11.89 | 2.26 | 17.75 |
40 | John Wall | 0.766 | 0.849 | 0.887 | 0.829 | 5.70 | 12.42 | 1.67 | 19.78 | 4.36 | 10.55 | 1.48 | 16.39 |
First, a little credit where credit is due:
- Dirk (1.04 PPS, #1): frighteningly efficient from every conceivable shot on the floor, and tops the list despite shooting far fewer 3's than I would have thought. It's too bad that Dallas couldn't have given him a real shot at a title this year by trading at the deadline for a hard-nosed 3 (I doubt the Mavs back down from the Lakers a few weeks ago with Stephen Jackson on their team).
- Paul Pierce (1.03 PPS, #2): probably the most impressive entry on the list... being shorter, slower, and less explosive than virtually every small forward he matched up with, his efficiency, particularly on 2's, is hard to believe. Thankfully, the Celtics willingly traded its identity away, and none of us have to endure another wheelchair game in the Finals. As if a Rondo/Jeff Green/Glen Davis core has any hope of contending in 3 years without a major trade. Hope there are ex-Celtic GM's around in 2014.
- Pau Gasol (0.99 PPS, #3): his production despite the complete lack of 3 point attempts underscores the fact that, in crunch time, Kobe is ignoring a truly phenomenal scorer when he goes into hero mode.
- Kevin Love (0.97 PPS, #7): He shoots more 3's than any 4/5 on the list, but when you apparently shoot the long ball like Steph Curry, I guess you're doing the right thing. Unless you defend like Steph Curry too, in which case, well...
The bottom of this list, however, is more interesting:
- Dwight Howard (0.91 PPS, #31): I'm probably as big a fan as anyone (my MVP choice), but if Derrick Rose can come back from the summer with a 3 pointer, Dwight HAS to come back hitting free throws next fall. If he was just an average free throw shooter, that's almost 2 extra points per game, and a vastly more effective clutch time offense for the Magic. By the way, Derrick Rose developing a respectable outside shot has ruined every talented star's excuse for wasted summers... "what, you can't learn to do something new? I mean, Derrick did it."
- Blake Griffin (0.89 PPS, #35): A better "rookie" season than anyone could have reasonably expected, but the bar is now higher as a result for Year 2. Phenomenal dunker, but why is he less efficient on 2's than supposed jump shooter Lamarcus Aldridge? Also, 8.5 free throws a game is a number that's only going up from here, so free throw percentage needs to move up significantly.
- Russell Westbrook (0.89 PPS, #36): considering his reputation as primarily a transition player and at the rim finisher, how did he fare so poorly on 2 point attempts?
Before I get accused of omitting the obvious, when adding in the work of players traded in midseason, I have one expected footnote, and one less obvious:
- Carmelo Anthony, the New York Knick version, would have rated as the #5 scorer on the list (0.982 PPS)... another impressive percentage for 2's, but given his post up abilities relative to, say, Paul Pierce, his efficiency is far less surprising.
- Marcus Thornton, a 2nd year, 2nd round pick who was traded from New Orleans to Sacramento midseason for a reported allergic reaction to playing defense, scored at a whopping 0.971 PPS, on 21 shots per game, with the Kings. If all players regardless of games played were included, he'd have the #7 mark, topped only by Dirk, Pierce, Gasol, Lebron, Carmelo NYK, and Durant. Seems fluky, but during his rookie year in New Orleans, he scored at a 0.969 PPS rate on 14.5 shots per game. An increase in shots with no drop-off in efficiency? Even while going from playing next to Chris Paul/Darren Collison to Beno Udrih/Tyreke Evans? Wow. Coming off a $760k salary, and with the Kings in dire financial straits (and married to Tyreke Evans), any team with cap room and a need to add scoring and floor spacing would be crazy not to offer Marcus a 3 year, $10mm deal. Or, put another way... THE CHARLOTTE BOBCATS WOULD BE CRAZY NOT TO OFFER HIM A 3 YR, $10MM DEAL.
In sum, as you spend the next 2-4 weeks being bombarded with people saying how incredible a scorer Kevin Durant is, remember... he's good, but he's not the best. Not this year. That title goes to Dirk.
(Also: before the playoffs officially start, my pick: the Heat. We will never know what happened in Game 5 of the Cleveland-Boston series last year, but Lebron was a playoff juggernaut before that game. Now, he's madder, with Wade as the closer? Despite hopes that this would be the last non-Heat title for the next few years, we may not be that lucky.)